Paxman Takes On Peak Oil And Trash's Bp's Statistical Reveue

[smiffy1967]

Forget house prices, they are heading down big time, get a mortgage - are you crazy

watch this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00sqc2j/Newsnight_09_06_2010/

Peak Oil is on the doorstep

[Once in a lifetime]

Worth watching, don't be put off by 50 minute indicator. 17 minutes debate on oil is at the beginning.

I've lost a lot of confidence in Obama, he truly has shown to be a lesser politian, his handling

of this disaster (political brownie points) will take the USA into an oil price world that the rest of us pay.

...and America can't afford to pay the same price for oil as everyone else.

Edited June 10, 2010 by Plan B

[Guest Steve Cook]

To be honest, I'm getting worried by the growing chatter in the mainstream media about peak oil. This can only mean that the crisis of supply is rapidly reaching a point where it can be no longer papered over with QE, borrowing, political obfuscation etc.

When the full reality of what is coming finally bores its way into the brains of the average citizen, all hell will break out.

I'm not f*cking ready yet...

[Minos]

To be honest, I'm getting worried by the growing chatter in the mainstream media about peak oil. This can only mean that the crisis of supply is rapidly reaching a point where it can be no longer papered over with QE, borrowing, political obfuscation etc.

When the full reality of what is coming finally bores its way into the brains of the average citizen, all hell will break out.

I'm not f*cking ready yet...

Unless you've got yourself a little deserted island, you ain't never gonna be ready. Strangely, the more they mention it, the more I start to doubt it's true.

[AvidFan]

They're just getting the masses ready for the idea of peak oil. Management of expectations and all that. Nothing fixes a depression like a commodity price spike. It's like war, but without the war.

Edited June 10, 2010 by AvidFan

[smiffy1967]

To be honest, I'm getting worried by the growing chatter in the mainstream media about peak oil. This can only mean that the crisis of supply is rapidly reaching a point where it can be no longer papered over with QE, borrowing, political obfuscation etc.

When the full reality of what is coming finally bores its way into the brains of the average citizen, all hell will break out.

I'm not f*cking ready yet...

I share your concerns and agree 100% with your views as above

I am also not ready, i have two of six raised veg beds ready for growing. I have my chicken coup but no chickens and i plan to install a multi fuel burning stove this winter.

I plan to plant some fruit trees soon as well.

Worst case situation when it comes, at least i will have some home grown veg and plenty of eggs to eat.

[smiffy1967]

Unless you've got yourself a little deserted island, you ain't never gonna be ready. Strangely, the more they mention it, the more I start to doubt it's true.

The more they mention what? Peak oil

Of course it is true, north sea ounce a swing producer falling at what? 19% YOY

Mexico cantarell field falling at 19% YOY

They will soon be empty, whom is going to fill the void? Saudi Arabia no longer the worlds biggest producer of oil - means they are past peak. Tar sands and shale going to save us? LOL not a chance

[mdman]

Unless you've got yourself a little deserted island, you ain't never gonna be ready. Strangely, the more they mention it, the more I start to doubt it's true.

Yep.

Weren't we all scared to death of peak oil in the 1970s as well?

Anyway they did sound stupid desperately trying to compare peak oil to 'peak credit'. On the basis that Paxman 'didn't see it coming', does that mean we should all panic about anything and everything we don't fully understand?

[tomwatkins]

The more they mention what? Peak oil

Of course it is true, north sea ounce a swing producer falling at what? 19% YOY

Mexico cantarell field falling at 19% YOY

They will soon be empty, whom is going to fill the void? Saudi Arabia no longer the worlds biggest producer of oil - means they are past peak. Tar sands and shale going to save us? LOL not a chance

Boon Pickens is a smart oil guy and his agenda is to wean the US off Mid East oil. "We" (the US) can do this quite easiliy believe it or not and won't cost much either. In fact it will be feckin cheap. His money is on natural gas which (in the US) could power every automobile for hundreds of years. Personally I am glad that the BP incident happened. In NY all municipal vehicles and taxis use natural gas. They can shove the black stuff up their @ss as far as I am concerned. I run my vehicle on waste cooking oil. Pretty feckin cheap it is as well. BTW I am in the industry so don't smirk at tar sands/shale. New technology comes on all the time (as with coal as well).

[JimDiGritz]

Someone will be along soon to debunk Peak Oil by explaining that it is infinite, being created abiogenically and abiotically and that Jesus rode on a dinosaur.

[blankster]

Someone will be along soon to debunk Peak Oil by explaining that it is infinite, being created abiogenically and abiotically and that Jesus rode on a dinosaur.

I find you see this sort of opinion quite a bit on car forums.

One well known motoring journalist* when asked about the environment, pollution etc., just said 'I simply don't care' .

*This wasn't THE well-known motoring journalist that probably first comes to mind, by the way, but another one.

[Ah-so]

I share your concerns and agree 100% with your views as above

I am also not ready, i have two of six raised veg beds ready for growing. I have my chicken coup but no chickens and i plan to install a multi fuel burning stove this winter.

I plan to plant some fruit trees soon as well.

Worst case situation when it comes, at least i will have some home grown veg and plenty of eggs to eat.

I think it would be more sensible to by petrol by the barrel-load and store it rather than raise a chicken.

[LuckyOne]

To be honest, I'm getting worried by the growing chatter in the mainstream media about peak oil. This can only mean that the crisis of supply is rapidly reaching a point where it can be no longer papered over with QE, borrowing, political obfuscation etc.

When the full reality of what is coming finally bores its way into the brains of the average citizen, all hell will break out.

I'm not f*cking ready yet...

I always wonder about the "cover of Time Magazine curse".

The program last night suggested that we will run out of oil in 46 years or less.

Given the "cover of Time Magazine curse", I expect that the real date is more likely to be twice as far in the future (92 years) than it is to be half as far in the future (23 years).

This opinion is based on headline risk rather than any scientific notion whatsoever.

[smiffy1967]

I always wonder about the "cover of Time Magazine curse".

The program last night suggested that we will run out of oil in 46 years or less.

Given the "cover of Time Magazine curse", I expect that the real date is more likely to be twice as far in the future (92 years) than it is to be half as far in the future (23 years).

This opinion is based on headline risk rather than any scientific notion whatsoever.

we will never ever run out of oil ever! It just wont be worth extracting thats all.

100 years ago, 1 barrel of oil extracted 100 barrels (in energy terms) today 1 barrel extracts 11 barrels or maybe less.

when we get to 1 for 1 it wont be worth it, hence why we will never run out of oil. Affordable oil - well, we will be out of it in a year or 2, maybe 3 if lucky

The game is up, the party is well and truly over - i dont know why people like me and Mr. cook bother, you all go out and get those houses you all want, you better make sure it is a cash purchase

[LuckyOne]

we will never ever run out of oil ever! It just wont be worth extracting thats all.

100 years ago, 1 barrel of oil extracted 100 barrels (in energy terms) today 1 barrel extracts 11 barrels or maybe less.

when we get to 1 for 1 it wont be worth it, hence why we will never run out of oil. Affordable oil - well, we will be out of it in a year or 2, maybe 3 if lucky

The game is up, the party is well and truly over - i dont know why people like me and Mr. cook bother, you all go out and get those houses you all want, you better make sure it is a cash purchase

I don't disagree with your view of where we end up, only the timing.

The nat gas required to extract crude from the tar sands is pretty scary. I think that the crude price required to break even on tar sands oil is in the region of $65 a barrel with nat gas at $5 per mmbtu.

I expect nat gas to be bid up versus crude because of the increasing reliance on nat gas in the extraction (if that is the right word) of crude as well as the substition effect (away from crude to nat gas, especially in the US).

While people like Chevron are doing a lot of work to convert other more plentiful fossil fuels (coal) into diesel (based on German WWII technology improved upon by Sasol), I think that the limits of the cracking process will mean that this will not be a viable medium term solution for the needs that are satified by the rest of the barrel.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

I always wonder about the "cover of Time Magazine curse".

The program last night suggested that we will run out of oil in 46 years or less.

Given the "cover of Time Magazine curse", I expect that the real date is more likely to be twice as far in the future (92 years) than it is to be half as far in the future (23 years).

This opinion is based on headline risk rather than any scientific notion whatsoever.

peak oils not something i immediately worry about compared to everything else out there, from what i can see my money would be on it trading below 10 dollars a barrel before it trades above 140 again so its not an immediate concern

[Yoss]

They're just getting the masses ready for the idea of peak oil. Management of expectations and all that. Nothing fixes a depression like a commodity price spike. It's like war, but without the war.

+1.... seems they have more than they can deal with in the Gulf of Mexico... it literally won't stop flooding out the ground.

[LuckyOne]

peak oils not something i immediately worry about compared to everything else out there, from what i can see my money would be on it trading below 10 dollars a barrel before it trades above 140 again so its not an immediate concern

Sounds like there is an options spread trade that you could do. Sell $140 calls and buy $20 puts and generate a bit of premium depending on how vol skews are trading.

My view is that the downside is a bit more limited due to the energy costs of extracting marginal barrels of crude.

The level of demand collapse required to get us to $10 will make house prices the least of our problems.

[smiffy1967]

+1.... seems they have more than they can deal with in the Gulf of Mexico... it literally won't stop flooding out the ground.

Whats flooding out the ocean floor in the GOM is a puddle in geological terms. About enough oil to keep the world turning for a few weeks maybe months

When you consider, we have lost the north sea and have become net importer when we used to be an oil exporter and the same almost goes for Mexico, where you gonna find those extra barrels? whats left is purley puddles - all the biggest finds are gone

Game over - welcome to the end of the oil age - the sooner our leaders wake up to the fact the better

The economy cannot grow without cheap abundant energy - The game is over

[smiffy1967]

Sounds like there is an options spread trade that you could do. Sell $140 calls and buy $20 puts and generate a bit of premium depending on how vol skews are trading.

My view is that the downside is a bit more limited due to the energy costs of extracting marginal barrels of crude.

The level of demand collapse required to get us to $10 will make house prices the least of our problems.

LOL

agree 100%

The level of demand collapse required to get us to $10 will make house prices the least of our problems.

[Yoss]

Whats flooding out the ocean floor in the GOM is a puddle in geological terms. About enough oil to keep the world turning for a few weeks maybe months

When you consider, we have lost the north sea and have become net importer when we used to be an oil exporter and the same almost goes for Mexico, where you gonna find those extra barrels? whats left is purley puddles - all the biggest finds are gone

Game over - welcome to the end of the oil age - the sooner our leaders wake up to the fact the better

The economy cannot grow without cheap abundant energy - The game is over

I think we may be much further down the nuclear alternative path than most think. I know that's not all the issues covered, but the main one (Keeping the lights on) is....albeit with some rather un-green side effects.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Sounds like there is an options spread trade that you could do. Sell $140 calls and buy $20 puts and generate a bit of premium depending on how vol skews are trading.

My view is that the downside is a bit more limited due to the energy costs of extracting marginal barrels of crude.

The level of demand collapse required to get us to $10 will make house prices the least of our problems.

yep, which is pretty much why i dont think oil or house prices are the most important issue, at least not for the next five years

Edited June 10, 2010 by Tamara De Lempicka

[Chest Rockwell]

Whats flooding out the ocean floor in the GOM is a puddle in geological terms. About enough oil to keep the world turning for a few weeks maybe months

When you consider, we have lost the north sea and have become net importer when we used to be an oil exporter and the same almost goes for Mexico, where you gonna find those extra barrels? whats left is purley puddles - all the biggest finds are gone

LOL

[Andy_K]

The economy cannot grow without cheap abundant energy - The game is over

Agreed. For us, at least. It only takes a very small shortfall in the global oil supply to send prices through the roof. It only takes a short period of sky high prices for importing nations to have more petrodollars than they know what to do with. What happens to the importing nations at that point does not bear thinking about...

Edited June 10, 2010 by Andy_K

[LuckyOne]

Agreed. For us, at least. It only takes a very small shortfall in the global oil supply to send prices through the roof. It only takes a short period of sky high prices for importing nations to have more petrodollars than they know what to do with. What happens to the importing nations at that point does not bear thinking about...

It could be argued that the recycling of excess savings (either internally or cross border with large trade surplus nations) is the root cause of many of our financial crises which tend to be followed without fail by sovereign debt crises.

Edited June 10, 2010 by LuckyOne