Pro- H P I Lobby Been At Work?

[Realistbear]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7144906.ece

Cameron signalled a softening of his stance on capital gains tax, which is due to go up this month from 18% to nearly 40% to help pay for the Lib Dem aim of taking the low-paid out of income tax.

The HPI lobby: "Whatever you do Dave, do not stop HPI or our country will be utterly ruined--we are addicted to inflation in our largest business sector--BTL, house flipping and multiple ownership."

The reality is that even without a rise in CGT the rest of the measures that will be necessary will bring the market back to reality twith a thump. IMO we are still on for 20% down by Crimbo this year (YOY that is).

[plummet expert]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7144906.ece

Cameron signalled a softening of his stance on capital gains tax, which is due to go up this month from 18% to nearly 40% to help pay for the Lib Dem aim of taking the low-paid out of income tax.

The HPI lobby: "Whatever you do Dave, do not stop HPI or our country will be utterly ruined--we are addicted to inflation in our largest business sector--BTL, house flipping and multiple ownership."

The reality is that even without a rise in CGT the rest of the measures that will be necessary will bring the market back to reality twith a thump. IMO we are still on for 20% down by Crimbo this year (YOY that is).

Speaking to friends last night. The consensus is that there is a high possibility the house market has stalled very suddenly in recent weeks. It has seemed to here in sussex. Most expecting it to fall again and little confidence in the economic outlook due to necessary cuts.

[Realistbear]

Speaking to friends last night. The consensus is that there is a high possibility the house market has stalled very suddenly in recent weeks. It has seemed to here in sussex. Most expecting it to fall again and little confidence in the economic outlook due to necessary cuts.

Your friends are right. I live in E Sussex and have 3 friends who are trying to sell locally (Brighton East area) . Offer fell through on one last week as the buyer's lenders had changed the criteria for the loan. The other two are sitting there with no action other than a low-ball offer more than 100k below asking. It has been a sudden stop. The wreck is about to resume.

[AskFrank]

The reality is that even without a rise in CGT the rest of the measures that will be necessary will bring the market back to reality twith a thump. IMO we are still on for 20% down by Crimbo this year (YOY that is).

Even without a rise in CGT, this has still rumbled a lot of investors and I think anyone who owns a second home may be putting thier indulgences into perspective and getting out whilst they still can! People are now aware, things CAN change. The government CAN change the rules whenever they so like!

[Pent Up]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7144906.ece

Cameron signalled a softening of his stance on capital gains tax, which is due to go up this month from 18% to nearly 40% to help pay for the Lib Dem aim of taking the low-paid out of income tax.

The HPI lobby: "Whatever you do Dave, do not stop HPI or our country will be utterly ruined--we are addicted to inflation in our largest business sector--BTL, house flipping and multiple ownership."

The reality is that even without a rise in CGT the rest of the measures that will be necessary will bring the market back to reality twith a thump. IMO we are still on for 20% down by Crimbo this year (YOY that is).

in Essex I have been seeing a steady increases in stock for three months. Now 25% more properties on the market. So far CGT announcements have had no effect. It would be nice for them to stick to their word and up it from April 2011 which will speed things up a bit. But even without it the only way is down.

Also the MSM seem to be getting the picture too. Three months ago it was 'property market to surge post election' then 'signs the market rises may be slowing' then 'more signs the market is slowing' now 'signs the market is stagnating' I know how of one person who is now planning to STR because of the negative news (and he's finding it hard getting a mortgage)

All looking good at the moment IMO.

[ingermany]

Even without a rise in CGT, this has still rumbled a lot of investors and I think anyone who owns a second home may be putting thier indulgences into perspective and getting out whilst they still can! People are now aware, things CAN change. The government CAN change the rules whenever they so like!

Yes, I was thinking the same thing. The Government's capricious decision to rescue borrowers using public money in 2008-9 was celebrated by home owners and the Daily Express et al. However, they should have realised that this sort of tampering distorts the market and leaves the way open for further manipulation at the whim of central Govt.............................enter the new CGT rules, or if not CGT then the ongoing insecurity of knowing that prices can be pushed up or down by government without investors being able to predict or influence what happens.

[Alfie Moon]

I've submitted a comment & may submit more. I hope others are also submitting comments.

It's a great pity we can't get some kind of petition going (I would suggest signatures & collections of copies of Readers Comments from web based Newspaper Articles) to be submitted to the PM's Office and George Osbourne. This would be particularly effective if the number of signatures met the number David Cameron set for the Government Web page they are planning to set up for the public to raise issues - didn't Cameron say that the Government would guarantee Parliamentry debate/action if the number of people raising concerns about a particular issue or Act of law met a certain threshold number? If this number was met then it would be very difficult for the Government to ignore such a petition.

[tomwatkins]

I've submitted a comment & may submit more. I hope others are also submitting comments.

It's a great pity we can't get some kind of petition going (I would suggest signatures & collections of copies of Readers Comments from web based Newspaper Articles) to be submitted to the PM's Office and George Osbourne. This would be particularly effective if the number of signatures met the number David Cameron set for the Government Web page they are planning to set up for the public to raise issues - didn't Cameron say that the Government would guarantee Parliamentry debate/action if the number of people raising concerns about a particular issue or Act of law met a certain threshold number? If this number was met then it would be very difficult for the Government to ignore such a petition.

What price GBP/USD if they retreat from a significant CGT increase?

[Executive Sadman]

Its a crazy state of affairs.

Conservatives campaigning to keep Liebours flat rate of 18%

Libdems campaigning to bring back Lawsons 1988-2008 rates linked to income tax.

Liebours new big wigs happy to pretend the last 13 years didnt happen and pretend theyre the party of 1970 again.

[uncle_monty]

As I stated on a related thread today, the Con-Libs need every single penny. If not CGT (at least £5bn in revenue), then what other areas are there?

Landlords have got a big target painted on them. It's not like they can pull the hedgie trick of threatening to go to Switzerland!

I think it will take at least another 6 months for the general public to begin to realise how squarely in the poo we are.

I am verging on optimism with regards to the forthcoming emergency budget. Cameron is making some good noises which suggest he wants to get a big chunk of the band news out quick and pin it on Brown. 22 June, then the comprehensive spending review are key IMO. Negative HPI (YoY) should help things along.

Monty

PS

Out on a limb here, but I feel in my water that there may well be a decent long-term house buying opportunity towards the end of next year i.e. 25-30% off peak on selected homes. I'm planning accordingly.

[pete.hpc]

If Cameron goes against the wishes of the Lib Dems here, I think it signals we could well be back at the polls by Autumn

[Kazuya]

If Cameron goes against the wishes of the Lib Dems here, I think it signals we could well be back at the polls by Autumn

With a majority Labour government again

[Si1]

If Cameron goes against the wishes of the Lib Dems here, I think it signals we could well be back at the polls by Autumn

no. it's a coalition. not an alliance. geddit?

[keeprenting]

no. it's a coalition. not an alliance. geddit?

I think you're the one who doesn't "geddit". The Tories have signed a coalition agreement with the Lib Dems, one clause of which requires them to look at ways of increasing CGT on non-business assets to rates which are the same or close to those applied to income tax.

[Guest BetterOffOnBenefits]

With a majority Labour government again

I'm going on welfare if that happens

[pete.hpc]

no. it's a coalition. not an alliance. geddit?

Doesn't matter what you want to call it, if they start squabbling (and all the signs are that there are plenty of flash points already), Labour will begin suggesting that they cannot work together and the calls for an election will get louder and louder

[Si1]

I think you're the one who doesn't "geddit". The Tories have signed a coalition agreement with the Lib Dems, one clause of which requires them to look at ways of increasing CGT on non-business assets to rates which are the same or close to those applied to income tax.

yes. and?

[Si1]

Doesn't matter what you want to call it, if they start squabbling (and all the signs are that there are plenty of flash points already), Labour will begin suggesting that they cannot work together and the calls for an election will get louder and louder

Labour already have started saying that they can't work together

and so what?