The Future Is Unemployment

[ken_ichikawa]

You're just an idealistic dreamer Ken.

Isn't the counter to this that the end of cheap energy will mean that automation unwinds as being too expensive? The countryside used to be full of people planting, harvesting and doing by hand the 101 things that are now done by tractors and machines.

Once our current batch of cheap energy runs out the not economically viable energy sources will come on tap. Some technocrats on here for example suggest covering useless bits of land like Saharan Africa, the Empty quarter in Saudi, Gobi and a massive belt in the USA with heliostat solar furnaces.

These things will initially require a massive investment however because there is no need for any fuel to be burnt, i.e. you just have to wash the mirrors and replace the pumps now and again removing the need to ship pulverise and burn and clean coal emissions, energy will be even cheaper.

[ken_ichikawa]

Construction/home improvement will be one of the last to be automated. There has been a mass migration to the building trades as other jobs have gradually reduced over the last few decades.

New construction might be somewhat limited as the mass migration of workers into this area has meant an oversupply in some areas of the developed world. But home improvement like new cabinets, to installing a new fireplace seems to have legs and I think it can absorb some of the surplus labour being thrown off from elsewhere.

Some of the automation is from durability improvements though which can have an impact. For example if a new roofing material and coating can last 25 years instead of 15 years.. that has a big impact on the number of people needed as roofers.

In time even things like putting in new ducting can be automated. But we're talking a very difficult task, because that would take robots with human level intelligence and human level dexterity and strength.

Mass standardisation, a revolution like shipping container standardisation, where the elites live in massive archologies (like the shadow run plot) and everything is standardised so the plumbing, the electrical sockets everything is in the same place in every flat, so a Robot can wheel in your new appliance and install it as everyflat is identical .

The fanling council estate in Hong Kong has 2 designs for the 9000 flats one corner design and one middle design,

[ken_ichikawa]

So the Luddites were right all along, eh?

This process of automation has been happening for at least the last 250 years. All that it has meant is a general rise in living standards and more secure employment for the majority of people. As jobs become automated out of existence other opportunities emerge.

Automation and robotics doesn't affect every sector, either. I'd love to know how a computer is going to build you an extension, install a central heating system, or fit you a new kitchen.

Standardisation of all things in the future as the future of housing is those massive Y shaped tower blocks in Fan Ling Hong Kong. There are 2 different layouts for the flats there, one for the end flats and one for the middle flats. When the plumbing is identical, and the shapes and sizes are identical

[Frank Hovis]

Once our current batch of cheap energy runs out the not economically viable energy sources will come on tap. Some technocrats on here for example suggest covering useless bits of land like Saharan Africa, the Empty quarter in Saudi, Gobi and a massive belt in the USA with heliostat solar furnaces.

These things will initially require a massive investment however because there is no need for any fuel to be burnt, i.e. you just have to wash the mirrors and replace the pumps now and again removing the need to ship pulverise and burn and clean coal emissions, energy will be even cheaper.

Firstly how viable is that actually? It will cost loads in installation and maintenance. Then you have to move the electricity around to where it's actually wanted and be able to store it on a major scale (for when it's dark). Also, bar the US, these are the dodgiest parts of the world. Terrorists, failed states. Want to get some aid? Smash a few solar panels or short out a main cable.

Secondly that has to be converted into portable energy to do what oil does now - land and sea transport, agricultural, portable machinery for mines / quarries. Which means batteries. Heavy, inefficient, environment destroying for mineral extraction (especially lithium) and for disposal.

I am sure your London eco-type with their G Whizz death machine sees that as a panacea, it looks like pie in the sky to me.

[aa3]

Standardisation of all things in the future as the future of housing is those massive Y shaped tower blocks in Fan Ling Hong Kong. There are 2 different layouts for the flats there, one for the end flats and one for the middle flats. When the plumbing is identical, and the shapes and sizes are identical

Sounds awesome.. it always amazes me how we standardize the production of so many things.. yet the biggest purchase the house we do not! Imagine the terrible quality problems if cars were custom made by hand? Instead of the mass engineering marvels of every piece that they are?

In the USA they are going a ways to standardization, like 10,000 unit housing developments. And they do orders like 40,000 toilets at once to bring down costs. And the construction works like a machine with the different crews moving from one unit to the next.

[ken_ichikawa]

Firstly how viable is that actually? It will cost loads in installation and maintenance. Then you have to move the electricity around to where it's actually wanted and be able to store it on a major scale (for when it's dark). Also, bar the US, these are the dodgiest parts of the world. Terrorists, failed states. Want to get some aid? Smash a few solar panels or short out a main cable.

No idea, but the problem of moving energy around is resolved by USN technology where jet fuel can be made using water and air.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/03/31/darpa_portable_fuel_reactors/

You hook up the massive solar grid in the empty bits of saudi to electrolyse water to produce hydrogen you then use the USN tech to turn it into JP8 jet fuel. This fuel gets put into already existing oil terminals which are modified to accept JP8 fuel and you continue as before.

The tankers arrive in the UK/US/Europe as normal carrying Jp8 jetfuel which has another advantage of not being needed to be refined and cracked into petrol. And Nato engines anyway are designed to run on jetfuel or diesel so the portable energy you envisage is not batteries but synthetic diesel which means business as usual.

You go to your petrol station to fill up 6* petrol (which is not really petrol) and drive around as usual.

Because you don't need to refine the fuel anymore you can fire all the refinery workers, and because you don't need blokes underground digging out coal you can fire all of those people too. And you can fire all the oil workers too.

Edited May 22, 2010 by ken_ichikawa

[Frank Hovis]

No idea, but the problem of moving energy around is resolved by USN technology where jet fuel can be made using water and air.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/03/31/darpa_portable_fuel_reactors/

You hook up the massive solar grid in the empty bits of saudi to electrolyse water to produce hydrogen you then use the USN tech to turn it into JP8 jet fuel. This fuel gets put into already existing oil terminals which are modified to accept JP8 fuel and you continue.

The tankers arrive in the UK/US/Europe as normal carrying Jp8 jetfuel which has another advantage of not being needed to be refined and cracked into petrol. And Nato engines anyway are designed to run on jetfuel or diesel so the portable energy you envisage is not batteries but synthetic diesel which means business as usual.

Interesting link Ken. Though I would disagree with the phrase "business as usual". This is one possible replacement for oil but oil is icnredibly cheap, literally pouring out of the pipes through ntaural pressure at Kuwait. All the alternatives cost more.

[Zngland]

Our democratic system caters to the common denominator consequently the

mass realization of the equalisation of standards of living will lead to politicians

favouring unemployment reduction policies. Protectionism -imho in the short term.

Whatever happens i think that the west will not give away it's wealth with a wimper.

[_w_]

Protectionism -imho in the short term.

Is protectionism at all possible, it's now illegal? The VIs that benefit from offshoring are enormous and still growing.

You look at the finance regulation bill that just passed the US senate and you realise that our democracies are a complete joke. I see no chance in hell that protectionism will return.

[Home_To_Roost]

They wouldn't be able to bring that many people to a battlefield if it was to be limited.

Also, with automation, mechanisation etc. it is probably not enough.

Nah .. too much hassle.... they'll just weigh everyone down with poverty and "austerity measures"

[ken_ichikawa]

Is protectionism at all possible, it's now illegal? The VIs that benefit from offshoring are enormous and still growing.

You look at the finance regulation bill that just passed the US senate and you realise that our democracies are a complete joke. I see no chance in hell that protectionism will return.

Protectionism can exist sometimes, but it requires people to not just look at the bottom line in regards to price and to make concious choices in buying things.

Albeit China is doing this nicely to itself their products are often such low quality (even my dad a commie won't buy made in china after he had 7 tin openers fail on him in a single day) Chinese scooters cars, etc are all horrible quality.

I.e. in Korea there is no protectionism of Korean goods other than artificially keeping their currency low. But in Korea nowhere will sell Japanese products nowhere no Nikon, no Sony, no Honda, No Kawaka,Suzi,Yam etc.

They all buy made in Korea Samsung LG etc drive Korean cars. Because of the hatered which still exists from Japan from Japanese imperialism. A similar thing happens in China China buys Korean goods instead due to the hatered from WWII atrocities Japan completely denies.

British people always look at the bottom line no matter what so any buy british or protectionsm won't work.

I use the UK motorcyle industry as an example of this UK engineering was THE BEST at motocycle technology. Small engineering firms invented the twin spar cradle frame which was so clever as it could take forces in all 3 dimensions.

Honda's best effort of the 1970s was the CBX1100 a 6cylinder monster with a frame which riders could feel flex when they put the power on.

Such engineers took these to British motorcycle firms and were laughed out Japanese firms copied these frames.

Rest is history.

Like Frank Whittle, he made a fantastic device which was ignored for ages, and the commies in the UK government gave the design away for FREE to the USSR and the USA.

[bendy]

most on here know and have a long time that 90% of jobs are just filler.

i guess there are different types of filler though.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

Not sure it's just the low skilled being hit either - I'm seeing massively increasing casualisation across many 'skilled staff' sectors.

http://journal.fibreculture.org/issue5/vanni_tari.html

Btw, February 29 is the day of San Precario, the patron saint of precarious workers

Edited May 22, 2010 by gruffydd

[betterToDo]

Already met him.

He tried to sell me a shitheap of a house :angry:

[scepticus]

A thesis I've promulgated many times here has now been expounded upon in this very good book

The Lights In The Tunnel

does this book consider the counter-automation effect of a drastically rising dependancy ratio?

Contrary to the thesis above, this leads me to believe we can't have enough automation at this prticular juncture.

[Authoritarian]

does this book consider the counter-automation effect of a drastically rising dependancy ratio?

Contrary to the thesis above, this leads me to believe we can't have enough automation at this prticular juncture.

The counter-automation effect of an increased surplus being trapped into the land market is more problematic.

This economic law states that no matter how efficient production becomes, wages will always be kept to a bare minimum due to the competition effect, the increased output is pocketed by the owners of monopolies. In other words the gains of production are used against the productive because it simultaneously raises their costs.

This also worsens the dependency ratio, it's very difficult to raise a family when wages have been inflated away by high house prices.

Edited May 22, 2010 by Chef

[Stars]

most on here know and have a long time that 90% of jobs are just filler.

i guess there are different types of filler though.

It seems the serfs have been told to think of themselves as useless eaters and some haven't the wit to question it.

Edited May 22, 2010 by Stars

[scepticus]

The counter-automation effect of an increased surplus being trapped into the land market is more problematic.

This economic law states that no matter how efficient production becomes, wages will always be kept to a bare minimum due to the competition effect, the increased output is pocketed by the owners of monopolies. In other words the gains of production are used against the productive because it simultaneously raises their costs.

This also worsens the dependency ratio, it's very difficult to raise a family when wages have been inflated away by high house prices.

that is all correct, but high house prices are not a cause, but a symptom.

at some point people here are going to have to realise that high house prices are not at the begining od the chain of cause and effect.

[Stars]

that is all correct, but high house prices are not a cause, but a symptom.

I think chef implied that high house prices are a symptom of a monopoly power in real estate property. People will pay a lot for a monopoly power

Edited May 22, 2010 by Stars

[Injin]

I think chef implied that high house prices are a symptom of a monoply power in real estate property.

Which is a symptom off the socially sanctioned and legalised power of attack.

It's all about the violence.

[aa3]

does this book consider the counter-automation effect of a drastically rising dependancy ratio?

Contrary to the thesis above, this leads me to believe we can't have enough automation at this prticular juncture.

That is having a counter-automation effect indeed. Its just imo the automation trend is so large and powerful that it swamps the change.

Allowing people to retire early on generous pensions is a way of doing the leisure dividend.

[Stars]

Which is a symptom off the socially sanctioned and legalised power of attack.

It's all about the violence.

Agreed. But nobody has found a practical way around this; Either there is some formalised way of attacking (laws / rules of land ownership / possesion) or people do it informaly until it becomes formalised

[Injin]

Agreed. But nobody has found a practical way around this; Either there is some formalised way of attacking (laws / rules of land ownership / possesion) or people do it informaly until it becomes formalised

Oh that's easy.

Anyone you know who attacks, you ditch socially and you tell them why.

[aa3]

Which is a symptom off the socially sanctioned and legalised power of attack.

It's all about the violence.

Everywhere you see inflation its state protected monopolies. Try doing veternary medicine and giving perscriptions for sick pets without the state permitting. Which of course the number of permits are limited below the demands of the marketplace.

Its part of the terrible class society that has developed. People behind state protection are making £100 or even £200 an hour for their work. While people on the free market are being pushed towards minimum wage.. which the only reason they even get that is the state threatening violence to anyone who pays under minimum wage!

[Stars]

Oh that's easy.

Anyone you know who attacks, you ditch socially and you tell them why.

Yes that's easy - it just doesn't address the issue

Edited May 22, 2010 by Stars