cupidstunt Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 I really can't see prices rising much in 2010, but I really can't see them crashing when you've got strong numbers like these! http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/li/2009/nov/lendind.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 I really can't see prices rising much in 2010, but I really can't see them crashing when you've got strong numbers like these! http://www.bankofeng...nov/lendind.pdf approvals. we are the land of broken chains...more approvals= more dissappointment. the papers were full of recovery news but bankers letting the side down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Updated charts. Average mortgage value dipped slightly in November to £137,381. The peak was £148,231 in December 2007. The gap between BBA mortgage approvals and the total recorded by the BoE continues to increase, but we're still way below the peak difference of 56,837 in January 2007. The low was 7,881 in January 2009. In November it was 15,805. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luigi Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Could just be the extra people looking to beat stamp duty deadline, bringing forward some demand from Dec and Jan? Isn't there also a bit of a rush to get in by Xmas, mortgage being sorted some time in November? Could be a slow couple of months now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corevalue Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Seasonally adjusted. How, exactly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fallingbuzzard Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Strong numbers. That made me laugh. I really can't see prices rising much in 2010, but I really can't see them crashing when you've got strong numbers like these! http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/li/2009/nov/lendind.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spivT Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 I really can't see prices rising much in 2010, but I really can't see them crashing when you've got strong numbers like these! http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/li/2009/nov/lendind.pdf well, november was an uncharacteristically mild month. And in theory, there could have been an unusually high number in the first half of the month trying to get in before the stamp duty end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKguy1979 Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 There will always be strong demand for houses as we are an over populated little island. Even with 3 million unemployed there is still a large population of people working and wanting property. In my view the only thing that will bring prices down is when interest rates go up or sterling has a crisis which may or may not happen. Only time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Once in a lifetime Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Can somebody plot this against the Bankers' bonuses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 There will always be strong demand for houses as we are an over populated little island. Even with 3 million unemployed there is still a large population of people working and wanting property. In my view the only thing that will bring prices down is when interest rates go up or sterling has a crisis which may or may not happen. Only time will tell. where are all the working people who havent got houses. Prices are all determined by lending...just check the average loan size against prices and you wont go far wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKguy1979 Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 where are all the working people who havent got houses. Prices are all determined by lending...just check the average loan size against prices and you wont go far wrong. Rent I guess like in parts of europe. I'd love to see the prices come down to a sensible level, like whats happened in the USA and in Ireland. Who knows whats around corner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffk Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 There will always be strong demand for houses as we are an over populated little island. Even with 3 million unemployed there is still a large population of people working and wanting property. In my view the only thing that will bring prices down is when interest rates go up or sterling has a crisis which may or may not happen. Only time will tell. JUST A little homework would of told you...1 million houses for sale on rightmove and There are nearly a million properties lying empty in the UK waiting for someone to come along to turn them into homes again... you have fell for the propaganda http://www.emptyhomes.com/britains_empty_homes.html... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moesasji Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 JUST A little homework would of told you...1 million houses for sale on rightmove and There are nearly a million properties lying empty in the UK waiting for someone to come along to turn them into homes again... you have fell for the propaganda http://www.emptyhomes.com/britains_empty_homes.html *) Fixed the link in the above quote to make things easy for the lazy... Really surprising is that the number of vacant properties is actually increasing year-on-year by about 20.000 properties: see http://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2009-10-15b.292814.h Barbara Follett (Minister of State (the East of England), Regional Affairs; Stevenage, Labour) The following table shows estimates of the number of empty dwellings owned by local authorities, registered social landlords and in the private sector in England in each of the last three years. 2006 2007 2008 Local authority 42,870 40,960 36,940 Registered social landlords 30,170 30,770 29,240 Private enterprise 675,120 691,590 717,840 Total number of vacants 748,160 763,320 784,020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEO72 Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 There will always be strong demand for houses as we are an over populated little island. Even with 3 million unemployed there is still a large population of people working and wanting property. In my view the only thing that will bring prices down is when interest rates go up or sterling has a crisis which may or may not happen. Only time will tell. Yep - just like Japan.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Updated charts. Thanks FT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fallingbuzzard Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 We're 50% less densely populated than Japan, at about the same density as Germany and Netherlands, slightly more than Italy, so maybe there's something else explaining it.... Yep - just like Japan.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wish I could afford one Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 I really can't see prices rising much in 2010, but I really can't see them crashing when you've got strong numbers like these! http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/li/2009/nov/lendind.pdf Personally, I think we could be at the Return to "Normal" phase as I have detailed here http://retirementinvestingtoday.blogspot.com/2010/01/uk-property-market-december-2009-update.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffk Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Personally, I think we could be at the Return to "Normal" phase as I have detailed here http://retirementinvestingtoday.blogspot.com/2010/01/uk-property-market-december-2009-update.html... explain normal? 2007 normal or 1999 normal.........ps i think you are wrong.....................do you not believe in bubbles? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xux42 Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 approvals. we are the land of broken chains...more approvals= more dissappointment. the papers were full of recovery news but bankers letting the side down. +1 What can you tell from approvals? Surely the only indicator of real growth would be sustained increases in completions of mortgages for FTBs and upgraders. All else is noise. Unfortunately the 'people' seem to want the media to spin anything and everything as evidence for HPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wish I could afford one Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 explain normal? 2007 normal or 1999 normal.........ps i think you are wrong.....................do you not believe in bubbles? Have you looked at the link provided where I chart where I think we are in the cycle and explain my thoughts in detail. The charts suggest we may be nearing the end of the dead cat bounce phase (Return to "normal"). I very much believe in bubbles and busts. They've occurred for hundreds of years across many asset classes. Why would then stop occuring now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moesasji Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 (edited) We're 50% less densely populated than Japan, at about the same density as Germany and Netherlands, slightly more than Italy, so maybe there's something else explaining it.... Being Dutch I simply have to comment on this. The population density in the UK is in reality far less than in the Netherlands. The Dutch population density is ~400/km^2 which puts it ahead of Japan (340/km^2) and very far ahead of the UK which has a population density of ~250/km^2! (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density) *) For completeness: last time i saw the Dutch news house-prices were declining steadily even though expensive and houses are of a very high standard in comparison to my experience in the UK. **) For people putting in the argument that a lot of area in the UK is not suitable to build on. If I look around the Bristol area when driving to London (or to Cardiff) there is an awful lot of space next to existing train or road-connections that the Dutch would have used to build towns seeing the problems that exist of unaffordable housing! Edited January 4, 2010 by moesasji Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fallingbuzzard Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 (edited) England is 375/km^2, almost as much as Netherlands! Either way, the argument about the small, overpopulated island is still false when it comes to explaining house price levels versus income Being Dutch I simply have to comment on this. The population density in the UK is in reality far less than in the Netherlands. The Dutch population density is ~400/km^2 which puts it ahead of Japan (340/km^2) and very far ahead of the UK which has a population density of ~250/km^2! (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density) *) For completeness: last time i saw the Dutch news house-prices were declining steadily even though expensive and houses are of a very high standard in comparison to my experience in the UK. **) For people putting in the argument that a lot of area in the UK is not suitable to build on. If I look around the Bristol area when driving to London (or to Cardiff) there is an awful lot of space next to existing train or road-connections that the Dutch would have used to build towns seeing the problems that exist of unaffordable housing! Edited January 4, 2010 by fallingbuzzard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Baron Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 I really can't see prices rising much in 2010, but I really can't see them crashing when you've got strong numbers like these! http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/li/2009/nov/lendind.pdf Sorry, the fools who have bought houses in the last two years will rue the price they paid for another decade. They are sliding down a bannister of falling house prices in order to sever their scrotum on the inevitable newel post at the bottom of the stairs. What is wrong with these idiots? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XswampyX Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 A graph for Nov 1993-2009. Looks to me like we are still 50% down from the peak. The second graph is the amount of adjustment they make to get the seasonally adjusted figures. I started this last night, but updated it for the new data. What surprised me was not that they changed the amount of the SA every time, but they also back dated it. ie. The SA figures for 1993 are reworked every time they release the new figures. "Who controls the past, controls the future: who controls the present controls the past" (Orwell 37). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moesasji Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 (edited) England is 375/km^2, almost as much as Netherlands! Either way, the argument about the small, overpopulated island is still false when it comes to explaining house price levels versus income Clearly off-topic, but I don't see on what source you base this equality between Holland and the UK....the wiki-page I linked to definitely shows the large gap I mentioned: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density ? I don't think including Guernsey, Jernsey, Gibraltar and Bermuda into the UK would closing of the gap, but couldn't be bothered to add the numbers. edit) Ignore me : stupid continental European not reading carefully that you mention England instead of UK. Edited January 4, 2010 by moesasji Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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