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UKguy1979

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  1. Hi guys Just looking for some advice. I'm living in Australia, i moved from the UK. I have not moved my savings over the because of the bad exchange rates with the Aussie $ being at a 50 year high against the £. The exchange is volatile, and can spike 10 points with the jitters in europe. If the euro collapses or wobbles, people pile into sterling or the green back for security and dump the aussie and kiwi dollars. This has happend 3 times when the asian stock markets get a lot wipped off. The economy here has slowed but is far from recession, house prices are a lot more expensive than the UK although wages are a lot higher here. Obvisouly the main driver is the mining industry in australia shipping to china. If the chinese economy slows this would wack the resources sector here. Interest rates were dropped and may come down further but are still 4.5% at present which keeps the $ strong. So my questions is do I transfer my savings over now or do I hold out that there might be a rebalence between the aussie $ and the £ in the near future?
  2. I am living and working in Australia at the moment on the Goldcoast. People here are just as mad about houses as they are in the UK, gets on my tits. The house here are just plaster board with an aluminium frame. At the beginning of the week the aussie $ was 1.62 against the pound and mid week suddenly massively dropped to $1.76 to the UK £. I was tempted to take my money out of the UK for the higher interest rates in Australia. Somethings not right, the rest if the world interest rates are between 0-0.5% and Australia's are 4.5%. When I read the facts on the Aussie banking, it reminded my of Iceland. I'm keeping my money in the UK, I think there is just a big lag before Australia gets wacked by the credit crunch. What do people think? http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/email-regarding-global-bust-ii-perfect.html Enquiring minds have been investigating the property bubble down under and are asking the question "How Safe is Australia's Banking System?" Australian economist Steve Keen addresses that question and more in a presentation on his blog How to Profit From the Coming Aussie Property Crash (and Banking Crisis). The answer to the question is on pages 19-23 * 50% of Australia’s mortgage market is held by CBA and Westpac, 25% are held by ANZ & NAB (see CoreData’s Australian Mortgage Report Q1 2010) * As at December 2009, 60% of CBA’s lending books are mortgages. 50% of Westpac’s lending books are mortgage.1 Both figures are set to continue to grow. * Look at CBA 2009 annual report—Leverage ratio is almost 20 times (total assets of $620.4 billion against $31.4 billion of equity). Of $620.4 billion of assets, $473.7 billion are loan assets. If around 6.6% of CBA’s loans go bad (any loans, not just mortgages), 100% of its shareholder equity will be wiped out!!2 * Australia’s banks have $13 trillion of off-balance sheet liabilities, according to RBA’s figures!3 The Reserve Bank of Australia has a dark worry about our banks: they get 90 per cent of their cash from each other. If one bank gets into trouble, the Australian financial system could be snap-frozen overnight. 1: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/fast-rise-of-round-robin-lenders/story-e6frg8zx-1111116954669
  3. The £ has dropped to 1.69 against the Aussie Dollar, that is an all time record!!! Prior to that the lowest it has been was 1.72 to the $ People are rapidly loosing faith with the UK
  4. OK lets put a total run on the UK pound in perspective. Just after xmas one of the bookies put it at an 8:1 chance that the UK would need to go to the IMF for a bail out. What do housepricecrash people think the odds are now? I think that most investors will give the UK the benefit of the doubt up until the election. After who ever gets in will need to slash the debt otherwise there will be a total run on the pound. But I could be wrong
  5. I am living in Australia for a year on the goldcoast. Things are much better here than in the UK. Their banks are the most stable in the world they were not involved in subprime like ours. Although property is still rising and more expensive than the UK. Espcially on the Goldcoast because its such a exclusive location. I was going to transfer 100k over to a savings account here, the exchange is 1.72$ to the £, the uk pound is at an all time low againt the aussie doller. I'm guessing I would be folish to transfer over now incase the £ goes up? If it did I would lose a lot of money. You can get accounts paying 6% interest. Any advice? Things are still looking bad in the UK. If we went lke Greece the £ would drop like a brick. Although thats a possibility if the Conservatives get in and put a credible plan together to reduce the debt the markets would respond up?
  6. I am living in Australia for a year on the goldcoast. Things are much better here than in the UK. Their banks are the most stable in the world they were not involved in subprime like ours. Although property is still rising and more expensive than the UK. Espcially on the Goldcoast because its such a exclusive location. I was going to transfer 100k over to a savings account here, the exchange is 1.72$ to the £, the uk pound is at an all time low againt the aussie doller. I'm guessing I would be folish to transfer over now incase the £ goes up? If it did I would lose a lot of money. You can get accounts paying 6% interest. Any advice? Things are still looking bad in the UK. If we went lke Greece the £ would drop like a brick. Although thats a possibility if the Conservatives get in and put a credible plan together to reduce the debt the markets would respond up?
  7. Rent I guess like in parts of europe. I'd love to see the prices come down to a sensible level, like whats happened in the USA and in Ireland. Who knows whats around corner.
  8. There will always be strong demand for houses as we are an over populated little island. Even with 3 million unemployed there is still a large population of people working and wanting property. In my view the only thing that will bring prices down is when interest rates go up or sterling has a crisis which may or may not happen. Only time will tell.
  9. Im unemployed at the moment, and there are very few jobs about. After xmas will be doubt very difficult as its a flat time of the year. After the election when the tax rises and spending cuts kick will be the double dip in my view. We shall see.
  10. If a person has some money in the UK what should they do? Invest in gold, send it abroad? Convert to Euros? I seriously think there will be a run on the £. Its like Iceland, all the rumblings and rumours in the months before were right. Once a few start to jump, the rest will flood out.
  11. We are in a double dip, and the next dip will kick in after the election when the tory government inherit the biggest financial mess of all time. I dont envy them what so ever. After all, when labour came to power the economy was already on the up.
  12. Is it the case that the bank of England has had to print all this money, otherwise there would have been NO money in the economy due to the massive bank bailouts swallowing ALL our hard earned cash into their black hole? Is it not now the case now that to the banks it does not matter about risk, because if it all fcks up the bank of England will just create a load more money so they can carry on with the big bonus’s and risk taking?? So really absolutely nothing has changed. Hence the propping up of house prices, credit card debt etc. Is all this bank debt just being off set by the printing of more money so it will never have to be repaid by the banks in reality? I.e. I have just lost £100, ah that’s ok we'll just print you another £100.
  13. Australia - I just spent a month there and they are not fairing to be badly at the moment. Unlike here.
  14. What is the truth about our national debt? It is not far off a thousand billion, the highest ever since the second world, and that war bankrupted the country. Are we going bankrupt or not? The credit ratings agencys dont seem to be overly concerned at the present time and investors are not pulling their money out of the UK at the moment, how come? Indeed nothing has changed for people working on the public sector its still very over bloated. What predictions do people have for what will happen after the election? Is the debt still managble with the banks now repaying their loans as they are slightly in profit? I have my money in the UK, if the markets got really gittery like what happened with iceland our currnecy would drop like a brick even more than at present. Would it be wise to put money abroad to a safe haven? I personally think the shit will hit the fan after the election and any hope of a recovery will be knocked on the head for sometime?
  15. how likely is it the UK will go bust? How safe is our money in our banks if the UK goes bust or cant meet its obligation?
  16. Be warned, ING direct compensation is 100,000 euro's however this is due to drop shortly to 50,000! Dont get caught out because they dont put it on their website.
  17. That will screw the economy big time. I'm half contemplating getting a hybrid car to take advantage of low road tax and better economy due to miles I have to travel.
  18. I don't know if its just me but Petrol in my local Tesco is £1.06 a litre now. Its creeping up again and we have a 2p tax increase coming in September. If my mind serves my right, inflation rose sharply last time due to high oil prices, which put up interest rates, than with subprime everything fell down like a pack of cards. So we have.................. High unemployment Many people working a 3 day week A lot of people having had pay cuts = reduced money in the economy and now we have the return of high petrol prices. Surely this is going to hit people hard in the pockets, I know it is me. But its ok, house prices are rising and thats all the matters in the British economy (stupid country)
  19. I was looking on their site and it does not say anywhere about protection of savings or how safe they are as a bank! Your protected to 100,000 Euros, but again if it went tits up you have to get the money from Holland. Its all very well saying that to lure savers in, but should it happen and the government say, "sorry we dont have the money" and pay back the Dutch only your stuffed. Yes its unlikely to go bust, but hey once Icelands banks had AAA credit ratings and look what happend there!!! People just have to be careful as we are not out of the words yet.
  20. When claiming Job Seekers DO NOT disclose your savings, when I was unemployed I told them I had no savings just a few hundred £ in my Lloyds. They never check and its only £60 you get anyway. Its always the fckers who never pay in who get the most benefit, and the deserving people get peanuts all out. Being unemployed and going to the job center makes you feel like one of the wasters in this country. She will just have to shrugg it off and apply for jobs. Most jobs never bother replying when you apply (rude bastards). Eventually she will get something.
  21. Couple of questions, I was wondering why the ftse has gone up 3.5% today, when we had the news of a 1.9% contraction in the economy plus Britiain is nearly bankrupt. What does the daily express have to gain from posting on its front page that "house prices are on the rise" this week? I work in the biggest blast and spray facitlity in the UK for structural steel and its dead out there. Will the company survive? Dont know, will be a close run thing. People of being laid off in droves. Its so annoying that there are still a large group of these die hard people who still think house prices only ever go up! For **** sake look at the state of the public finances and the debt of the country which has got us into the mess in the first place. Seems to me this country has still not learned its lesson. Im just looking for reposseions to really start getting going, bad debts on banks and building societys to increase. Alistair Darling, hopes to see a return to growth in 2010. Look at every other prediction he has made, totally wrong. Its tough out there and will get tougher yet. No way will there be a return to growth. I think its looking more likely we will need an IMF bailout in years to come if we dont return to growth. But could the IMF afford it? How long will the dead cat bounce last? Before prices start to drop again?
  22. Obvisouly the Dunfermline Building Society has totally colapsed now and has been put up for sale. I just wondered how all the others will fair, there are many small ones like the Stroud & Swindon by me? Obvisouly with repossessions creeping up and prices falling, they might not fair so well with bad debts. Interestingly I live in a small Cotswold town and the price of houses have dropped very little compared to other big towns and citys. Its going to have to come as houses are not selling and unemployment is going up. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7969882.stm
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