Had An Estate Agent Call Me Today

[Mildura]

4 weeks . wow here the average time on market is about 300 days.

Don't get me wrong there are plenty that have been on the market for a long while, BUT if it's sensibly priced there is a market to sell things quickly. How long that will remain the case for, we will have to wait and see.

[Sybil13]

A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

Howard Davis of CJ Hole (Clifton) looks into the puzzling state of the property market this autumn and finds that, despite the conflicting signs, there is reason to be very optimistic.

What exactly is happening to the property market at the moment? In many parts of the UK August has been one of the most active on record and this following a rather busy July. So, after the dark and dreadful credit crunch months, what on earth is going on? After all the ‘property experts’ seem to think that the market could take years to pick up again.

This underlines the fact that nobody can really be a true expert forecaster in property. We can expertly deal with the market we are in, and skilfully help buyers and sellers to make the best of the prevailing conditions. But to try and out-guess the property market is an entirely different proposition.......

Of course what Mr HOLE fails to consider is where the money will come from to support the market where it is let alone a continuing bubble. Sentiment is one thing but a market starved of money and FTB's etc., regardless of all the ramping, is a market that is on the verge of a collapse.

The current market is one based on sentiment / fantasy/ illusion / denial / hope (the last evil out of Pandora's box) and RAMPING. You can stand in front of the mirror as many times a day as you like saying "I AM BEAUTIFUL - HOUSE PRICES CAN ONLY GO UP AND UP "...but at the end of the day the "half full cup" is actually on its way to emptying, there just isn't the money in the system to support 2007 values , eventually property must do what the lenders need it to do now the money from the wholesale markets has dried up.

Lenders would not be asking for 40% deposits if they were not simply asking cash rich buyers to take the risk with THEIR OWN money.

Rightmove's August HPI said:

Future price and transaction growth is now controlled by the bottleneck of mortgage availability. This is unlikely to change for years to come, with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasting that mortgage application levels will recover slowly and remain well below the levels seen in the early part of this decade as far ahead as 2013. Even in 2013 the CEBR state that numbers will still be 24% below 2006 levels. This may well reflect a paradigm shift in access to mortgage lending. While HSBC is the only major lender to have taken a more proactive stance and increased its market share, its reported average loan-to-value of circa 50% on new mortgage lending is a perfect illustration of the new era of both caution and cherry picking.

And Rightmove's September HPI suggested it will be 10 years before lending will recover , and until lending does how can houseprices stay where they are? :

...too few buyers can put down the 40% deposits that are needed in order to secure the best mortgage deals. Finance greases the wheels of the property market, and it is anybody’s guess when we might see the necessary level of competitive funding return. Frustrated homehunters should note the expected ten year timetable to wind up Lehman Brothers, giving a clear indication of the time required to rebuild the banking system

Ray Boulger says:

Healthy activity is around 100,000 approvals month, according to Boulger, but he adds: "We may not see this for some time." It took until October 1996 for approvals to hit 100,000 after the last recession – almost four years after it had officially ended.

Another article recently said:

In 2007, banks made 800,000 mortgage approvals, but only 400,000 were made from their own resources. Banks today are already offering mortgages at an annualised rate of about 375,000 approvals – nearly as much as at the peak of the market.

So, how much more can banks realistically do? Perhaps they can lend another 20%, to reach a total of 450,000 mortgages. Add in the struggling building societies at 100,000 loans (a third of their peak) and 20,000 from specialist lenders (down 75%) and the total may be just 570,000 a year.

What does this mean for house prices? History suggests the balance point lies at about 900,000 approvals; below this, prices fall and above it prices rise. So, there may not be enough money in the system to keep house prices rising.

So couple all of this with "proposed new powers to curb bank lending and prevent asset bubbles, such as the housing boom undermining the real economy " , and UK Lenders Need to Cut Lending by £500billion, and we do not seem to have the recipe for Mr Holes optimism do we ?

Last week the Bank of England declared that UK banks might need to cut their lending by £500 billion within 4 years as the Governmental support will be withdrawn.

The report on financial stability published by the Bank on June 26th suggests that the widening financial gap of British lenders coupled with the reduction in the Bank of England’s assistance will mean that lenders will be obliged to look for additional sources of funding.

According to the central bank, some of the shortfall was met as the banks have sold their debt, which was backed by the governmental Credit Guarantee Scheme that amounted to £250 billion.The balance sheets of British banks have significantly grown in the past years; for instance, the balance sheet of the Royal Bank of Scotland Group has reached £2.4 trillion in 2008 – the figure exceeds the one of the UK economy as a whole.....At the moment, the UK Government possesses the major share of the RBS Group and 43% of the Lloyds Banking Group.

Analysts are determined that the Government’s plans on the increased banks’ lending towards the population are in controversy with its requirement to cut banks’ lending by £500 billion.

.....the Bank of England is confident that the measure is a must. In 2008, the difference between banks’ lending and deposits was constantly growing and reached as much as £800 billion with almost 50% of the amount being backed by residential property securities.

So take heart :

Fidelity's Anthony Bolton explained in the weekend's FT about the stock market, "if everyone is positioned for the market to rise, it means these bullish expectations are already discounted" – i.e. factored into the price. As a result, "the market often moves to make the majority wrong and does the unexpected… so at turning points especially, the correct is the minority view".

And while there are plenty of differences between shares and houses, the principles of crowd behaviour are the same for every asset class. When almost everyone is bullish, get ready for a price fall. The near-8.5% bounce in property prices within the last six months (using Nationwide's figures at least) now looks ripe for a reversal.

[Timm]

So, after the dark and dreadful credit crunch months, what on earth is going on? After all the ‘property experts’ seem to think that the market could take years to pick up again. This underlines the fact that nobody can really be a true expert forecaster in property.

We can expertly deal with the market we are in, and skilfully help buyers and sellers to make the best of the prevailing conditions. But to try and out-guess the property market is an entirely different proposition. So if we aren’t going to be foolish enough to try to foretell the future, at least we can try to understand the present.

Well, that seems fair enough. Many "experts" have proved you right on this. But then, as if from nowhere:

... the market has hit the bottom and now the only way is up...

So, what a great position to be in; Don’t sell and you will make money, buy now and you will make money...

So, your attempt to assess the current market, rather than being stupid enough to make predictions, results in the prediction that property can only go up, and you won't go wrong with bricks and mortar? *****.

[cypher007]

Don't get me wrong there are plenty that have been on the market for a long while, BUT if it's sensibly priced there is a market to sell things quickly. How long that will remain the case for, we will have to wait and see.

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/time_on_marke...=pe21&all=1

ok i was a bit out, 200 days.

[cypher007]

Don't worry, this time next year HIPs will hopefully have been abolished!

my other problem is:

the estate agent i re-signed with, after about a six month gap with another agent, had been merged with another agent. what i didnt realise when i signed the contract was was that they had slipped in a clause which says if i take it off the market they will charge me a £280 marketing fee :angry: , even if they decide they dont want to market it as well!!!.

Edited September 24, 2009 by cypher007

[Mildura]

my other problem is:

the estate agent i re-signed with, after about a six month gap with another agent, had been merged with another agent. what i didnt realise when i signed the contract was was that they had slipped in a clause which says if i take it off the market they will charge me a £280 marketing fee :angry: , even if they decide they dont want to market it as well.

Tell them to get stuffed.

[cypher007]

Tell them to get stuffed.

yeah i can see that working. ive lost enough money trying to move so far, with numerous time wasters that pull out after as little as 2 days after agreeing to buy my house, and most of the time its because they cant get a mortgage. why the estate agent doesnt make sure theyve got funding first i dont know. where abouts are you an estate agent?

[Mildura]

yeah i can see that working. ive lost enough money trying to move so far, with numerous time wasters that pull out after as little as 2 days after agreeing to buy my house, and most of the time its because they cant get a mortgage. why the estate agent doesnt make sure theyve got funding first i dont know. where abouts are you an estate agent?

Doesn't sound like you've had much luck trying to move, I hope things get better for you.

Rather than ******ing about with the useless HIPs, they should have put something in place whereby all parties are firmly committed to the transaction, preferably by stumping up some of their hard earned cash. It doesn't have to be much, just enough to make people think before causing others inconvenience when they later pull out.

As this is unlikely to happen, it would help if more of my 'competitors' could actually do their job properly, and check a buyer out when an offer is made.

I'm based in South West Surrey.

[Mr Punter]

Rather than ******ing about with the useless HIPs, they should have put something in place whereby all parties are firmly committed to the transaction, preferably by stumping up some of their hard earned cash. It doesn't have to be much, just enough to make people think before causing others inconvenience when they later pull out.

As this is unlikely to happen, it would help if more of my 'competitors' could actually do their job properly, and check a buyer out when an offer is made.

When I sell a new build I ask the purchaser to enter into an exclusivity agreement. They pay a non-refundable deposit of £1000 and the place is off the market for eight weeks, during which time we exchange contracts. If they do the deal, the money comes off the price. I use my discretion regarding refunds in the event that they don't go ahead eg. if they change their mind within a couple of weeks of signing, I will refund.

Why this is not commonplace for all purchases, I don't know.

[Mildura]

When I sell a new build I ask the purchaser to enter into an exclusivity agreement. They pay a non-refundable deposit of £1000 and the place is off the market for eight weeks, during which time we exchange contracts. If they do the deal, the money comes off the price. I use my discretion regarding refunds in the event that they don't go ahead eg. if they change their mind within a couple of weeks of signing, I will refund.

Why this is not commonplace for all purchases, I don't know.

Quite. It is so simple, yet would make things much more straightforward for all those involved.

[cypher007]

When I sell a new build I ask the purchaser to enter into an exclusivity agreement. They pay a non-refundable deposit of £1000 and the place is off the market for eight weeks, during which time we exchange contracts. If they do the deal, the money comes off the price. I use my discretion regarding refunds in the event that they don't go ahead eg. if they change their mind within a couple of weeks of signing, I will refund.

Why this is not commonplace for all purchases, I don't know.

sounds like a plan. im not sure if the estate agent will go for it though. speaking of which they recently took some of my internal photo's off. when i questioned this they said they need photo's that are representative of the property. i said the trouble is if they take photo's at the moment it will detract from its marketability, as we have a little Boy who's only 14 months old and has covered the lounge in toys. plus we now have stair gates and stuff all over the place.

[munners]

My buyer made me agree an undertaking for £3k so that I wouldnt pull out of the sale. IM THE PERSON SELLING!!!

It was a nightmare as I had to actually pay my sols £3k. I have made sure that she does the same so that I am covered if she pulls out.

At least it is an assurance that she is serious.

[cypher007]

Doesn't sound like you've had much luck trying to move, I hope things get better for you.

Rather than ******ing about with the useless HIPs, they should have put something in place whereby all parties are firmly committed to the transaction, preferably by stumping up some of their hard earned cash. It doesn't have to be much, just enough to make people think before causing others inconvenience when they later pull out.

As this is unlikely to happen, it would help if more of my 'competitors' could actually do their job properly, and check a buyer out when an offer is made.

I'm based in South West Surrey.

here's a breakdown:

2006 used an online agent, total waste of time, i dont think they use the internet here.

2007 July £115k had a buyer who then fked about for 4 months before dumping me buyerless in November 2007.

2008 April £110k had an offer then they retracted.

2008 May £110k had a buyer for 2 days who then couldnt get a mortgage.

2008 August £98k had a buyer for a week who then the estate agent said they couldnt get hold of.

2008 £98k same phone call said they had sold it to another couple, who after 4 weeks pulled out because theyd had a row and didnt want to buy a house anymore, supposedly.

Edited September 24, 2009 by cypher007

[cypher007]

here's a breakdown:

2006 used an online agent, total waste of time, i dont think they use the internet here.

2007 July �115k had a buyer who then fked about for 4 months before dumping me buyerless in November 2007.

2008 April �110k had an offer then they retracted.

2008 May �110k had a buyer for 2 days who then couldnt get a mortgage.

2008 August �98k had a buyer for a week who then the estate agent said they couldnt get hold of.

2008 �98k same phone call said they had sold it to another couple, who after 4 weeks pulled out because theyd had a row and didnt want to buy a house anymore, supposedly.

is this normal?

[cypher007]

?

[Sybil13]

My buyer made me agree an undertaking for £3k so that I wouldnt pull out of the sale. IM THE PERSON SELLING!!!

It was a nightmare as I had to actually pay my sols £3k. I have made sure that she does the same so that I am covered if she pulls out.

At least it is an assurance that she is serious.

The problem I can see with sellers or buyers asking for money up front on proposed sale /purchase is that it ONLY works if there isn't a chain AND the buyer has a mortgage sorted and doesn't need a valuation more than 25% below peak . Selling or buying must be a nightmare at the moment and so much money must be being lost on solicitors / surveys etc because there are no FTB's to complete the chain, or the valuation is 20% + down on offer price etc etc..

[SaintJay]

I got a call from an estate agent today....

'Hello SJ, I've got a lovely house you'd like. Shall I send you the details?'

'Yes please - and tell me about it too.'

'Its a 3 bed semi - nice area, room to extend.'

'How much is it?'

'Its 285k.'

That's way over my budget'

'Yes, I know, but he says he'll take 230k.'

'Eh? So why are you selling it at 285k?

'The vendor insisted on it.'

'Bye.'

[Damik]

here's a breakdown:

2006 used an online agent, total waste of time, i dont think they use the internet here.

2007 July �115k had a buyer who then fked about for 4 months before dumping me buyerless in November 2007.

2008 April �110k had an offer then they retracted.

2008 May �110k had a buyer for 2 days who then couldnt get a mortgage.

2008 August �98k had a buyer for a week who then the estate agent said they couldnt get hold of.

2008 �98k same phone call said they had sold it to another couple, who after 4 weeks pulled out because theyd had a row and didnt want to buy a house anymore, supposedly.

2010 sold for 45k .... repossession ...

yes it is quite normal ... it is called chasing market down ... market is falling but you never drop price enough to catch it ....

[Sybil13]

I got a call from an estate agent today....

'Hello SJ, I've got a lovely house you'd like. Shall I send you the details?'

'Yes please - and tell me about it too.'

'Its a 3 bed semi - nice area, room to extend.'

'How much is it?'

'Its 285k.'

That's way over my budget'

'Yes, I know, but he says he'll take 230k.'

'Eh? So why are you selling it at 285k?

'The vendor insisted on it.'

'Bye.'

Thing is agents don't want to advertise property as if it has been valued in todays market either even though ultimately if the buyers needs a mortgage it will get valued in todays market and will be valued probably for a lot less than the offer price. I assume this is why RM's August HPI said that EA's were advising sellers to take a lower cash offer rather than wait for a higher offer from someone who needs a mortgage. However, my Q there is, if property is ONLY being bought by the cash rich, which RM confirm is true then how come the "cash rich" are not putting in lower offers? Is it because they are scrabbling over too few houses or are the figures being skewed by historically low transactions and a few very expensive properties selling ?

[Damik]

Don't get me wrong there are plenty that have been on the market for a long while, BUT if it's sensibly priced there is a market to sell things quickly. How long that will remain the case for, we will have to wait and see.

any house will sell in a second for £1 and never for 1000 millions £

so there is also a price you can sell any house in 1 week, 1 month, 1 year

if you do not know the price then start with a high one and drop 10% every 2 weeks

you will sell in 3 months guaranteed for the best price you can get in your area

only an idiot can sell the house for more than year ...

[Damik]

Thing is agents don't want to advertise property as if it has been valued in todays market either even though ultimately if the buyers needs a mortgage it will get valued in todays market and will be valued probably for a lot less than the offer price. I assume this is why RM's August HPI said that EA's were advising sellers to take a lower cash offer rather than wait for a higher offer from someone who needs a mortgage. However, my Q there is, if property is ONLY being bought by the cash rich, which RM confirm is true then how come the "cash rich" are not putting in lower offers? Is it because they are scrabbling over too few houses or are the figures being skewed by historically low transactions and a few very expensive properties selling ?

sheep are not still ready for the new lower prices. the bank valuations will have to bring people back to reality ...

plus they made money in housing so for them the high prices are normal and reason they got rich. they still do not believe that house prices can tank ...

but these money will be one day gone (this Christmas?) and then the mortgage buyers will drop the price floors even on the rightmove ...

the bank valuations will spread the message!

[Damik]

I got a call from an estate agent today....

'Hello SJ, I've got a lovely house you'd like. Shall I send you the details?'

'Yes please - and tell me about it too.'

'Its a 3 bed semi - nice area, room to extend.'

'How much is it?'

'Its 285k.'

That's way over my budget'

'Yes, I know, but he says he'll take 230k.'

'Eh? So why are you selling it at 285k?

'The vendor insisted on it.'

'Bye.'

maybe it is starting. maybe the bank valuation was 230k and EA knows that if you need a mortgage you can pay only 230k ....

[Jabberwocky]

im on the market, but havent sold yet. then today i get a call from an agent weve viewed a four bed house through:

Oh thats good. It proves even a monkey can be trained to use a phone.

[Potwalloper]

So, what a great position to be in; Don’t sell and you will make money, buy now and you will make money. It’s win-win and that is a concept that should be no riddle, mystery or enigma to anyone.

Howard Davis

Managing Director CJ Hole (Clifton)

The man should be hounded through the streets for trying to con the weak and the stupid out of their money.

[cypher007]

2010 sold for 45k .... repossession ...

yes it is quite normal ... it is called chasing market down ... market is falling but you never drop price enough to catch it ....

we dont have a mortgage .

round here the average is £108-£119k for a semi, so maybe im on at too little?

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1

£45k by 2010, hmm i wish, that would make the 4 bed detached stuff worth about £90-100k, we could then move.

Edited September 25, 2009 by cypher007