It Is Different This Time. Population To Increase By 2,600,000 By 2015

[benthebuilder]

All sorts of people.

Some will be natives that left to other shores like Spain returning, others will never have been in Europe before.

Yes the prospects might not be as bright in the UK as they once were but nonetheless the uk is still a top destination were there are jobs, there is security and some goon isn’t going to knock you over the head for looking at him weird (unless he is a policemen )

Past few years we have had a net 400-500k arrive and it is estimated to continue.

Oh look......multiple posts arguing your corner with everyone who dares disagree with you.

Take your tiny ego round to your mums and let her iron it for you.

[Bloo Loo]

good for the hotel trade if you ask me.

[Greg Bowman]

I suspect that with the boom in prices, and the ensuing delay in twenty-somethings buying houses, with the knock-on effect of delays in starting families, will mean that there is a small peak in the birth rate coming up over the next 5 years or so.

But then again, other financial factors might just mean that families forgo their second and third children. (As in, not have them in the first place, rather than have them put down.)

Already happening I think, the two child family is starting to look like it is from another era.

[Wol]

What are all these immigrants going to *do*? It isn't 2003.

Where is the work going to be?

Anyone answering "benefits" needs to think carefully about what is going to have to happen to the benefits system in 2010 and 2011.

[non frog]

Goodness me what an argument

Look its easy - right?

The people coming to the UK will be all the Brits that went abroad and retired to Spain. As the pound crashes their old age pension will be worth jack and they will not be able to afford €0.50 for a tin of imported baked beans as that will cost £3.89 in sterling and pensions will be frozen at 90 quid a week.

They will sell their Spanish property at a huge loss but at least have €20 grand or so to buy a UK house.

Since that will be about £170K by then they can cash buy a small property.

So house prices will go up.

See.

(just don't measure UK prices in a real currency )

[mattydread]

We really need the swine flu to wipe out the third world slums.

Tower Hamlets (third world slum) Swine Flu 'hotspot'

http://www.thelondonpaper.com/thelondonpap...ine-flu-hotspot

UK Swine Flu 'hotspot'

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/he...ot-1751233.html

[tiggerthetiger]

Not if they get together and buy it for £400.

ooo 20 people living in a house...be a bit smelly

[Mammon]

Unlike the last HPC there is going to be a big increase in population after the crash. Most of this increase will be people of working age rather than children so the housing requirement is even higher.

Due to our great planning permission system very few new homes will be built.

With 400,000 adults arriving a year who need housing we may not see much more of a hpc.

There are quite a few other differences too.

1.Record low interest rates.

2.Mortgage interest paid to the unemployed.

3.Thousands of BTL investors looking to add to their portfolios at discounted prices.

This is why prices have now stabilised.

[the flying pig]

Quite clearly if the housing stock is nearly static and we add 2,600,000 people to be housed we get two things.

1: higher rents

2: higher density (ie say 3 people per house rather than 2.8 etc)

Now with higher rents that means property is yield more cash.

Since the yield is now higher, money flows out of bonds and stocks into property.

2.6m more to house without much more housing will definitely have an upwards impact on house prices

a broad-brush statement like "...2.6m more to house without much more housing will definitely have an upwards impact on house prices" is horribly simplistic.

all of this forecast [and that's all it is, a forecast, you don't name your source but in my experience no-one ever invests time and resources into making forecasts unless they have a financial interest in the result, which can, of course, affect the neutrality of the forecast] increase in population is very much of a type, namely as a result of second and third world immigration, which has obvious implications in terms of the population density per house thay they will be prepared to live in - it's not impossible to imagine a historically modest annual housebuilding of 150k per year between now and being easily sufficient.

it seems to me that there are two really big UK population phenomena on the horizon, namely:

(1) unprecedented numbers of elderly people; and

(2) unprecedented numbers of poor immigrants.

as we know, the numbe of middle class and skilled working class people of working age will fall.

i'd say that the real boom areas for housing will be restricted to two types of housing only, namely purpose-built dwellings for the elderly and very low cost dwellings for first and second generation second and third worlders. i say "boom area" but by this i mean a boom in people wanting accommodation - as always budget will be more important than population numbers in determing prices.

the number of people willing and able to shell out half a million quid for a big, upmarket, family house seems almost certain to fall, firstly because of the tyranny of numbers [the number of 25s-45s with good jobs will fall] and secondly because of the overall fall in living standards we're likely to experience if this forecast wave of immigrants from very poor countries continues.

Edited July 19, 2009 by the flying pig

[Number79]

There are quite a few other differences too.

1.Record low interest rates.

2.Mortgage interest paid to the unemployed.

3.Thousands of BTL investors looking to add to their portfolios at discounted prices.

This is why prices have now stabilised.

There are quite a few other differences too.

1.Record low interest rates. For Now

2.Mortgage interest paid to the unemployed. After 37 weeks, long time to survive on no income?

3.Thousands of BTL investors looking to add to their portfolios at discounted prices. Tens of thousands desperately selling, being reposessed, underwater.

This is why prices have not yet stabilised.

[Selling up]

Cells is of course right that all other things being equal, expanding the population faster than the stock of housing will tend to make housing (via rent or purchase) more expensive.

However the times were are living in are atypical in so many ways - financial crisis, government deficit, credit unavailability - that I find it hard to see rising property costs. I wonder instead whether street homelessness will become a major phenomenon again.

"Other things" are not "equal".

[newbonic]

Cells is of course right that all other things being equal, expanding the population faster than the stock of housing will tend to make housing (via rent or purchase) more expensive.

However the times were are living in are atypical in so many ways - financial crisis, government deficit, credit unavailability - that I find it hard to see rising property costs. I wonder instead whether street homelessness will become a major phenomenon again.

"Other things" are not "equal".

I wonder if we'll see the occurrence and rise of 3rd world style shanty towns in our cities and towns, and widespread squatting? I.e because of:

* an extra couple of million, mostly poor, immigrants over 2010 - 2015

* high and rising indigenous unemployment

* a totally stalled jobs market

* house building stalled because of the ongoing financial crisis (< 100k new houses p.a.)

* slashing of benefits due to gov. deficits and 'get tough' measures to spike the BNP vote

For example: Polish workers forced to live in 'shanty town' in wood after job prospects dry up (Waning Daily 'Hate'Mail' article!)

These are in Lincoln but I think I saw a TV doc showing other such situations in Peterborough and other east Anglian locations.

I don't think the above will trigger HPI either - the economy's going to stagnate or tank over a 2010 - 2015 horizon IMO.

We live in interesting times.

[Guest spp]

At least the pensions crisis will be solved. Final salary schemes all around. Hurrah.

Show me the jobs!???

[cells]

Oh look......multiple posts arguing your corner with everyone who dares disagree with you.

Take your tiny ego round to your mums and let her iron it for you.

Its called a debate you moron.

I have a view, you have a view and we try to disprove each others views to see which is correct

[benthebuilder]

Its called a debate you moron.

I have a view, you have a view and we try to disprove each others views to see which is correct

Oooooh touchy boy. Getting personal eh. No need to be ashamed about getting your mum to do your ironing.

[the flying pig]

...Polish workers forced to live in 'shanty town' in wood after job prospects dry up (Waning Daily 'Hate'Mail' article!)...

classic daily mail reader comments...

[Selling up]

Its called a debate you moron.

Well said

[Guest Steve Cook]

Unless the Tories get elected in which case there will probably be more leaving than entering

the Tories would have allowed the same levels of immigration as Labour have done. They would have just made a more convincing job of the anti-johnny foreigner rhetoric.

The reason immigration levels were always going to be this big is because this is how a global, capitalist system works. You encourage more workers at the lower-end to push wages and conditions down. This way, the existing workers are kept on their toes and the capitalist elite gets to maintain/enhance their profits yet further.

If left unchecked, we presumably get a return to the Victorian sweatshop.