Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
cells

It Is Different This Time. Population To Increase By 2,600,000 By 2015

Recommended Posts

Unlike the last HPC there is going to be a big increase in population after the crash. Most of this increase will be people of working age rather than children so the housing requirement is even higher.

Due to our great planning permission system very few new homes will be built.

With 400,000 adults arriving a year who need housing we may not see much more of a hpc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Unlike the last HPC there is going to be a big increase in population after the crash. Most of this increase will be people of working age rather than children so the housing requirement is even higher.

Due to our great planning permission system very few new homes will be built.

With 400,000 adults arriving a year who need housing we may not see much more of a hpc.

At least the pensions crisis will be solved. Final salary schemes all around. Hurrah.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

right, thanks for posting, i'm going out to buy this week before prices start to rise again with those 400,000 annual wealthy foreigners and 2m people well paid and of working age snatch all the property away. sounds like i've been asleep at the wheel.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Unlike the last HPC there is going to be a big increase in population after the crash. Most of this increase will be people of working age rather than children so the housing requirement is even higher.

Due to our great planning permission system very few new homes will be built.

With 400,000 adults arriving a year who need housing we may not see much more of a hpc.

I suspect that with the boom in prices, and the ensuing delay in twenty-somethings buying houses, with the knock-on effect of delays in starting families, will mean that there is a small peak in the birth rate coming up over the next 5 years or so.

But then again, other financial factors might just mean that families forgo their second and third children. (As in, not have them in the first place, rather than have them put down.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And will these 400,000 people all have loadsamoney?

they will be rich chinese or er rich poles or have good jobs and get mortgages easily and buy all the property the bulls are stuck with and the bulls will live happily ever after, of course the millions of existing empty homes and those who pass on either through natural causes or disease each year will still need their houses or their houses will be kept deliberately empty as a museum, hence adding to the housing shortage, and of course no one emigrates out of the uk any more so you know forget that and even if they do they will not want to sell their house because it's worth more !

praise be the bulls

Edited by loginandtonic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Unlike the last HPC there is going to be a big increase in population after the crash. Most of this increase will be people of working age rather than children so the housing requirement is even higher.

Due to our great planning permission system very few new homes will be built.

With 400,000 adults arriving a year who need housing we may not see much more of a hpc.

What are these 400,000 extra people going to do when they get here?

Mine coal?

Work in the cotton mills?

Open chains of corner shops?

Why will they come here and where are they coming from?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Unlike the last HPC there is going to be a big increase in population after the crash. Most of this increase will be people of working age rather than children so the housing requirement is even higher.

Due to our great planning permission system very few new homes will be built.

With 400,000 adults arriving a year who need housing we may not see much more of a hpc.

EAs will try anything to prop up the housing market, as well as clogging up our forum with utter gibberish.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

affordability will always place a cap on prices.

if there's an auction room with 20 people in it, each of them with £20 in his pocket and no ability to borrow from anyone outside the room, before an auction for something starts, you don't know what the final price will be but 100% for definite you know that the price cannot rise higher than £20, because people physically cannot bid higher than £20. if another 2 people, or another 20 people, or another 20 million people, join the auction then, unless one of them has more than £20 in his pocket, the same rule applies - the price of the item can never rise higher than £20 - this is most obviously true of all if the new people coming into the auction room are poorer than the ones who were in there previously.

the income multiples that banks are prepared to lend are the key determinant of house prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
affordability will always place a cap on prices.

if there's an auction room with 20 people in it, each of them with £20 in his pocket and no ability to borrow from anyone outside the room, before an auction for something starts, you don't know what the final price will be but 100% for definite you know that the price cannot rise higher than £20, because people physically cannot bid higher than £20. if another 2 people, or another 20 people, or another 20 million people, join the auction then, unless one of them has more than £20 in his pocket, the same rule applies - the price of the item can never rise higher than £20 - this is most obviously true of all if the new people coming into the auction room are poorer than the ones who were in there previously.

the income multiples that banks are prepared to lend are the key determinant of house prices.

Not if they get together and buy it for £400.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What are these 400,000 extra people going to do when they get here?

Mine coal?

Work in the cotton mills?

Open chains of corner shops?

Why will they come here and where are they coming from?

dont ask such questions, have faith in the bulls I beseech thee! and do not besmirch the good repute of those fellows whose vocation is within the honourable profession of property retail. for their words are golden!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not if they get together and buy it for £400.

ha, yes. but that's not going to happen.

scotland participated very fully indeed in the recent HPI, every bit as much much so as the rest of the country, but, famously, its population has declined over time and is currently a fair bit lower than it was even in the 1970s [and, believe it or not, there has been at least some house building in the intervening period].

population can, in extreme circumstances, play a part in house prices, but compared to the supply of credit it's just noise really. the 'scotland' example proves this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Scotland

just think of all the empty houses there must be as a result of all that population decline - under a schoolroom 'supply and demand' argument, surely prices would have fallen to zero, with more houses than people to live in them?

Edited by the flying pig

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
affordability will always place a cap on prices.

if there's an auction room with 20 people in it, each of them with £20 in his pocket and no ability to borrow from anyone outside the room, before an auction for something starts, you don't know what the final price will be but 100% for definite you know that the price cannot rise higher than £20, because people physically cannot bid higher than £20. if another 2 people, or another 20 people, or another 20 million people, join the auction then, unless one of them has more than £20 in his pocket, the same rule applies - the price of the item can never rise higher than £20 - this is most obviously true of all if the new people coming into the auction room are poorer than the ones who were in there previously.

the income multiples that banks are prepared to lend are the key determinant of house prices.

HUSH - do not speak such sense where there are bulls present! their world is one of continual money trees and ever-lasting buyers for their over-paid for developments, it is hideously cruel to allude to basic economic facts for people who are under 30 and never known any sort of retracement in price, it is like revealing to them that ladies do in fact break wind

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
EAs will try anything to prop up the housing market, as well as clogging up our forum with utter gibberish.

Having read Cells' comments over the last couple of years, I do not believe he is an EA and is one of HPC's better posters, having a good grasp of finance and economics, as well as being a bear on housing.

However, I am not sure that I grasp his logic on this occasion, since most incoming workers do not earn a great deal and anyway, house prices were pushed up more by the availability of credit than demand.

Ireland's house prices shot up, but at the end of it, they discovered they had more houses than they had people to live in them. Japan, by contrast, has much more demand than we are going to have, and yet has had 2 decades of falling house prices.

The high population = higher house prices argument is intuitively easy and must play some part, but it is only 1 part of the cocktail of factors that influence property prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this must have been done a hundred times on here, need to analyse typical job immigrant goes into, how many people leave the uk annually, die here annually, get made redundant etc etc then can begin to see if the bulls' argument here is likely to have some truth. but there are already a million empty homes or so they say.

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle2686130.ece

THE urgent need to build more homes is exercising industry experts, homeowners and officials across the country. Undersupply is blamed for fuelling the massive price rises in recent years, which have pushed home-ownership out of the reach for many. But, as the Government cajoles housing associations, developers and councils to get three million new homes built by 2020, questions are being raised about the number of buildings that lie empty. The Government signalled its determination to tackle the issue in the Chancellor’s PreBudget Report, which promised measures to help to bring empty homes back into use. Details of the scheme were sparse. Bricks and Mortar spoke to industry experts to find out what it means for householders. How many empty properties are there? The Empty Homes Agency estimates that there are 840,000 empty homes in the UK. National Land Use Database figures indicate that a further 420,000 homes could be established in disused///snip

btw i am now quite drunk, so signing off for the evening, hic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Unlike the last HPC there is going to be a big increase in population after the crash. Most of this increase will be people of working age rather than children so the housing requirement is even higher.

We really need the swine flu to wipe out the third world slums.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And will these 400,000 people all have loadsamoney?

Perhaps not enough to purchase a house but they will have enough to rent a house.

That will push rents up, which will in turn push up prices are cash chases yield.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What are these 400,000 extra people going to do when they get here?

Mine coal?

Work in the cotton mills?

Open chains of corner shops?

Why will they come here and where are they coming from?

All sorts of people.

Some will be natives that left to other shores like Spain returning, others will never have been in Europe before.

Yes the prospects might not be as bright in the UK as they once were but nonetheless the uk is still a top destination were there are jobs, there is security and some goon isn’t going to knock you over the head for looking at him weird (unless he is a policemen :ph34r: )

Past few years we have had a net 400-500k arrive and it is estimated to continue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
EAs will try anything to prop up the housing market, as well as clogging up our forum with utter gibberish.

Yes I have decided to spend two and a half years and 6000 posts to now reveal I am an EA.

The shame :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
affordability will always place a cap on prices.

if there's an auction room with 20 people in it, each of them with £20 in his pocket and no ability to borrow from anyone outside the room, before an auction for something starts, you don't know what the final price will be but 100% for definite you know that the price cannot rise higher than £20, because people physically cannot bid higher than £20. if another 2 people, or another 20 people, or another 20 million people, join the auction then, unless one of them has more than £20 in his pocket, the same rule applies - the price of the item can never rise higher than £20 - this is most obviously true of all if the new people coming into the auction room are poorer than the ones who were in there previously.

the income multiples that banks are prepared to lend are the key determinant of house prices.

Quite clearly if the housing stock is nearly static and we add 2,600,000 people to be housed we get two things.

1: higher rents

2: higher density (ie say 3 people per house rather than 2.8 etc)

Now with higher rents that means property is yield more cash.

Since the yield is now higher, money flows out of bonds and stocks into property.

2.6m more to house without much more housing will definitely have an upwards impact on house prices

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ha, yes. but that's not going to happen.

scotland participated very fully indeed in the recent HPI, every bit as much much so as the rest of the country, but, famously, its population has declined over time and is currently a fair bit lower than it was even in the 1970s [and, believe it or not, there has been at least some house building in the intervening period].

population can, in extreme circumstances, play a part in house prices, but compared to the supply of credit it's just noise really. the 'scotland' example proves this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Scotland

just think of all the empty houses there must be as a result of all that population decline - under a schoolroom 'supply and demand' argument, surely prices would have fallen to zero, with more houses than people to live in them?

Scotlands population has decreased from 5.18m to 5.10m over 25 years.

that is a decrease of less than 1.5% and i would bet the numbers that are >20 are pretty static.

Plus you can have two opposing forces. Decreasing population vs credit.

Credit is definitely more important than population but all things being equal an increasing population with no increase in houses will lead to an increase of rents and house prices

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Having read Cells' comments over the last couple of years, I do not believe he is an EA and is one of HPC's better posters, having a good grasp of finance and economics, as well as being a bear on housing.

Pay no attention to that fool, his counter arguments consist only of "he is an EA!!!1!"

However, I am not sure that I grasp his logic on this occasion, since most incoming workers do not earn a great deal and anyway, house prices were pushed up more by the availability of credit than demand.

their wages are not relevant, they may not push up prices directly by purchasing but they will push up prices by higher rents.

i agree availability and price of credit are the #1 factor but dont underestimate the impact of 500,000 new people to house PER YEAR with the added fact that the builders have reduced building considerably as they work through historic expensive land purchases. we may now only be adding a net of 50,000 homes or less PA until 2015 but will be adding 500,000 people.

pre bust we were building on net about 150,000 and adding 400-500k people.

so it isnt just that we will be adding another 2.6m people, that isnt important if at the same time we add about 1m more homes. it is that we are adding 2.6m people with only perhaps 300k houses.

Ireland's house prices shot up, but at the end of it, they discovered they had more houses than they had people to live in them. Japan, by contrast, has much more demand than we are going to have, and yet has had 2 decades of falling house prices.

so many things impact house prices. i agree with you that population increase/decrease is not the main factor however it isnt insignificant.

a huge population swing in a short time would definitely impact prices.

2.6m over 6 years is big but not a huge increase. However it also depends where they settle. they will likely concentrate in cities where there are more opportunities rather than a small town they never heard of.

so although 2.6m is only a 4-5% increase. some cities may see a 10% increase.

for example London might go from 8m to 9m in only 6 years.

so that is an extra million people in that city with less than 100k new houses in London.

that will most definitely put upwards pressure on rents in London which will feed through to prices.

The high population = higher house prices argument is intuitively easy and must play some part, but it is only 1 part of the cocktail of factors that influence property prices.

indeed there are lots of factors.

Edited by cells

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   292 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.