Oxford Economics Study Predicts 3% Cut In Uk Gdp As Swine Flu Takes Hold

[bricor mortis]

I would imagine if we got to a pandemic it would be far worse.

Who would use the tube in a pig flue pandemic?

How would they get to work?

Etc

However I would imagine the west would play down pig flue and advise people to continue as they normally do. That way a lot more may catch it but the economy isn’t totally fracked.

In the uk only 1 person has died out of an estimated 3-4000 infected.

If most of us got it and the death rate stayed the same it would “only†kill some 15-20k people which is not a lot. Presumably normal flue kills more and 700k or so people die per year of old age and other causes so 20k vs 700k isn’t a lot.

Unless the death rate picks up we will likely continue as normal with minimal impact on the economy.

You have to factor in the hospitilisation of the ill has been very high, but it wont take much before the hospitals are at breaking point. Especially as the hospital staff go ill themselves. Pray this virus does not mutate to a more virulent strain.

[MOP]

You have to factor in the hospitilisation of the ill has been very high, but it wont take much before the hospitals are at breaking point. Especially as the hospital staff go ill themselves. Pray this virus does not mutate to a more virulent strain.

This is the crux of the matter. At what point does the NHS reach a case load tipping point, after which the level of care quickly falls away?

The virus doesn't really need to become more virulent. The more pressing concern would be Tamiflu resistance picked up from the seasonal flu this winter.

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

there is a significant risk that the pandemic might trigger a set of unfavourable behavioural changes that tip the world into

deflation.

these people dont understand what causes hyperinflation

increcease in currency supply chasing fewer goods

maybe God will alter the virus so it just attacks bankers

[slurms mackenzie]

maybe God will alter the virus so it just attacks bankers

Makes sense, we wouldn't even have to change the name.

[MOP]

these people dont understand what causes hyperinflation

increcease in currency supply chasing fewer goods

maybe God will alter the virus so it just attacks bankers

We need to hold an HPC prayer meeting. "Please God may it strike those who truly deserve it. Amen"

[interestrateripoff]

maybe God will alter the virus so it just attacks bankers

That would be justice.

Swine flu could hit 'over 100,000 cases per day'

I have been thinking this is too much of a coincidence now, we are being prepared so the govt can blame swine flu for the poor GDP figures in 3rd quarter.

Not their fault it was the swine flu.

Obviously that needs an outbreak.

[interestrateripoff]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8130097.stm

The rising numbers of swine flu cases mean trying to contain the virus is no longer an option, the government says.

Ministers said the emergency response would now move to a new "treatment" phase across the UK as there may soon be 100,000 new cases a day.

It means anti-flu drugs will no longer be given to the close contacts of those infected nor will lab testing be done to confirm cases.

The move has been made to relieve the pressure on the health service.

The announcement, which comes into effect immediately, has long been expected.

It does not mean the pandemic virus is becoming more deadly, just that it can no longer be contained.

Cant be contained therefore the GDP figures not our fault.

[MOP]

Did anyone see Sky news just now. They said something about "UK GDP growth could be -7.5% next year" due to swine flu. I missed the full report, so I don't know what they#re on about here.

Did anyone else see it all? How did they come up with minus 7.5%?

Edited July 17, 2009 by MOP

[@contradevian]

maybe God will alter the virus so it just attacks bankers

later mutating to estate agents and BTL's

better dig out "Survivors" on video.

[Selling up]

Someone mentioned Tamiflu above.

Although the government recommends that Tamiflu should be given to all patients, I don't think there is much evidence that it significantly improves outcomes.

I could be wrong, and I have offered it to 5 patients this week (all accepted), but if I come down with Swine flu myself I doubt that I will bother with it...

If any virologists reading this have any evidence otherwise then let me know!

Dr Selling Up

Edited July 17, 2009 by Selling up

[King Stromba]

Is this what the new world order have in store for us with swine flu:

[bogbrush]

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/he...on-1711552.html

I found this pdf report by the group:

http://www.oef.com/free/pdfs/swineflu(jun09).pdf

This could be an unwelcome wild card for the recovery.

Interesting times.

So Gordon really HAD rescued the economy, and then this Swine flu came along and spoilt it all?

Yes, I really believe this.

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/....aspx?ID=349968

The swine flu epidemic could wipe 5% off UK GDP over the next six months and tip the domestic and global economies into severe deflation, a think tank warned today.

Based on previous pandemics we can expect 30% of the world’s population to eventually become infected, with some 0.4% of the infected dying as a result, the Oxford Economics report assumes.

Such a scenario would hit productivity in all sectors as staff become too ill to go to work, the think tank predicts. Additionally, fear of infection would hit travel, tourism and other discretionary spending, as public spaces such as airports, train stations, restaurants, cinemas and shopping centres become no-go zones.

The pandemic is arriving at a time when the economy is still suffering from the financial crisis and recession, the report notes. The ability of the UK government to counteract the fall in discretionary spending will also be severely hampered by the state of the public finances.

‘[There] is a risk that swine flu tips the UK and the world economy into deflation,’ the report says. ‘This is because the pandemic would hit at a time when businesses and banks are still reeling from the economic crisis.

'Rather than catching up on postponed spending, households may raise savings for a longer time. In addition companies that are already fragile after the recession may succumb to this new shock.

‘We estimate that under such a scenario the UK and world economies would fall into deflation. UK CPI inflation would fall to around -1% throughout 2010-12 and UK GDP growth next year could be as low as -7½%.'

Swine flu will be blamed for the collapse in GDP.

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/

Could swine flu tip the world into deflation?

Health experts agree that, while the current flu epidemic that started in Mexico in April 2009 may weaken during the summer, it could re-appear in the autumn, possibly in a stronger form. Using historical benchmarks of previous flu pandemics and of the SARS episode, we estimate the economic impact of a global flu pandemic in the UK. The GDP loss during the six months of the pandemic would amount to around 5% in the UK. That a pandemic is likely to hit the global economy just as it starts to recover from recession could result in the economic impact being larger than would otherwise have been the case, and this could tip the world and UK economies into deflation. UK CPI inflation would fall to around -1% throughout 2010-12 and UK GDP growth next year could be as low as -7½%. 17 July 2009

http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/free/pdfs/u...eflu(jul09).pdf

Updated PDF?

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-...on-1750807.html

Swine flu could tip the UK into deflation and see gross domestic product (GDP) plummet by 5 per cent as panicked consumers stay at home to avoid infection, a report said today.

As workers fall ill and take time off work businesses will struggle to maintain productivity, and those who escape infection will find it difficult to get to the office as staff shortages hit the transport network, the report by economic forecaster Oxford Economics said.

The firm has based its forecast on the effect of the Sars outbreak in 2003 on the Asian economy, which hit leisure spending and caused a collapse in travel to affected countries.

But it warned that the current recession will mean that the UK economy will not bounce back as the Asian markets did and it could take up to four years to recover.

The report states: "This time around, such a sharp rebound is unlikely. GDP would likely remain below baseline for some time. However, by 2011 GDP growth could be above our baseline forecast and the economic loss would be gradually recouped within around 3-4 years.

"But there is a risk that swine flu tips the UK and the world economy into deflation. This is because the pandemic would hit at a time when businesses and banks are still reeling from the economic crisis.

"The fact that UK households' balance sheets are more stretched than in many other countries makes the risk of deflationary dynamics larger than elsewhere. In addition, companies that are already fragile after the recession may succumb to this new shock."

The report also found predictions that a possible pandemic could happen around Christmas could further dent the economy and the UK is most at risk from the economic impact of a pandemic because if its already stretched balance sheet.

It found: "A flu outbreak in the autumn would hit just as the economy starts to recover from the credit crunch.

"It would threaten already fragile businesses and put further strains on financial markets and fiscal balances. This could generate a vicious cycle that postpones the recovery for another couple of years.

"The fact that UK households' balance sheets are more stretched than in many other countries makes the risk of deflationary dynamics larger than elsewhere."

Yep swine flu will destroy the recovery Brown has created and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

This time next year we'd all be millionaires if it wasn't for Mexico.

[MOP]

http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/

http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/free/pdfs/u...eflu(jul09).pdf

Updated PDF?

Yes that looks like an update to me. Updated for the worse as well.

[Guest spp]

How about Gordy saying "we had no choice but to go to the IMF because of the damage to GDP caused by this swine flu"!

:angry:

The idiots know we are finished financially (I hope*) and this a perfect opportunity to distract the sheeple.

* If they don't we are in even deeper trouble!

[council dweller]

How about Gordy saying "we had no choice but to go to the IMF because of the damage to GDP caused by this swine flu"!

:angry:

The idiots know we are finished financially (I hope*) and this a perfect opportunity to distract the sheeple.

* If they don't we are in even deeper trouble!

If the economies of all G8 countries contract at around the same rate (-7.5%!?) then Gordo will have a point.

Of course, in that case the IMF will be useless as all countries will need massive bailouts.

QE is the answer. You know it makes sense.

[MOP]

If the economies of all G8 countries contract at around the same rate (-7.5%!?) then Gordo will have a point.

Of course, in that case the IMF will be useless as all countries will need massive bailouts.

QE is the answer. You know it makes sense.

I'm not sure if the pattern will continue, but the UK is by far the hardest hit country in europe so far in regards to swine flu.

Spain is the only other one to have had a death from swine flu AFAIK.

[council dweller]

I'm not sure if the pattern will continue, but the UK is by far the hardest hit country in europe so far in regards to swine flu.

Spain is the only other one to have had a death from swine flu AFAIK.

I guess the rest of Europe will catch up within a few weeks. Why Spain and the UK? The countries with the most direct airlinks to Mexico and the US?

[MOP]

I guess the rest of Europe will catch up within a few weeks. Why Spain and the UK? The countries with the most direct airlinks to Mexico and the US?

Seems that way.

[interestrateripoff]

If the economies of all G8 countries contract at around the same rate (-7.5%!?) then Gordo will have a point.

Of course, in that case the IMF will be useless as all countries will need massive bailouts.

QE is the answer. You know it makes sense.

If we see that sort of contraction, QE certainly won't be the answer the blackhole will be too big. I would guess if that happens the majority of banks will be forced into bankruptcy.

[numpty]

Swine flu reminds me of the SARS and bird flu panics. Few deaths, mass hysteria, extreme measures taken, lots of profit for pharmaceutical companies and their shareholders. Ad infinitum for almost a decade.

The millenium bug was the worst

[aussieboy]

This group seems to be independent (unlike government funded think tanks etc):

http://www.oef.com/OE_About.asp

Doesn't say how much of their output is from MBA students doing a research project.

[aussieboy]

No you could not-pure unadulterated bullshite Im afraid, especially given how Q1 alone of this year has unfolded:

We were totally and utterly screwed long before swine flu reared it's ugly head and without even considering it's effects on top we were headed for a facking sight more than 3% drop in GDP by year end if the economy continues on it's present trajectory.

Still, Im sure the politicos would love to be able to conveniently pin the blame for the recovery not materialising on swine flu....

Why not read the original post: the GDP drop is that attributable to swine flue so any drop in total will be additive.