godless Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Green shoots: Signs of economic recovery?Green shoots of recovery are thriving in the UK. Record high-street sales and optimistic economic forecasts show the only way is up for a Britain battered by the global slowdown. Here are 20 reasons why the recession is all but over By Rosemary Lobley and Andrew Johnson Sunday, 17 May 2009 1. Retail sales grew by 6.3 per cent in April, their fastest rate in three years, the British Retail Consortium said. Related articles 2. Long-haul flight bookings were up 2 per cent in the past two weeks, with demand surging for trips to Jamaica, Egypt and the Dominican Republic, according to TUI, which owns First Choice and Thomson. 3. Sainsbury's has unveiled better-than-expected full-year profits, up more than 11 per cent at £543m. 4. High-street bakers Greggs said like-for-like sales picked up by 2 per cent in the 19-week period to 9 May. Customer numbers have been improving since a snowbound February, and they are now around the levels seen this time last year. 5. New property buyer enquiries rose for a sixth consecutive month and at their fastest pace since August 1999, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. 6. The pound rose to its highest level against the dollar in almost six months on Tuesday to close at $1.5270. 7. The scrap value of an old car has shot up by 20 per cent since January, according to Cartakeback, a network of 250 authorised scrapping facilities with manufacturer contracts covering more than 70 per cent of the vehicles on UK roads. Scrap metal prices dropped through the floor last autumn. 8. Housebuilder Redrow is to restart work on some mothballed schemes and begin work on new sites as it believes the market has steadied. 9. Billionaire investor George Soros said the global meltdown had been averted: "National economic stimulus programmes are starting to take effect. The downward dynamic is easing." 10. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said the UK recession is bottoming out: "The UK is showing tentative signs of, at least, a pause in the economic slowdown." 11. HSBC hailed a "resilient" start to 2009 as it announced record investment banking results. The group has reported first-quarter pre-tax profits "well ahead" on last year. 12. Oil prices hit $60 a barrel for the first time in six months. 13. A survey of 200 companies by Lloyds Banking Group showed business confidence rose for the second month in a row in April, with one in three firms expecting brighter trading conditions in the coming year. 14. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said Britain's economy had stabilised last month. 15. World equity markets have rallied sharply since early March, with key indices up more than 30 per cent. 16. JPMorgan, the investment bank, said US shares could rise by 20 per cent and most Asian stock markets could gain 25 per cent by the end of 2009. "The global recession is almost over. June would mark an end of the US recession," Jan Loeys, head of global asset allocation, said. 17. Insurance giant Legal & General reported first-quarter sales ahead of expectations. The group said worldwide sales increased by 3 per cent during the three months to the end of March to £382m, ahead of consensus forecasts of £319m. 18. The FTSE 100 share index rose by 9.5 per cent in April. The actuarial firm Watson Wyatt said share prices had continued to improve since the end of last month. 19. Profits at Barclays leapt 15 per cent in the first three months of the year, from £1.1bn to £1.3bn, with one analyst calling it potentially "the best quarter" the bank has ever had. 20. The green job market is thriving. Opportunities in Britain's renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainability and corporate social responsibility sectors have risen by 58 per cent over the past year, according to Acre Resources. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ry-1686288.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest มร หล Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ry-1686288.html is right. Speaking to business leaders in the UK, they tell me the place is done for, next 10 years in economic wilderness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grizzly bear Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 is right.Speaking to business leaders in the UK, they tell me the place is done for, next 10 years in economic wilderness. yes, and thats why i see a 10 year japanese style house price slow sticky decline...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 So the fact that unemployment is rampant in the US and the UK is irrelevant? Wages are on the way down and this will somehow lead to a consumer boom? The price of everything that people actually want/need is going up and this helps the economy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 "Airline stocks were in the red early Thursday after the major U.S. carriers reported sharp declines in May traffic demand." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/may-traff...r-people-flying Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest มร หล Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 (edited) yes, and thats why i see a 10 year japanese style house price slow sticky decline...... Hmmm . . . most likely. It kicked off with a very sharp decline due to the sudden vacuum of credit, now likely to just soldier on downwards for, well yes, a decade? But so will wages. It's all relative. Edited June 4, 2009 by มร หลบเลี่ยง Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete.hpc Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 High-street bakers Greggs said like-for-like sales picked up by 2 per cent We're saved! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 We're saved! 17. Insurance giant Legal & General reported first-quarter sales ahead of expectations. The group said worldwide sales increased by 3 per cent during the three months to the end of March to £382m, ahead of consensus forecasts of £319m. But they are also cutting over 1000 of their 8500 workforce. And that is without mentioning the entire IT department outsourced to TCS in India. They do a lot of mortgage protection business as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laura Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 By Rosemary Lobley and Andrew JohnsonSunday, 17 May 2009 An extended shelf life for the Indy is definitely not a green shoot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juvenal Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 (edited) We're saved! 'Mmmm.. darling..this Greggs pastie is delicious.. 'The shop tray is nearly empty! Buy two more for our flight to the Dominican republic!! 'Only after we've bought that house at asking price!!' Edited June 4, 2009 by juvenal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 But they are also cutting over 1000 of their 8500 workforce.And that is without mentioning the entire IT department outsourced to TCS in India. Which is one of the reasons that the stock market and the housing market head different ways. On one hand we have stable or increased profits as a result of cost cutting. On the other we have more people who won't be buying a house in the near future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest มร หล Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 I think we are well past green shoots. Lets get real. Things are on the up. Put your head in the sand if you like. I will say, at least you say it politely and without malice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haventaclue Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 I think we are well past green shoots. Lets get real. Things are on the up. Put your head in the sand if you like. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prof Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 I think we are well past green shoots. In fact, you seem to have picked the leaves and smoked them. I`m wondering if you are always so premature ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haventaclue Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 is right.Speaking to business leaders in the UK, they tell me the place is done for, next 10 years in economic wilderness. and I dont know which 'business leaders' youve been speaking to, but right across my sector prudent forecasts and targets are being exceeded. Looking very good for 2010 despite our reticence of last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest มร หล Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 and I dont know which 'business leaders' youve been speaking to, but right across my sector prudent forecasts and targets are being exceeded. Looking very good for 2010 despite our reticence of last year. One was a real NuLab follower of Brown's economic nutty stuff. Now says the it's bleak for a decade and how pointless the whole boom was. We used to have rows about it 3 years ago. We don't now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reck B Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 is right.Speaking to business leaders in the UK, they tell me the place is done for, next 10 years in economic wilderness. Shhhhhh! You're not helping the economy by talking it down like this. The way to get us out of this mess is to get a critical mass of people to read lists of reasons why we'll be ok in national newspapers. We'll then be okay. Okay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reck B Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 and I dont know which 'business leaders' youve been speaking to, but right across my sector prudent forecasts and targets are being exceeded. Looking very good for 2010 despite our reticence of last year. Yeh, but you work in the insolvency sector. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest มร หล Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Shhhhhh! You're not helping the economy by talking it down like this. The way to get us out of this mess is to get a critical mass of people to read lists of reasons why we'll be ok in national newspapers.We'll then be okay. Okay? okay I'll be quiet . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest theboltonfury Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 I think we are well past green shoots. Lets get real. Things are on the up. Put your head in the sand if you like. That'll be why my wife and I are further trimming our expenses every month. Getting rid of even more stuff. It's ******ing booming out there ain't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loginandtonic Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 from another thread And now you know that Rinoa and Hamish were right all along. you 2 make me laugh but this site needs alternative voices so whoever you both are, thanks - as for the green shoots story or filler - dont think so because... charity shops doing half price sales - check[Y] car boots have few sellers - they've given up - check[Y] buyer scrum at some charity shops but no sales - check[Y] discount shops like Wilkinson/P'land very busy - check[Y] neighbours home cause jobs now p/t or redundant - check[Y] QE and very low int rates suckered some buyers - check[Y] desperate vendors ramping while they can for all their worth - check[Y] inexperienced people claiming green shoots - check[Y] frankly its all laughable, we're in a megamess and in debt for a generation or two, in the words of The Carpenters, we've only just begun or midway at best imho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellerkat Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 From Willem Buiter (not historically a bear) yesterday: Fiscal options for the UK: sovereign insolvency, inflation or serious fiscal pain We are now out of Madovia and in the land of fiscal scarcity. With r = 0.03, g = 0.025 and b = 1.00, the UK state has to generate a permanent primary surplus plus seigniorage equal to at least 0.75 percent of GDP for the state to remain solvent. If market nerves put a default risk premium of 100 basis points on top of the risk-free rate, the required permanent primary surplus plus seigniorage becomes 1.75 percent of GDP. Parse that, O Sage of Maidstone! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphmalph Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Well a bit of an annecdottal but I drove down the motorway to bristol today and I have not seen so many lorries on the road for a long time. Jan Feb when I was driving you could play spot the lorry. Today the inside lane was packed with them and I kept getting held up with them overtaking each other. Another Interesting point I noted was that very, very few of them were foriegn lorries. Perhaps Euro goods too expensive for us and we are restocking with local goods. Read what you want into it but my Lorry Counter economic recovery predictor is flashing almost green. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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