Media articles NORTHERN IRELAND Hpc Related

[Shotoflight]

I'd like to see the effects of our £4 billion of cuts (mostly yet to be implemented) bed in before calling green shoots.

I see no positives in the short term that will bring confidence back to consumers and affordable mortgages will have to be, well, affordable.

It wouldn't surprise me if the average wage in NI goes backwards. And the banks, for the most part are chastened and wary of property and land.

Apparently there's a housing boom in Norway (and London). Brace yourselves!!!!!!

[yadayada]

Can it be turned on and just exclude NI? Extremely unlikely.

Why's that?

Edited November 1, 2012 by yadayada

[Belfast Boy]

The end of the housing crisis

Boston Globe 31-10-2012

The UK never really had a housing crisis. So how can it end?

If they had allowed prices to correct then we could be near the end by now. Could the UK have a recovery without having a correction?

Do you think the US could come out of their housing crisis as the UK enters theirs?

Like you said lets wait 6 months and see. I think next year is going to be a really interesting.

[2buyornot2buy]

Piece today in the printed Irish news on co-ownership. They have secured another 50 million of funding from BOI and barcalys for another 2500 purchases using the scheme.

The total number who have used the scheme is 22500. Easy to over pay when you only needs to worry about your 25%. Great security for the bank as the housing association and by extension us own the rest. Builders get some transaction volume and normal buyers get to compete with people who can't really afford to own a house but have access to someone else's money.

This scheme is ridiculously expensive to administer. Jobs for the boys.

<rant alert>

I have to say living in Belfast i am getting more and more disgusted at the number of HA developments, the buying up of unsold developments and the public money getting pumped into those useless inefficiency organizations. I continue to save, pay thousands in tax and watch it get wasted to house people who have no intention of ever contributing.

<end rant>

[subby]

<rant alert>

I have to say living in Belfast i am getting more and more disgusted at the number of HA developments, the buying up of unsold developments and the public money getting pumped into those useless inefficiency organizations. I continue to save, pay thousands in tax and watch it get wasted to house people who have no intention of ever contributing.

<end rant>

100% correct. No intention of ever wanting to work either. Just get pregnant at 17 and get money thrown at you. Why bother working when you can almost get as much money from benefits, as working and paying child care costs just to get to work int he first place!!!

:angry: :angry: :angry:

[Shotoflight]

Housing co-op gets £50m funding hike

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/housing-coop-gets-50m-funding-hike-16232564.html

Two high street banks have put £50m into Co-Ownership Housing, the association which helps people in Northern Ireland get on the property ladder.

The Bank of Ireland and Barclays' injection announced today is the biggest ever one-off funding arrangement for a housing association and is to be allocated between now and March 2016.

It will enable Co-ownership Housing to buy shares in an estimated 2,500 houses - which will be 'co-owned' with individuals who buy shares of between 50% and 90% which they can later increase.

Around 22,500 households have bought homes through Co-Ownership since it was set up in 1978 to help those with low-incomes and first-time property buyers.

Cameron Watt, head of the Northern Ireland Federation of Housing Associations, said the funding was "a real endorsement of the business model and record of delivery of Co-Ownership Housing".

Paddy Gray, professor of housing at the University of Ulster, said the funding was good news: "Any money coming into housing will be welcome. There is a shortfall of 4,000 of new homes, according to the housing strategy published last week by the Department for Social Development (DSD), with 11,000 homes needed ever year and just 7,000 being built."

Niall Quinn, head of structured finance in Barclays Ireland, said the institution had "extensive knowledge and experience" of working with Co-Ownership Housing and other social housing associations.

Alan Crowe, chief executive of Co-Ownership Housing, said: "We are committed to playing a significant role in supporting affordable home ownership."

Ian Sheppard, Bank of Ireland head of corporate banking, said the arrangement highlighted the role played by Co-Ownership Housing in making affordable homes a "realistic prospect".

The funding boost comes as the Northern Ireland Housing Bulletin from the DSD gave the latest figures for the building of new houses.

Work started on 990 new dwellings from April to June this year - down 24% on the same period last year. Only 1,300 new houses were finished - down 34%.

[Shotoflight]

Mortgage shortage for first-time buyers 'remains'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20181287

More than two-thirds of the mortgage products available on the market in the UK at the start of November required a deposit of at least 20%, according to figures from financial information service Moneyfacts.

The proportion has changed little since a month earlier. The same can be said for the relatively low levels of mortgages available for those offering a deposit of 10% of a property's value or less.

Mortgage rationing has been in effect since 2008 when lenders realised they had to start building up their reserves to withstand further financial crises.

They also started to fear that big falls in house prices might undermine the security of the mortgages they had already granted to people with very small deposits, or even no deposits at all.

[Shotoflight]

The NICE and not-so-NICE of NI's 'new normal'

http://www.jprblogwire.com/2012/11/the-nice-and-not-so-nice-of-nis-new.html?m=1

Fast forward five years and one would be forgiven for thinking that the ‘new normal’ is the polar opposite; one of continuous declines in employment and output. Private sector output has fallen by over 17% since Q2 2007 and is back to levels last seen in early 2003. Had the growth rates that occurred in the old normal continued, Northern Ireland’s private sector output would be 45% higher than what the latest figures for Q2 2012 suggest it is. If we had half the pre-recession economic growth rate, it would be 2022 before we clawed all of this lost output back.

Meanwhile, in the labour market, 40,000 people have been added to the dole queue over the last four-and-a-half years, with almost 55,000 jobs lost in the last four years.

In understanding the ‘new normal’, it is important to recognise that much of the growth between 2003 and 2007 was abnormal and painted a veneer of false prosperity over an unsustainable growth model. The drivers of growth were boosted by unsustainable increases in credit, debt, public expenditure and having Europe’s fastest growing economy – the Republic of Ireland – on our doorstep. These were freak conditions

Private sector output, employment and house prices cannot and will not keep falling indefinitely. The house building sector is currently building fewer houses relative to population than at any time since the 1950s. Mortgage activity for home movers has recently hit its lowest level since 1974. Construction and Business Services and Finance activity is some 40% and 51% below their respective pre-recession peaks. These trends cannot continue and, in time, levels of output in these areas must rise.

when it comes to tourism, record highs of the positive kind are the current ‘norm’, and a ‘NICE’ decade of tourism growth lies ahead.

[Shotoflight]

Northern Ireland construction freefall translates to job cuts

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/northern-ireland-construction-freefall-translates-to-job-cuts-16234310.html

Northern Ireland's construction sector has been in freefall for the past four years, and Patton Group is but the latest in a series of household names to feel the pain of downturn.

The slump in property prices and credit crunch has led to a tightening of credit, which has cut demand for the new homes which would otherwise have been built by firms such as Patton.

It has also meant that companies like Patton have had to write down the value of their land. In its latest directors' report, Patton confirmed that falling values led to a writedown of £4,885,368 on its land assets.

The problems of construction companies have translated inevitably into job losses. Last year, the Construction Employers' Federation said that contracted and self-employment numbers in the sector in Northern Ireland had fallen from around 84,000 in 2007 to around 60,000.

In the second quarter of this year, Northern Ireland's construction sector posted its sharpest quarterly decline of over 8% since the start of the recession. That means construction output is now 40% below its pre-recession peak, two-and-a-half times that of the equivalent decline for the UK as a whole.

[Shotoflight]

Housing associations ‘deliver’ for the Province

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/business/local-businesses/housing-associations-deliver-for-the-province-1-4450931

[Shotoflight]

McCausland rules out call for six-month freeze on government's 'bedroom tax'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20267696

Northern Ireland's social development minister has ruled out any postponement of the "bedroom tax", due to be introduced in April next year.

Housing Associations in Northern Ireland had called for a six-month delay, warning that thousands of people could face "severe hardship".

But Nelson McCausland said: "There would be a very significant cost attached to a delay and I don't think it is necessary."

He was speaking at the NI Federation of Housing Associations conference on the outskirts of Belfast on Friday.

"Bedroom tax" - the under-occupation policy - is a new welfare reform policy that the government says protects the taxpayer from having to pay for a two or three-bedroom house for a single person.

The extra bedroom is a luxury, the government says.

Cameron Watt, chief executive of the Northern Ireland Federation of Housing Associations (NIFHA), had called on Mr McCausland to delay the new tax.

"From next April, social housing tenants in Northern Ireland who are considered to be living in a home bigger than they need, will no longer be able to receive the housing benefit to cover the full rent for that property," Mr Watt said.

"What we are going to have is 32,000 households in social housing in Northern Ireland - whether they are housing executive tenants or housing association tenants - facing a major shortfall in their rent, perhaps up to 25%. That is of huge concern to us."

Edited November 10, 2012 by Shotoflight

[Shotoflight]

For people who can prove they can't afford a home on the 'open market' (average value £100k and falling on Govts RPPI index) this scheme allows them to "own/buy/rent" a house 'worth/valued' almost twice that at £175k. In fairness, Jim fitzpatrick pointed this out in a radio interview a few days ago stating prices had fallen 53%, 11% in the last year, and questioning whether inducing people "of limited means" to get involved in a clearly depreciating asset was wise.

£200m stimulus package 'coming from London'

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/200m-stimulus-package-coming-from-london-16235994.html

Mr Wilson explained that the money was mainly Northern Ireland’s proportionate share of Westminster funding for transport and housing schemes in England which are not being copied here. “We believe we can target it better to meet our needs,” he said.

One example is the UK’s First Buy scheme, a Government partnership with private builders which provides 20% loans to first time home buyers.

“We don’t have that but we are putting £28m into co-ownership housing instead. That allows us to lever in bank finance and allows the housing association to borrow money on the basis of money we had given them,” he said.

The Co-Ownership Housing Association allows house buyers to purchase half the house and rent the other half until they can afford to buy it too.

UK

Almost half of first-time buyers are forced to opt for affordable housing schemes

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/9667715/Almost-half-of-first-time-buyers-are-forced-to-opt-for-affordable-housing-schemes.html

One in six first-time buyers who would have previously discounted the schemes have since changed their views in light of the economic downturn, according to research by Lloyds TSB.

Shared ownership is the most widely understood scheme among first-time buyers – 81pc say they have a good grasp of what is involved – though the same cannot be said for shared equity schemes. Only 64pc were able to confidently say they understood what was involved.

Shared ownership involves buying a share of a home – anything from 25 to 75pc of its value – and paying rent on the remaining share. To qualify, first-time buyers must have an income of less than £60,000 per annum, and be unable to afford a home on the open market.

[BelfastVI]

The logic is just so flawed

You have to look at the 'logic' on a wider field.

Option 1

At the moment is someone enters the 'safety net' of the social housing sector they are given a house for life. This will have to change, but thats another story.

The average state aid in housing benefit is around £80 per week £4,000 pa. How long is life in a social house? assume 20years old to 65years old That is 45 years of almost £200k per person or couple. Under social housing the government also builds the house at at about £130k each. They spend most of the rent on maintenance and overheds.

Option 2

With Co-ownership the Gov puts in around 20% of the cost of the house. Private equity and the purchaser takes up the rest. The government make no further payments and get the money they invested back.

So as well as a return on their investments they have perhaps taken a person off the social sector back.

To me its not the answer to everything but it has its place and appears to be working.

We, as a nation have taken it on ourselves to house the people as a right. That is a noble and expensive gift. The most cost effective method has to be found to deal with this.

[BelfastVI]

I was referring to the fact that you have to prove you can't afford to buy a house before you can get this shared owner ship help. What is wrong with renting if you can't afford to buy a house?

That is illogical

Absolutely nothing wrong with renting. However, it is not always logical to continue this for a lifetime.

Many of the people who are coming to us have rented for the last five years or more. It was fine for a while but they want to buy. There may be many different reasons for this. Those with the deposit, or help for parents go down the traditional route and mortgage 75% to 90% of the house. Others, who dont have as large a mortgage, or have difficulty in obtaining the full mortgage take a mortgage out for, usually 50% of the product and the Co-Ownership company but the other 50% and rent it to the client.

Some decide not to but and continue to rent.

Different circumstances will demand different solutions and the logic in each salutation will differ.

With co-ownership you can own (mortgage) half and rent the other half. Best of both worlds perhaps.

[Shotoflight]

With co-ownership you can own (mortgage) half and rent the other half. Best of both worlds perhaps.

Or worst?

[2buyornot2buy]

You have to look at the 'logic' on a wider field.

Option 1

At the moment is someone enters the 'safety net' of the social housing sector they are given a house for life. This will have to change, but thats another story.

The average state aid in housing benefit is around £80 per week £4,000 pa. How long is life in a social house? assume 20years old to 65years old That is 45 years of almost £200k per person or couple. Under social housing the government also builds the house at at about £130k each. They spend most of the rent on maintenance and overheds.

Option 2

With Co-ownership the Gov puts in around 20% of the cost of the house. Private equity and the purchaser takes up the rest. The government make no further payments and get the money they invested back.

So as well as a return on their investments they have perhaps taken a person off the social sector back.

To me its not the answer to everything but it has its place and appears to be working.

We, as a nation have taken it on ourselves to house the people as a right. That is a noble and expensive gift. The most cost effective method has to be found to deal with this.

Need to research this more but I didn't think that option two is how the scheme operates. I thought the government was on the hook for more.

Also have to factor in the cost of operating the scheme and those (jobs for the boys) 5 people on 80K plus and their pension liabilities. The scheme costs several million to operate and is no way selffunding in that it makes a "profit" to pay salaries and costs.

[Shotoflight]

House prices: Variations in UK market

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20312122

Meanwhile, surveyors reported that buyer demand rose across the UK, except in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The ONS figures suggested that UK house prices rose by 1.7% in the 12 months to September.

This included a 1.8% growth in prices in England, a 1.6% increase in Wales and a 0.9% rise in Scotland, but a 10.1% drop in Northern Ireland.

[Shotoflight]

Good Morning Ulster this am

1.36.34 in discussion on reposessions. Towards the end Jim Fitz - 1.43.41 - says the banks are only now getting round to residential debt having ignored it for 4 yrs and it is likely to get much worse and reposessions speed up - no economic boom, banks under pressure and interest rates can go no lower. An absolute crash, says he!

Peak home ownership at peak prices - big % in neg equity - much higher than outdated figure of 70,000.

Worth a listen

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01nvr78/Good_Morning_Ulster_16_11_2012/

[Shotoflight]

Repossessions up by almost half

http://www.u.tv/News/Repossessions-up-by-almost-half/cc9a7903-cc09-4870-bf0e-12c8f31b9944

According to the latest figures released by the Courts Service, there have been 558 mortgage cases from July to September this year - a 46% rise on the same period last year.

The court made 562 decisions about those cases - up 45% on last year.

And 392 of these were possession orders, meaning the defendant lost their home.

The Housing Rights Service told UTV there are a variety of reasons this is happening.

"Certainly in the last quarter alone we've seen a 50% increase in the number of people who are contacting us, and it's a variety of reasons," said Ursula Toner.

"There are people who no longer believe they'll be able to maintain their payments, there are people who can't pay their payments, maybe making partial payments.

"These are people who maybe perhaps suffered a job loss via redundancy. Perhaps they have received an income shock, even something as simple as reduced hours."

Northern Ireland has not seen the same rise in house prices as the rest of the UK since the housing bubble burst - and many people have found themselves in negative equity.

The dole queues have also been getting longer, with figures released on Wednesday showing another 600 out of work in NI.

The monthly claimant count for NI was the second highest among the 12 UK regions, at 7% compared to the average of 4.8%, according to the latest figures.

There are now 64,100 people here claiming benefits.

While the region is now out of recession, many people including those affected by the latest repossession figures may not feel that way.

[Shotoflight]

New image, same service, still problems

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/business/local-businesses/new-image-same-service-still-problems-1-4489934

THERE are signs of stabilisation within the economy, Danske bank chief Gerry Mallon said yesterday but improvement will be slow and more businesses will fail to survive the property crash and resulting recession.

Unfortunate he said he saw “very little confidence, very little exuberance and very little future investment” amongst local companies backed be a similar hesitancy amongst consumers.

“We see things stopping getting worse but there’s very little sign that there are fundamental drivers to make things get better and I think we need to see an improvement in the global, European and national economies before we start to see any fundamental growth in Northern Ireland.”

With many companies still ‘hamstrung’ by property debt he said they faced a frustrating time.

“Effectively it’s a bad investment for them - it’s not going to destroy their business but it’s going to reduce their businesses ability to perform and grow in the future.

Similarly, he said conditions would remain hard for the construction sector.

“I think there are businesses that have been struggling for a long time to keep afloat and that have just about managed to keep afloat.

“There are still some companies living hand to mouth who have used up a lot of their reserves and there is still potential for more companies to get into difficulties, but it will not be for a lack of support on our part; we are doing what we can.”

[Shotoflight]

Don't panic. This story is from the US.

I'm not directly implying that the same occurs here but remember they did head into this thing 6 to 12 months before us. The US has now recorded 5 straight months of HPI and its perhaps time to take notice of it.

[/font]

More US housing stuff

Bernanke blames banks for holding back housing market

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20351761

Ben Bernanke has said that the overly stringent lending requirements of banks are hurting the US housing recovery.

In a speech, he said the housing market showed signs of recovery but was "far from being out of the woods".

The Federal Reserve chairman said "the pendulum has swung too far" from the easy lending days of the housing boom.

While mortgage interest rates have fallen to record lows, he said many borrowers, especially minorities and low earners, could not get a loan.

The Fed has been actively supporting the housing market since September, by restarting its policy of buying up mortgage debts.

It has helped to push long-term average mortgage interest rates down to new lows, setting a record of 3.34% for a 30-year fixed rate on Wednesday.

However, Mr Bernanke complained that "overly tight lending standards may now be preventing creditworthy borrowers from buying homes, thereby slowing the revival in housing and impeding the recovery".

The housing sector traditionally leads recoveries in the US economy following recessions, and the weakness of the housing market is a major reason why the recovery has been so sluggish this time around, prompting the Fed chairman to dub it "the missing piston".

The low interest rates have prompted an increase in borrowers refinancing their existing mortgages.

However, those able to take advantage of the lower interest rates have been wealthier or higher income earning Americans who are considered more creditworthy by the banks, and who have a lower propensity to spend the extra income they save on mortgage interest payments.

Mr Bernanke noted that 20% of mortgage borrowers remain underwater on their loans after house prices fell 30%, meaning that their mortgages are worth more than their homes and they are unable to refinance and benefit from lower interest rates.

[Shotoflight]

Four people a day lose homes to repossession

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/four-people-a-day-lose-homes-to-repossession-16239065.html

Stormont has been urged to introduce special measures to protect homeowners after new figures revealed the number of repossessions in Northern Ireland has jumped by almost half.

According to the latest statistics released from the Courts Service, there have been 558 mortgage cases from July to September this year — a massive 46% rise on the same period last year.

The court made 562 decisions about those cases — up 45% on last year. And 392 of these were possession orders, meaning the defendant lost their home. That equates to four people a day.

In the rest of the UK repossessions are at a five-year low.

The Housing Rights Service (HRS) advice charity has reported that demand for mortgage debt advice is at an all-time high. It said that, compared to last year, there has been a 50% increase in the numbers of struggling homeowners coming to their service.

Ursula Toner, legal advice services manager with Housing Rights Service, said: “We are not surprised that the number of local families facing the trauma of losing their homes has increased. A lot of our clients have experienced an income shock, such as a pay reduction or actual redundancy.”

Ms Toner said that Stormont must now introduce measures to help prevent homeowners from losing their properties.

“We need a range of tools to help tackle this problem. We recommend that Government establishes a Preventing Possession fund to finance initiatives for struggling homeowners. This fund could provide loans to help pay off arrears and support the introduction of a mortgage rescue scheme to allow homeowners to remain in their homes as tenants,” she said.

Meanwhile, home ownership levels have fallen sharply here since their peak five years ago.

Figures from the Home Owners Alliance, which promotes home ownership, show the percentage of people who own their homes here has fallen from 73.3% in 2007 to 67.5% in 2011, but remains above the UK average of 64.7%, which is the lowest level in 20 qqyears.

Factfile

JULY TO SEPTEMBER 2012

558 mortgage cases

46% rise from last year.

562 decisions were made about those cases

45% rise from last year.

392 people lost their homes

[Guest_Belfast Fubar_*]

Four people a day lose homes to repossession

Boo hoo. About the same number who thought they were so f***ing clever every day during the boom.

Figures from the Home Owners Alliance, which promotes home ownership,

Gotta be the most ridiculous organisation ever.

Looks like a veiled attempt to present the "now is the time to buy", "you'll miss the boat", "renting is dead money" arguments in a friendly way.

[2buyornot2buy]

Northern Ireland house prices continue to fall

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20426403

House prices in Northern Ireland are still falling and are down 12% on this time last year, according to the latest figures.They are now less than half of their peak value recorded around August 2007.

Since then they have fallen by 55%, according to the latest figures released by the Land and Property Sevices.

Apartments have seen the largest fall in value - down 61% with terraced properties falling by 59%.

While prices are still falling, the figures show that the pace of decline is slowing.

In the past three months they fell by just one percent.

Just waiting to see the actual figures.

[paulw0t]

Northern Ireland house prices continue to fall

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20426403

House prices in Northern Ireland are still falling and are down 12% on this time last year, according to the latest figures.They are now less than half of their peak value recorded around August 2007.

Since then they have fallen by 55%, according to the latest figures released by the Land and Property Sevices.

Apartments have seen the largest fall in value - down 61% with terraced properties falling by 59%.

While prices are still falling, the figures show that the pace of decline is slowing.

In the past three months they fell by just one percent.

Just waiting to see the actual figures.

Any links to the HPI stats? BBC has a link to their page but don't appear to be up yet.

I love how the pace of decline is always talked about.. Even if it keeps slowing down prices across the board are still declining!