There Is No Crash In Progress...

[sealaw2000]

Sealord2000

I am interested in areas of the UK which are not falling in price. If you could provide a postcode within 10 miles of your area it would help me gather this information.

Thanks

CM16 or IG10 is as specific as I feel comfortable with, but that covers a wide range of possibilities...

[sealaw2000]

I don't think you are quite in agreement with Sealaw. He thinks that there is no hpc (and seems to imply that there will be no house price crash - a small correction at most). Your experience seems to show that in East Devon you can't get 20% off high-end properties yet. However, you clearly do expect to start seeing 20% or more discounts in another 12 months. I suggest therefore that you do believe in an hpc, since anything much over 10%, and certainly over 20% is a crash, but that you think it has not yet reached your corner of the market.

I sympathise, since I don't think it's yet arrived in my corner of the market either. I may have to negotiate a rather longer stay in rented than OH is happy with, if we are to see the benefits of all the bad news as well as the problems.

db

Just to add to this, my original post was really to voice frustration: as I think I stated later, there are some house price falls in my area, and I don't doubt the general HPC picture, but what is KILLING me is that there is still sentiment out there that prices are rising AND rising rapidly. Unfortunately there is still alot of that sentiment in that area, mad as it might be...

[sealaw2000]

I think we should keep this thread going because it challenges some of those die hards living in 'sibley world'.

Sealaw, give us the postcode of the area you are referring to. Right now what you have written is words/self evidance. Allow the other members of this forum to take a view on the area you are referring to.

I am going to stick my neck out here...........................I bet you don't, which is evidance enough for me to say you are bs'ing.

If I am wrong Sealaw I apologise in advance for not believing you.

This is all totally fair Godley, and no need to apologise. Its totally understandable if you're sceptical, without evidence, and you're being very polite about it (shame not all members have the same manners).

I understand that I could provide evidence to prove what I'm saying, but I'm very cautious about giving out too many details of where I live...probably over-cautious (although, given the rather hysterical reactions from some of the members here, who seem somewhat unhinged, I feel glad I haven't).

It makes no difference to me if you (or any other member) chooses to ignore what I have posted. That said, if you look at how long I have been a member (surely someone wouldn't hang around for so many years of rampant HPI if their heart wasn't in the right place!), and if you accept that I am (as I have stated before) a frustrated FTB that is willing the market down, then I wonder what motivation people think I have for making things up?

[sealaw2000]

You have a lot to say for yourself Sealaw and sadly most all of it is utter ******ing ******

My landlord offered me his 5 bed for 240k now down from 320. The last offer was 250k. But of course there is no crash and no deflation in progress is there

I feel suitably chastised.

[Soul Reaver]

I feel suitably chastised.

Well that's ok then.

The thing is this all takes TIME. It has only just started unfolding (mainstream) and like a train leaving a station it takes time for it to gather pace. There are also a lot of people that do not need to sell their house and take a loss and they will either keep it on at a silly unrealistic price or remove it and resign themselves to staying put. my landlord (mates) still has his on at 310 even though he is offering me 240 now! Rent has also depressed in this area as before xmas 5 bed townhouses where around 1250 and now they are mostly at 900 to 950 (mine is 950)

Personally Im not interested in the curve down Im interested in the terminus. I will be looking at prices entering 2010 and not really before that point and that is when I will make my decision based on if I believe there is still more downwards movement expected. If I think not then that is when I will decide to snap up some bargains.

Of course calling bottom is a personal thing and can only be validated in hindsight.

[kev99]

Doing a quick analysis on CM16 there were 3 sales in november 08 averaging £300k. In the previous November there were 26 sales averaging £400k. That's a fall in house prices in CM16 of 25% yoy using crude stats from houseprices.co.uk.

You're right in saying that asking prices are not being reduced though, but if you include sold stc properties on rightmove you'll struggle to see any. They leave them on for ages as well to encourage the idea the market is recovering. And just because the asking prices are not falling it doesn't mean the value isn't.

Judging by the the amount folk have paid recently and the redundencies starting in the city its probably the case that they can't afford to lower their prices, but they can't live in cloud cuckoo land forever. If you want an £800k property for £600k then bide your time I reckon. Danger is though that the £800k dream house might carry on and become a £400 nightmare or even less...

From past crashes it looks as though you can safely say that the market will stay flat for a couple of years before starting to significantly rise again. Don't lose hope the crash will come at the posh towns near you sometime soon...

[Laughing Gnome]

The seller Gifts 10%? WTF does that mean? I pay you 100% and you Gift me 10%? Why would I do that? there is no purpose.

Surprised at you Bloo Loo. The purpose is to put "equity" into the deal to enable a potless

BTL'er to obtain a "deposit" for their mortgage.

[rex]

I don't think you are quite in agreement with Sealaw. He thinks that there is no hpc (and seems to imply that there will be no house price crash - a small correction at most). Your experience seems to show that in East Devon you can't get 20% off high-end properties yet. However, you clearly do expect to start seeing 20% or more discounts in another 12 months. I suggest therefore that you do believe in an hpc, since anything much over 10%, and certainly over 20% is a crash, but that you think it has not yet reached your corner of the market.

I sympathise, since I don't think it's yet arrived in my corner of the market either. I may have to negotiate a rather longer stay in rented than OH is happy with, if we are to see the benefits of all the bad news as well as the problems.

db

Yes, the movement is not happening in my area in my price range, yet. Either I believe that it will come within the next year or, occasionally, when thinking of my paintings wrapped up in storage, I wonder whether I, and the rest of you, have lost the plot. Either way, the last knock-back on my house offer means that I am now resolved to renting until at least end 2009 to find out. Unfortunately because the interest income on our cash in the bank is shortly about to be hammered (from a healthy 12 month Northern Rock fixed rate of 6% with monthly interest payable, to probably next to nothing), we are planning on moving to a new rental property to reduce the current £2300pcm rent entered into in April this year (at a time when we thought interest income actually gave you a reliable income stream, unlike today) .... it'll probably cost us another small fortune to move as well .... yes, I am utterly f*cked off with the whole thing.

[MississippiJohnHurt]

Here's another "for example" from Rightmove today. Crappy 3 bed bungalow. Last one sold (they're all the same) was in Feb 2008 for £362000. Now very similar one on for £585000. A cool 62% increase in value in the past 11 months.

I noticed your location in your earlier post - from your example above, I think you're talking about Loughton/Theydon/Epping way?

I am a STR in that area, although in no rush to enter the market again I've been keeping an idle eye on Rightmove. Still a lot of delusion - 3 bed semis, very average, going up at 300k plus. But they don't shift, and even the "competitively priced" ones (example: 3 bed semi in Loughton for 249k, similar to new ones going up for 300-350k, has been up for 3 mths plus now and I've had an estate agent trying to get me to "make an offer" on it in the full knowledge that I'd not even consider going above 200k).

If I'm right about the area , this whole corridor at the East end of the Central Line was one of the biggest gainers in the property boom, meaning that people are a) more delusional (thinking "it won't happen in this lovely area what with its tube line and proximity to the forest") and b ) cos people are more likely to have overstretched themselves in order to live in this area so won't/can't lower asking prices. I think the crash will hit places like this last, but possibly hardest.

As a postscript, I found a site that gives average price to earnings ratios for various towns. Loughton was over 12, Epping over 14 from memory. If that's sustainable, I'm Mick Jagger.

PS for anyone who wants a laugh, here's a link to the property in Sealaw's example - if not the actual property, then something equally ludicrous:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...&radius=0.0

Edited January 14, 2009 by FallingKnife

[deflation]

I will be looking at prices entering 2010 and not really before that point and that is when I will make my decision based on if I believe there is still more downwards movement expected. If I think not then that is when I will decide to snap up some bargains.

Of course calling bottom is a personal thing and can only be validated in hindsight.

aagghh!! Cliché alert.

[TheEmperorHasNoClothes]

Here's a "for example". There is a development of truly horrible "luxury" 2 bed 1 bath commuters flats by the station near me. Three blocks, probably built in bid nineties. Ghastly. Looking on Net House Prices, the last two to sell sold in April 2008 for £236000. Prior to that, the previous one sold was in October 2007 for 220000. So, between October 2007 and April 2008 it looks like there was an increase in BTL flats in my area of 7% (or 21% yoy).

Another "for example". Two bed victorian terrace across the road from me. Sold for £245000 April 2007. Now on the market for £320000. OK, that's just an asking price, but it means at least one seller and their EA thinks that there has been HPI of c.30% between April 2007 and today.

My area is outer metropolitan, to the East of London.

I simply am not seeing any material sign of HPC, and in fact am seeing prices rise.

Congratulations - you have found the much fabled "greatest fools".

.. and they purchased in April!!

[sealaw2000]

Doing a quick analysis on CM16 there were 3 sales in november 08 averaging £300k. In the previous November there were 26 sales averaging £400k. That's a fall in house prices in CM16 of 25% yoy using crude stats from houseprices.co.uk.

You're right in saying that asking prices are not being reduced though, but if you include sold stc properties on rightmove you'll struggle to see any. They leave them on for ages as well to encourage the idea the market is recovering. And just because the asking prices are not falling it doesn't mean the value isn't.

Judging by the the amount folk have paid recently and the redundencies starting in the city its probably the case that they can't afford to lower their prices, but they can't live in cloud cuckoo land forever. If you want an £800k property for £600k then bide your time I reckon. Danger is though that the £800k dream house might carry on and become a £400 nightmare or even less...

From past crashes it looks as though you can safely say that the market will stay flat for a couple of years before starting to significantly rise again. Don't lose hope the crash will come at the posh towns near you sometime soon...

That, KEV99, is music to my ears!

[allfiredup]

I've just done my usual rightmove search and stuff was usually coming on at close to 300k 18 months ago.

6 months ago they were coming on at around 250k, and the same ones are still there, unsold at those prices.

And then this morning........ one has come on at 200k!!!

There are maybe some differences in exact location/plot size/condition etc, but generally not a lot.

I am guessing this one is maybe an unfortunate death or something, but that just says where the market really is currently.

I am mildly stunned.

Well how about that!!

The property I noticed that came on at 200k yesterday, has now been removed from rightmove.....!!

What does it mean when that happens?

Has somebody snapped it up instantly and had it removed? Is it a EA scam? A mistake?

[worried1]

Well how about that!!

The property I noticed that came on at 200k yesterday, has now been removed from rightmove.....!!

What does it mean when that happens?

Has somebody snapped it up instantly and had it removed? Is it a EA scam? A mistake?

It could be any of those. I have seen a few examples in the last week or so of houses coming on at seemingly low prices and then going to 'Sold STC' or 'Under Offer' immediately. I am hoping that it might give a positive message to sellers who have had their similar places on the market for a year at peak price.

[SHERWICK]

I noticed your location in your earlier post - from your example above, I think you're talking about Loughton/Theydon/Epping way?

I am a STR in that area, although in no rush to enter the market again I've been keeping an idle eye on Rightmove. Still a lot of delusion - 3 bed semis, very average, going up at 300k plus. But they don't shift, and even the "competitively priced" ones (example: 3 bed semi in Loughton for 249k, similar to new ones going up for 300-350k, has been up for 3 mths plus now and I've had an estate agent trying to get me to "make an offer" on it in the full knowledge that I'd not even consider going above 200k).

If I'm right about the area , this whole corridor at the East end of the Central Line was one of the biggest gainers in the property boom, meaning that people are a) more delusional (thinking "it won't happen in this lovely area what with its tube line and proximity to the forest") and b ) cos people are more likely to have overstretched themselves in order to live in this area so won't/can't lower asking prices. I think the crash will hit places like this last, but possibly hardest.

As a postscript, I found a site that gives average price to earnings ratios for various towns. Loughton was over 12, Epping over 14 from memory. If that's sustainable, I'm Mick Jagger.

PS for anyone who wants a laugh, here's a link to the property in Sealaw's example - if not the actual property, then something equally ludicrous:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...&radius=0.0

I wouldn't pay £100k for that, never mind well over £500k!

[SHERWICK]

I noticed your location in your earlier post - from your example above, I think you're talking about Loughton/Theydon/Epping way?

I am a STR in that area, although in no rush to enter the market again I've been keeping an idle eye on Rightmove. Still a lot of delusion - 3 bed semis, very average, going up at 300k plus. But they don't shift, and even the "competitively priced" ones (example: 3 bed semi in Loughton for 249k, similar to new ones going up for 300-350k, has been up for 3 mths plus now and I've had an estate agent trying to get me to "make an offer" on it in the full knowledge that I'd not even consider going above 200k).

If I'm right about the area , this whole corridor at the East end of the Central Line was one of the biggest gainers in the property boom, meaning that people are a) more delusional (thinking "it won't happen in this lovely area what with its tube line and proximity to the forest") and b ) cos people are more likely to have overstretched themselves in order to live in this area so won't/can't lower asking prices. I think the crash will hit places like this last, but possibly hardest.

As a postscript, I found a site that gives average price to earnings ratios for various towns. Loughton was over 12, Epping over 14 from memory. If that's sustainable, I'm Mick Jagger.

PS for anyone who wants a laugh, here's a link to the property in Sealaw's example - if not the actual property, then something equally ludicrous:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...&radius=0.0

I wouldn't pay £100k for that, never mind well over £500k!

[bagsos]

To be fair to Sealaw, we rented in CM16 for a few months at the start of last year whilst my house was being renovated. The house we rented was a 3 bed ex council property with a significant location disadvantage compared to many houses in the area. The person from whom we rented had thought he had sold it then his buyer had trouble getting finance for the purchase so rented it out to us for 3 months at a cheap rate, whilst his buyer scraped the funds together. As we opened all the landlord's post (he asked us to) I saw the letter from the EA when the buyer was in a position to proceed. I could not believe the price the guy had achieved for his house (and he did sell it in the end, it is on the house price section of rightmove now) - best price ever for the street, and that was in June or July 2008, so the crash had not filtered through to the people of CM16 by then - they are probably a few months behind the rest of the country and still in the denial phase.

However looking on rightmove, stuff is still overpriced at 2007 levels, not shifting very quickly (if at all for anything that is not "character") and I think they are hovering on the brink of a HUGE correction. Bear in mind that a lot of the people who live out there (espec. Epping and Theydon) are either retired or work in the City - we will start to see a lot of forced sales coming through and that will start to pull prices much lower

[tim123]

I wouldn't pay £100k for that, never mind well over £500k!

It is horrid (externally) for the price, isn't it!

(Inside looks ok - except for the blue room)

tim

[deeplyblue]

It is horrid (externally) for the price, isn't it!

The horridest thing is that it was/is somebody's little slice of heaven whilst they watched the TV, and wondered if they'd see their grandchildren this year.

db

[deeplyblue]

Yes, the movement is not happening in my area in my price range, yet. Either I believe that it will come within the next year or, occasionally, when thinking of my paintings wrapped up in storage, I wonder whether I, and the rest of you, have lost the plot. Either way, the last knock-back on my house offer means that I am now resolved to renting until at least end 2009 to find out. Unfortunately because the interest income on our cash in the bank is shortly about to be hammered (from a healthy 12 month Northern Rock fixed rate of 6% with monthly interest payable, to probably next to nothing), we are planning on moving to a new rental property to reduce the current £2300pcm rent entered into in April this year (at a time when we thought interest income actually gave you a reliable income stream, unlike today) .... it'll probably cost us another small fortune to move as well .... yes, I am utterly f*cked off with the whole thing.

Oh Lordy, Lordy - you and me both. I get all worked up about what must be happening to my poor books, which were not packed to last for 18 months. Some of them will be ... NO, not down that road, it's too depressing.

Even a review of our savings is a better prospect. <Starts Excel, and opens banking websites> Perhaps not. Repeats of "num3rs" of the video instead. Anyone?

db