DblEntry

Point her to this thread and in particular the 2nd post on the 2nd page. There are 393 properties now on the market in the SE22 postcode, compared to 299 in my post here as of 4 Feb 2008. I have personally seen a property go SSTC 6 doors down, and then come back on to the market. I have got bored tracking price falls with Property Bee because there are just so many properties, and I am not in a position to buy at the moment. Rents do not appear to be increasing either and I have actually seen some of these fall with Property Bee. Rental properties should not even make it on to Rightmove in a popular London area.

As an Englishman in New York (temporarily working for six weeks), I can confirm that the 'special relationship' is still in tact. I.e. with are both screwed whilst Euroland is looking forward to the Summer vacation. Very annoying to see the Dutch come over with their $1.6:€1!

Heard in the lift today in New York. A- "Why the F*** is the market up 260 points? B- "Don't ask me it's crazy." Both accountants.

There are several more to come, trust me.

Is JK Rowling in BTL?

Coley is actually quite nice as a battered fish (although I know traditionally it is used for cat food). I have had this recently at Sea Cow in East Dulwich where it was £2 cheaper than cod.

As a recent graduate I think you have made an excellent point. I am paying £140 off my student loan each month which definitely hits home. Add to the fact that I had £3k on credit cards/overdraft (even after working in holidays) when I left uni and needed £1k for a flat deposit/first month's rent and a bit more to buy suit etc... that £5k interest-free loan from my employer didn't go far and is being paid off at £104 per month (almost all gone now though). So £250 comes out of my post-tax income before I even start to pay rent of £550 pm, council tax of £60 etc, travelcard of £90 (although I cycle so avoid this now)... Not complaining as uni was great and allowed me to get where I am today, but it illustrates that typical graduates will not be able to save as quickly as some people think for a deposit.

Well if you take the Nationwide report this morning they mentioned that house prices have increased by 47% over five years. So to get back to the position five years ago there needs to be a decrease of 47/147 x 100% = 32%. If you take inflation to be 2% per annum ('real' inflation measured by RPI may be higher), then cumulative inflation over five years is 10.4%. So in real terms prices today should be 110.4% of prices five years ago. To get back to that real price level we need a 37/147 x 100% = 25% drop. Why do people think this is so unrealistic?

Totally agree - I have posted some analysis of this point here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=72123

To start with, I refer to the Nationwide data here: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Mar_2008.pdf I am interested in the monthly index figures, which is on page 3. Let's assume that prices now remain at March 2008 prices for the next year. This would cause the following NSA YOY falls to be reported: Apr 08 -0.67% May 08 -1.35% Jun 08 -2.70% Jul 08 -2.83% Aug 08 -2.62% Sep 08 -3.04% Oct 08 -3.72% Now let's look at SA YOY falls: Apr 08 -0.39% May 08 -0.78% Jun 08 -1.71% Jul 08 -1.65% Aug 08 -2.11% Sep 08 -2.64% Oct 08 -3.69% So even if prices stick at Mar 08 levels for the next few months we should have a 2% YOY fall being reported by August. However, let's take a more realistic scenario in this climate that prices will fall by 2% from Mar 08 levels to Aug 08. SA YOY fall at Aug 08 - 4.1% NSA YOY fall at Aug 08 - 4.6% If we take a 5% fall in this time period: SA YOY fall at Aug 08 - 7.0% NSA YOY fall at Aug 08 - 7.5% These next few months will be an unavoidable turning point. How do I upload my workings?

I hope you're right! I think in better areas it is misleading to look at average salaries though. There are quite a few areas in London which are dominated by professionals (lawyers, accountants etc) who earn probably nearer an average of £50k-£60k.

Well house prices will be falling even faster from now in Middle England as Radio 4 are reporting the story in their headlines snippet as "house prices are 1.5% lower than three months ago". As an aside did anyone catch Charlotte Green pissing herself (I think the first audio 'recording' discovered by some American historians that sounded like a fox fighting set her off)

Three flats (Victorian conversions) are up for sale on my road in South East London. One has gone to 'sold' status on the agents board but the other two had been sticking at 'sale agreed' for at least a month. In passing I mentioned to my fiancée that I reckoned at least one of the 'sale agreed' properties would become available again. Imagine my surprise when this happened the very same week for one of the properties (I think it had been 'sale agreed' for about three or four weeks). This is either because: a) First or second time buyers are becoming wary that a 2 bed flat in South East London that is not near a tube line (albeit is one of the better areas) is not worth £350k The person who made the offer can't sell an existing property because a first time buyer has pulled out Round here I think we will realistically see properties drop by 20% so a good 2 bed is £280k.

As an accountant it does frustrate me when these stories come out of the woodwork. Since Enron, the vast majority of auditors are very strict with their clients on implementing accounting standards appropriately, especially when there is an impact on net assets or P&L. This even goes to the extent of pissing clients off but they understand in the end...

Agreed. Middle class professionals only live in Clapham/Wandsworth/Putney because they can't afford to live in Chelsea and Kensington. As soon as prices start to fall in the Chelsea/Kensington it will have a very obvious ripple effect through all of 'prime' South West London. Why by a house for £1m in Nightingale Triangle if you can get one in Chelsea? This will then impact upon areas like Dulwich which are known for being the next stop once SW4/11/12 becomes too expensive. Yes I am South London centric because that is where I have always lived!

I lived very close to their until last September (Park Hill just off Abbeville Road). I distinctly remember in early 2006 you get a 3 bed freehold house for about £450k-£500k. This unremarkable property on my old road (and AFAIR about 4 doors down) is on the market for £750k. Shows how crazy and unsustainable prices in the area are. How is Clapham now £500k more of a desirable place to live (£250k difference plus same again in interest costs)?!

What does your shoe-shine boy say?

Yes definitely not on Rightmove before in SE22.

There is a massive bubble in East Dulwich to the extent that 3/4 bed houses appear to be on the market at an asking price 50% above the lower end of Lordship Lane towards Forest Hill, or West Dulwich. I routinely see asking prices for £600k for 3 beds in surrounding roads, but Property Bee already shows some evidence of falls of up to £40k in asking price, with lots of stickiness otherwise.

Big 4 accountants in London are currently paying about £28k starting salary rising to about £35k to top performers after two years and £50k on qualification (3 years). If you leave university at 21 it is fairly easy to be on £50k by the time you are 25. I take about accountancy because it is my industry but similar for lawyers too.

Some anecdotal analysis: I have lived in Lambeth (Clapham Common) and Southwark (East Dulwich) in the past three years. Net 4Q 2007 falls are: Lambeth -10.7% Southwark -2% The interesting thing is that in both cases semi-detached and terraced houses rather than flats seemed to be driving the falls. Superficially this would appear to suggest that the most expensive houses are holding up rather well to date, but that there is a squeeze in the typical 'first family home space'. Flats Lambeth -4.4% Southwark +6.2% Semis Lambeth -15.8% Southwark -11.2% Detached Lambeth +7.4% Southwark +3.5% Terraced Lambeth -13.2% Southwark -1.3%

It's 12 March.

Accounting standards don't really dictate that markets are efficient. IFRS just requires that assets and liabilities are valued at 'fair value' where possible. All this means is the price that an independent third party would pay to buy the asset or be paid to take on the liability. Clearly for quoted shares and debt instruments the market price is as close as anyone can possibly get to 'fair value'. However, for other assets and liabilities (such as derivatives) it is necessary to model the profit and loss. Whilst this is not a perfect system you have to consider what was there before. Under old UK GAAP no such concept of 'fair value' accounting existed. Derivatives were held off-balance sheet so a company could potentially have a massive latent liability and this not be reflected in its accounts. The accounting standards can't dictate what the 'risk premium' is - they just require companies to accurately reflect market risk premiums in the valuation of their instruments. So in answer to your question, IFRS is key reason that banks and other FIs are actually coming to terms with the problems they face. Of course, it is not perfect as the off-balance sheet manipulation with SIVs shows.

I pay for all of my food on credit cards. Why? Because using my Egg Money or Amex Platinum I earn about £5 a month just from groceries. To be honest, if you have a good credit record you are probably a bit silly not to pay for everything you can on a credit card and earn the cashback / Air Miles.

That's hilarious hellsbells. We had a similar experience on the rental side with Winkworth's. We had looked at a one bedroom flat in SE22 on the market for £1300 per month, which is just completely out of all sense of market realities. We wanted to make an offer of £1150 per month but Winkworth's informed us that the Landlord is highly unlikely to accept the offer, and basically did everything they could do discourage us from forcing their hand to tell the landlord. We said we wouldn't do business with them and walked down to a neighbouring agent who showed us a bigger flat in the same area with nicer garden for £1100 per month (asking price). Even more amusing was when we walked past Winkworth's later that afternoon they seemed to be having some sort of group meeting. 10 mins later we received a call from the branch manager enquiring as to what had happened!