His Tonyness

I'm new to this forum however I would like to reply to RB's post regarding Alliance and Leicester and their drop in share price. Yes, they have dropped today by as much as 30-35p per share however yesterday they were up and my own feeling is this share is being shorted which is nothing to do with the current market conditions. Furthermore, contrary to popular opinion, A&L and B&B's business model is nothing at all like that of Northern Rock in that not only have they not gone cap in hand to the BOE but they are currently exercising an aggresive share buy back scheme, hardly the actions of a bank/building society in the doldrums I would have thought. To substantiate my claims highlighted above, I enclose below a press release related directly to A&L and B&B. Make your own mind up. MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Fitch Ratings said UK's mid-sized mortgage lenders - Alliance & Leicester PLC and Bradford & Bingley PLC - appear soundly positioned to weather continued difficult operating conditions, but like their peers, they face a more challenging near-term operating environment. The liquidity situation for both banks is sound, helped by a stable retail deposit base and an adequate portfolio of liquid assets, the ratings agency said in a report. Fitch said near-term profitability is likely to be impacted by more moderate growth expectations, a function of tighter and more expensive funding markets together with softening demand as household finances become more stretched. Associate Director in Fitch's Financial Institutions Group, Andrea Jaehne said both the banks' funding is well diversified with retail deposits representing around half of their funding. Both the banks have pre-funded their anticipated 2007 loan growth and, with earlier successful securitisation and covered bond issuance, did not need to access capital markets during the most turbulent period of the recent crisis, the rating agency said. Retail deposits suffered modestly for a brief period when the run on Northern Rock spilled over into other mortgage institutions. However, deposit levels have recovered to pre-crisis level and both banks are actively focusing on expanding their deposit franchises, Fitch said. While Alliance & Leicester's wholesale funding is well diversified by product and geography, Bradford & Bingley's wholesale funding portfolio shows a larger concentration of secured funding at around 80 pct of the bank's wholesale funding, the rating agency added.

I only 50/50 on whether a 0.25% increase is a done deal therefore my betting money will stay firmly in my pocket.

Whilst I agree that a rise is pretty much a done deal, the bleating will continue as it always does and to be honest, it is getting a bit boring month after month.

I definately agree that it's that time of the month again. You can almost set you watch by the bleating windbags begging and pleading the MPC not to raise rates. It'll be the Halifax and co next telling us the housing market is on it's backside and then when the vote is cast and the dust has settled they will be telling us how the property market is still in good shape, supported by sound underpinnings such as a lack of supply, historically low interest rates and historically high employment therefore buy, buy, buy, property prices can only continue to rise....

What's with the global Stock Markets? I have some shares in a company I currently work for and to be honest I'm getting depressed as I watch them tank and it appears to be widespread. Looking at the opening page of the BBC website Business Section, aqll the stock markets are tanking. Can anyone offer any suggestion as to why this is currently happening and if I should hang on to the shares or sell as quickly as possible. By the way, I didn't buy the shares, they came as part of a buy out deal so I'm not losing money in the real sense of the word as I haven't invested anything however I'm losing money when I look back to the price they were when I was allocated them.

Ah well, regardless of the America situation, this doesn't bode well for UK inflation. Merv and Gordon were fully expecting the price of oil to drop and stay that way for some time, this would then impact on the CPI figure as drops in bills and transport costs feed through the system. Now oil is back at over $70 a barrel (up from around $50 at the beginning of the year and it's peak last time round was only approx $78 wasn't it?) UK inflation is definately on the increase.

You've got to remember, Gordon needs all the money he can lay his hands on to not only pay the salaries of politicians but to also fund their huge expense accounts which we are no longer allowed to see the detail of given they voted themselves to be taken out of the freedom of information act (thus ensuring we cannot have access to the sleazy goings on and rip offs at our expense).

Although news like this is always welcome, I'm not jumping to conclusions just yet. If, in three months, they are still reporting along the same lines as this then that is when I'll begin to show some optimism that this madness has indeed ended.

I've got to say, I agree with D23 on this one. For a website dedicated to the hard done massses and overpriced property, there are an awful lot of dodgy ads plastered around. Case in point, as I type I am reading the following in bold at the top of this site, "Low risk global property - Minimum cash down, high yields and exit strategies. 25%+ returns yr 1"

Let's face it, they couldn't possibly make a new series now without clearly identifying the market is slowing (except in London) and how good for business would that be??? Keep showing repeats from three years ago and Joe Public will still believe that increases (outside London) of 20 to 25% are still poossible.

I'm not too bad, that's consecutive monthly falls in Yorkshire and Humber where I live, down 0.8% in May and now down 1.3% in June, 2.1% in 2 months, over 24% if thisw continues for a year, wahayyyyyy. However... I cannot see this happening for althought Righmove are out there, bragging how pricres are still rising and that 'sound fundamentals' and 'a cronic housing shortage' are driving the market and therefore we will not see a crash anytiume soon, give them a week or two and they'll be trotting out the pre-written amble stating the housing market is very fragile and any interest rate will push it over the edge and lead to a full blown slump.

Fragile housing market? And there was I thinking the housing market was in 'rude health' as it is being underpinned by high employment, historically low interest rates and a shortage of affordable properties. Silly me.

Even if this does not fails to ignite the touch paper needed to cause a crash, I think it is significant that such a bearish article is appearing in what some would label 'gutter press' as I would imagine this kind of tabliod is read by far more of the ordinary 'working class' than say, the Financial Times or any other such broadsheet. Even if a crash does not materialise, just the brakes on the ridiculous levels of HPI witness recently would be appreciated.

If the primary reason for the increase was the avoidance of paying for HIPs, one would have expected the figures on Rightmove to drop dramatically when news of the postponement was revealed. Where I live, the number of properties for sale is still increasing, albeit not dramatically but increasing nonetheless. This is possibly a move by RICS to calm the market a little by relating the increases to the HIPs thus diverting attention away from issues surrounding affordability and the possibility that the market has indeed peaked. The last thing they need is a stampede for the door.

I would imagine people will take on a 50 year mortgage in order to 'get on the ladder' then in a couple of years re-mortgage and continue to re-mortgage and with every passing re-mortgage hopefully bring their term down. Failing that, they'll enter into one with the mindset of a tennant, never having a hope of paying it off however using it as an alternative to renting whereby instead of paying a landlord, they'll take out the mortgage, pay it for about 25-30 years then sell and move into council housing with the added benefit of paying nominal rent. From the sale they'll have enough to pay off the mortgage (hopefully) and have a few quid left over for their old age or the family. The upshot: they get to tell overyone they are on 'the ladder', the banks make yet more money, the HPI machine keeps rolling along and Gordon is a happy bunny as his economy keeps ticking along while Britain's debt mountain grows to ever more heroic proportions.

Isn't that one in the same thing? I'm not prepared to pay the ridiculous amounts the Estate Agents are valuing them at, neither am I willing to pay the equally ridiculous amounts the seller is asking either. There is a figure I am prepared to pay but I can almost certainly guarantee it will not be accepted therefore I would say houses have become more expensive. I would also say it isn't housing induced debt or self induced debt, I would say it is socially induced debt as your seen as something of a pariah if you haven't bought.

I don't know about that however I do think sentiment has finally turned. Admittedly, home loans are still at high levels however the lag effect of the interest rate rises are still taking effect. And while this is good news, what I find more interesting are the levels of bearish articles currently circulating in the press, Merv's comments to borrowers about only taking on debt you can afford to pay back if rates were to rise and finally, the bullish articles stating 'sound fundamentals' will continue to support the market in the long term.

I found this comment very interesting, "The Office for National Statistics said disposable incomes rose at the slowest rate in half a century last year." We really are being beaten on all fronts now. House prices are at unheard of levels, interest rates are edging ever higher, we're being taxed to the hilt by the Labour Government and wage inflation is slowing down. I don't know what the outcome of all this will be however as things currently stand, the future looks a risky place to be.

A quick question for you Harris. What have mortgages (fixed or otherwise) got to do with the BOE's decision to raise interest rates? According to them, they do not target asset inflation (if they did, we would have been well into the 8 to10% catagory by now), they target general inflation therefore your theory that rates may be too high at the moment given the BOE have underestimated how many people are on fixed rates doesn't really hold water. Neither does your theory that it will fall back to 2% Q1 next year given food prices are rising, company pricing power is on the increase and Oil is approx $70 a barrell and rising. To a man, these would indicate inflation is set to climb.

A very good article however I fear nothing will be done about it. BTL landlords are saving the Government and Local Councils enormous amounts of money being tied up in empty housing. When a BTL landlord has an empty property, it costs them however when the council has a property empty, it costs the Council Tax payer and the Council. I fully expect the tax breaks to continue.

It was always going to rise, the MPC meeting is over for this month and they didn't vote for a raise in the base rates. Two days before next month's meeting and all the usual sob stories will be rolled out such as "the housing market can't afford a rise" or "think of the homeowners" or one of RICS favourites, "a rise could damage market stability". The MPc will then probably hold again as Merv trots out the "we're being vigilant" message whilst trying to protect the paper wealth he along with his cronies in the MPC and Gordy have created. I could be tempted to call it a joke but it really isn't funny...

Ok Sevensport, I take your arguments on board and to be honest, I hope they do reverse this ridiculous tax break for BTL landlords however as they seem to be taking the place of council landlords and thus taking the risk with them, I would think it is in the interests of this governent to let the breaks remain. It costs nothing to the government for a BTL landlord to have a house stood empty however it costs local councils. As for downsides and risks, these are present in everything which is future related so yes, the market may collapse and they may get their fingers burned in which case they'll move it back into pensions or stocks and shares. Also, a point worth noting, were it not for councils saving social housing for the benefit brigade or demolishing it, there wouldn't really be a market for the BTL landlord in the first place. Some people genuinly prefer renting and as such, need soneone to rent from.

I would like to start by saying I am not a homeowner let alone a BTL landlord and I am also a bear however I would just like to make a comment which may be of some relevance. I am no fan of the BTL brigade at all however I have noticed there are differences between them and as such don't all warrant the same amount of critisism. The BTL landlords like the maths teachers really are scum, they are buying property in one area at such a rate they probably own more than my local council. To have such a monopoly in one area is wrong as this means they are cornering both the housing market and the rental market. And all this is subsidised by you and me, the tax paying public in the form of tax breaks. Now this is where I will come in for critisism. The small scale BTL Landlord with maybe one or two properties which really are an investment for the future as the pensions industry has been decimated by this government (so they need something to fall back on) don't bother me either way, you cannot blame the ordinary working bloke for wanting to ensure his old age is going to be as comfortable as possible and his kids are taken care of, it's what being a parent is all about. If I'd have been in a position to buy 3-4 years ago, I would have and I'd be safe in the knowledge that my daughter would be well looked after. As it is, I now have a comfortable deposit and can easily afford to buy however the thought of paying double what I would have paid 4 years ago is grating however I don't hold the small scale BTL landlord responsible. I think if I'm to hate and blame anyone for the current situation it would be the MPC for keeping interest rates artificially low, the banks for the lax lending, the government for offering tax breaks to BTL landlords, for not building enough housing and for making pensions not worth investing in thereby forcing people to look to other ways to fund their retirement.

Ah well, a hold gives Joe Public more opportunity to borrow ridiculous amounts of money to get on the 'ladder' and gives them the impression the BOE is not as bad as they make out. It's only storing up trouble.... I wonder if the BOE are taking back handers from the tabloids, Gordy and (the unfortunately or aptly named depending on your point of view) Mr. Balls, the banks, CML, RICS, NAEA and the City to keep this wagon rolling.....

Does anyone else get homocidal tendancies when they see the picture of the gormless looking tw4t (Merv is anyone was concerned) sitting at his desk or is it just me???