Timm

I attatch more importance to Bulls and neithers (who have been right for years) turning Bear, than Bears (who have been wrong for years), suddenly deciding that they are Bulls.

Some regional MoM negative. Not enough for anyone apart from RB to get excited. The only thing that was ever going to stop this market was a credit crunch: the inability of the imprudent to take on further debt. It's coming. But not this month.

No, rather, they are just about to show their true meaning. People have borrowed figures well beyond prudence for years. This will continue until they are unable to continue. You can cut back on discresionary spending all you like, but it is simply impossible to spend more than you earn on a sustained basis.

Maybe STF is just really bad at calling trends? Perhaps his turn to bull should be taken as a panic dump signal by the other bulls?

The first bit in bold may be true. Who knows? From the figures you provide it would appear that either you have an interest only mortgage, or have invested a sizeable lump of capital that you no longer see income from. Either you have voluntarily choosen to pay 55% more per month to live in the same house, without paying off the mortgage, Or you have invested £114,000, losing you about £5100 pa in interest, meaning that you are effectivly paying more than double to live in the same house. You must be very certain indeed that prices will not fall.

Exactly as I predicted: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry667698 (Except I stupidly said Brown would be the one to break the news) In the next six weeks, Mr Brown will announce that to take account of the problems of FTBs in a rising market, the BoE's measure of inflation will be adjusted to include a reflection of housing costs. As house prices take a step backwards in the coming months, this will have the effect of reducing the headline inflation rate, allowing the MPC to lower rates."

Your argument does have some internal logic. However Tewksbury stands at the confluence of the River Severn and the River Avon and thus has no effect on the River Thames.

I live on a narrowboat in Oxford, right next to the weirs. They have all been open for a number of days. This is an urban myth, which I have also been told by a paranoid neigbour, while standing next to the thunderously open weirs. The river is still over the banks though, both above and below the weirs.

I can't tell you what happens generally, but I can tell you what happened in Banbury last time it flooded (2000 I think). I was working for Buckell and Ballard, a local estate agent. Houses (and amazingly, ground floor flats) that had flooded went for about 10% less than before the floods. We sold one where an old lady never moved back in afterwards. When we got it, the house needed to be totally gutted. The floor was rotton and it was infested so badly with fleas the buyer did not even inspect the inside. The front wall was also leaning out from the front of the house by 5 inches at eaves hight (not related to flood). The house sold for just shy of £50k, when ones in good condition would have sold for about £70-75 before the flood. The buyer did the house up, and a housing association paid him the going rate to house a family in need. You don't have to discount by that much to sell shit in a strong market. However if the general market is weak, with lots of choice, then the situation would be different. Edit: house not flat.

I think this is interesting. It forces the lender to price in the risk. The borrower can then look at the known cost and make a much more informed descision. If introduced overnight it would lead to encreased market instability, so there will probably be some sort of gradual encouragement to offer such products. My guess is that they will be known as homepurchase loans rather than mortgages, they will attract an element of tax relief at source, and in the event of default, the debt will only become due if the original lender can show that the correct checks were carried out in accordance with fixed lending criteria. A premium will be charged for a premium product. Meanwhile, mortgages will still be available, but they will be seen as the high risk debt vehicles that they have become. But what do I know?

That's wierd, I was just about to post this, but wasn't sure it deserved it's own thread: "Two things. 1. A huge amount of debt has been created recently, fuelling the “wall of money” in the markets. While those involved in this process are now cash rich, asset rich, most of the general population are cash poor, asset rich. A lot of people here on HPC are cash rich, asset poor. 2. The creation of this debt and the corresponding money has been facilitated by the consumption of finite reserves of fossil fuels. It is the injection of the energy held in them that has enabled civilization to make the vast advances that it has. When it becomes impossible or uneconomic to extract the same amount, industry, finance and civilization will contract. This would mean a retreat in society to a pre-industrial level of life unless replacements can be found. That there are alternative sources of energy is indisputable. However the inability of these sources to fully replace fossil fuels is disputed by many, and has been successfully argued on this forum in the past. This leaves two possibilities. Firstly that our leaders and representatives are knowingly leading us into a huge future contraction (real tin hat stuff), or that a viable future source of energy is expected to come on line. If there is an alternative power source in development, wouldn’t you like to invest your cash in it now? So my question is; what is it? A quantum leap in conventional alternatives? Antimatter? Cold fusion? And how do I invest?"

Lots of comments up there - almost all very critical.

With a name like d23, having a pop at conspiracy theorists would appear at least a little discordant.

Apparently tomorrow (777) is deemed to be the luckiest date of the century, if not millennia and is the first time for ages it has fallen on a Saturday. The number of weddings is expected to break all records. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml...5/wmarry125.xml Meanwhile, in Iraq today brought the bombing of a wedding party, leaving 15 dead. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6275148.stm I sincerely hope tomorrow brings nothing but sun. Edit: changed “in a generation” to “ages”

What became clear to me as I read that is that ml-implode (or their advisors) seem to have more of a grasp of the legal and financial systems than do those who have filed against them. I think this action will lead not only to the oxygen of publicity, but it will also increase their standing, reputation, and the account taken of the message that they bring. I'm not very clever, but whoever filed the initial lawsuit must be a bit dim. It's only going to draw the spotlights...

This explains it: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle2028333.ece Apparently it's an application by Friends of the Earth to draw attention to the proposed new government powers (and reduced consultation) on big schemes.

I agree. What I was wondering is if this might make Eynsham more sensitive and therefore an early indicator. Central Oxford agents are still busy, although maybe that's dealing with the increased inventory?

No really, the City of London expects the application on Monday.

Yeah, 0.25 up. Having said that, I put £2 on up 0.5 last night and got odds of 80. Shall I close out now and take my vast winnings?

Ahh... I used to work for a West Oxford EA which got the occasional place in Eynsham. It's a nice village, but if commuting to Oxford, you either have to join the A40 nightmare or use the toll bridge. I wonder if the Oxford commuters have stopped buying there?

Hi Maffo. Are you in effect, in Wheatley?

I agree. I was letting properties in '94 (maybe '95) that were giving yields of 15%+. But we are currently a long way from that. Prices will fall, rents will rise.

England to be made a protectorate of GB. City of London to be declared a Scottish enclave off the East Coast of Morningside. Dissentors and doom monger-ers to be stoned in the street. It is God's will.

To be fair, we were at the other end of the cycle at that point.