Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

alabala

Members
  • Content Count

    827
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About alabala

  • Rank
    HPC Regular

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    http://
  • ICQ
    0
  1. hello sir, hope you are well

  2. http://www.zillow.com/blog/case-shiller-is-it-really-that-bad/2009/04/02/ UK has never had proper index when it comes to house prices... There are so many gaps in the current indexes and the data from transactions that actually negates using any of them at all. However, there is no such thing as bad data; it is all down to collecting all of the available data, so one can actually create its own proper index related to particular property, or particular area. People reading and listening to the hype or gloom in the media, or on this forum are out of touch as much as the media itself. There are plenty of comparatively cheap houses which of course are presumed as bad sales simply because they are part of auction sales. This is not true in the current climate, because lots of properties are from distressed sellers with no other choice. Also, reserved prices in auction sales also tend to distort the Big picture when it comes to determining the real market price of a property. This is not illegal, and presumably anyone can set their own reserve price. The only way of finding what is happening is by researching all transactions related to particular house including periods of ownership etc... Furthermore the data from the major banks is based on mortgage transactions, more accurately it does not include anything else. Personally , this should be a starting point of reform if anyone wants to put some sanity into the markets. As prof. Shiller pointed only when the data is accurate people can actually include information from any indexes when deciding on buying a particular property. Until then anyone who is buying should do his own research and find out what is going on in particular area. So to get a clear picture of the state of the market, particular area or particular property one should consider every single index or information that is available. Asking prices, average price according to mortgage based indexes, house prices data from the land registry database, auction price data, frequency of transactions, statistics of any other negative or positive factors including noise pollution, crime, amenities, work availability, transport availability, property surveys including price...etc. To trust a single index including the rigged land registry is not a good choice...Everything matter. Auction sales represent half of all residential sales in UK, yet the data is not included. There is no pair event like in the Case-Shiller index, where data is collected only at sale point, but the index also filters-out any foreclosure auction sales data. Anyone serious enough can subscribe or buy data from auction houses. The stupidity of this is that the average person out there is left with nothing more that simple presumptions. Bit this is how it works...if you have experience, knowledge and data you can be ahead of the marked in any climate. Most information cascades builds on presumptions and relating to anecdotal comparative data...if you don't want to be part of one just do your own research. Forgot to say that all other factors such wife's nagging, estate agents' assurances or peer pressure should be excluded from the outset. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/30/house-price-index-market-value I always thought of the current flaws in the system as a business opportunity ...someone eventually would start a valuing service based on all available data from all places and statistics.
  3. And how exactly would the council enforce this scheme?
  4. The only thing that Germany wants is a clearing mechanism for bankrupted Member States. Plain and simple EMF would provide a slaughter house mechanism for the misbehaving MS. There is nothing wrong with that, but whoever thinks that Germany is after a wider oversight is not reading between the lines. There would be European Monetary Union only for MS which deserve to stay in. Fiscal monitoring would be a mechanism which would provide an early signal to the EMF to engage in effectively a bankruptcy for the troubled MS. The mechanism would allow orderly unwind without causing dangerous waves for the EU currency. EuroStat functioning is going to be completely reformed. The obvious idea is that all the phoney bookkeeping masters would be visiting the Slaughterhouse if not behaving properly. Effectively, Merkel has made an offer which any troubled members cannot refuse. Federal Europe with European Treasury is absolutely not in the plan no matter how the MSM is trying to spin this. Game, set & match for the constitutionalists in Germany. Anyway, for the past week European bureaucracy has proved itself clueless, incompetent and powerless to resist the demands of a Powerful MS. Practically this is the End for the ridiculous idea of Europe without responsibility. There will be no free ride from now on. The rosy and prosperous future for European States would only be possible if they work hard and earn it themselves. To all Europhiles, simple note ...go and ***** over your old Europe while is possible. http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20100312&id=11240868
  5. After reading the following I must admit that whoever thought of Europe as a cure for cancer must have been barking mad. Any normal government with budgetary powers would avoid losing these sovereign powers at all cost. It seems that the poor policymakers in Athens are wiling to offer their bottoms to Europe for less money than to the rest of the World. Bravo to the German PM, and Bravo to all German judges t who stood up to the countless infringements on German sovereignty. It's time for all Europhiles to wake up and smell the coffee. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7494718/Has-Germany-just-killed-the-dream-of-a-European-superstate.html Has Germany just killed the dream of a European superstate? So after weeks of Euro-bluff it looks ever more like an IMF rescue for Greece after all, and hence for any other eurozone nation driven to ruin by the wrong monetary policy. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Published: 7:29PM GMT 21 Mar 2010 German and Dutch leaders have concluded in the nick of time that they cannot defy the will of their sovereign parliaments by propping up a country that lied about its deficits, or risk court defeats by breaching the no-bail-out clause in Article 125 of the EU Treaties. Chancellor Angela Merkel has halted at the Rubicon. So has Dutch premier Jan Peter Balkenende, as well he might in charge of a broken government facing elections in a country where far-right leader Geert Wilders is the second political force, and where the Tweede Kamer has categorically blocked loans for Greece. The failure of EU leaders to cobble together a plausible bail-out – if that is what occurs at this week’s Brussels summit – is a 'game-changer' in market parlance. Eurogroup chair Jean-Claude Juncker said last month that such an outcome would shatter the credibility of monetary union. It certainly shatters many assumptions. There will be no inevitable move to fiscal federalism; no EU treasury or economic government; no debt union. It is Stalingrad for the federalist camp and the institutions of the permanent EU government. I remember hearing Joschka Fischer, then German Vice-Chancellor, telling Euro-MPs a decade ago that EMU was “a quantum leap ... creating an inexorable federal logic”. Such views were in vogue then. Any euro crisis would force Europe to create the necessary machinery to make it work, acting as a catalyst for full-fledged union. Yet the moment of truth has come. There is no quantum leap. We have a Merkel pirouette. Paris is watching nervously. As Le Monde put it last week, “behind the question of aid to Greece is a France-Germany match that pitches two conceptions of Europe against each other.” The game is not going well for 'Les Bleus’. The whole point of the euro for the Quai D’Orsay was to lock Germany into economic fusion. Instead we have fission. EU leaders may yet rustle up a rescue package that keeps the IMF at bay, but alliances are shifting fast. Even Italy has slipped into the pro-IMF camp, knowing that rescue costs can be shifted on to the US, Japan, Britain, Russia, China, and the Saudis, lessening the burden for Rome. Besides, too much has been said over the last week that cannot be unsaid. Mrs Merkel’s speech to the Bundestag was epochal, a defiant warning that henceforth Germany would pursue the German national interest in EU affairs, capped by her call for treaty changes to allow the expulsion of fiscal sinners from Euroland. Nothing seems so permanent about the euro any more. Days later, Thilo Sarrazin from the Bundesbank blurted out that if Greece cannot pay its bills “it should do what every debtor has to do and file for insolvency. This would be a suitably frightening example for every other potentially unsound state,” he said, pointedly excluding France from the list of sound countries. Dr Sarrazin should be locked up in a Frankfurt Sanatorium. It was such flippancy that led to the Lehman disaster, requiring state rescues of half the world’s financial system. A Greek default would alone be twice the size of the combined defaults by Argentina and Russia. Contagion across Club Med would instantly set off a second banking crisis. Some suspect that ultra-hawks in Germany want to bring the EMU crisis to a head, deeming delay to be the greater danger. How else to interpret last week’s speech by Jürgen Stark, Germany’s man at the European Central Bank, calling for tightening to head off inflation. This is alarming. Core inflation in Euroland was 0.9pc in February, the lowest since the data series began. It is certain to fall further as the doubling of oil prices fades from the base effect. M3 money has been contracting for a year. Business credit is shrinking at a 2.7pc rate. So, it is not enough for the EU to impose a fiscal squeeze of 10pc of GDP on Greece, 8pc on Spain, and 6pc on Portugal, and 5pc on France over three years, we need a dose of 1930s monetary policy as well to make sure life is Hell for everybody. Be that as it may, Greece’s George Papandreou says his country is in the worst of both worlds, suffering IMF-style austerity without receiving IMF money – which comes cheap at around 3.25pc. So why allow his country to be used as a “guinea pig” – as he put it - by EU factions pursuing conflicting agendas? The IMF option has its limits too. The maximum ever lent by the Fund is 12 times quota, or €15bn for Greece, not enough to nurse the country through to June. The standard IMF cure of devaluation is blocked by euro membership. So Greece will have to sweat it out with a public debt spiralling to 135pc of GDP next year, stuck in slump with no exit route. The deeper truth that few care to face is that under the current EMU structure Berlin will have to do for Greece and Club Med what it has done for East Germany, pay vast subsidies for decades. Events of the last week have made it clear that no such money will ever be forthcoming. Let me be clear. I do not blame Greece, Ireland, Italy, or Spain for what has happened. No central bank could have tried more heroically than the Banco d’España to counter the effects of negative real interest rates, but the macro-policy error of monetary union washed over its efforts. Nor do I blame Germany, which generously agreed to give up the D-Mark to keep the political peace. It was the price that France demanded in exchange for tolerating reunification after the Berlin Wall came down. I blame the EU elites that charged ahead with this project for the wrong reasons – some cynically, mostly out of Hegelian absolutism – ignoring the economic anthropology of Europe and the rules of basic common sense. They must answer for a depression.
  6. Yelim ,what about simple entirely informal trilogies which by-pass the established formal machinery, and enforce a policy which is hardly influenced by your representatives. It is simple, quicker and easy. Have a look at how transparent and how well represented is the public in the European lawmaking process when these are used. There is no accountability, and yet "94 percent of codecision bills" are made trough these informal trilogies. You are so well represented that you can probably ask the rapporteur for a date. http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200809/ldselect/ldeucom/125/12504.htm#a14
  7. What about Member states using the full force of the Article 50 of the TREATY ON EUROPEAN UNION to say piss off: 1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. This is absolutely ludicrous idea, they cannot even manage their own arsehole. Why on th earth anyone would put up with an unelected certain 1500 miles away, who actually think he can do better. I would vote any politician who would rethink and reevaluate the EU Membership. I guess these Idiots would also like to take the power of the Bank of England to regulate IR or that of the government to devalue at will. Stupidly enough, these cretins think and obviously presume that they are right form the start. No way that they can apply common policy without common Bond Issuance and Treasury enforcing common fiscal discipline. Now that they know how ******ed up is their EMU idea, the cretins actually think that they can enforce whatever they want. Law and enforceability goes hand in hand, you can create whatever law, but as long as is unenforceable you are spitting a lot of gibberish written down on paper. Anyone of these buffoons from Brussels thinking that they can enforce policy that takes away the powers of each individual government to follows its own budget policies is simply living in a LA-LA land.
  8. You mixing the things up, They, the people, did not borrow money. The private enterprise failed, so the central bank and the government stepped in. If they have left them die as they should have, the country would not have the British and Dutch bankers breathing heavily and puffing around. It is the whole idea of being too big to fail. If the Icelandic Government simply had left them disappear from the earth with all their liabilities and contracts, Mister Darling would not be so optimistic to get his money. Why on the earth the taxpayers should foot the bill for people's failure. It is all down to risk, If you cannot manage risk, the problem of others become yours. Why should I pay for RBS, Halifax, or anyone else's failure...I have nothing to do with their enterprise.The Labour Government should have done the same, leave them die, disappear. Why save something which does not even care for its own safety? fooled by randomness...yet again.
  9. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601203&sid=akKhyXwGvhVY “The cornerstone of Iceland’s constitution is that the nation is the highest judge for the validity of law,” “Now the nation has the power and the responsibility in its hands,” BRAVO x 10000
  10. David Cameron in Conversation with Nassim Taleb http://fora.tv/2009/08/18/David_Cameron_in_Conversation_with_Nassim_Taleb
  11. Wait and see what? "Mr. Seres shored up his own capital position by selling 30 percent of one real estate venture. “Nobody knows what is the value on the market, because no transactions are on the market,†he said. “Nobody buys buildings now. We call it ‘sit out’ in Hungary. You sit and wait. Wait and see.â€"
  12. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/20...bless-mandelson Peter Mandelson has been busy in recent days trumpeting the fruits of the government's economic stimulus. Yesterday's unemployment data, however, delivers a stark message to the business secretary, to Gordon Brown and to Alistair Darling: you are not doing enough. The headline numbers are bad enough – total jobless rose 220,000 in the three months to June to 2.435 million – but more worrying still is the steep climb in youth unemployment, which has prompted very real fears of a "lost generation". Britain's unemployment rate, as measured by the office of national statistics, now stands at 8.0% for people of working age – a level unseen since November 1996. Regional unemployment rates range from a high of 10.6% in the West Midlands to a low of 5.9% in southeast England. Youth unemployment is close to a million. The 2.5 million jobless mark is inevitable; three million number fast approaches; 3.5 million is distinctly plausible. But the devil, as ever, is in the detail. The decline in the total number of employees is especially marked, in contrast to the drop in the number of self-employed workers, which has hardly fallen. The number of full-time jobs has plummeted by more than 650,000; however, the tally of part-time jobs has actually increased by 80,000. That increase disguises a pattern of reluctance, however: 280,000 new part-timers say they couldn't obtain a full-time job. Jobs are scarce. Fewer hours and more low-paying self-employed jobs suggest that incomes are down. Wage pressure remains benign. People are hurting, and it isn't going to get better any time soon. Time to cut back. It is now clear that the drop in output in this recession is greater than was true in the recessions of the 1980s or the 1990s. There is some evidence, though, that the decline in employment to this point has been less. What distinguishes this recession from those we have seen before is one particularly knotty fact: unemployment has increased a good deal more than employment has fallen. Over the last year unemployment has risen by 750,000 while employment has fallen by 573,000. There are two important reasons for this gap. First, firms have stopped hiring, which has had a pronounced impact on young people. This has happened at a time when Britain's young population is at its highest level for a decade – and higher than it will be for the next decade. A policy of last in, first out is also operating. One year ago, those aged between 16 and 24 accounted for about 14% of overall employment – since then, more than five in every 10 jobs shed has been lost by someone in that age bracket. This is not a good time to be young and trying to find a job. Second, in contrast to previous recessions, the activity rate of older people, especially women, has increased. In part this is likely to be a result of declines in non-labour income, including pensions. The financial crisis has reduced people's savings. If a spouse is unemployed or in short-time working or has seen a marked reduction in their earnings, then the other spouse may decide to work – only to find there are no jobs, and so they become unemployed. In past recessions, labour force participation rates for these groups fell as unemployment increased. Not this time. There is another big anomaly in the data. The construction sector has been central to the collapse we have seen in the British economy. Everyone knows the construction sector is in the doldrums; both activity and prices are down. But wait: there is evidence in the ONS figures that suggests things are not that bad. Employment in the construction sector has only fallen by 5,000 during the last year. At first this seems unlikely. It contrasts sharply with the evidence from the US, where construction employment has fallen by 18%. In the latest data release American construction employment fell by 76,000 alone in July 2009 – amounting to 31% of a total of decline of 247,00. Why is the UK so different? It may well be that many of the construction jobs were held by workers from eastern Europe who have now returned home. If so then the decline in employment may well be understated. Another possibility is that the amount of work being done by self-employed plumbers has tumbled and hence their earnings have collapsed. Unfortunately, we have no up to date statistical measures of the earnings of the self-employed – so I can only cite the anecdotal evidence of London cab drivers. The ONS also provides very little information on the earnings of workers in the smallest, especially non-union firms, which are impacted most by recession and are excluded from the main wage survey it conducts. Lack of suitable data limits our ability to track what is happening in the labour market, but none of it looks good for those driving black cabs or travelling aboard the Clapham omnibus. The labour market data were released on the same day that the Bank of England produced its Inflation Report, which suggested that the recovery may well be slow and protracted. That seems exactly right. It will be a long time before output gets back to the level that existed before the onset of recession. And unemployment is going to increase for many more months to come. Peter Mandelson, Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling face a daunting task. Yesterday's numbers amount to a very cold shower. There is a huge amount more to do.
  13. http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinanci...04?rpc=401& http://easterneuropeeconomy.blogspot.com/2...alue-later.html http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12508.html
  14. http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=105097 Albena Jsc is freezing its projects in sunny Albena, profits are down 22%. Canada Dry, please explain to us why anyone on the earth shoul invest in Bulgaria when the county seeks Help from IMF -> http://www.focus-fen.net/?id=n185794 Unstable parliament structure,weak coalition goverments that achieve nothing. The country is following the steps of the Baltics where you can see some horible GDP drops.Houseprices are in freefall, negative growth, populaion is shrinking, and even top apartments should cost less than 30k compared to wages. http://danskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/link/Eu..._CEE_230209.pdf Euro area: Exposure to the crisis in Central and Eastern Europe They will have to hope for help from the international institutions – most prominently IMF, the World Bank and the European Commission. These institutions have already coordinated rescue packages for Latvia and Hungary. The IMF has also provided assistance for Ukraine and Belarus. IMF has a USD 250 billion reserve, but even the IMF may have to be selective in terms of where and how much help they can provide.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.