Lucando

It will be inflationary. What's not spoken about is those on higher salaries. I own my own company and whilst my staff are far from on minimum wage, I have increased their salaries as a result of this minimum wage increase so there remains the same difference. A lot of other companies will do the same I would expect.

Gilts jumped up quite a bit this morning

11,000 jobs to go at John Lewis over the next 5 years. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/27/john-lewis-waitrose-jobs-cuts-redundancy-pay?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Yes, this is what I am seeing too but it is completely at odds with the recent RICS report where sales are reported to the flying through and prices are expected to be increasing substantially. I can't understand it. It seems, from the report, that Northern Ireland is immune from the basic principles of economics where price, particularly cost of mortgaes, dictates demand

Not sure what they are seeing in Northern Ireland.

And thats just showing asking prices. Factor in agreed prices and likely to be down 10% or more by now.

Any idea what the typical reduction in price is, if any, that agreed sales are going under offer for?

RICS report from today continues to show Surveyors reporting that NI is still in a period of house price growth and that they are expecting this to continue for some time. Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Anecdotally, in my own area, I'm not seeing price growth. Im seeing some reductions and when something goes sale agreed it is typically coming back on a few weeks later. So I'm not sure how the RICS surveyors are seeing otherwise.

I'd say that MoM fall is most likely incorrect.

I believe inflation will play out like an elliot wave with 3 ever increasing peaks, it would then be folly for the base rate to be reduced for sometime and will likely get a lot higher

CPI is up aswell. Time for 1% rises

8.7%. Half a point nailed on

Gove basically said they can't

If there is a base rate of 12 - 14% there will be blood on the streets

Yep, and even the £600k purchase in 2014 was probably overpriced and inflated due to ZIRP. They should have let things run its course after the GFC. All that is happening now is the inevitable play out of what should have happened then but didn't because they dropped the interest rates and QE. The plates have now stopped spinning.

So that would lead to less competition and even greater falls on the larger property. I bought in 2014 and used the period of low rates to clear my mortgage, living mortgage free for the last 3 years and saving for what I seen was the inevitable crash. I would expect a lot of people who bought around the same time as me would have paid off large proportions of their mortgages also so moving up the ladder shouldn't be as difficult as what it would have been less than 6 months ago.

I wouldn't agree with this. The nominal drop on the more expensive property will be far greater than the drop on the lower value one. It should be a lot easier to upsize, which is what I will be doing

Rates have been rising for a while now. I wonder how many, whose fixed rates ended and could have previously got a cheaper rate than todays, decided to go on SVR in the belief, propagated by many, that rates will come back down to zero again, only to find they now have no chance. That would be a real hard one to take.

That's an average and those who bought over the last three years will likely be far higher as they paid peak prices. There are also lots of other effects to think about, not just the cost of mortgages. Rising rates will wipe out all the zombie companies leading to unemployment. The money spent paying interest will not be spent in the wider economy. The cumulative effect of the average £250 coming out of the economy will affect many businesses, again, leading to job losses, affecting house prices. BTL investors will see a massive detracting in their yields and may sell up. Affecting house prices. The government will be spending more on it's debt, meaning less possibility of intervention, affecting house prices. It's a quadruple whammy.

.5% increase likely on the back of those figures. The previous increases in the interest are well embedded in the economy by now but seem to be having little impact on wags growth and employment. Interest rates above inflation are where this needs to go. The BoE are only prolonging the inevitable and making themselves look incompetent in the process

From some of Nero's comments I actually thought they might be Charlie

Looking at the RICS report today, it looks like NI is bucking the trend from the rest of the UK. Maybe single market access is having an impact.

You are lucky that you even get to see this. In Northern Ireland we don't and it leads to an unfair market in my opinion.

Hope so

BoE will likely do the same then which is a but disappointing given the inflation figures today