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14stFlyer

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Everything posted by 14stFlyer

  1. Believe me, I too am sorry if I have ever come across as Europhobic. I have lived in the EU in the past and am disappointed that living there in the future is now looking less likely. I am also surprised to hear that my views align (in your view) with europhobic brexit voters. I am just saying it as I see it. To be clear, I am staggeringly unhappy that we have left the EU, but that does not change my view that if we leave without a deal, some of the approaches by the EU negotiators and leaders will have contributed to that outcome.
  2. Why are you painting me as something I am not dugs? I asm a remain voter who has always been, and still is, vehemently opposed to a no deal Brexit. Disliking the EU's role in this sh1tsh0wer does not in any way make me a supporter of an acrimonious no deal future.
  3. Your blame someone else list is of the highest standard. I include myself in the list.
  4. An admirable vision, though sadly an oxymoron. I did say many people would see it as a success, not that it was one...
  5. And before I get harangued, yes, UKippers, Farage, Johnson, Gove, Brexit voters all have responsibility. I include myself, and my mate down the pub, for thinking it would never happen.
  6. That is your list and definitely not mine dugs. Whilst I think the blame game is now becoming pointless I will give you my list if you like. I agree with U.K. politicians (yes, including Remain voters) and the liberal elites being at least partially culpable by manufacturing such an unfair society and becoming so out of touch with voters. And, if no deal occurs I will be apportioning a minority of the blame onto the EUrocrats too.
  7. OK. Here is where I hope we go. We sign a deal with smiles. The deal will be a pretty standard FTA to start with, with a tight LPF, no regression, but options for divergence in the future (at a commensurate cost to SM access). It will come with the minimum of extra cooperation in other areas that stops obvious lose-lose (e.g security). There is then a period of relative calm and I suspect no significant divergence as we continue to sign what are essentially EU mirror trade deals. We then start returning to close integration with the EU in area of obvious mutual benefit (such as policing, data, education, scientific research, and possibly even aerospace). This second phase will, I suspect, require a different government in the U.K. U.K. popular views of the EU at the end of this are better than they have ever been during membership. Many in Britain will see Brexit as a success, despite the huge economic damage, loss of individual rights, and loss of our global diplomatic influence. And here is where I think we may be going. Pigheadedness results in a “principled” no deal. Both sides think that the other will capitulate as it is a clear loss-lose. But no one does. The U.K. government finally recognises the importance of centralisation and solidarity within the EU when support is provided to a French government to quell problems with unruly fishermen (small example - could have said any badly impacted group) and funding is provided to ROI to cover hardship that is inflicted upon them by the EU protecting the single market. The EU politicians are surprised that support for mad-eye Johnson actually increases as hardship (and yes, even hunger) starts to bite in the forgotten parts of Britain. they finally recognise the hornets nest they have helped to stir up a few years down the line when the boycott of EU products is front and centre of U.K. press, WWII rhetoric is turned up, and EU flags are burned in street demonstrations. I do hope I am wrong.
  8. I am still hoping you are right about there being a deal @thehowler . Increasing numbers on both sides here are coming out in support of no deal. What do they think will happen? Two weeks of hardship and then a return to the EU fold with tail between legs? Two months? Two years? Twenty Years? I am afraid that although sensible and logical, I do not believe this represents how the psyche of the average Brit on the streets works. The fact that senior EU politicians (and liberal elites on this website) think that a period of no deal ( and the hardship that will come with it) will potentially improve future relationships within a matter of years just shows how out of touch they really are. This is a once in a lifetime reset of U.K. and European politics. We need to show our friends and neighbours love and respect if we want to keep them, and they need to do the same for us. This means agreeing a deal that clearly shows closeness and cohesion. Not one that involves sticks and bars.
  9. Lots of issues here. And I agree with most posters on here I think. Yes we were right to offer this. Yes, China will make it difficult. Yes, it will cause some problems here, not least putting more pressure on house prices in urban areas (as these will definitely be urbanites). Yes it will lead to social problems in HK. Two things I disagree with though. An influx of 600,000 mainly young and well educated people from HK will increase competition for us already here, but it is not going to result in concreting over our countryside. World population is likely to be flattening in 50-75 years, so pressures on land use will ease and there will still be plenty of Scottish Mountains, Welsh valleys, NI Loughs and England’s Green and pleasant land left by then. And I do not see this migration in the same light as at least some of the intra-EU migration over the last decade or two which was driven by inequalities in pay, conditions and cost of living rather than genuine ideology and need.
  10. I do hope you prove to be right SJL. But, however bad the fallout is I am not convinced that Boris will get his full share of the blame. More divided and poorer we will be, but not necessarily free from governance from these t*****s.
  11. Sorry if I did not make myself clear NIP. Voting to Remain in the EU was not an extreme view in 2016 was not an extreme view. Advocating a return to the EU at a time where the U.K. has left and is actively attempting to negotiate its future relationships outside the EU is an extreme view (in my view obviously).
  12. +1. The longer we go down this extreme route, the uglier it is going to get.
  13. Er, that was after the sensible options were taken off the table. Please don't keep trying to rewrite history to blame the wrong people. It is not history. The same mistakes are being made right now. Eventually, people in Britain need to return to a consensus position, rather than perpetuate the divisive extremes of recent years. The only question in my mind is how much damage is done before this return to sensible middle ground happens. And quite frankly, Who gives a .... who you or I wants to ascribe the majority of blame to.
  14. Wishing economic hardship on to the population of the UK is not very nice dugs. You surprise me with this view, as from everything else I have read you come across as intelligent, cultured, and a fundamentally good human being. I also believe that the majority of people who voted Remain who now want us to get a deal and rebuild our relationship with the EU are good people. I even believe the majority of people who voted leave (even if they say they would still vote leave despite the problems this has caused) are fundamentally good people. I do nto believe the majority would rather see the UK "crash and burn" over staying in the EU. I therefore want the safest and best lives possible for all UK residents going forwards. And yes, I believe that the majority of EU citizens are also fundamentally good too - no better, no worse than the population of the UK - and so want to see continued success for the EU. A fair deal is where we need to be and I am glad @thehowler is confident we will agree one.
  15. Separating out the different reasons why people voted for Brexit is difficult. Immigration and Freedom of movement are often cited by people when asked, but I have noticed more of a correlation between voting for Brexit and people's overall life experience. Competition for resources, a feeling of overcrowding, and a feeling that your family's access to important things in life (like healthcare, education, road space, countryside, jobs, and of course HOUSING), was getting more difficult rather than easier all contributed in my view. So yes, simple numbers of inward migration was probably the biggest individual contributor. Of course, many of us recognised (and still recognise) that these were issuers, but did not blame the EU for them.
  16. Probably not, and a very nice blurring of the lines - well done. Is this an example of social mobility? Or is it supposed to represent exploitation of large differences in pay and conditions? I am not sure how well Bristol works for this, but London and SE has always been an escalator region within the U.K. where youngsters move down to improve their chances of a high paid and successful career. If this is the background, then I see this as the same form of migration as foreigners coming to work in highly skilled jobs in the multicultural melting point of bright young things that is London. I am all in favour, even if some start in less skilled positions.
  17. Good questions all dugs. It was an issue for me because I saw family members struggle to live the lives they wanted to live and being forced to leave the communities they wanted to be a part of. I see stopping the influx of highly educated and talented individuals into unskilled U.K. jobs as a benefit to me as it provides more opportunities to many less mobile people, and I think will improve the community within which I live from an equality perspective. It is undoubtedly not a benefit form a pure selfish / GDP perspective. It is also perhaps a negative from a diversity perspective. I think it is a benefit to discourage highly educated and motivated foreigners from taking unskilled jobs in the U.K. (or elsewhere) partially for the points above, but also because this is not in my view the best use of their skills and potential. I realise this may sound very patronising, but working in a highly skilled job in industry, academia or business at home, or perhaps as a doctor or teacher abroad, would be in my view objectively more beneficial (overall, and probably in the long term for the individuals too) than making sandwiches here, even if making sandwiches paid more money. To be clear, I always have been, and always will be in favour of migration that matches the right people to the right jobs and promotes growth and social mobility. It does not matter where these people are from in my mind. I expect some more shortish questions...and maybe some more abuse about being a bigoted Brexiteer.
  18. Not on its own perhaps. But CoVid, demographics and the law of supply and demand are finally aligning. In my view of course. Here are some of the reasons I remain confident House Prices will fall in the medium term. Furlough, the lockdown, and more importantly the recession and unemployment that is following are sucking young money and demand away from property. Approaching 65,000 excess deaths (albeit many from care homes rather than private homes) is sucking older demand away from property. The chaos and uncertainty of Brexit is sucking EU migrant demand away from U.K. property. Brexit is also likely to see us spend a higher percentage of our hard earned on essentials (in my view), leaving less for us to waste on inflated prices for a roof over our heads. These, together with the overall demographic of the baby boomers finally moving on from their 4 bed detached houses, will result in a significant lowering in house prices vs wages in the coming years. It may not be the full-on sudden crash many on here are hoping for (although there might be a pretty quick real terms fall some of the way when the penny finally drops and sentiment changes), but I think it is still on.
  19. I admit to that, yes dugs. Well qualified young EE’s coming to my home town to take on sandwich making jobs (and similar) was an issue for me and mine. I also feel it was an issue for the young EE’s tbemselves, and for the communities they were leaving. Stopping this particular aspect of FoM is a benefit of Brexit - yes, one of the few, and undoubtedly not worth the collateral damage. And before you respond, I am aware that the U.K. government could have done things to limit or mitigate the detrimental impact of this migration flow from within the EU. The simple truth is that both Labour and Conservative governments dismissed the issue as either unimportant or based on bigotry. Similar to you, I am mightily put off by the Political Class of 2020, but my response will be to vote Green rather than not vote at all, at least until the current crop have departed.
  20. I always seem to agree with the start of your posts Slawek, but then disagree with where you end up...
  21. That was the lightening stick used to ignite the rage against the EU.I t should have been directed towards our own government. A grow up conversation...not nationalistic clap trap. It was directed at our own government (mostly), and at our political establishment. And it continued to be dominantly at our establishment during the time when MPs in Parliament were blocking our leaving and trying to force a second referendum. I believe the "rage against the EU" aspect is relatively recent, and perhaps (mostly) misguided.
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