red

Hee, hee - he's really having a laugh, this one. So what do the FTBs do? Rent forever? And you seriously expect the market to sustain with downsizers? There isn't an infinite number of them, you know... It's bullish, alright. Full of it!

This is really sad, TM. But it illustrates the trend of people desperate to get onto the ladder (Kirsty & Phil should be utterly ashamed!) to the point of borrowing from parents to buy a place TEN TIMES their annual salary! All I can say is that she's a greater fool - one of a few folk left that are still jumping onto the sinking ship... But they're a dying breed, as too many have now wised up or are simply unable to afford it.

I personally welcome bull postings on this site; it reminds me why I'm selling to rent! I haven't read a single post that convinces me that I will be worse off stepping out of the market for a while. I still haven't had a satisfactory answer to the simple question: "If there's no crash, just stagnation or even increase, how are FTBs going to get on the ladder?"

Like your analogy about the ocean liner; but I, like many others, believe it has turned and will now pick up speed. My house in North London was valued 2 months ago at EXACTLY the same price it was a year ago. There's your ocean liner turning. A house near me was reduced from 470 to 400K after many months on the market. I have many more such anecdotes which confirm my beliefs. And as I said, I prefer to deal with first hand evidence, not massaged figures from those with a vested interest. And you're right - the majority of the UK aren't considering the consequences of a crash; they're in the denial phase. They hear about isolated stories but think to themselves: "that'll never happen around here. My place is worth £££...' But then they try to sell, and...

New builds are up? So what? Are they selling at the same rate & prices as last year? No. Anyway, I prefer to look at the hard facts and first hand, anecdotal evidence. And I can assure you that in my part of London at least PRICES ARE FALLING...FALLING...FALLING...

Dunno... But the stagnation theory is quite preposterous; are we really expected to wait for average incomes to rise by 30/40 % in order for FTBs to qualify for mortgages? That would take about 7 years with current inflation trends...!

How are those Northern Rock options doing, ITYS?

These companies are focussing more on overseas investments, now, where the gains are still to be had. Just about. I bought in Cyprus last year during a crazy property boom but things have cooled remarkably this year as locals have been priced out of the market. People were buying new homes off-plan and selling them built for 10-20% mark ups...

AT LAST!!! Someone who echoes my own opinion about IRs. It doesn't matter what the rate is when the house price itself is so out of reach. Alleluyah...

Simple. Who's going to buy all the property? With FTBs prices out of the market that just leaves investors to prop it up. Are we going to suddenly become a nation of renters when for so long the emphasis has been on home-ownership? No. This interest rate argument seems almost redundant to me as irrespective of the rate, you still couldn't get a loan as an average FTB on a simple calculation of income multiples/affordability. The FTBs I know don't even consider the interest rate any more - they are just sitting tight waiting for a 'correction...'

Hmm. Several points. Estate agents are essentially responsible for the initial valuation of a property. If one 'fred bloggs' agent is coming in with a higher valuation than another, as per your example, then it is still the estate agency industry's responsibility. Vendors are, of course, going to be greedy and want the best price, but if all agents told them to be realistic, what would they do? The greed is universal in the housing market but essentially governed by agents. (Also, an agent would certainly prefer the higher commission but would settle for ANY commission right now; an ACTIVE market is all they're after, whether that be a rising or falling one.) As far as insulting agents goes, I think it's cheap as they're fair game. But they do have a MASSIVE responsibility which I feel many of them simply don't realise. We are not just talking about 'salesmen' here. These people are entrusted to help you buy of sell YOUR HOME - the biggest investment you are ever likely to make. Why shouldn't they be trained and 'professional?' The fact that so many of them are 'just salesmen' is a damning indictment on the industry. I am staggered by the lack of knowledge in fundamental economics demonstrated to me by estate agents and if they want greater credibility, they should earn it.

Depends how much of a friend she is! You can either flood her with articles from the FT and quotes from economists who all suggest the market has well and truly turned.. or you can just maintain a dignified silence and wish her well, safe in the knowledge that you are right! Why not check the blogs on this site, cut & paste a few and email her. There are some excellent postings here from economics professors, etc. who surely know more than some warped hack at the Express...

nice try, bbb! However, I don't believe we've seen the denial phase hit fully yet. If, as anticipated, a glut of properties flood the market in the Spring, we might see people panicking and taking offers.

All this is well and good in a rising market, I agree. But my point is, the market has turned. I marketted my house at the same price it was valued at 12 months ago recently. If it was such a bargain, how come I only got ONE OFFER? Because it's a buyers market now and they're waiting, waiting....

Where does he get these 'probability' figures from? It's such twaddle... For "Our view is that people won't panic", read "For God's sake everyone, please, please, keep paying stupid prices for houses and borrow even more from us, PLEEEEEASSE!!!"

Blimey. Now that is a surprise. A kind of nice one, though...

You are indeed a WINDUP, so I won't bother telling you why you're SO wrong... But if you want a seriously good read that is certainly not a 'pudniw', try this: http://www.econ.ox.ac.uk/members/andrew.fa...t2UKHousing.pdf

Oh, I see! So everyone else who's been getting asking prices for the past 5/6 years were just 'trying it on' and getting away with it! And now they want to move they're 'coming clean?' So weren't other people trying to move during the boom when they were getting asking price offers? Houses are worth what people will pay for them; no more, no less. There was a frenzy to buy which has now evaporated and the market is heading downwards. Accept it. It's fallen already and will continue to do so. More than 10%, too. I truly hope you find a greater fool to buy your home for 310K as well, when you and every other Joe Bloggs flood the market with their properties next Spring.

There probably is (it's a popular gay haunt) but Jack Straw's Castle is no longer a pub; it's been developed into (wait for it...) luxury flats! Be interested to know if they've all sold. Would imagine so as they've been available off-plan for yonks...

No hat, but interesting that she is choosing pork; perhaps she's taken her bet a little further and is beginning to eat herself! Miaow...

Utter guff, I'm afraid. When has the market EVER found 'equilibrium' before? It obeys the same laws as any other financial market and is subject to rises and falls. If you want somewhere safe to put your money with 'equilibrium', try a bank; I urge you to read the following excellent link posted yesterday... http://www.econ.ox.ac.uk/members/andrew.fa...t2UKHousing.pdf

And I was looking to buy in Parliament Hill about a year ago - I registered with agents in the area who rarely contacted me. And now? I am getting emails daily with 2 bed flats coming onto the market CHAIN FREE. All of them. Do I smell BTL fear in NW5?! They're dumping stock, boys & girls...

don't know link - I was watching it on the box. But it may be at sky.com..?

Just seen latest update on SKY poll...No great surprise that around 30/40% of people still believe prices will pick up next year. Not surprising because as long as ill-informed correspondents keep playing it down, Joe Public'll remain ignorant. One supposed correspondent just trotted out that old favourite: "The conditions simply don't exist for a crash..." aaaaaaaaaargh!!! :angry:

A very solid post - difficult to argue against any of his points. I wonder if he's visited this site...?!