FTBagain

Just spotted this tucked away on the BBC business pages. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4199648.stm 3000 miners killed this year alone, and we are only 2/3 the way through it. If theyare successful in closing down the mines they are going to need the energy from some where!

I keep saying it, but it is looking like the 70's all over again, well 1969 anyway. Mind you that is better than 1929. Really don't want to go there again.

If a rig suffers significant structural damage it could months to repair, lose one and your looking at at least a year more likely two years to replace. It is unlikely to happen because hurricans would have taken into account when the rigs wehere designed (hopefully there were no corners cut ). At least there is no one (or very few) on the rigs. Systems damage on the other hand is more likely. Lots of stuff strapped to rigs and it could get damaged. From what I know about them (folks in the oil industry) I suspect few of the rigs will be slow back into production as 'minor' damage is repaired. If the repairs are rushed, not unlikely under the present circumstances, then we may see rigs go back out of use later as repairs break or are brought up to standard. $100 a barrel is starting to look a real possibility! So £1.40 a litre is also possible. All those quotes of £1.00 a litre by Christmas could look a bit optimistic . As Casual Observer pointed out Car Boot sales are going to be very popular. Last time oil spiked like this in the 70's unemployment wnet through 10%. It is currently ~3%. You are looking at about 2m people loosing their jobs if that happened.

Acgtually it is on the BBC website. First they have put Hometrack report on their site for 3 or 4 months, at least. On a busy day too! Things are really changing. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4193008.stm

What they forgot to mmtion in their report was the HPC in the mean time.

Found these towards the end of an artical on the BBC. Oil prices are really beginning to hurt! Here is the link. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4187400.stm It is the poor in Africa I feel sorry for, but i also suspect that they will cope far better than we will, on account they do not have to haul 10 stone of excess weight around with them.

Good point. We should remember that it would have to get really really bad for us to have a real reason to complain. I read somewhere a few years ago, that if you have food in the fridge, you are one of the top 10% richest people on the planet! Just goes to show how many people know what real poverty is!

No it is more than just perception. The situation is accelerating, fast. It is going to be a long cold winter.

Scotland has been helping to prop up the national average house prices on the various indices. Now that it appears that Scotland is slowing we should see the indices continue their downward spiral. The change in Scotland has come along just in time to help the indices to going negative this Autumn!

A lot has been said on this site about CPI and how it makes inflation look better than it really is. Well I read an artical the other day (sorry cannot remember where) that suggested that actually that might be about to change. No not because GB is about to change the inflation meassure again (although he might be) but because CPI is about to become rather more lively than we have seen so far. Why? Because fuel has a very strong impact on CPI. We have already seen that it rose sharply this month and with oil still accelerating away and likely to do so for a couple of months yet I think we will see CPI rise quite fast over the next few months. Remember also that last years oils rises will start to feed through into manufactured goods as well, and those prices will not slow anytime soon because oil has increased rapidly all this year as well (close to 50% YOY). Inflation could be about to make a very strong come back! For how long is uncertain, but my guess is for quite sometime, because if China and India continue to suck in oil at their present rate then demand will very soon completely out pace supply. As oil is used in the production of everythng from food, to clothes, all prices will rise. Inflation is back. Probably for quite sometime and when the central banks recognise that publically you will know that IR's are about to go up and stay up as the fight against inflation is resumed.

FF Very good post. I would suggest that buying / selling a house is a very stressful undertaking, because it is, by nature, a confrontational process. I suspect that a lot of the rants etc on this site and other sites (who rant equally in the opposite direction) reflect the high levels of uncertainty we all face at this time. Sadly, I think it will get much worse before it gets better. I am hoping for a HPC, not because I want to see others get hurt, but simply because I want to live in a nice house for a fair price. I do not want to put my future at risk in these dangerous times and risk everthing I have worked for ofther the last 20 years or so. Waiting is stressful in itself, made more so by so called VI's saying trying to talk the market up. I understand why they do it, because no one wants to by the person who gets accused to starting a HPC! Telling the future is virtually impossible to do in detail, but I am a techie analyst by profession and house market data is just another set of numbers, and boy does it look set to repeat previous events! My advice, hunker down, save against a rainy day and hope it does get as bad as it could!

The transaction data from the ODPM has been up dated. The figure for Q1 has been revised down and the figure for Q2 is well down on last year if slightly up on Q1. The graph is in 1000's of course. Now if Q3 stays well down ....

And I though I was associating with the intellectual elite.

I know how you feel. I am in Bath as well! Bath was trhe top preforming city in the UK in the last Hometrack survey. I was gutted! I consol myself with the knowledge that Bath lead the way down for awhile last year, but it seems we have to wait longer. Something that is a big issue for me! I do not want to be in a situation where I jumb on to the market too soon I find myself in the Last in, First Out bracket in two years time! A situatio that is not easy to deal with as Mrs FTBagain is pushing hard to buy now! It is getting bad out their and it will just get worse over the next few months, and I do not feel very secure in my job either. More pressure.

dom, Very good find. Thanks. It does raise some inyeresting questions about the BoE economic assumptions in its' latest report! Oil prices are likely to fall back in the future but only if we reduce demand, either by using alternatives, having a recession or both. I suspect both! If we are lucky!

I have just looked at the news blog. Ever other stoty it seemed was about job losses! It is along time since the headlines were that grim. If this keeps up then unemployment is going to be big news this winter. It is getting more like the '70s every days. Unemployment up Inflation up Interest Rates up Oil prices up Losses up.......

I would agree, but to be honest I don't think the actual figures are that important in most people's minds. The thing that scares most people is the trend. Is it getting worse and if so will it affect ME?!

It was blackjack. Here is the link to the thread; http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...wtopic=9633&hl=

Sounds a bit like Japan in th early '90's.

I think it is the first time that all three quoted measures of un / employment have turned for the worse. This suggests that the anecdotal evidence of job losses is starting to feed through into the data. Sentiment is going to take another knock in the not too distant future. We are seeing the early effects of a real slow down.

If inflation rises again next month then rates will most likely go up to contain inflation in the medium term, say in October. Given the price of energy inflation is not coming down any time soon IMO. The BoE will not want inflation running out of control, and suspect Merv will be saying something along the lines of "I told you so", to the wimps who blinked under pressure.

delite1 Good point and very well put, I will use your words in my signature if you don't mind. We have heard many complaints (I have made some myself) about poor reporting becasue we want a HPCorrection. In the past poor reporting has triggered economic upsets unnecessarily and a lot of people have been hurt in the process. "nurturing of the economy" is no bad thing, because when it all goes wrong any of us could get hurt in the fall out. We should be careful what we wish for, me included!

I know. Just how can the market still be rising! It is the same in our area. Vendors cutting the price right left and center! It has been going on for months!

You know, we may have started a new investment bubble. The Great T-Shirt bubble of 2005!

The rest of the artical has been posted. Some quoted economists say rates on hold, and that the retail sector isn't as week as it claims. Other saying rates could list go DOWN due to week growth! In other words no one has a scooby! Personnally I think we are heading into a irsing inflation, rising unemployment and falling productivity. Why? Oil!! 1970's all over again! Oh yeh, don't forget the HPC!