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House Price Crash Forum

sacon

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About sacon

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  1. Tony auditions for X factor: "Here we go, two three four... Gordon is a moron, Gordon is a moron Gordon is a moron"
  2. Fox News on Hurricane Katrina 24% of Natural Gas and Crude Oil used by the USA is pumped from the New Orleans region. Rigs were shut down and evacuated on Saturday. In addition 1/6th of imported oil comes through the port of New Orleans. This will disrupt the production of oil in the USA. In comparison IVAN disrupted the production of 11 million barrels. One reporter is predicting Oil to rise to $100 a barrel on the back of this Hurricane. This will increase UK petrol prices at the pump to somewhere around £1.40 a Ltr. What would an immediate jump like this do to the UK economy?
  3. Ok, flame me if I am getting this all wrong... The link to the house price reductions from the front pages says... "If you are looking for the best value take a look at our properties that have been reduced in the last 7 days" This means that 2001 properties of 12093 have been reduced in the last 7 days. So when the number of houses reduced is going down, that means that 8 day old reductions have gone out of the equation. 16.5% every week, thats 50% of the stock in just three weeks... HOUSE PRICE CRASH !
  4. Worst case scenario... your building insurance lapses, a cow falls out the back of a passing plane and flattens your house. On a serious note, worst case scenario is that you could not afford the repayments on your 107k mortgage. If you are worried about your job then take out extra insurance. Negative equity would not be a problem for you unless you had to downsize. I would assume that at some point you would want to go up the ladder, so even being in negative equity would be a positive, yes you would have to bridge the negative equity, but overall you will need a smaller mortgage on the ne
  5. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4532315.stm
  6. Sneaky bar stuwards. Thanks for the tip. Did you think about bouncing off loads of different proxies? Im on a floating IP, I wonder if logging in and out of the ISP would work? One thought would be to build a "folding" style screen saver that all HPC members could run, instead of searching for ET, they could be searching for the HPC I think going directly to the estate agents web site and cut out any middleware services would probably be the best bet. Could be hassle setting up the text analyser for different layouts, a bit of fuzzy logic might sort that out.
  7. Not as tedious as you think. I built an automated process, kind of like a web bot that hoovered up and disected all of the html. It was a bit of a hack job, but it worked. I was thinking about doing something on a bigger scale. Perhaps a daily crawl of all of the online estate agents. It would be interesting to get an immediate trend of what the average house price is being advertised at and track reductions on a national scale.
  8. Here are some stats from a London estate agent www.fjlord.co.uk 933 Properties listed, 95 reduced in price in the last 7 days. Average reduction in price = 4.21% At this rate the agent could reduce the entire stock in one quarter. If this turns out to be a downward spiral then prices could be coming down at this rate quarter on quarter. This would equate to a 16% reduction over a one year period, 19% in real terms. This is not taking into account any further reduction in price at the point of offer. First time buyers beware! The reductions… £349,950 > £310,000 > £39,950 > 11.42%
  9. This graph really bothers me (sorry). I think (maybe) that it just points out that inflation and house prices do not have a symbiotic relationship. There are so many other factors to take into account. To start with I think that house prices before 89 were always under priced. Between 89 and current, interest rates have been the biggest influence. Take a look at the cost of a mortgage as % of THP, at the peak of 89 it was 63%, currently it is only 44%. Interest rates are making it easier to get a bigger mortgage, and thus pushing up house prices. I could argue that there is more room for g
  10. I think you might be right about personal debt. This makes a 2% rise in interest rates that more scary...
  11. This is the annual national income, not the disclosed average income at the time of taking out the mortgage out...
  12. I was looking at a set of statistics from the Nationwide this morning. One spreadsheet displayed a set of statistics reaching back to 1981. One column that caught my eye was the repayment % required to borrow a 75% loan-to value mortgage of an averagely priced house with an average wage. In 1980 this percentage started at 39%, it dipped to 24% in 1983 and then rose steadily to a whopping 63% at the peak of the last boom in 1990. Before I go further, 63% !!!!!!! wtf how did anyone afford this ??? could you imagine borrowing 95% LTV ? that must have been in the 80% region, no wonder so many
  13. EDITED : Think I must have been a bit cut and paste happy and missed a whole chunk off (or maybe I was a little piffed, lmao). Here is what I should have cut and paste... 01 / 2003 : 27.3% : A Sound Start to 2003 say Estate Agents 02 / 2003 : 24% : It’s steady as you go on house prices, say estate agents 03 / 2003 : 21% : A period of steady calm predicted by estate agents 04 / 2003 : 19.5% : Prices Still Buoyant Outside South East 05 / 2003 : 18.2% : MAY PUTS A SPRING INTO HOUSE PRICES 06 / 2003 : 16.7% : PROPERTY MARKET REMAINS STRONG 07 / 2003 : 13.6% : PROPERTY PRICES MAINTAIN STEA
  14. true, how many suppliers did Rover have ? how much are they owed, and how much will they miss the revenue ???
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