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House Price Crash Forum

Gavin

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About Gavin

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    HPC Regular
  1. Why? That’s an easy statement to make, but I am talking about real anomalies here. Did the US authorities anticipate this crisis? Did we? Is it not as simple as that? I think you overestimate the fed’s ability considering their track record and cross board members in each camp. 20% of USD12t is a loss of USD2.4t, doesn’t matter how big your computer models are. I work with complex models, and whilst they are all very interesting; back of fag packet calcs will tell you enough to arrive at an initial decision. The computer models are good for detail and measuring small effects of things
  2. Whilst I do not know the methodology for the stress tests, I am making some very rough assumptions regarding the lead problem of US house prices. I understand US home values total approx USD12 trillion. (I guess there are roughly 120m houses, worth approx USD100k each). Lets assume we have seen a 20% average fall in value across the board since 2006-7. = USD2.4trillion loss, this loss would have been borne by the owner occupiers (primarily) and the banks on mortgages marked to market. Reports this week that 25% of US home owners are now in negative equity; this means USD3 trillion in ban
  3. Still here, amazed by what I am seeing now;.....out there.......in the real world.
  4. I get the analogy. Clippers are the easy option. Less pain, but also less time before the hair extends to become unsightly and catch the boogerloos again.
  5. Clippers are less pain. Going back to whether we have been right about a crash. What about the US? I don't think there is much doubt it has happened there? I know that there are arguments about why it is different here. But that really is the only thing the bulls (or flatliners) have left. They can't really say that house markets don't crash. Only that the UK one is 'special'....... Going back to the topic at hand. I enjoy the cynicism when discussing the world/market but I don't really 'get' the cynicism of the site itself. After all it is called housepricecrash and therefore the collective
  6. I accept that we haven't been able to time the end of the housing bubble accurately, but I think the nature of irrational bubbles made that nigh on impossible, and this isn't JUST an excuse. When I look around.;I believe it is better to call it 2 years to early than 1 month to late. I would suspect that to STR now as an example would be very difficult and very stressful. If you then take HPC predictions for stock market falls, or golds ascension; then armed with cash, you have had ample time to benefit in real terms.
  7. I have been here longer than most, and I love this place, neither do I tire of it! I know there have been some thread thats have touched on this but why do you like it here? Personally I have learnt so much, and although I clearly thought 'something was up' when it came to property prices being to high, but I couldn't claim to have formulated an encompassing understanding of quite how the market got there. I believe we have managed to create a 'collective consciousness' by pooling lots of ideas and cutting and slicing until they seem to fit in. Who knows if we are right, but in terms of p
  8. Actually this guy never had a chance, if he says "who's selling now?" then he really does not understand what is going on at all.
  9. I think we will see more of this kind of thing before it gets better......
  10. More evidence seeping through to the public consciousness. Went to see Michael McIntrye last night at the Lyric theatre. Great night and extremely funny. You get the feeling he is genuinely a nice guy and his style with the audience is to speak like we were his friends. All in the audience were 18-40. He has a young family and had done a lot of gags about them growing up. In the encore he told a story about he had been physically attacked by his 75 year old neighbour for not clearing up his share of the shared gardens leaves. He said “I would love to buy a house, but it’s so difficult
  11. FP I would like you to echo the point made earlier. Why not say you are delighted to be part of the panel because the views given are always by those parties that are desperate to keep the housing boom going. In the Times yesterday they did a four page pull out on where prices are headed and asked Estate Agents from each region for their comments. Please press that: Estate agent earn fees from sales and earn more fees from higher prices. They would see fees fall and transactions fall in a crash. RICS earn fees from the number of housing transactions and strongly opposed hips because sudd
  12. Me and Mrs G will be watching in our comfy slippers. Don't forget to say how sentiment bought into the boom and chased it upwards, but sentiment also watched people queue up in a good ole run on the bank today at NR. Mention that you will be interested in seeing what the Rightmove figures are on Monday and urge people to look out for them to. p.s. Is it just me or wouldn't HIPs be expected to boost prices in the short term due to; 1. People wanting to recoup the cost of one or; 2. A 4 bedroom house being advertised as a 3 bedroom house with a study suddenly being considered in the 3 bed
  13. Then we agree on something because the fact about this bull market and exuberance was that the mainstream refused to even accept that cycles still existed. When on here we were saying house prices will go down we were literally laughed at. Now it seems that we a likely to be proved right, you are saying exactly what we were expecting. “Well that was obvious”. I do not think I am an expert, but my money is in the bank (and in gold and Japanese property) it is not stuck in an overvalued UK house. Therefore I sleep well tonight, what about you?
  14. I understand what you are saying sir, it’s the old, “a broken watch is correct twice a day” theory but I do not accept that. My house was over valued I didn’t feel I could pay my mortgage over 25 years without the risk of losing my employment at some point. I looked at average earnings and mortgage multiples and I decided this could not go on. I read up about bubble theory and identified the match. House prices had become fundamentally detached from any valuation model and I decided to sell. I never called when the bubble would burst because a core part of the theory is that timing is almost
  15. This morning we have seen the Northern Rock story hit the front pages, the Times’ Kaletsky make a u-turn and state that house prices will fall and on Monday we are going to see the Rightmove figures go public. I think a few of the sheeple flock will now have seen a wolf circling the field. Most won’t have seen one before and will not know what to think but they will know its not good news and try and keep away from the field perimeter. I have to say I TOLD YOU SO, because that’s how I feel. For 3 years we have been mocked for saying that this would all start to unravel with a combination o
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