BearlyBegun

It sounds like with such oversupply the rents are still being driven down and yields getting even worse, even during this temporary seasonal levelling of the HPC. Surely the OP getting rent at 1000pcm on a 300-320k flat IS the market value right here and now. Many landlords are getting badly burnt if they're new to the game and didnt do the maths.

For my flat (not the OP) its a 2bed in SW6 that cost 585k peak '07 now worth around 500k by zoopla - currently renting at just shy of 2k per month. What's the calculation for yield? I'm certainly not planning on renting my entire life, but I only aim to buy when the numbers stack up. My own situation is simple - I cannot buy what I want in London in these prices so I rent until either I can afford/I think the crash is over, or I reach the stage when I dont want to live in London. The flat I'm living in should be worth, if I try to take a sensible view on it, about £350k IMHO - welcome to the crazy history of UK HPI.

I'm glad to hear this as I havent looked for a while, it doesnt surprise me all that much. Considering Putney is very popular Aust/Kiwi's many of whom will have lost their work as contracts expired, or are returning home when their time is up and not being replaced as those that planned to come over this year have surely had 2nd thoughts as they realise the work isnt available. Its also a popular area for young prof who are more likely to do things like move back with parents should their employment fall through, or consolidating into larger households as their flatmates may lose theirs. We saw great opportunities to put in rent offers in SW6 during April 09 - we cut about 20% off the asking price in the end. Is putney very popular with the Just-Let-It-Out brigade who would have normally sold do you think?

If I had a house that had been on the market for 2 years with no action I'd certainly bump the price up by a large chunk amidst the media euphoria at the moment - if you're relying on a fool to buy it in the first place might as well go all out and hope for a REALLY stupid buyer...

I think its this article: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....mp;in_page_id=2

I'm genuinely interested in you expanding/explaining further a few of these points, namely: 7. Increasing population - of course the british population is increasing but certainly in London there seems to be an ongoing drain of migrant workers, be it Polish/Austrlalian/etc due to the lack of available work. This is surely having an impact on the trend line for increasing population. I understand that London may be considered special but what are your thoughts on this drain? 8. Most of the articles I have read alongside what I see on the ground suggests this is actually going the other way with many more 18-30 year olds actually moving back home or in with friends where before they might have lived alone. This is driven by unemplyoment/loss of income but it seems to be the growing trend now 9. Really? Where are these investors coming from? Most with 'spare' cash must have been hammered by the recent equities and property pain, surely anyone left with free cash isnt looking at UK housing? 10. I also think this is already well into the change within the 18-30 demographic. We see property as historically un-reachable due to the cost, and the last few years will only damage confidence in the "property only ever goes up" mantra. I think we might have already begun the systematic adjustment in the attitude that people have towards property in this country, so young people now fear it that much more. This applies to those that did buy the last 6 years equally as much as those that did/could not I am here to learn & would appreciate a response if you could

I did this earlier today and my rate comes out at +3.1%

According to zoopla ~500k, bought in Nov 2007 for 585k (not by me - happy renter!) Seems to me that the proportion of sellers pricing realistically are still by far the minority. People just cant accept that houses go anywhere but up in price!

+1 I'm an FTB - born in '77, graduated in 2000. By the time I reached 2003 having worked hard and scraped a small deposit it was obvious to me that the bubble already formed was expanding into LaLa land. I was frustrated, and disappointed, but sat out as it inflated even further out of control. Now my position (as much by luck as anything else) is much better. The bubble has burst, and there's mess all over my few friends that were able to and did jump in during 2004-2007. I have no interest in buying right now, as the current levels are still ridiculously out of reach. I will sit back and watch. I'm quite happy renting actually and may not buy for a long time, as personally I have no property ownership obsession. This cycle still has much further to go, at least a few years, and prices will unwind considerably as it moves on. My only consideration is timing the jump in as best as I can, to hopefully join the start of the new upward cycle. Or maybe not - perhaps I'll just rent for the next 20years and join then (if VMR is on the money with his timelines)!

Since its 'asking rents' perhaps its more an indication of rents having dropped until they hit the limit of the accidental landlords mortgage payments? Once they've had a 3month void period I'm sure they'll come around... Personally in west london there still seems to be a massive amount of empty properties to rent, probably due to alot of australians/kiwis/saffa's etc going home when they cant find work.

I'm not necessarily agreeing with your calculations but using them: My rent = £2k pcm The flat was bought Nov07 @ £585k Currently valued (Zoopla) @ £465k Based on my rent it should be ~ £326k to buy so still has some way to go! The price it was bought in '07 was silly money

I'd ask him if he really thinks that base rate will remain at its low well into 2010...considering the S&P/IMF recent comments and the ever increasing risk of investment dumping the £ and avoiding gilts. Then watch closely for any facial ticks

Is this link broken? Not working for me... thanks

Just thought I'd post this anecdotal as I think it probably indicates a withdrawal of funds extended from a bank to help a business cashflow... presumably? Bar and restaurant complex on south side of putney bridge (The Rocket) - I've been to the restaurant a couple of times this last month and it seemed to be doing ok with enough diners, the bar next door seemed to always be heaving with people & doing great trade in overpriced cocktails etc. Went there last night - all closed down 'due to current economic conditions'. I can only assume this is due to a withdrawal of funding from their bank, as they certainly seemed to have enough turnover. Would this likely be the bank re-considering its risk of loans and pulling the plug on otherwise viable businesses? Nearer where I live in SW6 there are 2 restaurants within 5 mins walk that have simply shut up shop since April. I dont see any green shoots!

I'm new to the idea of buying physical gold & I wanted to get an idea of how close conventional gold dealers' coins (Sov's, Britannias etc) and bars track the daily spot price of gold. Do they tend to match the daily spot price fluctuations i.e. gold dealers such as ATS bullion reprice their offerings on a daily basis, or weekly? Thanks

Very droll

I live and work in west london and truly I have never seen so many small shops and restaurants close as in the last six months - most have closed in the last month or two. When they close, they stay vacant. In my close circle of friends 2 have been made redundant, 2 are balanced on a knife edge and the few others are currently doing ok. The evidence is all around me, so perhaps you're looking but not seeing. As per other posts - London wont be a ghost town, people will still go to work/eat.

+1 Foxtons quoted us £365 for the two of us looking at a 2bed in SW london - these are their fees for ref check etc and nothing to do with holding deposit/finders fee charged to the landlord. Its a disgrace, but you can always try to haggle.

We haggled for 20% off asking price on a new lease/property 2bed in SW6 starting April. All the properties we viewed were open to an offer, many considerably less than asking and/or were offered at alot less than last years asking price. The letting agents were encouraging us to put in low offers, so they know that the tide has turned - in SW london at least.

We negotiated a 20% off asking price for 2bed flat in SW6. If you ask me the asking price was about 10% too much anyway based on the other properties we viewed, many of the properties we saw with the many agents were taking offers on average 10-15% below asking. I think many landlords were pricing on peak/2007 prices they achieved, but were willing to adjust and take the hit. Those that didnt will have to suffer void periods I guess. We did see several properties that we'd viewed the year before (3beds) that had already been reduced by more than 15% off original asking price but were still open to offers ~10% below. If you ask me the data for SW6 will show declines of 5% or more in rents just for last quarter. I did previously see a couple of reports saying rents in SW6 declined 10-15% over 2008 and seems to be to be continuing in 2009. Everyone is feeling the pinch.

Foxtons in London recently quoted fees (refences/contract etc) £375 for two of us taking a shared place. This has been their charging level in london for a while, however you tend to find the other major players charge less down to I'd say £200. If you get a more independent LA then they charge around £100 (£50 each) for this process. But everyone hates foxtons

My feeling is that home purchases WILL be up in the next month or two, but that's not hard from the amazingly low levels they have dropped to! However these purchases will merely crystalise the drops with the majority of homes selling for the ~20% decline reported, representing the relatively few people who have the inclination/reason AND the necessary finance to buy in these troubled times. All this will do is provide a new levelling to the -20% off peak level, whilst removing alot of those who are actually able to buy (STR/big deposit etc). There might be a brief pause for breath at this point, but the lack of new buyers entering the market who want to and CAN purchase will be mostly exhausted, & while the economic data continues to show a shocking decline then any hovering FTB and anyone else will soon realise that the next decline down is inevitable. That's if they dont already think this, or have lost their job etc. I will sit back and watch with interest - as a FTB I see absolutely no reason to do anything else. I am convinced that HPC is here to stay for a minimum of another year, and although god knows what the government might do next I see absolutely no way to change from this path. Long live HPC!

A friend of mine at work upgraded to a new property about 5months ago - he's recently seen the property he bought reappear on Rightmove and the Estate agent as available. I told him it might be an EA trick to mis-represent the current market i.e. putting a property prev sold back up again before quickly changing it to SSTC to look like things are moving. He's emailed the EA from another email account pretending to be an interested buyer...

God I hope it isnt Greggs, although I did hear of their troubles. Their cheese/bean/sausage slice is a miracle hangover cure!