prognosis

The IMF has 400 tons of gold that it took in exchange for bad debts from Brazil and Argentina I re-call . the rest is owned by it's it's contributing members who on sale have the right to the difference between their selling price and the current market price. This is simply a transference of wealth to allow the governments to release funds to themselves probably with the intention of friendly buyers already lined up who will profit from the massive increases we are about to see in gold prices. Everyone gets a slice and the poor get something but probably only a sixth of what the gold is actually worth. Quite a scam . But again under the radar for now.

you can make money in cash. A persistent question here seem to be:- why is the dollar so strong? The answer actually is simply . Currently the US is going to be hit by the biggest deflationary spiral ever. So just put your money in Dollars. You'll be able to buy more for your dosh. Simple logic. get out of Euros and stay out of sterling. 2010 end will mean a move back to sterling as the shift goes from deflationary to inflationary.

A.Steve Your QE explanation in my view is spot on. Further the Government have developed a back stop strategy to delay a UK led crash and then benefit from City domination. Further reduced interest rates are helping the minority. So why do it?. The simple fact is the government is widening the spread so the banks can take a greater share which has included taking certain asset classes in return for cash at virtually no interest. Remember these asset classes were previously and still are making the banks money. The Government knows they have to do this to delay the UK implosion date on debt The new D-Day. But if they know it is coming why do that? The answer again is simple. They (the UK Government) want The UK D-Day to be delayed long enough that they are not the ones to cause it. All the pointers say that Euroland is now the weak link. Sadly for them the ECB and particularly the Germans have failed to recognise the extent of the global contraction and now will suffer the consequences. Sarkozy is screaming blue murder, failing to control his mouth. Word is that Darling will get an earful tonight when European finance ministers meet. Do they (the French and Germans) really expect BOE to step in to support the pound . The euro is set to fall dramatically along with an almighty bang. Potentially there will be a Euro country or two who decide or must default unless the Germans step in the underwrite some of the bonds, which is doubtful. Any one of the PIIGS could do this . It's just a question of who can bluff it out the longest and that includes the UK. If it plays out as I expect the markets will dump the Euro and seek alternatives. This will again allow 'the city' to rise again from the ashes and attract inward investment and secure the pound and economy. In the meantime the little people like us mean nothing. The Government doesn't care about inflation or deflation or whether savers lose money. There are much bigger issues at hand and one only has to look at the number of honours handed to Bankers over the period of the labour Government for one to realise which glove the Government has it's hand in. The City owns the Glove.

infletion in what? deflation in what? over what period? asset classes, food, wages ? bit of a silly poll really. if you are going to ask a poll be specific please.

http://richarddhartley.blogspot.com/ see sterling, euro 2009

quite

the problem with these figures is that they are not a true reflection

This is the same Jim Rogers that said get out of dollars 4 months ago, the US economy is toast and buy into Asia. Basically he'll talk to anyone who'll listen. Really he has no more clue than anyone else. Why is the BBC giving this guy airtime.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buckler/buckler122208.html Can the fed do this? You bet they can, they control the Dollar!. Surely this will be catastrophic to the dollar and massively inflationary. However it could help sterling. and ultimately reduce the ability of The US to keep printing money. Indeed it could control inflationary pressure and act as a stabiliser stopping the US issuing more never never dollar bonds. Absurdly though they would be competing with themselves. but it could be a trick to keep the consumer spending whilst creating a new currency, but what will they call it? . conspiracy theorists, your thoughts please. GS at work? (Un)fortunately the bank of England does not have the remit to do the same.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans..._the_bundesbank The European Central Bank faces a mutiny. For the first time since the launch of monetary union, an ECB board member has dared to confront the hegemonic Bundesbank bloc in public. For those of who think the ECB has gravely misread this global crisis and risks repeating the errors of 1930s - and that is the opinion of a few Nobel laureates who have spoken to the subject - this is a glorious moment. Athanasios Orphanides, the Cyprus governor, has thrown down the gauntlet. His latest speech in Larnaca - only in Greek unfortunately - rebuts the ECB obscurantism that has so shocked economists, and so dismayed those who fear that the ECB's Brüning-Luther drift into debt deflation will reduce Europe to a bonfire of riots and a splintered bedlam of neo-fascists, marxists, and assorted tribal reactionaries. Who cares about the Cyprus governor? Well, Orphanides is a 17-year veteran of the US Federal Reserve and just about the only member of the ECB council who has published scholarship of world renown. In other words, he is more than a match for the haughty duo from the Bundesbank - Axel Weber and Jürgen Stark - and everybody in the tight-knit fraternity of central banking knows it. His speech is finally to say to the Old Guard: enough, we have endured your view of the world for long enough, step down, make way. Yes, Buba was a great bank once. It was a bulwark against the "crass Keynesianism" of the 1970s, but we are not in the 1970s now. We are in a world where an oil shock briefly obscured a immensely powerful debt deflation as the excesses of a 30-year credit addiction finally implode under their own force. The Bundesbank/ECB misread this. They were distracted by the trivial, and neglected the essential. It led them to commit a shocking blunder by raising rates into the storm in July. The harsh truth is that every generation has to earn respect afresh. No institution can claim hereditary prestige, whether it is Oxford University, the US Supreme Court, or Buba. The current crew in Frankfurt have quite simply blown it. Yes, the Greenspan easy-money experiment was worse in its deeper effects. (This is not a defence of Anglo-Saxon stupidities). But then Buba/ECB did a 'Greenspan-lite' themselves from 2002 to 2006, fueling the Club Med and East Europe property bubbles. Hard-money men? Give me a break. They were too loose in the bubble, and have been too tight since this bust began. This is plain error. No amount of ideological bluster can disguise that. But I digress. The Buba bloc laid out its doctrine and the end of last month. To be precise, it was delivered by Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi from the ECB's executive council, but encapsulates the Bundesbank view. He said - or implied - that it would be dangerous for the ECB to follow the lead of the Fed (and now the Canadian, British, Swedish, and Swiss central banks) in embarking on radical stimulus. "There is a risk that policy makers run out of ammunition too early and remain without a means of escape." He likened it to a spaghetti western. The good guys in the cavalry lose if they empty their revolvers too early, and are then surrounded. This caused consternation. There were audible groans across the City. "Central banks don't run of ammunition. They have a nuclear arsenal," said Erik Nielsen, Europe economist at Goldman Sachs. Undaunted, Weber and Stark have since been on the circuit promoting this preposterous metaphor. Weber warned against letting interest rates fall below inflation, which sets an effective floor near 2pc right now (no matter that the time-lag effect on inflation is so long as to make it utterly useless as a guide in this fast-moving crisis... but these guys are frankly robots). They have also been up to their old tricks of trying to tie the hands of the ECB's governing council in advance, signalling to the markets that there will be no January rate cut. This becomes self-fulfilling. The bank cannot then disappoint the market. Except that this time Orphanides has dropped a neutron bomb on their heads. "I would like to stress that the view that monetary policy becomes ineffective and cannot contribute further to credit growth when the short-term rate reaches zero, or very low levels, is a fallacy." "Zero short-term rates are not an obstacle for the further boost of monetary expansion if this is judged to be necessary. Of course, monetary policy is more complicated and difficult in cases where short-term rates are already at low levels. However, this fact does not restrain the effectiveness of monetary policy." He politely advised the Bundesbankers to stop messing around. "We're in the middle of an extremely crucial economic phase where economic activity rates are slowing down, financial values are fluctuating and the uncertainty in the financial markets is continuing. It is alarming that, unfortunately, a vicious cycle has been created between the financial system crisis and the slowdown of economic activity in the real economy. This development imposes determined decisions of macroeconomic policy." The mutiny is gaining shape. Portugal's Vitor Constancio picked up his dagger on Friday, warning of a "significant recession" that will kill inflation. He said central banks most certainly can cut to zero, and try 'quantitative easing', if need be. "Besides interest rates, central banks have other instruments that are still available and, in this context." More surprising, Nout Wellink from the Netherlands has inched into the rebel camp. "There are more degrees of freedom for the ECB to react further to what's happening in the economy." 'I myself am more pessimistic with respect to 2010 - or perhaps it's better to say more realistic - than most international organizations. Most start with the assumption that world trade will pick up in the second half of 2009. If you analyze the figures then you see that this is highly unlikely on the basis of the present data for Europe," he said. So too has Malta's Michael Bonello. "Of course we continue to review the whole range of instruments we have at our disposal. Direct intervention in the credit markets in the shape of quantitative easing could be considered." So what matters? One many, one vote in the ECB council. Or the unwritten law that the Bundesbank cannot be overruled in EMU because the euro derives its status from the D-Mark legacy? We will soon find out. In the Orwellian language of the ECB this yawning rift is described by Jean-Claude Trichet as "consensus". The term is "unanimity" when disputes are kept to level where nobody feels strongly enough to oppose a vote. Isn't it beautiful?

actually thinking about it they have been recalling a lot of cars recently presumably to dampen supply and increase demand . BMW Recall August 13, 2008: BMW has announced a recall of 200,000 cars and small SUVs because of possible airbag failure. The sensors that detect whether or not a person is seated in the front passenger seat may fail due to wear, preventing the passenger side airbag from deploying in an accident.1 a crash waiting to happen in my opinion.

haha a german auto cartel! you're right that's what they must be planning

I think the Germans are in big Trouble. Thier efficiency and colossal size of manufacturing relies on volume. It makes most other manaufacturing nations (US aside ) look like a cottage industry. Without volume they will struggle. And the severity of the depression in Germany that is propping up the Euro will be catastrophic. Why do you think Sarkozy is getting his knickers in such twist. Or is it Angela getting Sarkaozy's (a man with 6 brains remember) knickers in a twist or is it her own. sorry losing the plot now! edit :- sorry realised that what I wanted to say was that the colossal size of Angela's knicker's is putting Sarkozy in a tiz......... actually maybe that's not it either........but maybe true!

If you're looking for a more , here's a Keynesian frenzy! Heil myself Raise your beer CHORUS: Jawohl! Chancellor: Ev'ry hotsy-totsy German stand and cheer CHORUS: Hooray! Ev'ry hotsy-totsy German... Chancellor: Heil myself! CHORUS: Ev'ry hotsy-totsy German... Chancellor: Heil myself! CHORUS: Ev'ry hotsy-totsy German... Chancellor: ...stand and cheer! THE HEIL-LOs: Herr Steinbrück is causing a furor! He's got those US on the run You gotta love that wacky pun! Herr Steinbrück is causing a furor They can't say "no" to his demands They're freaking out in foreign lands He's got the whole world in his hands Herr Steinbrück is causing a furor!

listen these city types have a lot to offer and I'm sure that they'll get get jobs very easily with any of their peers . I bet they are putting the ads together now to attract the very best talent at Ladbrookes or William Hill.

I was born in Dusseldorf, and that is why they call me Peer ... or was it Rolf Sorry but German supremacy on these matters is absolute rubbish. A satire perhaps LEAD TENOR STORMTROOPER: And now it's... Springtime for Angela and Germany Deutschland is happy and gay! We're marching to a faster pace Look out, here comes the finance race! Springtime for Angela and Germany Rhineland's a fine land once more! Springtime for Angela and Germany Watch out, Europe We're going on tour! Springtime for Angela and Germany... CHORUS: Look, it's springtime LEAD TENOR STORMTROOPER: Winter for Poland and France CHORUS AND STORMTROOPER: Springtime for Angela and Germany! CHORUS: Springtime! Springtime! Springtime! Springtime! Springtime! Springtime! Springtime! Springtime! STORMTROOPER: Come on, Germans Go into your dance! STORMTROOPER "PEER": I was born in Dusseldorf und that is why they call me PEER. STORMTROOPER "MEL": Don't be stupid, be a smarty, come and join the German party! ULLA: The chancellor is coming, the chancellor is coming, the chnacelor is coming! STORMTROOPER #1: Heil Angela! STORMTROOPER #2: Heil Angela! LEAD TENOR STORMTROOPER: Heil Angela! Springtime for Angela and Germany ALL: Heil Angela! ROGER: Heil myself Heil to me I'm the one Who's out to change our history Heil myself Raise your hand There's no greater Dictator in the land! Everything I do, I do for you! CHORUS: Yes, you do! ROGER: If you're looking for a more , here's a Keynesian frenzy! Heil myself Raise your beer CHORUS: Jawohl! ROGER: Ev'ry hotsy-totsy German stand and cheer CHORUS: Hooray! Ev'ry hotsy-totsy German... ROGER: Heil myself! CHORUS: Ev'ry hotsy-totsy German... ROGER: Heil myself! CHORUS: Ev'ry hotsy-totsy German... ROGER: ...stand and cheer! THE HEIL-LOs: The Finance minister is causing a furor! He's got those Russians on the run You gotta love that wacky pun! The Finace minister is causing a furor They can't say "no" to his demands They're freaking out in foreign lands He's got the whole world in his hands The finance minister is causing a furor! ROGER: I was just a paper hanger No one more obscurer Got a phone call from the Reichbank Told me I was Finance minister Germany was blue What, oh, what to do? Hitched up my pants And conquered Europe Now Deutschland's smiling through! But it wasn't always so easy... It was 2001. Hindenburg was working the Big Room and I... I was playing the lounge. And then I got my big break. Somebody blew the CDOs'. And, would you believe it? They made me Chancellor. Chancellor! It ain't no myst'ry If it's politics or hist'ry The thing you gotta know is Ev'rything is show biz Heil myself Watch my show I'm the German Peer Steinbruck Dontcha know We are crossing borders The new world order is here Make a great big smile Ev'ryone sieg heil to me Wonderful me! And now it's... CHORUS: Springtime for Angela and Germany Goose-step's the new step today ROGER: Springtime! Goose-steps! CHORUS MEN: Money is falling from the skies again CHORUS: Deutschland is on the rise again ROGER & CHORUS: Springtime for Angela and Germany Bail outs are failing once more Springtime for Angela and Germany ROGER: Means that... CHORUS: Soon we'll be going... ROGER: We've got to be going... CHORUS: You know we'll be going.... ROGER: You bet we'll be going... ROGER & CHORUS: You know we'll be going to win!! edit add to the tune http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGp0hCxSg98

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7645.html The above article explains teh velocity of money very well I think . Y = mv if v = 0 = no growth Y = GDP M = money supply V = velocity Therefore if GDP = 15 trillion for US M = 7.6 Trillion V = 1.86 so if v = 0 we get no one buying or spending. The economy shrinks. m2 growths see charts Normally M2 grows comparable to Growth but in the last few months The monetary base has grown by an annual rate of 1400% in recent months but if no-one is spending and V gets nearer to zero. Which is bad news as the rest of the economy chases whats out there. Then we get deflation. I don't fully understand it but in my mind if M increases dramatically and Y shrinks. The rubber band effect for inflation could be enormous. hence why some people think hyper inflation. I think we are in uncharted waters here and the problem of stopping the train as it picks up more and more speed as it careers downhill with no brakes will lead to massive inflation in the longer term and when it levels out it'll be a dollar = 1 cent. The harm this will do to the ordinary person will be enormous. As first deflation will decimate assets and then hyperinflation will cause untold misery to millions as people struggle to pay for basic necessities. Eventually over say 20 years pay will catch up and a counter balance will materialise.

and Spain, and Belguim and Holland and Portugal.

slain by the monster he created. it's an institution

Very lightweight article......... and he got paid to write it!

I have never quite understood RBS and the way the account for 'accounts' I regularly have accounts with a large positive balances in them that seem duplicated but whenever I try to draw on them the system claims I have insufficient funds. Double entry accounting?

Unfortunately one gets caught up in inane banter in life tuffers should never have posted this and I bet you'd retract it if you could. If you had a real issue you should have just gone directly to the FSA. Shame on you tuffers for using what effectively are parliamentary privileges of anonymity. And there in lies the crux of the matter. You have willfully attacked a fellow colleague whilst choosing to hide your own identity. YOU ARE COWARD SIR! If not show us your true identity and where you work!

Forget 4-6 months. I re-bought at the bottom of the last HPC in 1994 having sold in 1990 when we were entering recession. You'll have to wait until 2013 before we hit the bottom on this one given the economic data around. We haven't even begun to see impending job losses coming through and the impact those will have on prices.

I have always been of the onion that you can do the same work in 4 days as you can in 5 if you knuckle down. Everyone's hours should be reduced to 4 working days for a period of 6 months. . the extra day will then boost the economy as people will go out shopping.

I seem to re-call that in the 70's there was a limit on how much money (sterling) you could take out of the country, hopefully that will never return