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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by needle

  1. The other side of this arguement is that Channel 4 themselves are running a business. By all accounts their property programs are very popular and attract a huge audience and therefore advertising revenues. Its the same story with my local newspaper - delivered free. There must be 30 pages out of 100 devoted to EA ads. Running stories about a HPC would damage their own advertising base. Similarily if they ran stories about how bad a particular make of car was, I would imagine the car maker would cancel its account. I'm not saying its right, just that there are other considerations - subtlety, nuances, balance.....something lacking on some of the threads here lately.
  2. Jayne, you are indeed a pain - far too measured and reasonable to be on this board. On topic - I too have noticed this. However, I wonder how much of this is overpricing to attain a desired price now that people expect a price cut. Like with car sales - nobody pays the "list price" its just a starting point to haggle down from. Could it be that the ESs/VIs are expecting £200k but pricing at, say, £220k? The buyer walks away thinking they got a bargain, the seller gets a reasonable price.
  3. Ohhh looks like we got a real live intelligent person on the board. Very good analysis m8 - keep it coming.
  4. Its increasingly obvious to me that the uber-bears (not the regular bears - of which I am one) are adopting the tactics of the uber-bulls who used to occupy this site spouting their nonsense. I put up a perfectly innocent thread asking a question that any self-aware person would ask and..... it ended up with a good deal of mud-slinging and emotive rubbish being posted. There were people pushing political agendas ("owning a house is my right" - its not having shelter is a right, owning a home is not), people living in fairy tales ("why cant I afford to live in my area" - because its too expensive), people being malicious (anyone who took a risk and bought a house deserves to get shafted), people with misguided perceptions ("London is the crime centre of the universe"), US-style survivalists (stock up on tinned food and gold bullion) and people who are just down on everything (get out now england is a doomed hell hole), racists (its all them foreigners buying houses wot caused the problem) and those who take anything that anyone says as a personal insult, conspiracy theorists (the banks want us as slaves)....I could go on.... See, what will happen now (below) is that the lunatic fringe will have a pop at me not my suggestions, ideas or positions. They sound to me (with a few honorable exceptions), just like the bulls who cannot see beyond their own noses. When I began reading it seemed like a board to exchange opinions, information and ideas. A counter to the b**ls**t peddled by the media. People were looking for balance, justice, a measured response and to have our case heard - now the board looks like a s**t flinging exercise for menopausal lunatics - the voices of reason (bulls and bears) have been drowned out. EDIT - sorry mods - posted in wrong forum - can u move?
  5. Angry that other people have made money through their own hard work and I didnt? Angry that the government wont do what I want. Angry that God wont just float down and fix everything just the way I want it. Angry that I havent got my "share". Angry that I have to rent rather than buy a property, with heating and all essential services. Angry that someone else did better than me so I wanna tear the whole playhouse down. But Angry that there are people starving in Niger? Angry that thousands die in war and conflict every day? Angry at corruption and siphoning of public funds? Of course not - how would it profit you to be angry about these things. Thats the key. Some of the uber-bears on hear need a good sharp kick in the ass. Get things into perspective and ffs stop whining about everything all the damn time. There are a hell of a lot of worse things in this world than an overpriced house.
  6. I was just about to despair of the Waco element on the board. Finally someone is talking sense. Nice one Munro.
  7. @Boom and Bust Thanks for your comments - at least you didnt jump down my throat! I'll extend you the same courtesy, but I do have to take issue with the above points. Your concern for your daughter is evident and understandable but statements like "Parts of JoBurgh or Sao Paulo" and "higher rape levels than many American cities" are a little exaggerated, dont you think? I would contend that the real life figures do not bear this out. On another note, yes there are dangerous areas and dangerous people about but almost 250,000 people live in Hackney alone. Thats a huge population compressed into a small area. What I am getting at is - can we seperate the house price "hysteria" from the actual facts. Im not saying youre wrong, just that a more evidential, fact-based approach is needed. Your measured response, suggests you understand exactly where I am coming from. regards "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?"
  8. Ok let me address a few (seemingly) good points made by London-loser. Let me state from the outset, I am NOT a bull and I am NOT trolling. What I AM is asking for a calm and level-headed assessment. Right. The figures hold up but the logic does not. You need to earn £44k - but that means 2 people earning £22k. This is BELOW the national average earnings and well below the London average. Maybe in your part of London this holds true. But why do you have to live there? This is exactly my point - there are many houses available in London 2 and 3 beds at these prices - why not move there? I have a huge problem with this "average" price of houses. I dont agree with it when bulls quote it and I dont rate it when used by bears either. "Average House Prices" - what does it mean? The price of and "average" house? What does and "average" house in a city of 8 million people look like? Or does it mean the sum total of all property divided by the number of properties? So the average of a house in Kensington at £1 million and a flat in East Ham at £100k is what...... £550k? It doesnt mean anything and its very important that people dont get caught up in this trap.
  9. The other side of the arguement could be that these "shoe boxes" are (albeit marginally) cheaper to heat and are (generally) closer to the city centre - usually the main employment area. If oil prices continue to rise, its suburbia that will be hardest hit, not the city centres.
  10. zzg - I've read a lot of your posts and agree with them in general. But surely you realise that treating housing as a commodity is exactly what caused the problem in the first place. People buy commodities to trade and profit. That is the problem I have with House Prices. House prices are overvalued - yes - but I'm not so sure Home prices are. With respect (and I do mean that) surely looking at houses as commodities is part of the problem, not the solution?
  11. This is exactly my point Oz - there is nothing picky about what you want. But you must realise if your salary is £10k then its not going to happen. If your salary is £30k and you want to live in, say, Surrey its not going to happen. If however, you are prepared to move to East London or Northamptonshire I'm sure your money will go a lot further. My point again - you cannot get what you want, where you want, when you want it - thats being unreasonable. Look at other options. There are a raft of houses for sale in London 2 and 3 beds from 150k upwards. People are just being picky - they want Hammersmith and they want it now and they want it within their budget. There are literally thousands of houses available in London, for example, below £200k. People having tantrums at me or corrrecting me about what a Civil Engineer might earn is all bluff and bluster. The facts hold true, not the hype. I am most definately NOT a bull - but I am a pragmatist.
  12. Is it possible that buyers are too picky? Seen an article in the Local paper about a cop from the area. He was bemoaning the fact that he couldnt afford a house in the area where he was brought up. He went on to say that he father had bought the house in the 1970's for £3000 and it was now worth "over £500k" - prices he could not afford on a constables salary. Neatly hidden at the end of the article was a reference to his fathers occupation - Civil Engineering. Can people really be so naive as to think that their salaries (in their 20s) should entitle them to live where their better-qualified and better-paid family members live? I have no illusions regarding the fact that I cannot afford my parents house or to live in the area they live in. But they didnt start there, they got there through 40 years of work. Im beginning to wonder if some of this wishing for HPC is nothing more than the middle-classes acting in the same way as the "chavs" they so despise - they feel they are entitled to everything. Any views on this?
  13. Am I the only one who thinks its all gone a bit "armageddon" on this board? Are we in for tough times - yes. Have we been here before - yes Have we survived it - yes Will it happen this year - no - it will happen over an extended period. Are we all doomed - no Will there be civil/political upheaval - perhaps, but it will sort the wheat from the chaff. Those who can walk it from those who just talk it. Will "western society" fall - no, we have the best system, despite its faults. Put it this way - if there were a huge "depression" type crash and you are wondering how to protect your assets - then you are part of the problem. This US-style "survivalist" tone should be tempered by the motto of the finest Americans, the Marine Corps - Improvise, Adapt and Overcome. If you are smart enough to get a computer, connect to the internet, navigate to this site, and post your opinion - then you are smart enough to deal with a recession. Less of the BNP style paranoia and scaremongering, please. 'nuff said.
  14. eh...how about "What goes up, must come down"
  15. I'm not so sure that a lack of education and being media-fed a load of crap is someones "fault". I'm sure that there are some gormless, greedy people who have managed to pile up a load of debts and mortgage the next 10 years of their lives. But then there are others who, through a lack of education, confidence or basic self-control have found themselves in a difficult position. Sneering is not a solution - in fact its part of the problem. People with this attitude are the same as those who milked the gullible, vunerable and uneducated in the first place. The old adage that "you treat others as you see yourself" might be one to take on board.
  16. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4136290.stm
  17. I like to quote myself, it adds spice to my conversation
  18. On the manchester flats thing - its just a revenge for thatcherism. I do not believe that the mandarins in New Labour are that naive - I smell a strategy. Would I be being conspiritorial if I thought the Manchester (and elsewhere) buy to let availability is nothing more than New Labour putting the costs of housing onto the private sector? Why have the government pay to build social housing when the private sector has such an unused overcapacity? Why have government pay for the maintainence? Help put, perhaps by providing some of the rent, by all means, but drop the capital cost on the private sector. This policy is a political masterstroke. Genius.
  19. Didnt one senior tory call it a "good election to lose"?
  20. Houses might be "cheaper" but the cost of living will increase. There will only be a marginal benefit to those who think they will wait and make a killing. For the majority, the affordability problem will remain. It is possible that rents will decline to a point where it makes no sense to buy. Regardless of personal predjudices for or against europe - most of the continent has operated quite happily like this for nearly all of the 20th century.
  21. @swipe and bushboy Many people are convinced that this has all got to do with a theory called "peak oil". That is, the world is presently pumping the maximum amount of oil that it possibly can. This has two sides. Firstly no more oil is available than is currently available, therefore the increase in demand for oil (from china, india etc..) cannot be met with increased production and therefore prices will rise with demand. Secondly, and this should be noted, at the peak we are at the mid point of the graph. Therefore there is still the same amount of oil that has ever been pumped available to be extracted. That is, there is plenty of oil left, we're not going to "run out" of oil - the pessimists often overlook this. This problem can be addressed quickly and effectively by people being careful about how they use resources - recycle, drive less, dont leave the TV on all night. If you are afraid of change, and afraid of acknowledging your own part in this problem, then you have a lot to fear. If you are prepared to make changes in how you live your life - if you play your part - I believe any disruption can be mitigated. That said, "peak oil" is just a theory and there are plenty of people who disagree with it. Hope that helps.
  22. Without a doubt. Think in simple, common-sense terms Food needs to be delivered. So there will be some increase here. Food needs to be kept fresh, using plastics - plastics are made from oil. Plastics will become more expensive. Electricity and gas, generated or delivered using oil. And of course plain old vanilla "petrol" gets more expensive for the consumer. Inflation up. Spending down. House prices staggering = ......I dont wanna think about it.
  23. Our media guru should address this issue to John Snow at CH4. However it would be damaging if HPC members were trolling over there so it might be best to tone it down.
  24. Additionally, youre assuming the whole country will be up in arms about a potential "crash" but dont forget - prices dont matter a damn unless you are buying or selling. So the vast majority of the population will be unaffected.
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