Harold Bishop

All from Exmork in China http://www.exmork.com/water-3kw-low.htm Go direct, unless Ivan can offer a valuable consultancy service.

Agreed. However, I believe this is yesterday's thinking. My father in law is a civil engineer and so am I. He, now in his 70's thinks all power generation other than nuclear ( or coal) is rubbish. Its a centralise / de-centralise argument. Further there is a lot of VI in the energy business ( a magnitude bigger than housing) and getting facts is difficult. Energy is not my field but water is. There are similarities and the costs of both are largely in distribution. Water falls out of the sky, so, people think is free but you try moving it around in any sort of quantity. Developing (and war torn) regions need water and power fast. A de-centralised supply works, especially with modern computer technology. Working down scale to a household level could work. Dom, what is centralised sustainable generation?

The figures seem to pan out better if you go alone rather than go through the government official installers. Try searching Exmork in China for PVs. A friend in my village has 6 kw installed on a home made timber decking structure in his garden. He can clean them and adjust the angle of attact Winter and Summer. He has also put up 2 no. 1 kw turbines. He has an electrical back ground which helps. Everything came from China directly to his front door. The service and back up has been perfect. The PVs are Suntech and very good. He has a ROC meter and Eon (?) did all the paperwork for the rebates. The payback is around 5 years ( at current electric charges). Had he gone via the offical route with gov grants etc , it would have made no financial sense. He has now set up a business and VAT registered, so, he has claimed back the VAT on all his equipment costs. Of course, he has to account for the VAT on everything he sells. PVs are getting cheaper per kW all the time as production cost savings kick in. Mostly from China. I believe properties that have a power/water/food production capabilities will in future become very attractive. By the way, I fully support anyone spending their hard earned money on these projects - so, good on you. This sort of investment should be rewarded. Its not just about the money but it demonstrates that it is possible for individuals to do their bit !

Umm, I've heard this before. Surely, cattle are close on carbon neutral because they mostly eat grass, which absorbs CO2 as its grows. A bit like burning wood. There is some hydrocarbon input in the fertilizers for the grass and feed production. Grass is converted to meat ( later burnt on your BBQ), methane, CO2 and other organic matter. Don't know, probably talking bullsh!t.

Cottage was worth £70k in 1995 and nearly £300 k in 2007. Net takings were £8k in 1995 and £10k in 2007. In 12 years, loads more cottages became available ( housing boom, converted barns etc) and Sterling became very strong making overseas holidays cheap. The 35 weeks booked annually became nearer 25 weeks. Many cottage let for only the school holidays plus a few bank holiday weeks, so, around 12 weeks per year. To do more, you need a 4 - 5 star cottage with Aga, log burners, cental heating, power showers, very high quality furnishings, handmade kitchens, gardens etc and annual improvements. We drew the line at hamper deliveries, patio heaters and a heated swimming pool ! I once got a call from a very pissed off holiday maker at 10 at night complaining that there wasn't a garlic press in the house. Stop me now.... or it'll end up being a Faulty Towers rant. Frankly, the season in the UK is too short, so, the cottage owners try to screw as much as they can out of a few weeks ! As I said, if you want a cottage in the country, buy one and enjoy it but think very carefully about going into the letting business.

I know a bit about the " holiday cottage letting" business. Did it for 12 years starting in 1995. The net return at the beginning based on 35 weeks letting per year, paying the letting agency and doing all the maintenance, change-overs, laundry, cleaning etc ourselves, the net return on the capital value of the cottage was 12 %. In 2007, the net return dropped to under 3%. If we had paid someone to do all the work we did and had to pay a mortgage it would have been well into negative figures. Crap UK weather, (still) cheap overseas holidays and anything less than 4 or 5 star rating for your cottage means it will not be viable until prices are back to 1995 levels. My advice is if you desire a holiday cottage then buy one but don't expect it to be a good earner.

What do EAs mean when they say houses have to be "correctly priced" to sell ? 2002 prices ? 1995 prices ?

PVs power output reduces with increased temperatures. Ditto with dirt. The area required may need to be increased which means more cleaning ! I'm a big fan of PVs and even hold shares in Suntech. Also, check Heliovolt in California. They have developed the CIGS thin film PV which I believe can be printed onto a fabric like an ink jet printer. Higher efficiency than the silicon based PVs but not at full scale production yet. For PM holders, they should consider Indium which is the I in CIGS ! I know PVs to hydrogen has been rubbished but industrial scale PVs in North Africa generating hydrogen must have some merrit. The hydrogen can be delivered through the exisiting gas pipe infrastructure to Europe.

I believe so long as the Germans have a say over European IRs, they will take inflation very seriously - even if it means the club Med countries are in pain. History taught the Germans a very good lesson.

Yep, on the opening snippits of the 8 am news, when they were waiting for the FSTE to show up. A reporter mentioned the possiblity of zero interest rates and quoted "free money !". The people do no realise there is a dislocation between BoE rates and their own borrowing rates. It doesn't help with BBC reporters broadcasting "free money". FFS !

Correct. People don't understand this. Further, they do not understand a 100% rise in value is a 50% drop in value. A BTL is a business (if its been correctly declared to the lender) and the lender may insist on the 20% equity, meaning even the SVR will not be available. Worst case, the lender may ask the mortgagee for a lump sum payment to get the LTV ratio right. Private house buyers just get stuck on a crap SVR and negative equity. BTLers in this situation will have to sell.

I think its a dead certainty. Drop IRs, devalue £ and infalte the economy. Anything to prevent a HPC. Probably too late.

And Darling will demand IR cuts to keep the housing from crashing - after all, UK inflation is under control

Just watched on iplayer. Bear food feast. Talk of crash, toxic waste, helicoptor money, printing money, inflation, no more levers to pull. Blimey, I thought HPC was bearish !

It does cost money to change currencies and an individual can't keep swapping. Think of it as a percentage and then consider the percentage interest rate you are earning on your deposits and the potential currency percentage changes. I've earned very low Euro interest but far more than any UK bank deposit if the exchange rate is considered. But you end up gambling on the currency markets with your cash. As I see it, its no different ot buying gold. In Sterling gold has done ok but in $ terms its soaring. Great if you want to buy a house in the States. Maybe you should consider buying a house in a different country and not be stuck on the UK. Expand your horizons. Mainland Europe has not, on the whole, suffered the hpi that we have seen in the UK. Ask RB when it will be a good time to but US $. I work a bit in Miami and houses in Florida are starting to make sense.

The economists do see the other side of the story. But this is political and I believe inflation will be allowed to rise in the "short term". That is not an obvious or immediate vote loser and can be blamed on others. But voters not being able to pay their mortgages, repocessions and hpc are all immediate vote losers. Nulabour know this and will cut rates. As I've said before, the link between BoE base rates and lending rates is broken, which is not generally understood and this gives NuLabour a great excuse to blame the greedy banks for not passing on the rate cuts. They are fully paid up members of the "Blame Everyone Else Club".

How can that work ? Would there be an ERM in reverse ?

In 1998, oil was $15.4 pb, inflation adjusted about $20 pb. Petrol was 61 p/l and inflation adjusted about 75 p/l. Today oil is about $105 pb and petrol is about 109 p/l. Petrol looks cheap to me at the moment ! Is there any chance of oil dipping to $20 pb soon ? I mean, it could just be trading on thin air according to RK.

From that BBC article ... Germany retains its crown as the world's top exporter, selling almost one trillion euros ($1.5 trillion) worth of goods abroad in 2007, according to the Federal Statistics Office, compared with China's $1.22 trillion... But of course RB and Ambrose of the Telegraph will continue to go on about the Euro self destructing, it not likely to survive beyond 2010 and the US$ is great. I think the real problem is Sterling. Both Europe and the USA will manufacture and export their way out of this mess. The UK will continue to export repeats of the Vicar of Dibley.

Or include falling house prices in the inflation index. I think the desire to cut rates is high and then blame the "very bad" banks/mortgage lenders for not passing on the cuts. The fact that the link between the BoE base rate and mortage rates has to a large extent been broken is lost on the masses and NuLabour know this. Hpc and repocessions will make mainstream news at some stage and they are vote losers. Our political leaders will do everything they can to make sure the fallout from Gordon's failing miracle economy does not stick to them and blame whoever they can. A series of rate cuts and fudged inflation figures will be dished up.

Steve, thats a brilliantly clear post. Thanks. I'm a big fan of renewable to hydrogen but as you point out, its the delivery of hydrogen in meaningful quantities that is the issue. However, can this "quantity of supply" issue not be improved by investment in infrastructure ? After all, its taken the oil industry most of the 20th century to put in place trillions of $ of investment to make petrol/oil is freely available to the masses. In the early oil days, its was rare and no doubt very expensive. I believe all fuels, hydrogen, hydrocarbon, electricity will progressively become rationed to essential services either by legislation or price. Also, I believe it is critical that we become far, far more efficient at using energy, so that the emerging, alternative energy industry stands a chance of becoming accepted. I'm going to buy a horse ! They're starting to look quite cheap to run for local journeys, so long as you have a few fields to re-fuel them with.

There seemed to be so much dislike of the Boat Show at Excel that another Boatshow (re) started at Earls Court, its historical home. Anyway, the Southampton Boat Show knocks both the London shows into a cocked hat

Is there a case to argue that the USD will rise from the ashes ( aka RB, well priced big export manufacturers such as CAT, Deere etc) and the Euro will remain strong ( ECB tough on inflation, high quality export industries etc) whereas Sterling ends up weakening against both the $ and the Euro as there is little to justify its strength ? In other words, Sterling loses its place at the top table and becomes a minority player.

What extra special bad news has spooked the GBP Euro ?

Holiday letting is considered a business and all sales and expenses are accounted for. In Cornwall, the local councils use their option to charge 100% council tax on holiday homes. Previously, it was discounted 50% because the holiday houses were only 50% occupied. Once the 100% was imposed, most switched to cheaper business rates. This proposal by GB will go no where because it of this business element. Some second holiday homes are just for private use of the owners but I would guess the bulk are available for "holidays" even if they are not let to tourists. These run up a big accounting loss each year... The government don't seem to understand the difference between long term lets, holiday homes and strictly private second homes. They are all just considered second homes and therefore bad.