How Many Ultra Bears Are Surprised By Recent Events?

[hope4crash]

Money/personal gain? My wife worked in the human resources (or wtf it's called these days) of a Japanese bank ten years back, seemed to her back then the more you negotiated your; salary, bonus, argued about fukcin luncheon vouchers, car allowance, extra day holiday, pension transfers/contributions... the more respect you got....

These guys are short term, none of them IMHO give a flying re. the history and future, past their own contract length and value and why should they? The history has been smashed to pieces over the past few months and is irrelevant anyhow in the sector they operate in.

and folks then deride management consultants (i.e. people like me) for trying to take the long term view to make businesses sustainable and hence viable.

Again: which who was advising/forcing through LTSB to do the HBOS deal - and why - as it makes no business sense - short or long term. So there has to be another reason for doing this.

I'll re-itterate: a CEOs mandate is to deliver stability and value to shareholders - this deal doesn't tick the boxes on either in the long term - so what's really going on?

Tomorrow is looking like it will be carnage.

[Guest Mr Parry]

Thanks. So 37% is the average-mean best market-guess for a safe margin or crash.

Given recent events, and depending on when "just" was, your friend is quids in.

Not quids in. But he and Mrs. Paramedic do still have a roof over their heads.

He bought it when it was an absolute wreck. Awful place. Spent a few quid on it. Just to make a home. His problem will be if inflation does bite and the GOVT keep public sector pay rises capped at 2%. Trying to pay down debt as fast as possible.

[Converted Lurker]

Arrr. . . not buying, re-mortgaging after last fixed rate deal expired. Shows there is still credit available, even now at reasonable rates.

one big issue now is valuations as folk are coming off their 3 year deals. As prices continue to fall they'll find, (whereas they may have had 30% equity a year back), it'll be close to zero in 12 months time and the deal you get with 80% is approx 6.75%. Where they had 30% equity last year it's close on 15% now, after a harsh (proper) valuation.

Edited September 19, 2008 by Converted Lurker

[Guest Mr Parry]

Who is Mrs Paramedic?

Sorry Durch,

They're both paramedics, technician grade and one full paramedic. Early thirties. Don't earn much, but manage okay at the moment.

[Converted Lurker]

and folks then deride management consultants (i.e. people like me) for trying to take the long term view to make businesses sustainable and hence viable.

Again: which who was advising/forcing through LTSB to do the HBOS deal - and why - as it makes no business sense - short or long term. So there has to be another reason for doing this.

I'll re-itterate: a CEOs mandate is to deliver stability and value to shareholders - this deal doesn't tick the boxes on either in the long term - so what's really going on?

Tomorrow is looking like it will be carnage.

I guess you're locked into your own personal standards, ethics, belief system... which obviously serves you well. These guys are sharks, they're pr masters. Think Blair in his mid term after he started to realise he could do the job/ get away with it by simply getting into character.

[Guest Mr Parry]

Did he use bandages?

No, plaster.

[Guest Mr Parry]

What does that (their deep and wonderful compassion) have to do with anything, out of interest?

Nothing.

Just to give you an idea of jobs/income.

[hope4crash]

I guess you're locked into your own personal standards, ethics, belief system... which obviously serves you well. These guys are sharks, they're pr masters. Think Blair in his mid term after he started to realise he could do the job/ get away with it by simply getting into character.

Point taken but ultimately CEOs are at the mercy of their board, and ultimately, their shareholders.

If it all tanks (tomorrow not looking good) there will be big questions being asked of them.

Anyway - way past my bedtime - this AM will be interesting to say the least!

[guitarman001]

Quite frankly I must admit that I am shocked at the events unfolding THIS WEEK ALONE!

Let's admit it; we all expected some of these things to happen. Inevitable you my say. But with those in power.. you sort of thought it never would have happened; always something dodgy up their sleeve.

But now it's coming down llike a tonne of bricks. The West looks f*cked. In fact they say it's happening the world over; greedy human b*st*rds.

I never used to believe in the 'get a shotgun and loads of baked beans!' ethos, but it's been ta the back of my mind lately (well, the baked beans bit anyway!).

I think it'll be a long DECADE... On the upside, IF we come through it all, the positives (for me) are that I'll have a deposit for a place, UK or outside. My research position is (hopefully) concrete, though working with a start-up is nerve-wracking. If there's a way to make money out of all of this, then I'll be taking it.

It's a bit of a conundrum. You see what mess greed has got us all in... but if YOU got the chance to make some money out of the misery, would YOU do it, meaning you had to screw others or the system over? After all, many others only look out for number 1. Would you?

I must admit I have actually been revelling with the 'miserable' news of late. No longer can friends and co-workers deny what has been going on; it is now the bears' day and it's sweet justice to see those who laughed in your face face the music. A severly harsh dose of reality... bring it on!

I'm sure many have been shunned by friends or get blamed for their bleak outlook on things. Saying we ruin things with what we say. Although a friend, I cannot wait to see the look on my 23 year-old, below average-earnings mate who recently got a mortage on a £140k new-build flat... when the shit hits the fan. And when I get a house for £80k

Edited September 19, 2008 by thomasross20

[Nicholas Cage]

The US Defence Secretary has told Sky News that another Russian attack on Georgia once it has joined Nato would result in an American armed response.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-New...Has_Joined_Nato

This suprised me, I think the Ultra Bears were right all along but I didn't believe it. There wasn't a clear path though.

[JustYield]

greedy human b*st*rds.

...

Although a friend, I cannot wait to see the look on my 23 year-old, below average-earnings mate who recently got a mortage on a £140k new-build flat... when the shit hits the fan. And when I get a house for £80k

So the cycle continues.

[guitarman001]

No, I'm saying an £80k house is much more value for money than my friend's £140 new-build flat! When I have a place, I hope to pay it off pronto and save so that I can retire early! Life's too short to worry about making lots of money and not having time to spend it!

[Ethel]

So guys, what's the overall consensus:

Is it, or isn't it, "different this time"?

[dances with sheeple]

This is the bit I'm not getting.

Imagine: you're the LTSB CEO - surely you can see this coming a few years down the line - so why merge and take on liabilities when the regulatory goal posts keep moving and look set to continue to do so? Looking at long term strategy with the current markets you're not looking at a ROI for a few years (at best) by which time you may be broken up before you can realise your investment. So why bother?!

A CEOs remit is to build a stable business that maximises shareholder value and profits - I don't see how this works here unless there are other factors in play here - and I'd like to know what they are.

The factors are the collapse of the basic capitalistic led life that we all lead, disruption to payroll, food deliveries, millions being chucked out of their house. banks need an orderly society to conduct their money magic, the only game in town now is preventing systemic collapse, all the CEo`s will play this game with the politicians until they think they have secured their beloved system.