Edinburgh Facts And Figures

[ccc]

Updated rental stats. Big drop in numbers. Although same thing happened last year. However last year was of a far larger base. The difference between the number at 5-600 & 6-700 is still not spreading. So looks like far less places for rent than in the last few years, however the amounts paid do not seem to be rising.

The total number has not been this low since April 2008 - when I forst started doing this.

Rent it out instead finally letting go ? Would fit in with the large rise in places for sale most are seeing across Edinburgh.

Anyway - interesting for once !!!

[ccc]

Figures attached. Seem to be having issues with uploading.

[fflump]

ESPC Q3 data out.

"good" news:

Marchmont/Bruntsfield 2-bedders back at a more realistic £263k. Still too high but confirms that last quarter's £290k was a blip.

(previous quarters before that were 258,265,254,252,222,239,253, 260,252)-going back in time-so essentially flat prices over the last 3 years.

Stats for city of edinburgh and edinburgh city centre look strong but most likely continue to be skewed by the type of property that is actually selling.

Gorgie 1-bedders still inching down (now at 105k). Unlike the Marchmont/Bruntsfield 2-bedders, gorgie flats have not been flat over the past 3 years-they have dropped around 17% from peak, which reflects how ludicrously expensive they became relative to other proprties in edinburgh. 1 -bed on easter road and leith walk.

[ccc]

ESPC Q3 data out.

"good" news:

Marchmont/Bruntsfield 2-bedders back at a more realistic £263k. Still too high but confirms that last quarter's £290k was a blip.

(previous quarters before that were 258,265,254,252,222,239,253, 260,252)-going back in time-so essentially flat prices over the last 3 years.

Stats for city of edinburgh and edinburgh city centre look strong but most likely continue to be skewed by the type of property that is actually selling.

Gorgie 1-bedders still inching down (now at 105k). Unlike the Marchmont/Bruntsfield 2-bedders, gorgie flats have not been flat over the past 3 years-they have dropped around 17% from peak, which reflects how ludicrously expensive they became relative to other proprties in edinburgh. 1 -bed on easter road and leith walk.

Would still be very interested to find out exactly what area the ESPC classes as 'Gorgie'. I can only imagine it includes some areas on the 'edge'. You can have your pick of one bedders from about 30-40 all under or around 100k.

No idea how there can be an average price of 105k from that selection. Makes no sense. Unless of course some of the larger nicer ones with separate kitchens are the only ones to have sold recently.

FTB best time ever

Apparently best time ever for FTB's. Mmm

[geneer]

Stats for city of edinburgh and edinburgh city centre look strong but most likely continue to be skewed by the type of property that is actually selling.

Strong. Not sure about that.

The ESPC monthly show a £12K fall over the last 2 months.

Thats with the observed townhouse/mansion stat skew.

And the EAs are predicting figures to fall back to where they were at the start of the year.

i.e. another £25K. Not all that strong.

I suppost they would know, as they have the mix data. I can only assume they want to get ahead of the inevitable.

Thats one thing the crash has taught the VIs. If you want to continuously ********, you just might end up looking like a bullshitter when it all goes south.

Edited October 8, 2010 by geneer

[fflump]

Strong. Not sure about that.

The ESPC monthly show a £12K fall over the last 2 months.

Thats with the observed townhouse/mansion stat skew.

And the EAs are predicting figures to fall back to where they were at the start of the year.

i.e. another £25K. Not all that strong.

I suppost they would know, as they have the mix data. I can only assume they want to get ahead of the inevitable.

Thats one thing the crash has taught the VIs. If you want to continuously ********, you just might end up looking like a bullshitter when it all goes south.

Personally I pay very little attention to the monthly data as it will be very noisy due to small sample size. Quarterly data is better IMO

looking at the monthly data the series from january goes 196-200-218-224-230-227-235-229-224

I see you've picked the spike of 235 as your reference-do you really think that is reliable? I bet you didn't think it was reliable back when it was actually reported! i.e. a 8k rise in one month june to july!

Similarly the leap of 18k in one month feb to march looks weird.

Quoting a 12k drop over 2 months looks to me like your spinning the data in a way the VIs do.

[ccc]

Everything is skewed because pretty much ****** ALL FTB flats are selling.

House prices are falling all over the shop. And that is with very few sales.

[geneer]

Personally I pay very little attention to the monthly data as it will be very noisy due to small sample size. Quarterly data is better IMO

looking at the monthly data the series from january goes 196-200-218-224-230-227-235-229-224

I see you've picked the spike of 235 as your reference-do you really think that is reliable? I bet you didn't think it was reliable back when it was actually reported! i.e. a 8k rise in one month june to july!

Similarly the leap of 18k in one month feb to march looks weird.

Quoting a 12k drop over 2 months looks to me like your spinning the data in a way the VIs do.

You can call it spin. I call it the statistical skew dropping out. And theres more to come.

You want to be looking at the bigger picture.

Quarterly data can also be afflicted by statistical spikes IMO.

Particularly as the organisation responsible has said month to month to month that the skew has peen present and they expect it

to collapse like a deck of cards eventually.

Sorry, but this does not a strong market make.

Edited October 9, 2010 by geneer

[fflump]

You can call it spin. I call it the statistical skew dropping out.

There is no evidence that the statistical skew is dropping out. FTBs continue to desert the market-there is no evidence whatsoever that the market profile has changed dramatically over the 2 month window you quote.

You want to be looking at the bigger picture.

Says the person who is quoting the minutiae of single month figures lol!

Quarterly data can also be afflicted by statistical spikes IMO.

Well any data is subject to statistical error but lesson 1.01 of stats will tell you that as sample size increases, error is reduced i.e quarterly data is more reliable than monthly. What ESPC data IS subject to is seasonal variation since it is not seasonally adjusted. Thus, YoY trends are more reliable than QoQ since even in a flat market in the ESPC you will see a rise Q1 to Q2 and a fall Q3 to Q4.

Sorry, but this does not a strong market make.

This is not a strong market but prices remain quite strong on the back of low volumes. This has been the case for 2+ yrs now and it'll take higher IRs to precipitate the forced sellers needed to shake down this market.

[ccc]

This is not a strong market but prices remain quite strong on the back of low volumes.

<Of those that actually manage to sell>

Once things finally start to sell in larger volumes ? Well we all know which way prices will go and they will continue to go.

[geneer]

There is no evidence that the statistical skew is dropping out.

Aside from prices plummeting over the last 2 months yeah.

You may prefer quarterlies.. But lets not pretend we have to wait to december to see which way its going.

Says the person who is quoting the minutiae of single month figures lol!

You mean two monthy figures don't you. How many more do we need to make up a quarter.

Well any data is subject to statistical error but lesson 1.01 of stats will tell you that as sample size increases, error is reduced i.e quarterly data is more reliable than monthly. What ESPC data IS subject to is seasonal variation since it is not seasonally adjusted. Thus, YoY trends are more reliable than QoQ since even in a flat market in the ESPC you will see a rise Q1 to Q2 and a fall Q3 to Q4.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

So no mention of the EA's commentary, for months now, that the figures are indeed skewed by high end properties.

And their repeated assertion that this will drop out.

What do they know right. They only compile the raw data.

This is not a strong market but prices remain quite strong on the back of low volumes. This has been the case for 2+ yrs now and it'll take higher IRs to precipitate the forced sellers needed to shake down this market.

Do us a favour Fflump. Please update your status to Bull.

That kind of tedious bet hedging isn't as clever as you think.

Edited October 10, 2010 by geneer

[fflump]

Aside from prices plummeting over the last 2 months yeah.

You may prefer quarterlies.. But lets not pretend we have to wait to december to see which way its going.

You mean two monthy figures don't you. How many more do we need to make up a quarter.

You need 6 for QoQ figures.

So no mention of the EA's commentary, for months now, that the figures are indeed skewed by high end properties.

Hmmm, so who said "stats for city of edinburgh and edinburgh city centre look strong but most likely continue to be skewed by the type of property that is actually selling."

Oh-it was me a few posts ago

And their repeated assertion that this will drop out.

It will drop out-no evidence that it hasdropped out. When the skew drops out we will see larger drops than the statistical blip you are clinging to.

Do us a favour Fflump. Please update your status to Bull.

That kind of tedious bet hedging isn't as clever as you think.

A bull would indicate that I am bullish about property prices i.e that I think prices will rise. I do not-so it is a rather irrational request on your part. I'm sorry that you find my disagreeing with you tedious. I would find it more tedious if everyone agreed with everyone else personally but each to his own. As for me being as clever as I think I am-you're right I probably am not. But, given you reply to a serious statistical point and comment on the non-seasonal adjustment of ESPC data with "zzzzzzz" I will not worry unduly about being intellectually inferior in this particular exchange

[geneer]

You need 6 for QoQ figures.

Technically a correct statement, but absolutely nothing to do with what I asked.

Nice smokescreen.

Try again.

Hmmm, so who said "stats for city of edinburgh and edinburgh city centre look strong but most likely continue to be skewed by the type of property that is actually selling."

Oh-it was me a few posts ago

Ah, so when you said they "look" strong you meant they aren't really strong and liable to fall apart. Good to know.

It will drop out-no evidence that it hasdropped out. When the skew drops out we will see larger drops than the statistical blip you are clinging to.

Because only quarterly figures count yeah. Zzzzzzzzzzzz.

I'd suggest theres £12K of evidence.

And multiple statements that there is more to come.

You remember? The EA commentary you've pointedly refused to discuss.

A bull would indicate that I am bullish about property prices i.e that I think prices will rise. I do not-so it is a rather irrational request on your part. I'm sorry that you find my disagreeing with you tedious. I would find it more tedious if everyone agreed with everyone else personally but each to his own. As for me being as clever as I think I am-you're right I probably am not. But, given you reply to a serious statistical point and comment on the non-seasonal adjustment of ESPC data with "zzzzzzz" I will not worry unduly about being intellectually inferior in this particular exchange

Its not your disagreeing I find tedious. Its your "only bear in the village" posturing.

Lets be clear, you may not think house prices will rise.

Do you think house prices will fall?

Cos you seem to be going all out to dispute the case.

Your not a "soft lander" are you?

As to ignoring your alleged "point" on statistical blah-blah-whatever, ive already pointed out that 2 months is one month shy of 3.

Whilst it may not fall on one of the magical "canonical" points of the year, I'm sure you can add up a few numbers then divide by a small number for that "reliable" indicator.

Anyone who thinks £35K fluctuations in house prices is "seasonal" needs to think again.

And your assertions that YOY trends are, at the moment, indicative of anything other than a wildly fluctuating markert,

is pretty much laughable.

There you are. Glad you asked?

Are you sure you're not Spamish Mcshouty?

You seem to be singing a lot of the same songs.

Edited October 10, 2010 by geneer

[fflump]

geneer-I'm on record on this forum predicting that real prices will drop 20-30% over the next few years.

If that makes me a bull then guilty as charged!

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday-try not to get too hot-and-bothered about discussions-its only a BB!

[curious]

IMHO, fflump is a rare poster on this forum who knows what he is talking about - particularly when it comes down to the stats. I do not see why understanding of statistics and trends makes him a bull. And notice that even if the prices remain flat (or even go up) but inflation picks up dramatically (due to QE etc), he still will be correct with his prediction of a real drop of 20-30%. I am very curious what you, fflump, do for a living. Sounds like you are very much underpaid given that you are astonishingly good at seeing things through - at least again IMHO

[ccc]

<br />IMHO, fflump is a rare poster on this forum who knows what he is talking about - particularly when it comes down to the stats. I do not see why understanding of statistics and trends makes him a bull. And notice that even if the prices remain flat (or even go up) but inflation picks up dramatically (due to QE etc), he still will be correct with his prediction of a <b>real</b> drop of 20-30%. I am very curious what you, fflump, do for a living. Sounds like you are very much underpaid given that you are astonishingly good at seeing things through - at least again IMHO <img src='http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br />

I think Fflump is a good poster. It is useful to see their use of statistics and all. Very useful. However I feel some people can sometimes get blinded a little by the numbers alone. A step back and a 'feeling' of what is going on, IMO, can be at least and probably more useful to determine where a market is going.

Stats are good. I love them. However when it comes to property prices ? They can do more harm than good sometimes.

I have an inkling that fflump works in 'property' in some way - and comes on here for: one half seriousness / one half a laugh.

Just a hunch.

Edited October 11, 2010 by ccc

[fflump]

IMHO, fflump is a rare poster on this forum who knows what he is talking about - particularly when it comes down to the stats. I do not see why understanding of statistics and trends makes him a bull. And notice that even if the prices remain flat (or even go up) but inflation picks up dramatically (due to QE etc), he still will be correct with his prediction of a real drop of 20-30%. I am very curious what you, fflump, do for a living. Sounds like you are very much underpaid given that you are astonishingly good at seeing things through - at least again IMHO

Thanks curious-cheque is in the post Look forward to more posts from you in the future.

As for being underpaid-aren't we all?

Seriously though Ive no complaints-I suppose we should be grateful we are paid at all at the moment!

I am a little hesitant at stating what I do as I prefer (as do we all) to post anonymously and if I said my job a few people on here at least might know who I am.

[fflump]

I think Fflump is a good poster. It is useful to see their use of statistics and all. Very useful. However I feel some people can sometimes get blinded a little by the numbers alone. A step back and a 'feeling' of what is going on, IMO, can be at least and probably more useful to determine where a market is going.

Stats are good. I love them. However when it comes to property prices ? They can do more harm than good sometimes.

Glad you value my contributions ccc, as I do yours. We may vigorously debate many things but at least it remains civil and I don't end up being accused of trolling FFS! You rely on feeling and hunch more than me this is true. Maybe I rely on numbers too much, maybe not. Equally I know the difference between reliable numbers and unreliable ones. I've had feelings and hunches too about the property market: I thought in 2002 that prices would not go higher. I thought in 2008 that prices would fall quickly and steeply. I was wrong both times but still my feeling is 20-30% real falls this time around. Oh-and given that 1-bed gorgie flats (according to my numbers) peaked out of line with the edinburgh market as a whole (did I convince you of this ccc?) I predict nearer 40% drops for these.

I have an inkling that fflump works in 'property' in some way - and comes on here for: one half seriousness / one half a laugh.

Just a hunch.

Not even warm ccc ;-)

[Scunnered]

I am a little hesitant at stating what I do as I prefer (as do we all) to post anonymously and if I said my job a few people on here at least might know who I am.

First Minister of Scotland?

[ccc]

Glad you value my contributions ccc, as I do yours. We may vigorously debate many things but at least it remains civil and I don't end up being accused of trolling FFS! You rely on feeling and hunch more than me this is true. Maybe I rely on numbers too much, maybe not. Equally I know the difference between reliable numbers and unreliable ones. I've had feelings and hunches too about the property market: I thought in 2002 that prices would not go higher. I thought in 2008 that prices would fall quickly and steeply. I was wrong both times but still my feeling is 20-30% real falls this time around. Oh-and given that 1-bed gorgie flats (according to my numbers) peaked out of line with the edinburgh market as a whole (did I convince you of this ccc?) I predict nearer 40% drops for these.

Not even warm ccc ;-)

Yep - no point in getting all angry on the tinternet. Well apart from when oor Hamish was around.

As for what I do ? It is not difficult to work out I get pretty close on the main forum a lot.

Belly of the beast is clue !!

As for you ? I will work you out eventually !!

[geneer]

geneer-I'm on record on this forum predicting that real prices will drop 20-30% over the next few years.

If that makes me a bull then guilty as charged!

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday-try not to get too hot-and-bothered about discussions-its only a BB!

Thanks Fflump.

Glad my explanations were clear enough for you

[geneer]

Equally I know the difference between reliable numbers and unreliable ones.

If not the fact that 3 months make a quarter,

that YOY is near to useless in the current wildly fluctuating market,

and that these wild fluctuations can't really be considered seasonal variations.

[fflump]

Yep - no point in getting all angry on the tinternet. Well apart from when oor Hamish was around.

As for what I do ? It is not difficult to work out I get pretty close on the main forum a lot.

Belly of the beast is clue !!

As for you ? I will work you out eventually !!

Belly of the beast?

Do you work deep under cover at the ESPC ?

You're not David Marshall are you ??

[Muswell Hillbilly]

Average prices in Edinburgh are down 3.7% YoY, according to the ESPC via the Evening News:

House prices in the Capital fall for first time this year

The ESPC October 2010 report is here.

Edited November 8, 2010 by Muswell Hillbilly

[geneer]

Average prices in Edinburgh are down 3.7% YoY, according to the ESPC via the Evening News:

House prices in the Capital fall for first time this year

The ESPC October 2010 report is here.

House prices have been falling for the last three months of course.