Edinburgh Facts And Figures

[geed]

Thought I would start a new thread which focuses on the facts and figures on the Edinburgh property market. I am forever back tracking through old posts to check on figures and projections of my posts and other fellow posters. Thought it would be a good idea to extract some of the numbers in this topic, that way we can reference them quickly and other non-members can find the facts quickly.

OK I'll start with the imminent ESPC Q2 figure release which I believe is on the 10th of July.

Past mean figures;

Q2 2007 £227,912

Q3 2007 £221,986

Q4 2007 £215,168

Q1 2008 £210,123

Q2 2007 to Q1 2008 = a drop of 7.8% So Edinburgh is currently 7.8% down from peak.

To stop the YoY figures from going negative Q2 2008 figures will have to show a rise of 8.466% from Q1 2008.

As discussed in the "Edinburgh Latest" thread, although transactions are down massively, those properties that have sold may well distort the average up for Q2 even though the sample will be hugely reduced.

Hope this new thread helps

[ccc]

I have been keeping an eye on Gorgie as a good barometer of the Edinburgh Market at the bottom end:

Up until Spring 2008:

One bed flats - Maybe a couple at less than 125k.*

17th May:

One bed flats - 8 at 120k or less.

20th May:

One bed flats - 13 at 120k or less.

One bed flats - 25 at 125k or less.

9th Jun:

One bed flats - 20 at 120k or less.

One bed flats - 32 at 125k or less.

27 Jun:

One bed flats - 22 at 120k or less

One Bed Flats - 31 at 125k or less

* = Rough guess I wasn't actually count back then.

I reckon Gorgie has already fallen by about 5-10% nominal

[geed]

I have been keeping an eye on Gorgie as a good barometer of the Edinburgh Market at the bottom end:

Up until Spring 2008:

One bed flats - Maybe a couple at less than 125k.*

17th May:

One bed flats - 8 at 120k or less.

20th May:

One bed flats - 13 at 120k or less.

One bed flats - 25 at 125k or less.

9th Jun:

One bed flats - 20 at 120k or less.

One bed flats - 32 at 125k or less.

27 Jun:

One bed flats - 22 at 120k or less

One Bed Flats - 31 at 125k or less

* = Rough guess I wasn't actually count back then.

I reckon Gorgie has already fallen by about 5-10% nominal

Its a significant increase in choice and competition. With transactions down it can only lead to falling prices in this area. After new builds, I have always said that Gorgie/Leith older tenaments would be next to fall.

[rosele]

I know a person who has just bought a flat in the new Westerinch development in Bathgate for the purpose of letting out. Scotland as a whole didnt rise in price like the big cities in England, so you honestly think we will fall, if at all? I can see a flat spot for a bit but cerainly no notable falls. Thoughts?

[ccc]

I know a person who has just bought a flat in the new Westerinch development in Bathgate for the purpose of letting out. Scotland as a whole didnt rise in price like the big cities in England, so you honestly think we will fall, if at all? I can see a flat spot for a bit but cerainly no notable falls. Thoughts?

What planet are you from ? Seriously ? You missed all those 'Scottish house prices booming' headlines from teh last 5 years or something !!

As an example Edinburgh is one of the most expensive places in the entire UK. So if we are going by the logic of the 'experts' then Edinburgh should be goosed....

[geed]

I know a person who has just bought a flat in the new Westerinch development in Bathgate for the purpose of letting out. Scotland as a whole didnt rise in price like the big cities in England, so you honestly think we will fall, if at all? I can see a flat spot for a bit but cerainly no notable falls. Thoughts?

WRONG!! sorry to be so blunt but you need to do your homework before coming onto this site and making such rash comments

This graph is from the Registers of Scotland, effectively Scotlands Land Registry. So this is completed sales.

Edinburgh_house_prices__up_my_street_3.bmp

Edinburgh has boomed massively in 2007, where as Wales and England had moderate growth. As you can see from the graph, we are now heading downwards. Also have a look at my first post on this topic. Real facts and real figures from the ESPC and now the registers of Scotland showing Edinburgh falling fast.

I dont have figures for Scotland as a whole but the rest of Scotland will fare worse the the capitol.

I dont know this developent that you friend has bought into, so I can't comment, anyone else?

Edinburgh_house_prices__up_my_street_3.bmp

[geed]

I know a person who has just bought a flat in the new Westerinch development in Bathgate for the purpose of letting out. Scotland as a whole didnt rise in price like the big cities in England, so you honestly think we will fall, if at all? I can see a flat spot for a bit but cerainly no notable falls. Thoughts?

I forgot to add, welcome to this site.

Hopefully, if you have your head screwed on right, this site will help you realise that buying property at present would not be the most wise move. Patience and time will reward those who practice fiscal prudence.

[Muswell Hillbilly]

In the latest ESPC paper, the average selling price for City of Edinburgh in Q2 2008 is given as £233,840, which is up YoY 2.6% from last year’s £227,912.

The latter figure hasn’t been fiddled, but concurs with what ESPC have published previously.

However, the published figure for Q1 2008 was £210,123, making the Q2 a whopping QoQ increase of … 11.3%! I’m surprised they’re not trumpeting this on the front page.

I notice that the rise from Q1 to Q2 2007 was 9.7%, and from Q1 to Q2 2006 was 12.0%, so evidently in Edinburgh there really is a pronounced annual spring bounce.

Sadly, we now need a QoQ drop of 5.1% if we’re finally to get our long-awaited negative YoY figures in the autumn …

[roblpm]

Muswell Hillbilly, 5.1% drop wont happen.

What I see round where I am is FP properties at prices above peaks last year hoping for offer around peak price.

As I am lazy maybe you could post the transaction numbers for the quarters you posted as the other thing that I notice is hardly anything selling. Not many people dropping prices for a sale yet (though I did see one locally which will have blown the level for that particular road).

We are just a year behind England! I reckon winter 2009/10 before we see any improvement!

Edited for spelling.

Edited July 9, 2008 by roblpm

[scotty_boy]

I know a person who has just bought a flat in the new Westerinch development in Bathgate for the purpose of letting out. Scotland as a whole didnt rise in price like the big cities in England, so you honestly think we will fall, if at all? I can see a flat spot for a bit but cerainly no notable falls. Thoughts?

Scotlands prices (especially Edinburgh and surrounding areas) have over inflated over the past 10 years. My parents took out a £130k mortgage for their current house in 1997 and I am applying for a similar mortgage now... the only difference being I am going for 2 bed council flats and they have a large 4 bedroom detached house. House prices are way over what they should be, and they are due to fall back a bit.

As for renting, that is different. There will always be people wanting to rent (especially now when most people cannot buy). Your friend should still be able to charge a reasonable rental price per month, even if the property price does fall.

[ccc]

Sales volumes below from ESPC. (Numbers in brackets are comparable volumes for same period in previous year)

Q2 2007: 3267(3450)- 5.3% down

Q3 2007: 3092(3246)- 4.7% down

Q4 2007: 2510(2979)- 15.7% down

Q1 2008: 1606(1721)- 6.7% down

Q2 2008: ????(3267)- ???

I had a look for the latest figures as you say Muswell Hillbilly but hey are not on the ESPC site. Where did you get them from ?

I reckon the drop in sales could be over 20%.

Edited July 9, 2008 by ccc

[Silverity]

In the latest ESPC paper, the average selling price for City of Edinburgh in Q2 2008 is given as £233,840, which is up YoY 2.6% from last year’s £227,912.

The latter figure hasn’t been fiddled, but concurs with what ESPC have published previously.

However, the published figure for Q1 2008 was £210,123, making the Q2 a whopping QoQ increase of … 11.3%! I’m surprised they’re not trumpeting this on the front page.

I notice that the rise from Q1 to Q2 2007 was 9.7%, and from Q1 to Q2 2006 was 12.0%, so evidently in Edinburgh there really is a pronounced annual spring bounce.

Sadly, we now need a QoQ drop of 5.1% if we’re finally to get our long-awaited negative YoY figures in the autumn …

This news is not on the website yet - presumably it will appear by tomorrow? 11.3%? Q2 is always the busiest quarter and 11% is about the average over

the last five years but I am surprised it has managed to sustain that level! I await the official website pronouncement.

[Muswell Hillbilly]

I had a look for the latest figures as you say Muswell Hillbilly but hey are not on the ESPC site. Where did you get them from ?

I cannot find the total number of sales in Q2 2008 in the ESPC paper. However, there is a wee graph entitled ‘Completed sales – East Central Scotland’, which shows the monthly sales figures. It is difficult to gauge an accurate figure from the graph, but the sales have been falling off dramatically since peaking in April. Trying to read off the axes of the graph, the figures look roughly like this:

April 2007 1,600 sales / April 2008 1,400 sales

May 2007 1,850 sales / May 2008 1,200 sales

June 2007 1,800 sales / June 2008 900 sales

No doubt you’ll have picked up a copy of the ESPC paper and seen the graph yourself by now.

I must say that the entire article, headed ‘ESPC Market Review’, is remarkably bearish.

I am also waiting for the breakdown of selected property types, such as Gorgie/Dalry 1-bed, Marchmont/Bruntsfield 2-bed, etc. I haven’t found this in the printed ESPC paper.

The other figures that I cited in my previous posting, the average sale prices since Q1 2005, were previously available in the various quarterly reports on the ESPC website. I made a note of them a few months back, for good measure. They are as follows:

2005 Q1 165,446

2005 Q2 178,789

2005 Q3 176,360

2005 Q4 176,960

2006 Q1 179,215

2006 Q2 200,637

2006 Q3 199,615

2006 Q4 197,207

2007 Q1 207,669

2007 Q2 227,912

2007 Q3 221,986

2007 Q4 215,168

2008 Q1 210,123

2008 Q2 233,840

[ccc]

Cheers Hillbilly. Just have to wait for the detailed figures, hopefully tomorrow.

[roblpm]

So if thats right volume down by exactly a third since last year. And June down by 50%.

So its no wonder the sales figure is not whats expected? Could be skewed by what is selling?

Will just take time ................................... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[roblpm]

Meanwhile over at myhouseprice looks very much like YoY negatives for Edinburgh coming up:

http://www.myhouseprice.com/marketanalysis...lysisCharts.cfm

[Muswell Hillbilly]

So its no wonder the sales figure is not whats expected? Could be skewed by what is selling?

As I have mentioned previously, and probably other Edinburgers have seen, in the early spring property was selling like hot cakes. I think the prices paid then, when most of the property that shifted at all over the quarter was actually sold, must have skewed things.

The prices paid then are just beginning to filter through to the various websites, and it seems that this really was the final rushing-in of fools. For instance, on 28 May the sale of 3 Thirlestane Road completed, for £293K. This flat had been advertised for OO 239, then 303 FP. It’s meant to be a two-bedroom flat, but in reality it’s a one-bedroom flat in which a kitchenette has been crammed into the box room – see the plan:

At what I previously thought was the height of the bubble, about a year ago, genuine two-bed tenement flats with boxrooms were selling for a bit over 300K, so for someone to pay 293K for this glorified one-bedder is just plain mad. Prices like this will inevitably have pushed up the average.

[geed]

I read recently from the Scotsman that ESPC said stock is up 100% and transactions are down 80% compared with last year. So a perfect recipe for a Q2 increase NOT. ESPC Q2 figures are beginning to smell....no surprises then huh.

Are ESPC figures base on asking prices or completed sales.

(Edit) From up my street based on RoS figures...

link to site

or attached graph

Edinburgh_house_prices__up_my_street_3.bmp

Edinburgh_house_prices__up_my_street_3.bmp

Edited July 9, 2008 by geed

[geneer]

so based on Ros figures a 12% fall from peak up to the 1st quarter up to 1st quarter 2008 alone.

I would guess around 15% once Q2's in.

Edited July 12, 2008 by geneer

[SelfDoIt]

I've decided to be more systematic about tracking the properties on my standard ESPC search, as I think it would be more productive to make a note of when things move to FP, how many FP, etc.

My standard search is for 2 bed flats between £150K and £225K in the town center (or nearly).

I am personally interested in 2 bed, with lounge and kitchen/diner, in a traditional tenement within 1 mile of a train station, so the reference properties are meant to be something like what I will consider buying myself... eventually.

Todays stats

Qty Properties: 206

Qty Fixed Price: 119

Number of search pages: 20

Page at which first property at £200K or over appears: 14

Reference properties for tracking (I've started out with lots, as they will diminish over time, I assume anyway)

3/7 Heriothill Terrace, Canonmills, EH7 4DZ Offers Over £155,000

6 Summerhall Square (3F2), Newington, EH9 1QD Offers Over £163,000

18/8 Montague Street, Newington, EH8 9QX Offers Over £169,000

18/2 Gardners Crescent,Fountainbridge, EH3 8DE Offers Over £169,000

6/3 Huntly Street, New Town, EH3 5HB Offers Over £179,000

6 Broughton Road (2F2), Broughton, EH7 4EB Fixed Price £181,000

16 North St Andrew Street, New Town, EH2 1HJ Offers Over £185,000

47/5 Blackfriars Street (2F2), Old Town, EH1 1NB Offers Over £185,000

59 East London Street (3F1), New Town, EH7 4BW Offers Over £185,000

5 Lord Russell Place (2F2), Newington, EH9 1NQ Offers Over £189,000

3/3 Admiral Terrace, Bruntsfield, EH10 4JH Offers Over £195,000

21 Viewforth Terrace, Bruntsfield, EH10 4LJ Offers Over £198,000

16/4 Brougham Street, Tollcross, EH3 9JH Offers Over £198,950

65 Viewforth (1F1), Bruntsfield, EH10 4LQ Offers Over £205,000

21/7 Henderson Row, New Town, EH3 5DH Offers Over £205,000

70b Broughton Street, Broughton, EH1 3SA Fixed Price £208,000 *

69 Broughton Street (3F2), New Town, EH1 3RJ Offers Over £210,000

26 Montpelier Park (3F2), Bruntsfield, EH10 4NJ Offers Over £210,000

32/3 East Preston Street, Newington, EH8 9QD Fixed Price £212,000

25 Eyre Place (1F2), New Town, EH3 5EX Fixed Price £215,000

Silly properties which I'll track just for laughs.

13 Jeffrey Street, Old Town, EH1 1DR Offers Over £175,000

29c Mayfield Gardens, Newington, EH9 2BX Fixed Price £185,000

5/23 Drummond Street, Old Town, EH8 9ET Fixed Price £185,000

14 Parkside Street (GFL), Newington, EH8 9RJ Fixed Price £189,995

160/1 Morningside Road, Morningside, EH10 4PX Fixed Price £205,000 *

13 Jeffrey Street (3F1), Old Town, EH1 1DR Offers Around £205,000 *

114 Canongate (3F2), Old Town, EH8 8DD Fixed Price £207,500 *

1 West Annandale Street, Bellevue, EH7 4JT Fixed Price £210,000

35/5 Cockburn Street, Old Town, EH1 1BP Fixed Price £210,000 *

* All of these were recently offers over in the region of £180K -£189K. Only I can't remember exactly, hence the starting of this list.

[Radge]

Self

Have you got propertybee yet? It'll make your tracking much easier.

[SelfDoIt]

No I don't have propertybee. Thanks for the note I'll look into it.

[SelfDoIt]

Very little change to report. We're still in the stalemate stage as far as I can see. Same number of properties, a couple have shifted to fixed price at about 10% over what their offers over price was.

Feels like the everybody is holding their breath.

[roblpm]

zzzzzzzzzzz

every day i look at the espc

every day its the same

groundhog day!

[geed]

Very little change to report. We're still in the stalemate stage as far as I can see. Same number of properties, a couple have shifted to fixed price at about 10% over what their offers over price was.

Feels like the everybody is holding their breath.

Keep it up, I track a few properties myself but not as extensive as your search