canny man Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 ESPC now proudly boasts 9100 properties for sale in Edinburgh. The highest number I saw in 2007 was mid 6000's So supply has increased by 25% plus while demand is constrained by mortgage availability. I wonder what happens next. www.espc.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
symo Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 Price increase? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canny man Posted May 5, 2008 Author Share Posted May 5, 2008 Spot on - Edinburgh is different, the laws of supply and demand were repealed a while back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Skint Academic Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 ESPC now proudly boasts 9100 properties for sale in Edinburgh. The highest number I saw in 2007 was mid 6000'sSo supply has increased by 25% plus while demand is constrained by mortgage availability. I wonder what happens next. Ooh! Ooh! I know this one! Don't tell me ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doahh Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 I had a quick skip through the ESPC and noticed that there were a lot of them on a fixed price. The 10-15 pages I saw, I would estimate that 40% were fixed price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 All building up nicely then. Is there any chance that the ESPC conglomerate or whatever they call themselves could go bust? Do you think that would get people to drop the price? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 (edited) fixed price does that mean no sealed bids?thought scotland didnt really do fixed prices I will copy my post from the Edinburgh forum: ESPC had a total of 6400 on 15 Mar ESPC had total of 8600 on 22 Apr. ESPC had a total of 8825 on 29 Apr. ESPC had a total of 9100 on 05 May. That is up 275 in the last 4 working days !!! 70 ish PER DAY !!! And yes Scotland don't do fixed prices. Unless you cant sell.... So at your estimate 40% of people cant sell. And this is at the busy time of year when all the action in Edinburgh takes place. When we get to August it is going to be immense. I have said for a long time Edinburgh will show YOY nominal falls in July. Unless they fudge the figures. But I doubt they will. It would catch up with them pretty quickly. Edited May 5, 2008 by ccc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 ESPC now proudly boasts 9100 properties for sale in Edinburgh. The highest number I saw in 2007 was mid 6000'sSo supply has increased by 25% plus while demand is constrained by mortgage availability. It must be the Spring Bounce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PunK BeaR Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 Everyone where i work is still believing Edinburgh is different and Scotland as a whole will be miraculously saved from the house price carnage. The scots are good with money you know Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milo Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 ESPC covers a large area. So for those with a more local interest, the Edinburgh for sales are as follows (excluding lockups etc). 4 Feb – 1560 total / 568 fixed 3 March – 1998 total/ 743 fixed 7 April – 2481 total / 1033 fixed 5 May – 3030 total/ 1432 fixed (47% fixed) That’s by far the highest number I’ve ever seen. Interesting that there’s a glut of rental property. About 1150 are listed for Edinburgh on www.lettingweb.com. 1060 were listed at the end of January. Meanwhile there are hundreds of newbuild, grossly overpriced, 'luxury flats coming onto the market... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLASH_2007 Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 I heard that property in Collinton just hit £1,000,000 for the first time is this incorrect? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 ESPC covers a large area. So for those with a more local interest, the Edinburgh for sales are as follows (excluding lockups etc). 4 Feb – 1560 total / 568 fixed 3 March – 1998 total/ 743 fixed 7 April – 2481 total / 1033 fixed 5 May – 3030 total/ 1432 fixed (47% fixed) That's by far the highest number I've ever seen. Interesting that there's a glut of rental property. About 1150 are listed for Edinburgh on www.lettingweb.com. 1060 were listed at the end of January. Meanwhile there are hundreds of newbuild, grossly overpriced, 'luxury flats coming onto the market... Home.co.uk finds 4,125 properties for sale in Edinburgh city alone: http://www.home.co.uk/search/results.htm?l...s=&radius=7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 ESPC covers a large area. So for those with a more local interest, the Edinburgh for sales are as follows (excluding lockups etc). 4 Feb – 1560 total / 568 fixed 3 March – 1998 total/ 743 fixed 7 April – 2481 total / 1033 fixed 5 May – 3030 total/ 1432 fixed (47% fixed) That’s by far the highest number I’ve ever seen. Interesting that there’s a glut of rental property. About 1150 are listed for Edinburgh on www.lettingweb.com. 1060 were listed at the end of January. Meanwhile there are hundreds of newbuild, grossly overpriced, 'luxury flats coming onto the market... Interesting. So almost half of all people trying to sell a house in Edinburgh right now have been told by theor EA that fixed price is the only way. As for the 'luxury flats' I actually went down Granton to have a look today. Very interesting. I reckon not even a quarter of the total are built now. So either one of the following 3 scenarios will happen: (1) They build them all. MASSIVE oversupply = Prices collapse. (2) They stop building now seeing as the bottom is falling out, leaving a half finished development slap bang in the middle of a huge incomplete building site = Prices collapse. (3) They sell on many of them in some 'public housing' deal and rent them out as council houses = Prices collapse. BTW I did a search on our property.co.uk and 4 of these flats (I imagine 1 bed) have gone for about 94k in the last 6 weeks These are not advertised for anything less than about 130k. So what is going on there ? Mass sell off at any price ? The fact that doesn't even interest me shows what I think will happen in this area. I reckon 1 beds will be going for 50k in a few years time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 Everyone where i work is still believing Edinburgh is different and Scotland as a whole will be miraculously saved from the house price carnage. The scots are good with money you know Same here. A few are finally waking up - but very slowly. I really think Edinburgh will get it bad. (Good for me ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 BTW this is an example of what they are wanting £143k for in Granton. A not very nice area. 1 bed flat. Ground floor: 50k within 5 years, if not 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milo Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 Home.co.uk finds 4,125 properties for sale in Edinburgh city alone:http://www.home.co.uk/search/results.htm?l...s=&radius=7 Search results for all properties within 7 miles of Edinburgh Different geographical coverage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milo Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 This joker's lowest asking price for a 1 bed flat is £350k. I do like the 3d models on the website – but the flat? Put it underground and it could be Austria. Another overpriced flat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 (edited) This joker's lowest asking price for a 1 bed flat is £350k. I do like the 3d models on the website – but the flat?Put it underground and it could be Austria. Another overpriced flat This joker's lowest asking price for a 1 bed flat is £350k. I do like the 3d models on the website – but the flat?Put it underground and it could be Austria. Another overpriced flat The flat loses it`s appeal after about fifteen seconds, it would be like living in the cafe at an art gallery or something. This is the kind of sh*te that people would have been tripping over each other to buy at the height of the boom, but now? I can`t see this stuff shifting now.They will have to do something about all the glass before they move the junkies in. The problem with "discreet and desirable" areas is that they stop being "discreet and desirable" after you build this kind of muck. Can you imagine sitting in your big pad in Ravelston and all you can see is a wall of glass and a bunch of Hollyoaks wannabes gawping at you.Some of these developers are going to lose out big time, they better hope big Gordo has money left for giros. Edited May 5, 2008 by dances with sheeple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 As for the 'luxury flats' I actually went down Granton to have a look today. Very interesting. I reckon not even a quarter of the total are built now. Yep; I think that so far they've only built a tiny fraction of the planned total. Altogether they're supposed to be building at least 16,000 houses on the Forth Riviera. Recently, however, the developers have started to change their minds as they've seen what way the market's headed: they're swerving away from the BTL hutch-ghetto concept and towards lovely family homes (link). If you go to the Scotsman website and search for "waterfront" you'll find all kinds of astonishing fantasies. It'll be interesting to see how it finally turns out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest An Bearin Bui Posted May 5, 2008 Share Posted May 5, 2008 The flat loses it`s appeal after about fifteen seconds, it would be like living in the cafe at an art gallery or something. This is the kind of sh*te that people would have been tripping over each other to buy at the height of the boom, but now? I can`t see this stuff shifting now.They will have to do something about all the glass before they move the junkies in. The problem with "discreet and desirable" areas is that they stop being "discreet and desirable" after you build this kind of muck. Can you imagine sitting in your big pad in Ravelston and all you can see is a wall of glass and a bunch of Hollyoaks wannabes gawping at you.Some of these developers are going to lose out big time, they better hope big Gordo has money left for giros. But it has an address with Ravelston in it... that adds at least 250k to the asking prices, don't you know - for me it's the Roman numerals that really add a touch of class, however. In general the privilege of living in Edinburgh, the only city in the world that has suspended the laws of economics, is sufficient for most residents to happily pay a premium for their homes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted May 6, 2008 Share Posted May 6, 2008 But it has an address with Ravelston in it... that adds at least 250k to the asking prices, don't you know - for me it's the Roman numerals that really add a touch of class, however.In general the privilege of living in Edinburgh, the only city in the world that has suspended the laws of economics, is sufficient for most residents to happily pay a premium for their homes Wonder if ESPC will give away a free flat when they hit the ten thousand mark? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted May 6, 2008 Share Posted May 6, 2008 Yep; I think that so far they've only built a tiny fraction of the planned total. Altogether they're supposed to be building at least 16,000 houses on the Forth Riviera. Recently, however, the developers have started to change their minds as they've seen what way the market's headed: they're swerving away from the BTL hutch-ghetto concept and towards lovely family homes (link). If you go to the Scotsman website and search for "waterfront" you'll find all kinds of astonishing fantasies. It'll be interesting to see how it finally turns out. That is interesting. More houses is better than more flats but still what chance is there of decent infrastructure being put in place as well ? And as for the ESPC if it keeps on going at this pace we will have 10,000 on the list sometime in June. So what happens to all these when they don't sell - and it comes to the 'quiet' time of August onwards.... Carnage !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted May 6, 2008 Share Posted May 6, 2008 That is interesting. More houses is better than more flats but still what chance is there of decent infrastructure being put in place as well ?And as for the ESPC if it keeps on going at this pace we will have 10,000 on the list sometime in June. So what happens to all these when they don't sell - and it comes to the 'quiet' time of August onwards.... Carnage !!! As said elswhere on here it is repos that will start to demolish the market. Too many people in Edinburgh (and elswhere of course) have invested far too much emotion in their "lifestyle", how they appear to other people, how much their house is worth, what postcode they live at etc. to willingly start cutting their prices. Depending on the debt levels, we will soon start to see visible repossesions in a lot of areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CynicAl Posted May 6, 2008 Share Posted May 6, 2008 There is definitely a change of sentiment. A friend of mine is looking at a flat to rent. It's a 2 bedder not far off of Easter Road. It was for sale but the prospective landlord admits that he could not sell it (at the price he was after). As for the fixed prices, basically this means that the bidding has stopped and that these people are hoping to attract 1 buyer, rather than expecting the herds of buyers that there were a few years back. Normally a property goes on 'offers over' and only goes fixed if it is a sticky one, but looking at only the Edinburgh listings on the espc there are 75 properties that are newly on that are also fixed price. Most people up here think that we are going to avoid a crash because we only really stagnated in the last crash, but we did not have the price inflation last time either. I think we are about 4 months behind and excluding Edinburgh we are as overinflated as most of England and Wales. I predict 40% down in reals terms withing 3 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted May 6, 2008 Share Posted May 6, 2008 There is definitely a change of sentiment.A friend of mine is looking at a flat to rent. It's a 2 bedder not far off of Easter Road. It was for sale but the prospective landlord admits that he could not sell it (at the price he was after). As for the fixed prices, basically this means that the bidding has stopped and that these people are hoping to attract 1 buyer, rather than expecting the herds of buyers that there were a few years back. Normally a property goes on 'offers over' and only goes fixed if it is a sticky one, but looking at only the Edinburgh listings on the espc there are 75 properties that are newly on that are also fixed price. Most people up here think that we are going to avoid a crash because we only really stagnated in the last crash, but we did not have the price inflation last time either. I think we are about 4 months behind and excluding Edinburgh we are as overinflated as most of England and Wales. I predict 40% down in reals terms withing 3 years. Why would you exclude Edinburgh ? At the peak last July the average price of a property in Edinburgh was almost 8 times the average salary 229k vs 29k Edinburgh must be up there with London and Northern Ireland when it comes to: Average house price Vs Average salary. Or have I missed something.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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