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House Price Crash Forum


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About FLASH_2007

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  1. I'm not sure how you can say this at all. We were told by project fear there would be an emergency budget which never materialised. We were told interest rates and mortgage rates would rise, they actually fell and will almost certainly stay lower for longer than they would have done if we had voted remain. Obama told us we would be put to the back of the queue but now Trump is in power who is pro Brexit. The stock market is up, House Prices are up (we were told they would drop 18%) and Exports are up as well. You can argue that we haven't technically left yet so some of these predictions may happen in the future but until we do we don't know what will happen. So far it looks like most of what project fear told us was untrue.
  2. It's a strange rule that if an item is financed it can't be repossessed. The debtor could have a Ferrari but only owe £500 against it and the bailiffs can't take it. It should be repossessed the finance company gets get first charge then the remainder is used to pay off the debt.
  3. Plenty parts of Wales where houses are big money. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/67087850 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/50813727 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/59672971
  4. I actually think swapping stamp duty for capital gains tax could be the next prop that the government use to stop prices falling or even push prices up higher in the short term. If someone is buying a house with an 5% deposit they can effectively leverage the amount they were going to spend on stamp duty by 20 times by increasing that deposit. I also think supply would reduce as people wouldn't want to pay the tax. It may also mean people who bought more recently who are probably going to have higher debt and less capital gains will be replaced by first time buyers who are equally leveraged up. I do wonder if it would be negative for the smaller properties people downsize to like two bed bungalows etc as less boomers downsize and keep their big house with their paper capital gains but positive for the lower end of the market and also the top end gets propped up by limited supply and massive stamp duty savings on purchases. Maybe in the long term the when the boomers die then their properties will start to hit the market and then these types of properties start to come down in price.
  5. Provident have had a shortage of collectors due to a major restructuring of going from self employed to employed. I wonder if this is having a short term impact on the figures.
  6. Unfortunately it doesn't work like that you pay more of your payment in interest at the start and less at the end as the balance goes down. The balance doesn't reduce at the same rate throughout the term. At 2% interest your balance would be 153000 year 3. The higher the interest rate the higher the balance will be.
  7. I think I remember reading you were looking at buying abroad. Did you feel that the countries you are looking at are fairly priced and If so is there any reason you have not bought the property now and rented it out with a view to moving in at the later date? Do you always look to keep a cash buffer this high or would you look to use some or all of the money in in the stock market if share prices were to drop?
  8. I suppose in the right circumstances it may make sense. I.e entry level professional with guaranteed wage rises earning say 30k and figure is likely to increase significantly over the next few years buying 300k house. Someone who may want to start a family in next few years may be better off purchasing the 300k house than buying 150k flat and moving after a few years. You would be to an extent protected from interest rate rises by renting in this manner rather that owning. If however they are letting cleaners on 15k a year buy 150k flats then that is another matter.
  9. In these profit share agreements they will either ask for uplift in value of the land and have to pay when planning is granted or a profit share on sale of the properties. In the case of the latter they may impose a clause where if you sell the property within say 5 or 10 years you have to split the profit but if the developer holds off and sells after the 5 or 10 year period has lapsed they don't have to split the profits so market conditions may not be the only factor they have taken into account when they decided to wait. It would be interesting to know what the terms of the deal were.
  10. I have a bit of of experience of buying properties and putting in low offers. I have put in numerous low offers through estate agents but never got anywhere with them. An offer of 10% is a perfectly acceptable starting point but the likelihood is you will need to increase the offer to 187k-193k ish on a 200k property. If you put in a 10% below offer and then walk away without increasing it a few times you might start to be viewed as a time waster. I once put in a low offer on a property through an agent knowing that the vendors wanted a quick sale and my offer was accepted. I paid for a survey and also some solicitors fees and I was gazumped and the property ended up selling for a higher price so this experience has put me off low offers through agents. The only times I have got a good deal on a property is through auction and even then there has usually been something unusual about the property for it to be cheap. For someone such as yourself who is a cash buyer your only chance of a bargain in the price range you are looking for is something unmortgageable such as a flat with a short lease you can extend or an old house that isn't mortgageable due to asbestos or no kitchen or bathroom etc. I recently tried my luck bidding low on a repossession that failed to sell prior to the referendum and put in a low offer the day after the brexit vote. The property ended up selling for the same price it would have done prior to the referendum and the tone of the email had back suggested my offer was deemed an insult. I think I will be waiting a while to see if the prices come down before making an offers again.
  11. As there are a lot of energy companies in the index making little or no profit I think these skew the P/E ratios quite significantly and these companies obviously have some value. I would guess if you remove energy stocks the P/E ratio is probably closer to 16 which would be closer to fair value.
  12. So he was only making an income on average of £248 per month per property. So presumably he was dealing with the bottom end of the market and even then he must have had some serious voids / non payers if his income was that low.
  13. Not sure how you can be working 16 hours a week on less than £3850 per year. On minimum wage 16 hours a week is nearly £5500.
  14. Its interesting to hear an insiders view as most of the information I read on the industry is more from an economics perspective. Are they normally reasonably accurate in their predictions? and how far in advance do they attempt to predict the price? Does the fact that they have projects with a break even point at $75 mean they did not predict prices to go this low or do they tend to take a very long term view on project like 25 years? i.e Will the $75 projects still be there in three year time if the oil price stays around $50, at what point would a loss making project be shut down?
  15. This has always been the correlation however I wonder if this time it is different. Normally as you say if the dollar strengthens crude oil prices will fall but in this case if the ECB starts quantitative easing next week then I expect the dollar index to make new highs (100 might be a nice round number for the dollar index to peak but that's a pure guess) I do wonder if in this case the new stimulus will provide a short term boost to commodity prices including oil.
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