Edinbugh Latest

[roblpm]

Posted this in the main forum but sank without a trace!!

Morningside is one of the most expensive areas in Edinburgh and demand is still high .............. until now??

Meadowspot is in the catchment of good schools and is a pretty nice place if you like new houses.

So detached 5 bed comes on the market I think 6 weeks ago, offers over £525k, then went to fixed price £595k but now dropped to fixed price £569k.

If you are quick you can see they havent updated the schedule yet:

http://www.espc.com/Buying/253855.html

This from land registry for last 2 years:

2007-05-03 109 Meadowspot, Edinburgh, EH10 5UY £560,000

2006-09-08 139 Meadowspot, Edinburgh, EH10 5UY £525,000

2006-08-04 135 Meadowspot, Edinburgh, EH10 5UY £611,117

(US date format btw)

No idea if they are all exactly the same but looks to me like for the first time the prices are not up on last year at least!

Cheers Rob

PS Just have to persuade the missus that renting for another year is a good idea!

And while I am at it........................Property developer bought this: http://www.espc.com/Buying/254989.html for 485k in September

2007-09-06 47 Comiston Drive, Edinburgh, EH10 5QS £485,000

Now on at offers over £595k where it has been for weeks. So will be interesting to see if they make any money on it!

[brownbootcuts]

Interesting post roblpm.

The posts in these area sub forums dont seem to get as much traffic now.

[Scunnered]

The problem is that these houses just aren't expensive enough. The Evening News has an advert for Rettie & Co (in the guise of a news story) today saying that they've sold 17 million-pound-plus houses in the last two months.

Three or four weeks ago there was an all-out assault where the Scotsman/Evening News were carrying at least one story about how houses in Edinburgh were remaining reassuringly expensive, with not the slightest possibility of price drops. They've been pretty quiet for the last few weeks though; maybe the local VIs have run out of money to bung their tame journalists.

Currently I'm feeling resigned to a long slow decline in prices, but there may be some light on the horizon. Last year there was a huge unexpected surge in prices in the first quarter, so if this isn't repeated this year then we may see year-on-year falls (if the ESPC actually decides to reveal their figures, that is). Roll on April.

You're right about these regional forums though. I do feel that I'm posting in a seldom-visited backwater here.

[roblpm]

Guys in the regional sub zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=70001

I posted same in main forum, gt some good comments but day 2 is now on page 3 never to be seen again!! So the choice seems to be post stuff in here and never get any reaction or post in the main forum and wave bye bye!!

I think the regional subforums should be trashed and go back to the "your area" idea??

[Scunnered]

I posted same in main forum, gt some good comments but day 2 is now on page 3 never to be seen again!! So the choice seems to be post stuff in here and never get any reaction or post in the main forum and wave bye bye!!

I think the regional subforums should be trashed and go back to the "your area" idea??

I suppose one of the problems is that the number of members is increasing, so there's a danger of the main board getting swamped. You can see this already, where a new thread can disappear off the end of the page in 20 or 30 minutes at busy times. Presumably the amount of traffic will continue to grow as the housing situation deteriorates, so this'll only get worse. I'm guessing that the moderators are trying to tidy things up in an attempt to deal with this.

Having said that, I agree with you about the regional subforums. We definitely seem to be stuck in a bit of a ghetto here. I see that there's still plenty of action in the main "House prices in your area" subforum, with threads about Devon, Manchester, Cambridge and Huddersfield among other places in the last couple of days, so one wonders why a major city like Edinburgh is being shunted off to this area. We could just try starting Edinburgh threads in the "your area" subforum rather than on the main forum, but maybe they'd just fall off the bottom there as well.

If all else fails we could try complaining to Alex Salmond.

[roblpm]

Ok I am going to stick my neck out and post my next Edinburgh post in the "Your Areas" forum!

I like to life life dangerously!

[Scunnered]

Ok I am going to stick my neck out and post my next Edinburgh post in the "Your Areas" forum!

I like to life life dangerously!

Careful there...

The Evening News does have a distinctly pessimistic piece on house prices today (http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/opinion/...uses.3854723.jp). It's a lot more realistic than the stuff they usually come out with. They quote an average price of £447,020 for 4-bedroom detached houses in Edinburgh. Insane!!!

[roblpm]

Nice find. Check this out, was on at offers over £550k (I think) now fixed price £825k, whats that all about??!!

http://www.espc.com/Buying/255408.html

[roblpm]

Update to my first post in this thread to summarise:

47 Comiston Road bought £485k September, done up by developer and put on for offers over £595k. It needed quite a lot doing to it I think.

now on fixed price at £735k

http://www.espc.com/Buying/254989.html

We looked at an identical house in winter of 2005/06 which went for £450k (although not that well done up)

2006-04-03 67 Comiston Drive, Edinburgh, EH10 5QS £450,000

Which has just been resold for £645k!

2008-01-11 67 Comiston Drive, Edinburgh, EH10 5QS £645,000

So the question is is where will the market price of these houses be in a years time?? Some others also sold at around £650k.

[roblpm]

Morningside seems to have ground to a halt. Nothing coming on, nothing selling.

Luckily Edinburgh is immune to House Price Crashes!

[canny man]

Stuart Saunders, the leading proprty firm has just gone bust!!! yesterday's evening news.

[roblpm]

As usual main board in a frenzy, Scotland regional subforum is zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Does that mean:

a) There is no HPC is Scotland/Edinburgh?

The regional subforum idea is not a good one??

Anyway there is an Edinburgh thread in the "In your area" section in which someone had posted this:

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstori...ouse.3957214.jp

Morningside has just had a load of high end stuff on the ESPC at big prices listed. Interesting to see if any of it sells!

[Scunnered]

The EPSC figures for Q1 2008 have just appeared. There was a 5.3% year-on-year fall in Marchmont (it now costs a mere £260,000 for a 2-bed flat), but rises of various sizes in all the other areas in Edinburgh. Some of the figures look a bit odd. They say that Falkirk rose by 38.9% but Kirkcaldy fell by 23%. Perhaps they're only dealing with small volumes in those areas, so the figures are easily distorted.

There's also a bit of blurb to go with the figures:

Latest figures released today by ESPC reveal the housing market in Edinburgh has continued to cool with annual inflation falling to its lowest level since 1993. A rise of just 1.2% took the average price in the Capital from £207,669 in the first quarter of 2007 to £210,123 during the first three months of 2008.

There was evidence however that the market should be well placed to avoid the downturn in prices projected in England and Wales, with the 6.7% reduction in sales some way below the 40% decreases being reported in many areas south of the border.

Haven't they heard of the ripple effect?

[SelfDoIt]

I've only just found this sub-forum. Keep posting here. We just have to keep it lively.

[roblpm]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

But I will keep trying!!

Interesting to look on the front page of HPC and see the yearly predictions, Scotland at top!!

[Muswell Hillbilly]

The EPSC figures for Q1 2008 have just appeared. There was a 5.3% year-on-year fall in Marchmont (it now costs a mere £260,000 for a 2-bed flat)

Thanks for that. I only spotted yesterday that the figures were out, but I didn’t find the breakdown. I tried to start a new topic on the main forum, and had to ask for posting rights, despite being a member here for over three years. I’ll have to keep an eye on this subforum instead.

Anyway, the most noteworthy thing about the figures is that the Q1 2008 average of £210,123 is 2.3% down on the quarter and 7.8% down on the peak, which was in Q2 2007. Because this peak was so high, at £227,912, unless there is a QoQ rise of 8.5% in Q2 2008, Edinburgh will go YoY negative next quarter.

The latest figure for Marchmont/Bruntsfield, which is the one of most interest to me, is actually a rise from the previous quarter. This doesn’t surprise me, because I have seen many a ‘sold’ sticker going up over the ‘for sale’ boards with remarkable speed recently. It’s still a 5.3% drop on the Q1 2007 peak, though, and I’m sure the only way is down!

If you rummage around in the ESPC ‘Media Room’ you can find the older reports. ESPC don’t want us to see the QoQ figures, so they don’t show them together in a single file, but here they are:

Period / Overall average / Marchmont/Bruntsfield 2-bed flats

2007 Q1 / 207,669 / 274,659

2007 Q2 / 227,912 / 269,953

2007 Q3 / 221,986 / 270,780

2007 Q4 / 215,168 / 252,860

2008 Q1 / 210,123 / 260,078

[SelfDoIt]

Does anyone else think that there are a lot of properties on the market just now? Is this the normal spring bounce or is it something more?

[geed]

So YoY only 1.2% up! That a real fall of 2.8% when compared to a 4.0% RPI figure. I have seen these other statistics but not that one, the papers kept this quiet. Also Home.co.uk survey just reported that Scotland is DOWN 2.9% over 6 months.....I though Scotland was different?

[Granite]

So YoY only 1.2% up! That a real fall of 2.8% when compared to a 4.0% RPI figure. I have seen these other statistics but not that one, the papers kept this quiet. Also Home.co.uk survey just reported that Scotland is DOWN 2.9% over 6 months.....I though Scotland was different?

It is. My colleagues are happily informing me that prices won't go down in Edinburgh because of these incredibly difficult to qualify "differences".

[roblpm]

Glad to see some action in here.

Have to report in Morningside quite a few expensive houses on at record asking prices!!

Will take a while for people to realise that Edinburgh/Scotland has the same economics as everywhere else! (Or maybe it does!!)

[Silverity]

"Anyway, the most noteworthy thing about the figures is that the Q1 2008 average of £210,123 is 2.3% down on the quarter and 7.8% down on the peak, which was in Q2 2007. Because this peak was so high, at £227,912, unless there is a QoQ rise of 8.5% in Q2 2008, Edinburgh will go YoY negative next quarter."

Q2 is traditionally Edinburgh's strongest quarter with an average rise from Q1 of 10% over the last 3 years. So 8.5% is doable but who knows in this cheap mortgage drought? The claim that Edinburgh hasn't had a negative year since the ESPC kept records in the 1970s is oft quoted though this is based on the average price for the whole year and not the YoY. So I am sure Edinburgh has seen negative YoY changes before especially in the early 1990s.

For a negative average year price drop, 2008 prices would have to drop below the 2007 average of £218,000. The average so far is our Q1 number of £210,123.

[Silverity]

Does anyone else think that there are a lot of properties on the market just now? Is this the normal spring bounce or is it something more?

I keep a weekly spreadsheet of ESPC properties in my square mile or so and have done so since late January. The number of properties on ESPC has stayed steady at 10 since mid-March.

This is DOWN from February when 15 properties was more the norm. Also the number of FPs is DOWN from a high of 33% to a now consistent 20%.

I can't speak for this time last year but I was house hunting back then and the numbers of available properties does not look significantly different to back then in Q2 2007. Possibly a bit higher now but we'll see how the numbers develop.

Also note completed sales for Q1 2008 in Edinburgh were 1,606 properties. This is HALF what it was at the peak in Q2 2007 (3,267). So much for people panic selling. It will take a recession to force sellers' hands. Being a financial centre. I would have thought some banking redundacies might force some sales. So far nothing. We have a property famine in Edinburgh, as sellers sit this one out.

Edited April 15, 2008 by Silverity

[Scunnered]

Will take a while for people to realise that Edinburgh/Scotland has the same economics as everywhere else! (Or maybe it does!!)

No! No! It really is different in Edinburgh. Look: it says so here in today's Evening Pish.

So, there is good news for the housing market in general, if not for first-time buyers. The growing demand for rented flats shows there are still large numbers of people looking for properties in the Capital. The thing is that more and more of them can't afford to buy.

Should that trend continue then the booming profits to be had in buy-to-let are sure to keep the Edinburgh property market buoyant.

...

Despite the current lull, it is hard to find any fears about the long-term health of Edinburgh's property market. The house building programme, seen as an essential part of the city's economic growth, will continue regardless.

The current slowdown in the market is likely to be just that, a temporary applying of the brakes. In the meantime, the housebuilders will continue to go full steam ahead.

Looks like it's an excellent time to get into buy-to-let. I've been holding off, but this news of booming profits might be enough to change my mind.

Addendum: Today's Scotsman was saying House prices: Scotland bucks UK trend.

RICS Scotland Director, Graeme Hartley, said: "Scotland is in a unique position with house prices continuing to increase, albeit not at a 'booming' rate.

These guys just won't give up, will they? It's like those Japanese soldiers that they used to find in the jungle 40 years after the end of the war.

Edited April 15, 2008 by Scunnered

[Dosser]

(it now costs a mere £260,000 for a 2-bed flat)

Quite, pay no heed to the 'no crash in Scotland' brigade. Property is silly money, not just expensive, but silly money. Property will not become dirt cheap, it will remain expensive. But to get from silly money to expensive we need to see 30-40 percent falls - a crash.

D

[hitsy]

I've posted plenty of things before.

However- latest one- last week - april 08-

Friend bought a 2 bed new build in the Love Leith development, Off plan in Salamander court. Fixed price 193K with no carpets.

After some haggling he got it for £160K with carpets. Probably about 34K saved. A 17% discount, pretty significant. True story.

Don't know if Love Leith were just trying to boost the books before the end of the financial year, (sell 6 flats around this price will boost turnover by 1 million GBP for 2007)but whatever the reason, there's a smell of desperation about the transaction.

Good for him tho, and shows that fixed prices can be negotiated downwards.