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....and report back!!! It'll save me getting my brother to do it :P

That's my regular route to the pub (I live on Rodney Street, and usually drink in either the St Vincent or Kays) and yes, the number of white boards is most impressive. Dublin Street and Scotland Street are pretty cluttered with them as well.

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I just don't get it either - a 2-bed place near me went for about 280k recently and for the life of me, I can't fathom what kind of buyers they could be. Thankfully it's owner-occupiers rather than some vulgar BTL chavs but when you think about it, who spends 280k on a FLAT to live in? If you've got that kind of money, you'd want a house. A couple who both earn around 40k e.g. in banking and have 40k of a deposit, could afford this place but why would they want to? If you have that kind of money and salary, you'd be aiming a little higher in life than a 2-bed tenement flat. My OH and I could afford to spend this on a property but why bother? These are starter properties, not proper residences where you could raise a family and most of your neighbours would be students or tenants i.e. people who don't really have a long-term stake in the neighbourhood. Also, it's already reached its maximum value and will only stagnate or fall in price for the next ten years so, again, why bother? None of it makes sense.

Edinburgh is just a mystery to me. People I know who have plenty of money are not buying / have not bought in these new developments so who is?

I have some anecdotal evidence that may go towards explaining who is buying these properties. I was brought up in Edinburgh and still have family there. My mother lives in a large 2 bedroom Georgian flat in Newington (the bit near Clerk Street/the Meadows) - according to her the last 2 flats that sold in her block were sold to Londoners moving up to Edinburgh. The going price for a flat in that block is around £300k (this is for one sold earlier this year). It seems that people are starting to wake up to the fact that they are going to get a lot more for their money outside London (£300k would get you maybe a mediocre one bedroom flat in London zone 2, perhaps a 500sq ft conversion in a tatty area like Finsbury Park, or ex-local authority flat in zone 1). In Edinburgh the equivalent money will buy you a huge, solid stone-built beautiful Georgian flat of around 700-800 sq ft a stone's throw from the centre of town in one of the most beautiful cities in the UK. So £300k would like an total bargain to someone up from London. Unfortunately, this London money is pricing out locals like yourself.

My uncle who lives in Portobello sold his 3 bed Victorian terrace house last year for £450k - to an English couple who had been living in London, one of whom had just got a job as a lecturer at Edinburgh University. The house had a number of bids - the English couple bid about £70k more than the next highest bidder. It was a nice house but that is a mad price for a modest house in Portobello which is on the outskirts of the city. The other bidders obviously could not possibly compete with the couple from London.

After living in London for 18 years I myself am planning on returning to Edinburgh at some point as I am in a career that will enable me to work freelance. I will be able to sell my flat and upgrade to a much better quality property than the one I am in at the moment (I live in an ex-local authority flat in central London - it's ok, but I don't want to spend the rest of my life here living amongst English chavs ;) ).With excellent transport communications to London, I think this is a trend that will accelerate as many other London dwellers sell up to escape expensive substandard property, high living costs, crippled transport system, crime, over-crowding etc for a more civilised standard of living.

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Nah that is the sellers !!

And BTW if you need a piece of real evidence that things are on a down turn I advise you to do the following:

Head down Dundas St. Stop at the junction with Cumberland St. Remember this is one of the most prestigious and sought after addresses in Edinburgh.

Look down both sides of the street, left and right off Dundas St. That should cheer you up.

;)

When you're down there, have a look out for houses for sale with the ‘Heritors’ name on the sign (usually with Rettie and/or DJ Alexander on them as well). A quick google search suggest that Heritors is (amongsts other things) a property investment fund run partly by DJ Alexander. Until a few months ago I hadn’t seen a single sign, now you can’t move in the New Town without seeing them. Someone in the EA business calling the top of the market as well perhaps?? Edinburgh not so different to rest of the UK after all?!

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Guest An Bearin Bui
When you're down there, have a look out for houses for sale with the ‘Heritors’ name on the sign (usually with Rettie and/or DJ Alexander on them as well). A quick google search suggest that Heritors is (amongsts other things) a property investment fund run partly by DJ Alexander. Until a few months ago I hadn’t seen a single sign, now you can’t move in the New Town without seeing them. Someone in the EA business calling the top of the market as well perhaps?? Edinburgh not so different to rest of the UK after all?!

How coincidental then that DJ Alexanders' boss was featured in an article in the Scotsman recently claiming that rents in Edinburgh were SOARING, no less!! All based on the fact that his staff had managed to let out a 1-bed in New Town for £825 pcm. The conclusion of the article was the buy-to-let was still a great long-term bet and soaring rents would compensate landlords for any rising costs.

Interesting that his firm is currently trying to offload some properties in that context... priming the market perhaps?? It's funny because it would be illegal to do that with shares - the wonders of the (not very) free (property) market... :D

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How coincidental then that DJ Alexanders' boss was featured in an article in the Scotsman recently claiming that rents in Edinburgh were SOARING, no less!! All based on the fact that his staff had managed to let out a 1-bed in New Town for £825 pcm. The conclusion of the article was the buy-to-let was still a great long-term bet and soaring rents would compensate landlords for any rising costs.

Interesting that his firm is currently trying to offload some properties in that context... priming the market perhaps?? It's funny because it would be illegal to do that with shares - the wonders of the (not very) free (property) market... :D

I think you are spot on. And as per the previous poster this is definitely them calling the top of the market. As I have stated previously in July Edinburgh will have YOY falls for the first time ever. They are clearly doing all they can in their power to get rid of all their properties before this. I have found the records of a few below:

44 Cumberland Street Edinburgh:

Bought by Heritors 2 Ltd for £300,000 on 27 Jan 2005.

Bought from K Butcher.

Now up for sale for offers over £379,000

DJ Alexander

71 Cumberland Street Edinburgh:

Bought by Heritors Ltd for £349,000 on 29 Oct 2004.

Bought from Grant Development Ltd.

Now up for sale for offers over £385,000

DJ Alexanders

19 (1F1 or 2F1) North West Circus Lane Edinburgh

Bought by Heritors Ltd £305,000 on 19 Nov 2004.

Bought from A Milne

Now up for sale for offers over £375,000.

DJ Alexander

Now the interesting thing is that due to the YOY figures that people use prices can be falling for almost a year before the general public are ever aware. This of course leaves a nice little window for those 'in the know' to get out in front of the crowd. What I find very interesting is the prices these properties are up for.Considering these are in the most prestigious area of Edinburgh they don't seem to be planning to make a huge profit. A very clear sign they are just trying to get out as quick as possible. ESPC figures out on July 8ish...

Edinburgh is crashing. Those in the know are telling us, but you have to dig to work it out. Excellent. ;)

Edited by ccc
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That’s very interesting this talk of DJ Alexander and ‘Heritors’. You might be interested in this then.

Some friends of mine were/are currently renting a very nice flat through DJ Alexander in the west end of Glasgow. I was sure he said the flat was owned by a company called Heritage 2, which I assume is the same company as discussed here and I’ve just picked the name up wrong. Anyway, a month or so ago, he got a call from the rental agency and was told that ‘the company had decided to sell all their properties and their flat would be put on the market’, oh and also ‘we’re putting your rent up 10%’.

Needless to say, he wasn’t too happy. So they decided to move out into a smaller place to cut back on costs so they could save more money. I spoke to him last week and he said that the flat had been on the market over two weeks but there had been no viewings. I was amazed at the number of DJ Alexander ‘For Sale’ signs that were up around the other streets beside his flat.

Surely ‘Heritors’ can’t be doing themselves any favours by putting them all on at once!

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My uncle who lives in Portobello sold his 3 bed Victorian terrace house last year for £450k - to an English couple who had been living in London, one of whom had just got a job as a lecturer at Edinburgh University. The house had a number of bids - the English couple bid about £70k more than the next highest bidder. It was a nice house but that is a mad price for a modest house in Portobello which is on the outskirts of the city. The other bidders obviously could not possibly compete with the couple from London.

That really is astounding. A few years ago the only hope most people had of getting hold of that kind of money was by winning the lottery. I hope your uncle's done something sensible with it (as opposed to, say, deciding that this is the perfect time to get into buy-to-let in a big way).

I've had a suspicion for a while that one of the contributory factors to the unprecedented boom in Scotland is that these days people don't feel so tied to a single area - they're quite happy to move to the other end of the country and abandon their family and friends if they feel that they can get a better job or a better house or whatever (presumably partly because it's easier to keep in touch because of email ,mobile phones, cheap flights and so on) . One does wonder where it'll all end though. If the trend to flee London for places like Edinburgh continues then it'll be completely unaffordable for the "locals" to continue to live here. Presumably we'll eventually end up with much smaller discrepancies in house prices over the country, but that could take a very long time to happen. Or maybe we'll have a massive crash and that'll sort everything out for a while.

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That’s very interesting this talk of DJ Alexander and ‘Heritors’. You might be interested in this then.

Some friends of mine were/are currently renting a very nice flat through DJ Alexander in the west end of Glasgow. I was sure he said the flat was owned by a company called Heritage 2, which I assume is the same company as discussed here and I’ve just picked the name up wrong. Anyway, a month or so ago, he got a call from the rental agency and was told that ‘the company had decided to sell all their properties and their flat would be put on the market’, oh and also ‘we’re putting your rent up 10%’.

Needless to say, he wasn’t too happy. So they decided to move out into a smaller place to cut back on costs so they could save more money. I spoke to him last week and he said that the flat had been on the market over two weeks but there had been no viewings. I was amazed at the number of DJ Alexander ‘For Sale’ signs that were up around the other streets beside his flat.

Surely ‘Heritors’ can’t be doing themselves any favours by putting them all on at once!

Interesting. Sinking ship comes to mind.....

Have a look on here and see if you can find it. I will have a look at try to find out how much they paid for it. ;)

DJ Alexander

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Here you are:

http://www.djalexander.co.uk/property-detail/?id=20

Flat 1/1, with the big corner bay window.

Cheers for that. Bought by Heritors II on 14 May 2004 for £211,000.

Now 4 years later selling for offers over £230,000.......

MMM, capital profit seems to be pretty slim on all these Heritors properties. They definitely seem to be selling them ASAP rather than trying to get the most money for them. Let's keep on watching what these guys do, rather than listening to what they are saying..... ;)

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ccc

for the greater good can you give an insight in to the ESPC figures and how you know it will be YoY -ve in July. Do you have a spreadsheet of the historical ones or any other useful info??

I have uploaded below, I think !!

These figures are all available from the ESPC site, bottom of this page:

ESPC Stats

July's figures will be compared to last July's. That was at the peak. Unless the sales in these 3 months surpass a year ago (And even with the odd idiot about who fails to see what is happening I don't think this is possible) then the YOY figure will be negative.

228

222

215

210

I am wondering if they will try and work around this. Maybe there will be a small rise from Quarter to quarter and they will give that figure instead ? I cant see them just lying. Well maybe they would but they must know the land registry figures will be out a few months later. Any massive difference would likely be investigated ( Or you would hope so !! )

I did read today in a special 'Property pull out' in the Scotland on Sunday the guy who releases these figures. (David Marshall ESPC)He was saying that he expects growth of about 1-2% over the year !?? Now I cant imagine how he can think this considering the huge number of fixed price properties in Edinburgh just now and the trouble people are having selling ? Maybe it is the party line and come July they will try to put it down to some 'one off' scenario. Fuel crisis maybe ?

If you have a look at my graph you can see the 3 circles. These are the quiet points in the year (Christmas) where sales slow down a lot. However you can see the last 2 years even though sales have dropped sharply the amount people were getting for their property was actually increasing. So less sales but more money. In the last quarter this changed. There was the usual drop in sales numbers (To be expected) but the average amount people were getting was ALSO FALLING. That is a huge change IMO. It signals people not willing to 'wait it out' till the Spring to get 'The right price'.

Anyway enjoy !!

Damn it wont let me upload a spreadsheet ? Any idea why ? Says I don't have permission for that type of file. It is not a huge size or anything ?

Edited by ccc
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Cheers for that. Bought by Heritors II on 14 May 2004 for £211,000.

Now 4 years later selling for offers over £230,000.......

MMM, capital profit seems to be pretty slim on all these Heritors properties. They definitely seem to be selling them ASAP rather than trying to get the most money for them. Let's keep on watching what these guys do, rather than listening to what they are saying..... ;)

You might want to check my maths here but I make that an 8.3% rise in value over the 4 years (assuming they sell it for £230000), so about 2.1% a year. That's not a great return by any standard.

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You might want to check my maths here but I make that an 8.3% rise in value over the 4 years (assuming they sell it for £230000), so about 2.1% a year. That's not a great return by any standard.

Not a great return as you say. They clearly don't think it is worth keeping them, so why should any small investor..... :o

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ccc

thanks for that

xls file would be even better! then i can blow it up and put it on my wall with a big extrapolation!!

then again i could be not so lazy and type in the figures myself now you have done the hard work

thanks

Rob

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ccc

thanks for that

xls file would be even better! then i can blow it up and put it on my wall with a big extrapolation!!

then again i could be not so lazy and type in the figures myself now you have done the hard work

thanks

Rob

Doesn't take too long trust me !!! You can see some real clear trends in yearly sales/prices. Looks like we have turned a corner. Hopefully anyway !!

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Guest An Bearin Bui
Doesn't take too long trust me !!! You can see some real clear trends in yearly sales/prices. Looks like we have turned a corner. Hopefully anyway !!

It's very interesting to get these figures because you can bet that DJ Alexanders and any other company running property investment funds like Heritors have figures like this at their disposal and are very much aware of the emerging trend in Edinburgh. They would be tracking the market like any professional fund so they are clearly getting the early indicators (as you're providing for us, ccc) and acting on them.

What's offensive to me is that the Scottish media is colluding with the professional market fixers like DJs to keep sentiment / confidence steady to allow professional investors to exit the market. This would be totally illegal (as far as I know) in the context of the stockmarket.

The property market stinks: it is so obvious that it is a fixed market run by a cartel who pay off the media to preserve sentiment among the average house-buyer so they can time their exits. It's worse that this happens with property because at least with stock, it's mainly only other professional investors (unfortunately some of which will be pension funds) that are affected whereas with housing anyone who is just looking to buy a home for utility rather than investment purposes will be affected and could be left with lifelong debt problems as a result. All because they wanted a home for their family (and never found housepricecrash.co.uk!). This is what puts me off property buying in general - it's a necessary evil in some ways but sometimes I think I could happily rent for the rest of my life rather than engage in a corrupt, controlled market run by a group of insiders. :angry:

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It's very interesting to get these figures because you can bet that DJ Alexanders and any other company running property investment funds like Heritors have figures like this at their disposal and are very much aware of the emerging trend in Edinburgh. They would be tracking the market like any professional fund so they are clearly getting the early indicators (as you're providing for us, ccc) and acting on them.

What's offensive to me is that the Scottish media is colluding with the professional market fixers like DJs to keep sentiment / confidence steady to allow professional investors to exit the market. This would be totally illegal (as far as I know) in the context of the stockmarket.

The property market stinks: it is so obvious that it is a fixed market run by a cartel who pay off the media to preserve sentiment among the average house-buyer so they can time their exits. It's worse that this happens with property because at least with stock, it's mainly only other professional investors (unfortunately some of which will be pension funds) that are affected whereas with housing anyone who is just looking to buy a home for utility rather than investment purposes will be affected and could be left with lifelong debt problems as a result. All because they wanted a home for their family (and never found housepricecrash.co.uk!). This is what puts me off property buying in general - it's a necessary evil in some ways but sometimes I think I could happily rent for the rest of my life rather than engage in a corrupt, controlled market run by a group of insiders. :angry:

I agree. That is clearly what is happening. It is quite shocking but at least we have the sense to see through it. As you say though they are encouraging people to still invest in property. These people will get stung big style. While I have little sympathy because they should seriously investigate what they are doing before diving in (Like we are), I do feel a little sorry because the Scottish media are pretty much brainwashing the general population.

Very sad state of affairs.

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I like the excel graph of the ESPC figures. I'm not totally convinced about the YOY fall thing. It all depends on the Q2 figures which in past years have seen a huge jump over Q1. While I think it would be great to have YOY falls, I'll wait to cheer until I've seen the Q2 results. I think it is too close to call just yet.

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I think the image should be uploaded below now ?

Good work ccc. I believe ESPC's recent Q1 08 report claimed that property rose on average by 1.2% YoY (Q1 07 to Q1 08), in effect a REAL fall against even the fiddled CPI never mind RPI.

I make it at 0.96% ( £208K to £210K), seasonal foo foo factor applied perhaps?

To stop the YoY figure going negative, Q2 08 figures would have to increase by 8.57% on the quarter (Q1 08 figure of £210K increase to Q2 07 figure of £228K), and then this would only produce a 0% flat YoY figure, in effect a real fall of over 4.0% against RPI.

My question is this; With the amount of properties going from o/o to f/p, and the associated 20%+ increase in sticker price when doing this, would this not artificially increase the asking prices. i.e... o/o £300K moves to a f/p of £360k???

What are ESPC figures based on, asking or sold prices?

Edited by geed
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That really is astounding. A few years ago the only hope most people had of getting hold of that kind of money was by winning the lottery. I hope your uncle's done something sensible with it (as opposed to, say, deciding that this is the perfect time to get into buy-to-let in a big way).

He used the money to buy himself a 2 bed flat nearer the centre and he also used some of it towards a big deposit on another 2 bed flat for his 22 year old daughter (who otherwise would never have been able to afford to get on the property ladder). Thus all this 'London money' indirectly went towards inflating prices of the inner Edinburgh market for flats.

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Good work ccc. I believe ESPC's recent Q1 08 report claimed that property rose on average by 1.2% YoY (Q1 07 to Q1 08), in effect a REAL fall against even the fiddled CPI never mind RPI.

I make it at 0.96% ( £208K to £210K), seasonal foo foo factor applied perhaps?

To stop the YoY figure going negative, Q2 08 figures would have to increase by 8.57% on the quarter (Q1 08 figure of £210K increase to Q2 07 figure of £228K), and then this would only produce a 0% flat YoY figure, in effect a real fall of over 4.0% against RPI.

My question is this; With the amount of properties going from o/o to f/p, and the associated 20%+ increase in sticker price when doing this, would this not artificially increase the asking prices. i.e... o/o £300K moves to a f/p of £360k???

What are ESPC figures based on, asking or sold prices?

As far as I know they are based on sold prices. If not then we would have seen a rise over the past few quarters as you describe. Based on this I can see nothing other than a pretty hefty YOY fall.

I mean, this time last year was right in the middle of "Prices will always go up" , "The economy is great" etc.... People did not even have any idea that a fall in prices here could happen. House price crash, World economy in a mess, high inflation, food shortages, banks going bust - this was not even a possibility for most people.

Now it is completely different. Now at least 50% of houses up for sale are at fixed price. I imagine most people know a friend or a relative who is having trouble selling their home.

Even though Q2 usually shows a huge spike, and I am sure there will be a rise - I can see nothing other than a fall in the YOY figures. Anything else I will take as fiddled figures. But I dont think even the ESPC would do that. The Scottish land registry figures would surely show up the glaring lies ?

I think they are going to advertise the Quarter on Quarter figure as this will probably show a small increase. They will conveniently forget abuot the YOY figure they have used every quarter for the past decades.. If that happens I am contacting the press complaints commision. :o

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