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Everything posted by Silverity

  1. Very quiet over here in Corstorphine but then again it's winter. I have tracked the bungalows around here for a year now on my spreadsheet and it has basically ground to a halt - same list of properties for months now. There is a nice bungalow nearby which has sat on OO340K for 5 months now. That would have gone in 2 weeks 18 months ago! They are clearly not budging and are prepared it seems to sit it out. 340K was the typical OO price back at the peak. Things should begin to pick up in Q2 but nothing like Q2 of 2007!
  2. Oops my mistake these are the new monthly figures that the ESPC are giving out and not the quarterlies. Ignore the 14% drop figure!
  3. 6.5% YoY fall compares well with the 10% national fall YoY recorded by Nationwide and Halifax. But the one figure not mentioned is the drop from Q2 2008 to Q3 2008 which comes out at 14%! Gentlemen, you have your big drop and it only took one quarter. Are you going to buy or be greedy and hang on for more? I still await the ESPC's quarterly breakdown which could show 20% down for some flats since Q2... Also still not sure about this first ever YoY drop since 1971, I thought that 37 year record was based on difference between average *annual* prices and not quarterly prices.
  4. I have been tracking properties in my part of corstorphine since January now (mainly bungalows within a square mile). I tend to see about 10 properties on the go at any time give or take a few. I noticed this week all but one are now fixed price which is unusual - it has tended to be half or less on average. Two properties I thought had gone are also back on the market at reduced fixed prices. What is happening? I suspect people know the market goes into the doldrums every Q3+Q4 and want out quickly. I also suspect going by renewed credit crunch headlines that some buyers have pulled out for lack of mortgage availability. As an aside, I compute the average of all OO and FP prices - not as good as actual prices but its trend should roughly resemble the actual trend since agents suggest the prices and they know what properties are currently selling for. Since January the average has fluctuated in a 280K to 350K range. The 280K low was hit in late Feb but then rallied to the 350K high in late May which is consistent with our normal Q2 bounce. It is currently at 336K.
  5. Well, 2.6% up YoY. The Q2 leap of 11% was in keeping with previous Q2s but in this climate I personally was only expecting half that. Onto Q3 which looks like a down quarter in Edinburgh. The last 3 Q3s have all been down by a few % so this Q3 should not be any different which points to a possible 0% or slight negative YoY.
  6. The detailed Q2 report can be found at this link.
  7. Q2 figures now on ESPC, all areas UP YoY, Edinburgh up 2.6% , highest East Fife up 8.4%. Average edinburgh house price in Q2 was £233,840. I now step aside to let the conspiracy theories rage!
  8. This news is not on the website yet - presumably it will appear by tomorrow? 11.3%? Q2 is always the busiest quarter and 11% is about the average over the last five years but I am surprised it has managed to sustain that level! I await the official website pronouncement.
  9. Probably one decade - i.e. since the property market finally bottomed out in the mid-1990s.
  10. Thanks for feedback. It is an existing 20-30 year old conversion we wish to repartition into two equal rooms (currently big room and bathroom). Regulaitons now require it is insulated. The worst regulation that adds to the cost is because we want to convert from 1 to 2 bedrooms, we have to widen the staircase by 9 inches! That adds thousands for a start... I can see a housing downturn making people just extend their existing house so it could add to the trade business but I suspect that would be more than offset by recessionary forces. The only way to really know is how trade fared during the 1990s house crash + recession.
  11. Up here in Edinburgh, it was always a favoured option to extend or modify the house rather than face the cost of moving and taking on the heated up market (at that time). So I have this medium sized job up in the loft requiring joiners, etc. With the current downturn should I put off the job expecting these guys to start cutting their prices as the customers disappear? Thanks for any advice, Silverity.
  12. 3 last Q2s were about 10%, perhaps 5% this time?
  13. Hmmm, ESPC has top of £228K in Q2 2007 down to £210K in Q1 2008 for an 8% drop. I think the ESPC numbers are more correlated to the time of purchase and are hence more accurate?
  14. I don't think the ESPC will hide anything. Their own quarterly figures show an 8% drop from a Q2 2007 peak to Q1 2008. I think they will be more concerned about how Edinburgh compares to UK trends.
  15. You must be referring to the difference between annual and not YoY quarterly prices - that indeed show no negatives for 30 odd years. Interesting to see how the difference between 2007 and 2008 average will pan out to threaten that record. Regarding high number of properties, sales volume in Q1 2008 was half what is was in Q1 2007! Let's see if your observations are confirmed with higher volume in Q2. I would prefer that ESPC published monthly, no reason to keep us waiting 3 months! A bear market for stocks is defined as a 20% drop, could be a decent starting point for a property bear market.
  16. YoY first time ever? How do you figure that? I am pretty sure we had negative YoY in the early 1990s. Unless Q2 puts in its usual 10% rise, Edinburgh will most likely reflect the trend in England report by Halifax/Nationwide with a 1% to 2% drop YoY. However, since Q3 and Q4 tend to be poor quarters, we can expect that 2% to increase into next year but that is to be expected. I am still tracking bungalow land in my square mile of corstorphine. Number of properties offered per week was fairly consistent at 10 with 20% at FP since beginning of march. But in the last three weeks the number of FPs has doubled to 40% though the average cost of OO and FP has gone UP. Why is this happening? Not panic selling as mooted by some (average price would be going down) but estate agents know this is the busy season and they will be "pushing" clients to sell before the market seasonally cools and commissions with it. What is the definition of a crash?
  17. Interesting, my little area I have watched since January was pretty consistent for a month at 10 properties each week with 2 at fixed price and 1 or 2 new properties coming on. That has now dropped to 9 properties but 4 fixed prices and no new properties. I would expect to see the number of properties increasing into spring but it is flat if not dropping. The rise of FPs suggests some sellers have gone in too optimistically while the flat numbers suggests other sellers have decided just to sit this one out and wait and see. The average ask/fixed price is also increasing after it dipped in early March from £282K to £334K. Hmmm!
  18. I keep a weekly spreadsheet of ESPC properties in my square mile or so and have done so since late January. The number of properties on ESPC has stayed steady at 10 since mid-March. This is DOWN from February when 15 properties was more the norm. Also the number of FPs is DOWN from a high of 33% to a now consistent 20%. I can't speak for this time last year but I was house hunting back then and the numbers of available properties does not look significantly different to back then in Q2 2007. Possibly a bit higher now but we'll see how the numbers develop. Also note completed sales for Q1 2008 in Edinburgh were 1,606 properties. This is HALF what it was at the peak in Q2 2007 (3,267). So much for people panic selling. It will take a recession to force sellers' hands. Being a financial centre. I would have thought some banking redundacies might force some sales. So far nothing. We have a property famine in Edinburgh, as sellers sit this one out.
  19. "Anyway, the most noteworthy thing about the figures is that the Q1 2008 average of £210,123 is 2.3% down on the quarter and 7.8% down on the peak, which was in Q2 2007. Because this peak was so high, at £227,912, unless there is a QoQ rise of 8.5% in Q2 2008, Edinburgh will go YoY negative next quarter." Q2 is traditionally Edinburgh's strongest quarter with an average rise from Q1 of 10% over the last 3 years. So 8.5% is doable but who knows in this cheap mortgage drought? The claim that Edinburgh hasn't had a negative year since the ESPC kept records in the 1970s is oft quoted though this is based on the average price for the whole year and not the YoY. So I am sure Edinburgh has seen negative YoY changes before especially in the early 1990s. For a negative average year price drop, 2008 prices would have to drop below the 2007 average of £218,000. The average so far is our Q1 number of £210,123.
  20. One ounce coins and bars regularly turn up on ebay. Mark up is bigger than gold I believe. I saw a Pamp Suisse 10 ounce bar last month on eBay but it was in America which implies high postage, insurance and customs.
  21. You could try Baird & Co who buy and sell gold coins. Go to www.goldline.co.uk You won't pay ebay/paypal fees but the spread is about 10% typically on the buy-sell. Also, you have to pay for postage to Baird in London.
  22. Anyone know if there is a British stockbroker who does traded options for gold/silver and/or mining stocks? Thanks!
  23. And what was Lloyd's take on this drop? "We've seen indications of a slight drop in Edinburgh this quarter but that happens and the next quarter it could go up again due to the fluctuations of the market. We would not read that as an indication that things are about to slow down." Moreover, I'll go with ESPC who are closer to the Edinburgh market than Lloyds. I don't doubt prices will fall to some degree but don't plan your life based on a crash - it may not happen. And I don't doubt either that BTL properties (i.e. flats) will suffer most but don't lump other properties in that class of accommodation.
  24. Where do you get 5.6%? I make the average Edinburgh price in Q3 as £221,986 and Q2 as £227,191 which is about a 2.7% drop. That's flat enough for me! If you look at these periods when Edinburgh house prices drift, you get small to zero drops before the market takes off again. So now is a good time to buy.
  25. None of the houses I saw were 450K, more oo 300k or more. Edinburgh does have its quiet periods. If you graph out the ESPC quarterly stats since 2004 you will note that Edinburgh tends to go up for no more than two quarters (usually Q2), flatlines for two or three and then takes off again. We had two up quarters in Q1 and Q2 so looks like one of those flat periods again ...
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