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Silverity

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About Silverity

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  1. Very quiet over here in Corstorphine but then again it's winter. I have tracked the bungalows around here for a year now on my spreadsheet and it has basically ground to a halt - same list of properties for months now. There is a nice bungalow nearby which has sat on OO340K for 5 months now. That would have gone in 2 weeks 18 months ago! They are clearly not budging and are prepared it seems to sit it out. 340K was the typical OO price back at the peak. Things should begin to pick up in Q2 but nothing like Q2 of 2007!
  2. Oops my mistake these are the new monthly figures that the ESPC are giving out and not the quarterlies. Ignore the 14% drop figure!
  3. 6.5% YoY fall compares well with the 10% national fall YoY recorded by Nationwide and Halifax. But the one figure not mentioned is the drop from Q2 2008 to Q3 2008 which comes out at 14%! Gentlemen, you have your big drop and it only took one quarter. Are you going to buy or be greedy and hang on for more? I still await the ESPC's quarterly breakdown which could show 20% down for some flats since Q2... Also still not sure about this first ever YoY drop since 1971, I thought that 37 year record was based on difference between average *annual* prices and not quarterly prices.
  4. I have been tracking properties in my part of corstorphine since January now (mainly bungalows within a square mile). I tend to see about 10 properties on the go at any time give or take a few. I noticed this week all but one are now fixed price which is unusual - it has tended to be half or less on average. Two properties I thought had gone are also back on the market at reduced fixed prices. What is happening? I suspect people know the market goes into the doldrums every Q3+Q4 and want out quickly. I also suspect going by renewed credit crunch headlines that some buyers have pulled out for lack of mortgage availability. As an aside, I compute the average of all OO and FP prices - not as good as actual prices but its trend should roughly resemble the actual trend since agents suggest the prices and they know what properties are currently selling for. Since January the average has fluctuated in a 280K to 350K range. The 280K low was hit in late Feb but then rallied to the 350K high in late May which is consistent with our normal Q2 bounce. It is currently at 336K.
  5. Well, 2.6% up YoY. The Q2 leap of 11% was in keeping with previous Q2s but in this climate I personally was only expecting half that. Onto Q3 which looks like a down quarter in Edinburgh. The last 3 Q3s have all been down by a few % so this Q3 should not be any different which points to a possible 0% or slight negative YoY.
  6. The detailed Q2 report can be found at this link.
  7. Q2 figures now on ESPC, all areas UP YoY, Edinburgh up 2.6% , highest East Fife up 8.4%. Average edinburgh house price in Q2 was £233,840. I now step aside to let the conspiracy theories rage!
  8. This news is not on the website yet - presumably it will appear by tomorrow? 11.3%? Q2 is always the busiest quarter and 11% is about the average over the last five years but I am surprised it has managed to sustain that level! I await the official website pronouncement.
  9. Probably one decade - i.e. since the property market finally bottomed out in the mid-1990s.
  10. Thanks for feedback. It is an existing 20-30 year old conversion we wish to repartition into two equal rooms (currently big room and bathroom). Regulaitons now require it is insulated. The worst regulation that adds to the cost is because we want to convert from 1 to 2 bedrooms, we have to widen the staircase by 9 inches! That adds thousands for a start... I can see a housing downturn making people just extend their existing house so it could add to the trade business but I suspect that would be more than offset by recessionary forces. The only way to really know is how trade fared during the 1990s house crash + recession.
  11. Up here in Edinburgh, it was always a favoured option to extend or modify the house rather than face the cost of moving and taking on the heated up market (at that time). So I have this medium sized job up in the loft requiring joiners, etc. With the current downturn should I put off the job expecting these guys to start cutting their prices as the customers disappear? Thanks for any advice, Silverity.
  12. 3 last Q2s were about 10%, perhaps 5% this time?
  13. Hmmm, ESPC has top of £228K in Q2 2007 down to £210K in Q1 2008 for an 8% drop. I think the ESPC numbers are more correlated to the time of purchase and are hence more accurate?
  14. I don't think the ESPC will hide anything. Their own quarterly figures show an 8% drop from a Q2 2007 peak to Q1 2008. I think they will be more concerned about how Edinburgh compares to UK trends.
  15. You must be referring to the difference between annual and not YoY quarterly prices - that indeed show no negatives for 30 odd years. Interesting to see how the difference between 2007 and 2008 average will pan out to threaten that record. Regarding high number of properties, sales volume in Q1 2008 was half what is was in Q1 2007! Let's see if your observations are confirmed with higher volume in Q2. I would prefer that ESPC published monthly, no reason to keep us waiting 3 months! A bear market for stocks is defined as a 20% drop, could be a decent starting point for a property bear market.
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