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I have some anecdotal evidence that may go towards explaining who is buying these properties. I was brought up in Edinburgh and still have family there. My mother lives in a large 2 bedroom Georgian flat in Newington (the bit near Clerk Street/the Meadows) - according to her the last 2 flats that sold in her block were sold to Londoners moving up to Edinburgh. The going price for a flat in that block is around £300k (this is for one sold earlier this year). It seems that people are starting to wake up to the fact that they are going to get a lot more for their money outside London (£300k would get you maybe a mediocre one bedroom flat in London zone 2, perhaps a 500sq ft conversion in a tatty area like Finsbury Park, or ex-local authority flat in zone 1). In Edinburgh the equivalent money will buy you a huge, solid stone-built beautiful Georgian flat of around 700-800 sq ft a stone's throw from the centre of town in one of the most beautiful cities in the UK. So £300k would like an total bargain to someone up from London. Unfortunately, this London money is pricing out locals like yourself.

My uncle who lives in Portobello sold his 3 bed Victorian terrace house last year for £450k - to an English couple who had been living in London, one of whom had just got a job as a lecturer at Edinburgh University. The house had a number of bids - the English couple bid about £70k more than the next highest bidder. It was a nice house but that is a mad price for a modest house in Portobello which is on the outskirts of the city. The other bidders obviously could not possibly compete with the couple from London.

After living in London for 18 years I myself am planning on returning to Edinburgh at some point as I am in a career that will enable me to work freelance. I will be able to sell my flat and upgrade to a much better quality property than the one I am in at the moment (I live in an ex-local authority flat in central London - it's ok, but I don't want to spend the rest of my life here living amongst English chavs ;) ).With excellent transport communications to London, I think this is a trend that will accelerate as many other London dwellers sell up to escape expensive substandard property, high living costs, crippled transport system, crime, over-crowding etc for a more civilised standard of living.

I’m not sure this is a new phenomenon though. London has always been more expensive and therefore its always been possible for people to sell a 2 bed place down there and buy a 5 bed place up here, irrespective of what house prices are in absolute terms.

With regards to the Heritors sell off, I do wonder whether its actually the other way round and investors pulling their money out of the fund is forcing Heritors to sell up in order to pay them their money back. Either way though, it indicates lack of confidence in property as an investment.

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I’m not sure this is a new phenomenon though. London has always been more expensive and therefore its always been possible for people to sell a 2 bed place down there and buy a 5 bed place up here, irrespective of what house prices are in absolute terms.

With regards to the Heritors sell off, I do wonder whether its actually the other way round and investors pulling their money out of the fund is forcing Heritors to sell up in order to pay them their money back. Either way though, it indicates lack of confidence in property as an investment.

Good point. People have always doen the move from 'down south' to Edinburgh, adn let's not foget vice versa. The question is will this chnage by any huge amount either way ? Or just keep on going as it always has ?

As for Heritors who knows. It depends how they are set up. Is this a fund for 'property investors' or is this just a vehicle for DJ Alexander to buy loads of properties under a different company name ? As you say either way ot shows the 'big boys' have little confidence in Edinburgh. That lot jumping ship is a very good sign. :lol:

A quick check of companies house shows up a few interesting things. Heritors has 5 registered companies. 3 are based in the Virgin Islands. And one of the Scottish registered ones is headed by DJ Alexander himself. ;)

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Guest An Bearin Bui
As for Heritors who knows. It depends how they are set up. Is this a fund for 'property investors' or is this just a vehicle for DJ Alexander to buy loads of properties under a different company name ? As you say either way ot shows the 'big boys' have little confidence in Edinburgh. That lot jumping ship is a very good sign. :lol:

A quick check of companies house shows up a few interesting things. Heritors has 5 registered companies. 3 are based in the Virgin Islands. And one of the Scottish registered ones is headed by DJ Alexander himself. ;)

He's at it again! Here's another article from DJ Alexander priming the buy-to-let market:

Property can still work for you

I contributed the comment below the article:

So the advice from DJ Alexanders is not to sell under any circumstances: why then is Heritors, the property investment fund run by DJ Alexander, selling up much of its prime property in Glasgow's West End and in Edinburgh's New Town? I've noticed quite a few of the properties are priced to sell also. Perhaps Mr Alexander is keen to exit the market? I wonder why...

My investment advice: watch what people do with their own money and not what they advise you to do with yours.

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He's at it again! Here's another article from DJ Alexander priming the buy-to-let market:

Property can still work for you

I contributed the comment below the article:

Good find. So there we have it. One of the big boys is jumping ship whilst telling people the following:

"DON'T SELL Once the recovery comes, many rental properties will again start to show a rate of capital growth well beyond inflation (and by that I mean "real inflation", not the government's dubious figures) so selling now is likely to be a false economy"

As you say watching what these people DO is far more useful than listening to what they SAY.

It is on in Edinburgh. Big style. And only us and a small number of dodgy estate agents/Developers really know.....

So how can we take advantage. Other than just waiting till prices fall and snapping up a bargain ? I suppose that was the plan all along. All I want after all is a decent place to call my own for a reasonable amount. I think I will just happily wait ont he sidelines until the time is right. ;)

Excellent.

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Got an e-mail from ESPC as a result of my standard automatic search. 22 new properties on this week!!!!

That brings the total that meet my criteria to 154. This is the highest ever and still going up. Isn't anything selling? ;) Shock! Surprise!

ESPC had a total of 6400 on 15 Mar

ESPC had total of 8600 on 22 Apr.

ESPC has a total of 8825 today on 29 Apr.

Nah, Edinburgh is fine. It is just everyone is trying to sell their house and nobody is buying. No problem there. 225 extra properties for sale in 5 working days. That is 55 on EVERY SINGLE DAY !! :o

Can you imagine what is going to happen when the 'quiet' time comes from August onwards... :o

Edited by ccc
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I’ve seen a price drop in prime Edinburgh! This gaff –

1 Greenhill Terrace

– has been on for 865 FP since 21 February, and now it’s dropped to 840 FP – a whopping 2.9% reduction! I bet that’ll have the buyers queueing up!

Refurbishment required!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 840FP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Clearly this bubble has pushed some peoples head firmly into the clouds...lalalalalalalal weeeeee lalalalala

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Todays offering. It just gets better. These Estate Agenst in Edinburgh must be seriously shi**ing themselves:

EN

"Estate agents call for calm as house prices take a nosedive"

You could not make it up. Why the fu*k would anyone do what an estate agent told them ?

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The Heritors thing is very significant. They manage big money and have been a major contributor to bidding up the price of property in Edinburgh.

They claim to have over £600m of value in Edinburgh and Glasgow

http://www.heritors.com/investors.htm

http://www.propertyexecutive.co.uk/2008/01...o-heritors.html

also:

CHRIS Buchan is an entrepreneur who is sold on the benefits of private banking.

Buchan runs Heritors Consultants, an Edinburgh property fund management business, which has funds under management of about £300 million. He has complex business needs which he says are met by Bank of Scotland's corporate private bank.

Buchan explained: "I have a number of relationships with the Bank of Scotland. I primarily use corporate banking for debt funding for a series of property investment funds I manage.

http://business.scotsman.com/banking/Going...deal.3927104.jp

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The Heritors thing is very significant. They manage big money and have been a major contributor to bidding up the price of property in Edinburgh.

They claim to have over £600m of value in Edinburgh and Glasgow

http://www.heritors.com/investors.htm

http://www.propertyexecutive.co.uk/2008/01...o-heritors.html

also:

CHRIS Buchan is an entrepreneur who is sold on the benefits of private banking.

Buchan runs Heritors Consultants, an Edinburgh property fund management business, which has funds under management of about £300 million. He has complex business needs which he says are met by Bank of Scotland's corporate private bank.

Buchan explained: "I have a number of relationships with the Bank of Scotland. I primarily use corporate banking for debt funding for a series of property investment funds I manage.

http://business.scotsman.com/banking/Going...deal.3927104.jp

Very interesting. So the question is just WHO is giving the instruction to sell their Edinburgh/Glasgow property ?

Is it Alexander himself ? Are these his own properties 'owned' through another company for tax purposes ?

Or are these properties part of the 'fund management' business, and it is in fact the banks that are pushing for the sales ?

Either way the big boys are telling the other big boys to get out of Scottish property. All this at the very same time they are 'advising' others to stay in and "DONT SELL".

You are right. This is big. This is very big. I think the whole 'Edinburgh is different' argument is blown out of the water by this.

I have alwasy thought that argument was nonsense. But there was always a nagging doubt they might just be right. Now that doubt has gone. Edinburgh is toast. Just as we expected. :o

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As always - follow the money. Heritors bought and upgraded properties and then used DJA as the letting agent. They obviously have a close working relationship, but that's just the same for any professional landlord who uses a letting agency. In fact DJA seems to have been one of the first to see the potential in this business model in the mid 90's and has done well out of it.

Heritors is a fund backed by institutional and private investors (according to their website) and they must be reading the same news as we are. Some will be feeling the pinch and looking to realise value from their investments.

In purely economic terms, all of this is rational, the only question is whether they are 6 months too late.

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Shouldn't we be trying to get some press (internet or not) to warn the people that this is happening. Not the crash of course, but i mean that on the one hand, this Property Investment company seems to be selling up, but on the other are telling people the market is fine.

It's quite shocking really, but of course the 'mafia' that is the ESPC and run the scotttish papers won't be letting on that there is any problem until they themselves have bailed from the market.

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Guest An Bearin Bui

Does anyone think The Herald might be interested in this as a scoop? They are a little bit more lefty and socialist than the Scotsman e.g. Iain McWhirter's anti-HPI boom articles always get published.

I would grass on DJ's myself but for the highly ironic fact that I rent a property from them (not a Heritors one, privately owned so little danger of having it sold up as yet!!) so am reluctant to write in to any media sources as I'd have to give my address... kind of like a property market version of yon olden times when the proletariat who worked in the factories couldn't grass on the company store's price fixing practices for fear of losing their job.

It would be funny if it weren't tragic... :rolleyes: :angry:

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More investigative fodder. This weeks ELPG has its usual editorial 'Safe as Houses' on the back page. In it the ESPC do their usual everything is rosy/now's a good time to buy bit. However, they back this up the 'facts'

-that there is a sharp upswing in the number of houses up for sale and this proves that the market is in good shape.

-volumes in Jan to March 2008 are higher than Jan March 2007 (802 vs 797)

I find this hard to believe given that overall figures, quoted at the end of the year, saw a dramatic slump in sales volume at the end of last year (annual 8000 vs 10000 in 2006), the market was truly boyant last year in Q1 and there wasn't a credit crunch.

ccc - you seem to have all the stats. Are the ESPC misquoting/misleading? If sp, there are legitimate grounds to complain to the advertising standards people. Getting a case against ESPC for misleading advertising would be a landmark in the fight against the Edinburgh property cartel.

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More investigative fodder. This weeks ELPG has its usual editorial 'Safe as Houses' on the back page. In it the ESPC do their usual everything is rosy/now's a good time to buy bit. However, they back this up the 'facts'

-that there is a sharp upswing in the number of houses up for sale and this proves that the market is in good shape.

-volumes in Jan to March 2008 are higher than Jan March 2007 (802 vs 797)

I find this hard to believe given that overall figures, quoted at the end of the year, saw a dramatic slump in sales volume at the end of last year (annual 8000 vs 10000 in 2006), the market was truly boyant last year in Q1 and there wasn't a credit crunch.

ccc - you seem to have all the stats. Are the ESPC misquoting/misleading? If sp, there are legitimate grounds to complain to the advertising standards people. Getting a case against ESPC for misleading advertising would be a landmark in the fight against the Edinburgh property cartel.

Their first point is not 'incorrect' as such. There are far more houses up for sale. To anyone with a brain this would be seen as a bad thing for the market. They are just using poor logic !!!

As for the second point I am unsure. Their own figures for sales are below:

Q1 2007

1721 sales

Q1 2008

1606 sales

I dont know where these 802 v 797 comes from ? This is the volume of what exactly ? Where do you get the ELPG from ?

PS. The above info is available on their website, bottom of page:

ESPC

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ccc

Thanks for this and link.

ELPG is free in the Edinburgh Evening news. It is also available to pick up at most solicitors. On reflection, not all ESPC members advertise in ELPG, so they may just be referring to volumes through this subset.

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ccc

Thanks for this and link.

ELPG is free in the Edinburgh Evening news. It is also available to pick up at most solicitors. On reflection, not all ESPC members advertise in ELPG, so they may just be referring to volumes through this subset.

Cheers for that. And yes as you say this is just 'cherry picking'.

I dont think they ared doind much that could fall foul of the PCC or anything. However their complete one-sided view is pretty shameful.

Todays fodder attached below:

Scotsman

"While the market here may take a breather, we believe there's every reason to assume that Scotland will escape unscathed and continue to enjoy a robust market."

This is actually embarressing. Such small minded 'little country' thinking. Do they think that you get special 'Scotland only mortgages' or something !!??

Whilst they do state:

"Although there have been warnings that Scotland could follow England into house-price dips by the end of the year, others are more optimistic"

The 'others', not surprisingly an estate agent, get 3 paragraphs to spout nonsense. Those who think the opposite ? They get nothing.

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Cheers for that. And yes as you say this is just 'cherry picking'.

I dont think they ared doind much that could fall foul of the PCC or anything. However their complete one-sided view is pretty shameful.

Todays fodder attached below:

Scotsman

"While the market here may take a breather, we believe there's every reason to assume that Scotland will escape unscathed and continue to enjoy a robust market."

This is actually embarressing. Such small minded 'little country' thinking. Do they think that you get special 'Scotland only mortgages' or something !!??

Whilst they do state:

"Although there have been warnings that Scotland could follow England into house-price dips by the end of the year, others are more optimistic"

The 'others', not surprisingly an estate agent, get 3 paragraphs to spout nonsense. Those who think the opposite ? They get nothing.

I've commented on this article, I notice ccc that you comment regularly, I will now try and do the same on the Scotsman to knock these lieing estate agents into to touch. Not to mention the propaganda machine that is the Scotsman.

When sentiment truly turns down up here (and lets face it the vast majority of E-bughites are still property obsessed which means they still need their property porn hit) and the estate agents stop paying (because they wont be able to afford it) the S'man a fortune to advertise and spin, expect the S'man to turn like most of the other UK press. Stories such as "Edinburgh heading for a crash" will hopefully become the norm as it will be these sorts of headlines that will then then sell papers.

Edited by geed
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I've commented on this article, I notice ccc that you comment regularly, I will now try and do the same on the Scotsman to knock these lieing estate agents into to touch. Not to mention the propaganda machine that is the Scotsman.

When sentiment truly turns up here (and lets face it the vast majority of E-bughites are still property obsessed which means they still need their property porn hit) and the estate agents stop paying (because they wont be able to afford it) the S'man a fortune to advertise and spin, expect the S'man to turn like most of the other UK press. Stories such as "Edinburgh heading for a crash" will hopefully become the norm as it will be these sorts of headlines that will then then sell papers.

That is exactly what I expect to happen. I happen to know for a fact that the people in charge of stories for the papers just believe what the various estate agents tell them. They don't bother to do any real research.

I can't say how I know exactly. You will have to trust me. ;)

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Guest An Bearin Bui

On the same topic of local media bias, I also noticed that the Edinburgh edition of the freebie METRO newspaper didn't have the "House Prices Could Crash 30%" front-page that the English papers had. Someone on the main forum posted a link to it and I was anticipating a fun day watching commuters picking up METROs and droping them in horror and revulsion but in Edinburgh the lead story instead was about some guy in London who got stabbed in the head while queuing to buy a copy of Grand Theft Auto. :blink::rolleyes:

Message: don't pay attention to nasty old London, Edinburghers, house prices there are falling 30% there and people are getting stabbed in the head on a regular basis!! It couldn't happen here!!!

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