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Aha

Just one post today in the Scotland subforum. Back to business as usual in here

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

House price crash cancelled in Scotland!!

If you insist: Buy-to-let market 'immune in crisis' (Scotsman).

SCOTLAND'S buy-to-let market is holding up despite the credit crunch – or even because of it – as potential house buyers are nervous about a possible drop in prices and many are struggling to obtain a mortgage.

The credit crunch is good for BTL, so there's nothing to worry about. It seems the BTL market is dominated by sophisticated investors who are well-placed to ride out any temporary blips in the world economy.

Also fro Friday's Evening News: Buyers lining up for Edinburgh flat with views worth £2m. This is at the Quartermile development. The readers had some fairly cynical comments (including a valiant effort by ccc who I think posts here), but towards the end various people came along to dismiss this as ignorance and jealousy. Seems you're right about the crash being cancelled.

Edit: Some interesting comments on the "BTL immune to crisis" story. There's one which says

I used to write freelance for the Herald and warned that many BTL landlords were not covering the cost of their capital and that many new builds were grossly over priced.A couple of my articles were spiked. After a while I was quietly told to shut up. Every iota of influence the ESPC, and law firms can use to influence copy content will be aimed at ensuring positive coverage from the Scotsman and Herald.....

There really is a conspiracy!

Also, more denial in the Evening News: Crisis, what crisis? The number of homes up for sale is soaring.. Maybe that's because people are trying to get shot of their investments while there's still a chance of making a profit.

Edited by Scunnered
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Aha

Just one post today in the Scotland subforum. Back to business as usual in here

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

House price crash cancelled in Scotland!!

Who exactly is it that is buying these hideously expensive Edinburgh pwoppities ? I mean it is a beautiful place - but it is pretty small, and there are only so many well paid bankers up there. :huh:

Maybe it must be those Japanese soldiers (mentioned earlier) picking up their pay checks after 40 years compound interest.

For what its worth I can remember the time a 1 or 2 bed flat fairly central could have been bought for around 1.5 times a graduate starting salary. And also for my tuppence worth. I do think Embra will take a price kicking - albeit last in the queue. ;)

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Guest An Bearin Bui
Who exactly is it that is buying these hideously expensive Edinburgh pwoppities ? I mean it is a beautiful place - but it is pretty small, and there are only so many well paid bankers up there. :huh:

Maybe it must be those Japanese soldiers (mentioned earlier) picking up their pay checks after 40 years compound interest.

For what its worth I can remember the time a 1 or 2 bed flat fairly central could have been bought for around 1.5 times a graduate starting salary. And also for my tuppence worth. I do think Embra will take a price kicking - albeit last in the queue. ;)

I just don't get it either - a 2-bed place near me went for about 280k recently and for the life of me, I can't fathom what kind of buyers they could be. Thankfully it's owner-occupiers rather than some vulgar BTL chavs but when you think about it, who spends 280k on a FLAT to live in? If you've got that kind of money, you'd want a house. A couple who both earn around 40k e.g. in banking and have 40k of a deposit, could afford this place but why would they want to? If you have that kind of money and salary, you'd be aiming a little higher in life than a 2-bed tenement flat. My OH and I could afford to spend this on a property but why bother? These are starter properties, not proper residences where you could raise a family and most of your neighbours would be students or tenants i.e. people who don't really have a long-term stake in the neighbourhood. Also, it's already reached its maximum value and will only stagnate or fall in price for the next ten years so, again, why bother? None of it makes sense.

I also was down in Leith yesterday and had a drive around Platinum Point for a nosey to see if any of the places are actually occupied. Surprised to say the ones on the outer-facing blocks were occupied and I only saw one For Sale sign. Again, it seems like the property bulls are judging market sentiment correctly here in Edinburgh. There are two whole phases completed in Platinum Point now and a third to commence soon and there is also a Barratt development going up on the same site. It has done wonders to regenerate the area but I just cannot for the life of me see where on earth the demand is coming from for all of these flats. No-one would want to rent there when you can rent so easily in town and why bother buying a flat for such a high price? Also I saw the new development at Telford College's ex-site the other day and it had a sign on it saying "City townhouses for only £360,000" - what planet are these people living on? The only people for whom £360,000 would seem like a bargain are the senior consultants at the Western General opposite, who are all on six-figure salaries, but I can guarantee most of them will be living in a mansion in the Grange rather than a "city townhouse" that looks like it's built out of polystyrene and sellotape.

Edinburgh is just a mystery to me. People I know who have plenty of money are not buying / have not bought in these new developments so who is?

Edited by An Bearin Bui
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I just don't get it either - a 2-bed place near me went for about 280k recently and for the life of me, I can't fathom what kind of buyers they could be. Thankfully it's owner-occupiers rather than some vulgar BTL chavs but when you think about it, who spends 280k on a FLAT to live in? If you've got that kind of money, you'd want a house.

...

Edinburgh is just a mystery to me. People I know who have plenty of money are not buying / have not bought in these new developments so who is?

That's exactly what I've been wondering for a long time. I've kind of got used to the prices now, but if I actually sit down and think about it it completely defies my understanding; it's like some kind of Zen paradox. As you say, if I had a quarter of a million pounds to spend then I'd be hoping for rather more than a two-bed flat. I can only imagine that it's because people have got carried away with the boom of the last few years and actually can't conceive of things being any different.

Coincidentally, I also had a walk around Platinum Point a few days ago. It was during a week-day afternoon, so it was difficult to tell how many people were actually living there. I did see quite a number of very expansive-looking cars there though; perhaps they belonged to the people selling the flats.

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I just don't get it either - a 2-bed place near me went for about 280k recently and for the life of me, I can't fathom what kind of buyers they could be. Thankfully it's owner-occupiers rather than some vulgar BTL chavs but when you think about it, who spends 280k on a FLAT to live in? If you've got that kind of money, you'd want a house. A couple who both earn around 40k e.g. in banking and have 40k of a deposit, could afford this place but why would they want to? If you have that kind of money and salary, you'd be aiming a little higher in life than a 2-bed tenement flat. My OH and I could afford to spend this on a property but why bother? These are starter properties, not proper residences where you could raise a family and most of your neighbours would be students or tenants i.e. people who don't really have a long-term stake in the neighbourhood. Also, it's already reached its maximum value and will only stagnate or fall in price for the next ten years so, again, why bother? None of it makes sense.

I also was down in Leith yesterday and had a drive around Platinum Point for a nosey to see if any of the places are actually occupied. Surprised to say the ones on the outer-facing blocks were occupied and I only saw one For Sale sign. Again, it seems like the property bulls are judging market sentiment correctly here in Edinburgh. There are two whole phases completed in Platinum Point now and a third to commence soon and there is also a Barratt development going up on the same site. It has done wonders to regenerate the area but I just cannot for the life of me see where on earth the demand is coming from for all of these flats. No-one would want to rent there when you can rent so easily in town and why bother buying a flat for such a high price? Also I saw the new development at Telford College's ex-site the other day and it had a sign on it saying "City townhouses for only £360,000" - what planet are these people living on? The only people for whom £360,000 would seem like a bargain are the senior consultants at the Western General opposite, who are all on six-figure salaries, but I can guarantee most of them will be living in a mansion in the Grange rather than a "city townhouse" that looks like it's built out of polystyrene and sellotape.

Edinburgh is just a mystery to me. People I know who have plenty of money are not buying / have not bought in these new developments so who is?

One source is "downsizers" freeing up equity in the big ol' family property by selling it, buying a large inner surburban flat for themselves, and giving the lefover cash to their sprogs. I know of a few which in my opinion is a shame. These 30 somethings will never truly understand the value of money and property as they haven't worked for it.

Edited by geed
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I just don't get it either - a 2-bed place near me went for about 280k recently and for the life of me, I can't fathom what kind of buyers they could be. Thankfully it's owner-occupiers rather than some vulgar BTL chavs but when you think about it, who spends 280k on a FLAT to live in? If you've got that kind of money, you'd want a house. A couple who both earn around 40k e.g. in banking and have 40k of a deposit, could afford this place but why would they want to? If you have that kind of money and salary, you'd be aiming a little higher in life than a 2-bed tenement flat. My OH and I could afford to spend this on a property but why bother? These are starter properties, not proper residences where you could raise a family and most of your neighbours would be students or tenants i.e. people who don't really have a long-term stake in the neighbourhood. Also, it's already reached its maximum value and will only stagnate or fall in price for the next ten years so, again, why bother? None of it makes sense.

I have to disagree strongly on the subject of two-bedroom tenement flats. People do bring up children in flats in Scottish cities, just as they do in cities in mainland Europe. Scotland doesn’t share with England the obsession with everyone having to have their own little house and garden – an obsession which ultimately leads to sprawling cities and the ‘death of suburbia’ country that Dr Bubb is always (rightly) banging on about.

Tenement flats are superbly designed and built, very spacious (a typical two-bed flat in south Edinburgh measures about 85 square metres), have good sound insulation, and garden access. They are not inherently inferior to houses, unlike the lousy conversion flats that are made from chopped-up old houses in London.

Also the two-bed tenements of south Edinburgh are invariably in band E for council tax, which suggests that they are not ‘starter homes’ and their prices were above the average when the council tax was invented in 1991.

Having said that, of course £280,000 is an absolutely barking mad price for such a flat, and I fully expect them to fall to around £150,000 during the course of the next three years or so.

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Also the two-bed tenements of south Edinburgh are invariably in band E for council tax, which suggests that they are not ‘starter homes’ and their prices were above the average when the council tax was invented in 1991.

Having said that, of course £280,000 is an absolutely barking mad price for such a flat, and I fully expect them to fall to around £150,000 during the course of the next three years or so.

I used to have the ESPC statistics for the year 2000. I believe that the average price for a 2-bed flat in Marchmont/Bruntsfield was £82,000 at that time. How things change.

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Interesting, my little area I have watched since January was pretty consistent for a month at 10 properties each week with 2 at fixed price and 1 or 2 new properties coming on. That has now dropped to 9 properties but 4 fixed prices and no new properties. I would expect to see the number of properties increasing into spring but it is flat if not dropping. The rise of FPs suggests some sellers have gone in too optimistically while the flat numbers suggests other sellers have decided just to sit this one out and wait and see. The average ask/fixed price is also increasing after it dipped in early March from £282K to £334K.

Hmmm!

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My usual ESPC search is showing 135 properties that meet my criteria, which is the highest ever and up 4 properties from last week.

The search is central Edinburgh, 2 bedroom flats between £150000 and £200000, but is a bit random about the neighbourhoods because I didn't program the search engine very well. I just use it as a guide for seeing what is on and what the going rates are. Some of the properties don't look too bad for the money... others; they have got to be joking.

This is my favourite 'make me laugh' property. I've got friends who live in this building. The flats are tiny with low ceilings, no storage and poor sound proofing.

http://www.espc.com/Buying/256575.html

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Guest An Bearin Bui
I have to disagree strongly... /snip/

Hey, don't get me wrong - I'm as big a fan of the Edinburgh-style tenement flats as the next person. In fact these old tenements are what make city living so much more attractive than it would be in most comparable UK cities. I know a couple of people who are raising families in 2 or 3 bed tenement flats but I know for sure that they didn't pay over a quarter of a million pounds for them!

That's my point: these flats are great and if you have young kids, it certainly means you get access to good schools (e.g. James Gillespies in Marchmont and Bruntsfield Primary) but at these prices??? No way. Flats like that should be around the 120-160k mark maximum. One I saw in Morningside even sold for 340k :blink::blink: - it's surreal. They're nice, but they're not that nice, considering you don't even get a decent garden or a garage.

Edited by An Bearin Bui
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ESPC front page tells you how many properties they have for sale or to rent.

15 Mar it was 6400

Today it is 8600

A rise of 34% in 5 weeks. Now even considering this is the busy time of year that is a HUGE increase. And remember whilst this is a busy time of year for selling, it should also be a busy time of year for buying. So an increase of this size, IMO, is quite incredible.

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I love the old tenement flats. I have a very small (32 m2) top floor studio one at the moment, but am hoping to move up to something bigger in the next couple of years. We'll see how fast my savings for a deposit catches up with the (fingers crossed) price falls in Edinburgh.

Why do new builds always have such small rooms?!? They can't compete at all with the spaciousness and flexibility of the big old tenements. It concerns me that so many new buildings of all types are cheap and cramped, people in the future will live a reduced lifestyle because of it.

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And it's not as if we don't have a lot of space in Scotland! I love the spacious U.S. / Oz properties.. wow!

ESPC front page tells you how many properties they have for sale or to rent.

15 Mar it was 6400

Today it is 8600

A rise of 34% in 5 weeks. Now even considering this is the busy time of year that is a HUGE increase. And remember whilst this is a busy time of year for selling, it should also be a busy time of year for buying. So an increase of this size, IMO, is quite incredible.

Damn, what depressing figures! I reckon if there's a crash in Edinburgh, it'll be separate from London.. maybe a few years delayed.

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And it's not as if we don't have a lot of space in Scotland! I love the spacious U.S. / Oz properties.. wow!

Damn, what depressing figures! I reckon if there's a crash in Edinburgh, it'll be separate from London.. maybe a few years delayed.

How are they depressing ? There are a record number of homes for sale in Edinburgh. Most are at fixed price because very few people are buying, and everything is looking bleaker for borrowers by the day.

I think this is going to hasten up the Edinburgh crash rather than delay it... ;)

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Guest An Bearin Bui
I love the old tenement flats. I have a very small (32 m2) top floor studio one at the moment, but am hoping to move up to something bigger in the next couple of years. We'll see how fast my savings for a deposit catches up with the (fingers crossed) price falls in Edinburgh.

Why do new builds always have such small rooms?!? They can't compete at all with the spaciousness and flexibility of the big old tenements. It concerns me that so many new buildings of all types are cheap and cramped, people in the future will live a reduced lifestyle because of it.

I met someone who was working on the Quartermile development and was told that they actually had to re-work the plans during the build as they realised that the toilets in some of the flats were too small to allow anyone 6 feet or over to stand up in them(!). Bit of a problem as most of the 6 ft+ population are male...

It's pure greed that drives it - the Quartermile site could actually have been a great development given the large airy windows and grand Victorian scale of the old hospital buildings but instead they squeezed in as many rabbit hutches as they could legally fit. If the builders weren't so greedy it could actually be a very nice development but the above anecdote put me right off (not to mention the idiotic 300k+ price tags :rolleyes: )

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On the talk of a rise in properties for sale:

I did some work from the ASPC - Aberdeen - and found out that the number of properties selling per quarter hasn't really changed that much in the past 7 years or so.

But the number of properties for sale has:

Numbers fell from over 3,000 on the register in 2001 (for each quarter)

And fell over the next 4 years until the numbers bottomed at less than 500 in Q4 2006 - at this point the number of houses sold in that quarter was over 1500 - meaning that properties were marketed on ASPC for an average of 1 month.

What we have now seen is an increase properties on the register with numbers rising by over 500 YOY for Q4 (2006/7) and by more than that for Q1 (2007/8).

More places are on the market and it will be interesting to see who the market responds.

Sales have been roughly the same over the past 7 years with Q1 2008 being higher than any Q1 for the past 7 years - but we'll see how this changes.

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How are they depressing ? There are a record number of homes for sale in Edinburgh. Most are at fixed price because very few people are buying, and everything is looking bleaker for borrowers by the day.

I think this is going to hasten up the Edinburgh crash rather than delay it... ;)

I love your optimistic posts!! :):)

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I love your optimistic posts!! :):)

Purely realistic. Seriously I want to know how you equate a massive increase in properties for sale, whilst the number of buyers is dropping, as a bad thing for people wanting a serious fall ? Have I missed something.

Surely if you are trying to sell a house the less competition the better.....

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Purely realistic. Seriously I want to know how you equate a massive increase in properties for sale, whilst the number of buyers is dropping, as a bad thing for people wanting a serious fall ? Have I missed something.

Surely if you are trying to sell a house the less competition the better.....

I actually misunderstood what the figures represented. I thought that was the number of people buying increasing rather than the number of places available. 'My bad' oops!!

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I actually misunderstood what the figures represented. I thought that was the number of people buying increasing rather than the number of places available. 'My bad' oops!!

Nah that is the sellers !!

And BTW if you need a piece of real evidence that things are on a down turn I advise you to do the following:

Head down Dundas St. Stop at the junction with Cumberland St. Remember this is one of the most prestigious and sought after addresses in Edinburgh.

Look down both sides of the street, left and right off Dundas St. That should cheer you up.

;)

Edited by ccc
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That post about the Quarter Mile development was very interesting. The shoe boxes that they've already finished above the new Sainsburys are dreadful. Everybody who walks by can look straight into your living space and worse on the other side the building the flats look directly into the flats opposite at a distance of about 100 ft. You'd have to have your curtains closed all the time!

I completely agree that they could have been fantastic conversions. I know they are releasing the flats in bunches, but I can't help but think that there are some muppets out there who will want them, so they might drive down the area prices generally.

I'm trying to be optimistic.

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Nah that is the sellers !!

And BTW if you need a piece of real evidence that things are on a down turn I advise you to do the following:

Head down Dundas St. Stop at the junction with Cumberland St. Remember this is one of the most prestigious and sought after addresses in Edinburgh.

Look down both sides of the street, left and right off Dundas St. That should cheer you up.

;)

Deal, I'll do that!! :)

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