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Halifax Numbers Due Out This Week I Think.....

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Halifax Numbers Due Out this Week i think.....

What does everyone think they will be?

Can someone who is in the know let us have the date, it wasn't on the last report as far as i could see!

So what's it to be? I think -0.1% from the Halifax, while they offload all their houses at auction quick sharp!

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Halifax Numbers Due Out this Week i think.....

What does everyone think they will be?

Can someone who is in the know let us have the date, it wasn't on the last report as far as i could see!

So what's it to be? I think -0.1% from the Halifax, while they offload all their houses at auction quick sharp!

According to the Times they will be down -0.1 % however they have been wrong by significant margins before. In order to catch up with the Natiowide data they should be down a lot i.e about 2% but they wouldnt want to let s figure like that out. I guess it comes down to how big a SA they put on the figures ... anyone got any idea what the SA for February is for Halifax ?

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According to the Times they will be down -0.1 % however they have been wrong by significant margins before. In order to catch up with the Natiowide data they should be down a lot i.e about 2% but they wouldnt want to let s figure like that out. I guess it comes down to how big a SA they put on the figures ... anyone got any idea what the SA for February is for Halifax ?

It's up, so you won't see any real big falls. Remember last month?

2.1% down becomes flat.

I don't think they season Feb as much as Jan, and March April are normally very busy so these will be seasoned down, at which point, they will take the unadjusted figures and talk about pent up demand and the green shoots of recovery.

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Anyone know exactly when they are due out?

Probably after they have arranged a suitable time with the BBC to bury the bad news ;) Halifax must be hoping for some floods in Gloucestershire again or a nice train crash.

Moi, a cynic?

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It's getting too big to hide with seasoning. -0.2%

Ok.

Just done some calculations...

I think that if the february unadjusted figure is the same as the january unadjusted one, we will see a -1.4% drop on the SA figures.

For people to check my maths on this:

Went through and worked out that the average seasonal adjustment for Feb is +1.69%.

However, last month's SA was 3.12%, so because the seasoning is less, they have to unwind some of it.

January unadjusted figure was 191,275

Adjusted was 197,244

Difference = 5380

Difference as a %age of unadjusted figure = 3.12%

So...

Feb unadjusted unchanged - 191275

The upward adjustment should be around +1.69%

Feb SA = 191275*1.0169 = 194909

% Change from January = (194909/197244)-1)*100 = -1.387%

As January was unseasonably high, in terms of seasoning (the largest seasoning they have ever done), we may see February higher too, say around 2% that would show a 1% drop.

Let's see what they do, shall we?

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...I guess it comes down to how big a SA they put on the figures ... anyone got any idea what the SA for February is for Halifax ?

February seasonal adjustment is likely be in the region of +0.5% to +2% if history is anything to go by. My guess is it will be +1.9%

I have put together a chart of Halifax's seasoning figures for the last 25 years.

See this thread for the chart:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=69906

Stuart

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February seasonal adjustment is likely be in the region of +0.5% to +2% if history is anything to go by. My guess is it will be +1.9%

I have put together a chart of Halifax's seasoning figures for the last 25 years.

See this thread for the chart:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=69906

Stuart

Hah,

I just posted the question to your answer on the other thread.

I reckon 1.9 is about right, although I wouldn't be surprised if it went over 2.1% to try and reduce the impact of the headlines.

It would be Hilarious if there was an unseasoned drop as well.

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I've never been able to figure the Halifax release date - it is around the BOE thursday decision so either tomorrow or over next 2 days.

figures - well SA is reducing from last months record SA so probably headline -0.2% real -2%

but what do I know

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February seasonal adjustment is likely be in the region of +0.5% to +2% if history is anything to go by. My guess is it will be +1.9%

I have put together a chart of Halifax's seasoning figures for the last 25 years.

See this thread for the chart:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=69906

Stuart

Seasonal adjustment.....

Not sure about Halifax, but Nationwide say:

"We seasonally adjust our prices because the time of year has some influence. Winter months tend to see weaker price rises and spring/summer see higher increases all other things being equal "

See the basic assumption - house prices always go up.

Could it really be that - "house price changes lose momentum (positive or negative) in the winter months because of lower activity". In other words, should the seasonal adjustment really be -ve.

In a quiet market (you get 1 offer at 15% below asking) you wait till spring, if you get 5 offers from between 20% and 15% below asking, you grab the 15% offer now and don't wait till spring.

Anyway, if they stick to their methodology then the summer drops will be amplified.

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Seasonal adjustment.....

Not sure about Halifax, but Nationwide say:

"We seasonally adjust our prices because the time of year has some influence. Winter months tend to see weaker price rises and spring/summer see higher increases all other things being equal "

See the basic assumption - house prices always go up.

Could it really be that - "house price changes lose momentum (positive or negative) in the winter months because of lower activity". In other words, should the seasonal adjustment really be -ve.

In a quiet market (you get 1 offer at 15% below asking) you wait till spring, if you get 5 offers from between 20% and 15% below asking, you grab the 15% offer now and don't wait till spring.

Anyway, if they stick to their methodology then the summer drops will be amplified.

Absolutely, but as per my unchecked maths above, it is the change in seasoning that affects the headline figures. The fact that they had 3% in january and now have to reduce it to under or around 2% (depending on their level of desperation), means that the figures will show a drop this month unless there actually is a huge recovery.

There is a third alternative, that has been seen in the Global Warming debate: witholding the raw data from anybody who wants to question your results.

It is possible that Halifax will stop publishing the raw figures. Then they could make up any old seasonal adjustment that they want.

I don't think they will, because the great thing about seasonal adjustment is that you can ignore the raw figures in the winter, and then focus on them in the summer.

Just watch the Daily Express. :lol:

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I'm predicting that the figure will be SA'd to be unexciting and the media will jump on the soft landing theory all over again:

'we must prevent a panic' (and sell our own BTL in the mean time)

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Figures aren't up on the website yet.

They came out on the 5th at 08:00 last month.......

yeah it would be nice to knwo when they came ount :( so maybe tomorrow. :(

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yeah it would be nice to knwo when they came ount :( so maybe tomorrow. :(

It is crucial for the VIs to "get it right" at this point in the crash. Too much and the herd will be sent into a panic./ Too little and credibility will be lost. They have a big job to season, mix and adjust to produce just the right data to keep things calm.

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yeah it would be nice to knwo when they came ount :( so maybe tomorrow. :(

The next BoE MPC decision is tomorrow. The Halifax figures must be positive otherwise they'd be out by now in an attempt to lobby hard.

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The next BoE MPC decision is tomorrow. The Halifax figures must be positive otherwise they'd be out by now in an attempt to lobby hard.

Negative you mean?

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The next BoE MPC decision is tomorrow. The Halifax figures must be positive otherwise they'd be out by now in an attempt to lobby hard.

Sounds right. The data will say what it needs to say to protect their business interests.

After all, what is truth?

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:blink:

Are HPC.co's servers acting up again? Too much traffic. Need to buy the latest IBM superservers that can handle vast amounts of traffic. ;)

Edited by Realistbear

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Negative you mean?

No, I mean positive, i.e. house prices have still gone up.

If the figures were showing a drop they'd be out today.

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