Northampton

[pablopatito]

It is a nice area, but if you click the link on Rightmove showing recently sold properties in that street (what a fantastic feature!), it looks like similar properties sold recently for around 300 to 400k, so I have no idea where they got £775k from. I guess because it's shiny and new. Personally, I'd rather buy a 20 year old house with a massive garden and install my own kitchen than pay a 300 grand mark-up for a new house with a tiny garden and someone else's idea of what a great kitchen should be (which mainly seems to be a massive American style fridge, granite work tops and lots and lots of spotlights). But I know I'm in a minority - I also buy my cars second hand and don't have the latest iPhone.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

It is a nice area, but if you click the link on Rightmove showing recently sold properties in that street (what a fantastic feature!), it looks like similar properties sold recently for around 300 to 400k, so I have no idea where they got £775k from. I guess because it's shiny and new. Personally, I'd rather buy a 20 year old house with a massive garden and install my own kitchen than pay a 300 grand mark-up for a new house with a tiny garden and someone else's idea of what a great kitchen should be (which mainly seems to be a massive American style fridge, granite work tops and lots and lots of spotlights). But I know I'm in a minority - I also buy my cars second hand and don't have the latest iPhone.

Hey PB. Howz it going ?

You must be glad you bought when you did now ?

Any signs of the madness falling apart ?

[pablopatito]

Hi Count

No sign of the madness falling apart here in Wootton, quite the opposite - it seems to get madder each week. I am relieved I bought when I did as I'm not sure I could afford to live here now otherwise.

I was surprised by the media generally saying that deflation is good for everyone, as it's bad for mortgages. Inflation erodes the real cost of mortgage payments. But I guess people don't care so long as the price of a loaf of bread and a pint of milk keeps falling. I don't really feel that I understand the world anymore

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Hi Count

No sign of the madness falling apart here in Wootton, quite the opposite - it seems to get madder each week. I am relieved I bought when I did as I'm not sure I could afford to live here now otherwise.

I was surprised by the media generally saying that deflation is good for everyone, as it's bad for mortgages. Inflation erodes the real cost of mortgage payments. But I guess people don't care so long as the price of a loaf of bread and a pint of milk keeps falling. I don't really feel that I understand the world anymore

Nor me, what I have seen going on in Wootton defies belief. I cannot imagine who is stupid enough to pay those prices. It's all set up for one horrific/terrific collapse now.

Even if I was inclined to buy now the asking prices are so daft there is no point even viewing now.

If you have a look at the "is the shires collapsing" thread you will see a nice little anecdote from me there. 100% true. One (new) neighbour bought last summer and paid £32K more that someone thats just bought, for a worse house !!!!

There really are some mugs out there.

Im just sitting watching it all unfold with a sense of incredulity and fear for what is about to unfold.

Edited April 8, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere

[TheCountOfNowhere]

A collapse cant be far off now:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49291939.html?premiumA=true

mental.

[thecrashingisles]

A collapse cant be far off now:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49291939.html?premiumA=true

mental.

Are you familiar with the concept of cognitive dissonance?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Are you familiar with the concept of cognitive dissonance?

Yes, very good.

asking price ( fantasy ) versus sold prices ( reality ).

The fantasy aligns with my understanding of what is going on, as does the reality.

My posts are to point out the absurdity of the current market, versus the reality.

This house is an average house on a poor quality estate on the edge of a poor quality town and quite possibly on a flood plain.

Average income locally, what, £30K, that average house is 12 times the average income.

Is there some reason you keep having a dig ?

[thecrashingisles]

Is there some reason you keep having a dig ?

I just find it slightly comical that you keep posting that prices going up is evidence of an imminent collapse, and also that you keep banging on about how crap the town is.

The sad truth is that 2008-2011 was a genuine buying opportunity, in Northampton more so than in most places.

Just 10% off the house you linked to matches recent sold prices in the same street so as an asking price I don't think it's particularly crazy.

Edited April 9, 2015 by thecrashingisles

[canbuywontbuy]

Are you familiar with the concept of cognitive dissonance?

The sad truth is that 2008-2011 was a genuine buying opportunity, in Northampton more so than in most places.

[thecrashingisles]

Where's the dissonance?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I just find it slightly comical that you keep posting that prices going up is evidence of an imminent collapse, and also that you keep banging on about how crap the town is.

The sad truth is that 2008-2011 was a genuine buying opportunity, in Northampton more so than in most places.

Just 10% off the house you linked to matches recent sold prices in the same street so as an asking price I don't think it's particularly crazy.

2008 was a genuine buying opportunity in Northampton before the government got the chance to fund the bankers.

If you can supply links to the previious sold price that would be useful, instead of having a dig.

If the sold price was in 2007 or last year it's off the bag of some undeniable unsustainable debt bubble, trying to sell at 10% beyond that is a sign of the madness that is going to have a grave impact on us all.

Are you in denial about Northampton going to the dogs ?

The governments desire to keep the banks solvent and prices up via immigration is one of the problems the bubble is having for Northampton.

I've still no idea why you are having a dig though. Are you stressed out about no buying into this madness ?

Have you bought into this madness at a silly price and trying to justify your position ?

Do you think what we are seeing is a normal market ?

[thecrashingisles]

2008 was a genuine buying opportunity in Northampton before the government got the chance to fund the bankers.

If you can supply links to the previious sold price that would be useful, instead of having a dig.

If the sold price was in 2007 or last year it's off the bag of some undeniable unsustainable debt bubble, trying to sell at 10% beyond that is a sign of the madness that is going to have a grave impact on us all.

Are you in denial about Northampton going to the dogs ?

The governments desire to keep the banks solvent and prices up via immigration is one of the problems the bubble is having for Northampton.

I've still no idea why you are having a dig though. Are you stressed out about no buying into this madness ?

Have you bought into this madness at a silly price and trying to justify your position ?

Do you think what we are seeing is a normal market ?

The link is the same as yours - http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49291939.html?premiumA=true- look at the right hand column. There are 3 sales in 2015/14.

Yes I'm in denial about Northampton going to the dogs. I think that for the first time in decades it is taking steps to improve its relative position and in 5 years time things will look very much better. In any case arguing that house prices should go down because the place is a shithole is self-defeating and nihilistic.

No I haven't bought into the madness but I also think it's foolish to wait for a quick correction. Everything will depend upon the rate of monetary tightening in the US, and in any case it won't have a big impact on affordability unless you have a big pile of cash.

The market has been pretty much as it is for around a decade now so define normal? I do think the long term trend will eventually be down but it will be a slow Japanese style process.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

The link is the same as yours - http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49291939.html?premiumA=true- look at the right hand column. There are 3 sales in 2015/14.

Yes I'm in denial about Northampton going to the dogs. I think that for the first time in decades it is taking steps to improve its relative position and in 5 years time things will look very much better. In any case arguing that house prices should go down because the place is a shithole is self-defeating and nihilistic.

No I haven't bought into the madness but I also think it's foolish to wait for a quick correction. Everything will depend upon the rate of monetary tightening in the US, and in any case it won't have a big impact on affordability unless you have a big pile of cash.

The market has been pretty much as it is for around a decade now so define normal? I do think the long term trend will eventually be down but it will be a slow Japanese style process.

I'm not convinced Northampton is rising from the ashes, all I see if public sector spending ( QE money ? ) and a "university" taking over the town. Cant see that ending well but I hope I am wrong.

The market has not been the same for a decade...8 years ago it collapsed, prices collapsed and sales volumes collapsed, with low interest rates they managed to put a floor under if for 3 years, then with FLS, HTB, propaganda they've managed to inflate a london bubble that will destroy many financially.. This has had a bad impact on prices locally, i.e. that place I listed above wouldnt sell for 250K 2 years ago, now it's up for 275K propped up by our own taxes !!!

I suspect we will get even more madness before something does give way but maybe the Japanese long slow death is the best we can hope for.

I think we will see a reversal of the 18 months of madness quite soon though, my main reason being...the insane prices.

[canbuywontbuy]

Where's the dissonance?

Really...? Do you think a 15% decline in prices from the peak of 2007 is a buying opportunity? You say yourself (and I agree with you) that the UK is going to enter a long long decline just like Japan, where property is 1/3rd the value in 2015 what it was in 1991 (wrap your head around that one) - not sure why 15% below absolute peak value is a buying opportunity when you say we're turning Japanese. I've been in and out of Northampton since 1983 and remember very well the late 80s and early 90s where factory workers bought homes, regardless of interest rates. Now 6 years solid of 320 year record low interest rates the market is STILL flat. Why is that? Obviously houses aren't over-valued, right?

[thecrashingisles]

Really...? Do you think a 15% decline in prices from the peak of 2007 is a buying opportunity? You say yourself (and I agree with you) that the UK is going to enter a long long decline just like Japan, where property is 1/3rd the value in 2015 what it was in 1991 (wrap your head around that one) - not sure why 15% below absolute peak value is a buying opportunity when you say we're turning Japanese. I've been in and out of Northampton since 1983 and remember very well the late 80s and early 90s where factory workers bought homes, regardless of interest rates. Now 6 years solid of 320 year record low interest rates the market is STILL flat. Why is that? Obviously houses aren't over-valued, right?

They are but you can't look at the local market in isolation. The top end of the market is inexplicably cheaper than Milton Keynes and this was even more marked when prices dropped. During that period London, which is the true driver of prices and will become even more so over the coming decades, didn't drop at all.

[Executive Sadman]

I just find it slightly comical that you keep posting that prices going up is evidence of an imminent collapse, and also that you keep banging on about how crap the town is.

The sad truth is that 2008-2011 was a genuine buying opportunity, in Northampton more so than in most places.

Just 10% off the house you linked to matches recent sold prices in the same street so as an asking price I don't think it's particularly crazy.

It was a good flipping opportunity...that much i'd agree on. Most of the places that fell to historically reasonable levels are not places i'd want to put down roots.

[canbuywontbuy]

MK prices being higher is just because of the jobs there. Northampton's an old market town surrounded by ageing industrial estates that haven't changed in 30 years. When Wootton, Hunsbury and Grange Park are described as convenient access to the M1, you know where the priorities lie. Tell me - do estate agents in Milton Keynes advertise properties there as convenient access to Northampton?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

MK prices being higher is just because of the jobs there. Northampton's an old market town surrounded by ageing industrial estates that haven't changed in 30 years. When Wootton, Hunsbury and Grange Park are described as convenient access to the M1, you know where the priorities lie. Tell me - do estate agents in Milton Keynes advertise properties there as convenient access to Northampton?

I look at some of the prices in MK and the S.E. now ( had a look as part of the shires is crashing thread ) and think they look cheaper than Northants !!! even if the prices are comparable the housing stock seems better.

Since when did it become such a great idea for prices become so far detached from what people earn ?

Milton Keynes will have got a lot of the people moving out of London due to the fast train link but you are still looking at 1.5 hours door to door and a £5-£10K a year bill for commuting.

[thecrashingisles]

MK prices being higher is just because of the jobs there. Northampton's an old market town surrounded by ageing industrial estates that haven't changed in 30 years. When Wootton, Hunsbury and Grange Park are described as convenient access to the M1, you know where the priorities lie. Tell me - do estate agents in Milton Keynes advertise properties there as convenient access to Northampton?

Yes but you're looking at the situation today. The question is how that balance will change over the next 10 years. Northampton has more upside simply because it has been bumping along the bottom for so long and has managed to escape without turning into a Luton style dump.

[canbuywontbuy]

Northampton has more upside simply because it has been bumping along the bottom for so long and has managed to escape without turning into a Luton style dump.

Not sure what you mean here. "Bumping along the bottom"? I see house prices in Northampton more like a helium-filled balloon bumping along a ceiling - the helium is ZIRP and all the government gimmicks we've discussed to death, but the ceiling is the unignorable truth: wages are flat, TRUE job opportunities are rare, and there's a massive explosion in cheap immigrant labour ready to fill any crappy position. All of these things are a massive anchor on house prices, regardless of how utterly obsesssed the government are with pumping them up.

What's the "silver bullet" that's going to knock Northampton out of its torpor? Oil under Sussex?

[bear.getting.old]

2008 was a genuine buying opportunity in Northampton before the government got the chance to fund the bankers.

If you can supply links to the previious sold price that would be useful, instead of having a dig.

If the sold price was in 2007 or last year it's off the bag of some undeniable unsustainable debt bubble, trying to sell at 10% beyond that is a sign of the madness that is going to have a grave impact on us all.

Are you in denial about Northampton going to the dogs ?

The governments desire to keep the banks solvent and prices up via immigration is one of the problems the bubble is having for Northampton.

I've still no idea why you are having a dig though. Are you stressed out about no buying into this madness ?

Have you bought into this madness at a silly price and trying to justify your position ?

Do you think what we are seeing is a normal market ?

When my ex gf bought a house in East Hunsbury in 2009 I thought she was mad. She got a good cheap price but this was when Bear Sterns had just gone bust. I thought prices would continue to drop to 30% down. Turned out she was spot on with her timing. Now shes sold up and moved to a bigger house. The future looks bleak for HPC that is meaningful soon.

[thecrashingisles]

Not sure what you mean here. "Bumping along the bottom"? I see house prices in Northampton more like a helium-filled balloon bumping along a ceiling - the helium is ZIRP and all the government gimmicks we've discussed to death, but the ceiling is the unignorable truth: wages are flat, TRUE job opportunities are rare, and there's a massive explosion in cheap immigrant labour ready to fill any crappy position. All of these things are a massive anchor on house prices, regardless of how utterly obsesssed the government are with pumping them up.

What's the "silver bullet" that's going to knock Northampton out of its torpor? Oil under Sussex?

By 'bumping along the bottom' I mean just the sense of a place going nowhere rather than anything to do with house prices. We've seen what we've seen with house prices in a period where TRUE job opportunities have been thin on the ground. My view is that there will be more true opportunities in the next 20 years than there were in the previous 20. It doesn't take a silver bullet to change a town's prospects, just a gradual shift in trends.

[canbuywontbuy]

We've seen what we've seen with house prices in a period where TRUE job opportunities have been thin on the ground

We've seen what we've seen only because of QE,6 years of ZIRP,H2B,FLS ... there's always an inverse relationship between high house prices and low mortgage costs. Your assumption (without explaining the "how" by the way) is that Northampton's going to go through a bit of a boom in the next 20 years, so look out - house prices are going to climb. Even if true, a TRUE period of prosperity will come with interest rates rises which will put downward pressure on house prices. Why do you think we've had ZIRP for 6 years? Because we've also had zero (TRUE) prosperity for the last 6 years.

[pablopatito]

My house of the week:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49430092.html

450 grand for a 4 bed detached with loft conversion and no front garden in Hunsbury Meadows (not sure about the back garden, but the fact that there are no photos of it probably speaks for itself).

[canbuywontbuy]

http://www.rightmove...y-49430092.html

450 grand for a 4 bed detached with loft conversion and no front garden in Hunsbury Meadows (not sure about the back garden, but the fact that there are no photos of it probably speaks for itself).

From the only single shot of the outside of the property, looks a like a typical new build estate - everything OUTSIDE properties is too small (the road too narrow, even pavements narrow, narrow gaps between houses, tiny gardens / no gardens). Typical way to sell houses - sell it on room count and interior, not immediate surroundings.