Converted Lurker Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 I don't doubt the stats at all but it would be more interesting to see how much people owe against the value of their house. I have a mortgage and on the current prices probably own about 30% of it, this would put me at risk if house prices were to fall by much as 40%. I'm probably very lucky in that I know of a number of people who actually took out a 110% mortgage, as they added the stamp duty and fees to the actual mortgage. I'm not sure how many people there are like this but I know they exist. Our house is, on current valuations, 30% mortgaged (based on a sale that completed last week in the same road - although ours is much nicer (needs irony/denial emoticon ). Now I fully expect that at best we'll hold on to being 50% mortgaged, which a wise old sage mentioned some time back is where mortgage customers should attmept to be in order to batten down hatches etc. Fukc it, just decided that our road is immune, 20% growth year on year can't be ruled out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 i understand what you're saying but i do think you're tripping if you think 25% is a 'modest correction'; thatt's a crash surely?of course it's 100% possible / likely but to describe it as you have presumably means 'Great Crash 1' should really be called 'Modest Correction 1', which doesn't really have the same ring to it. Owners will see 25% as a crash, however even that doesnt take prices back into the realm of affordable housing, average HPrice of £150K reduced from around £200K still leaves the median waged buyer with houses of 7 x annual wages. a real crash would be around 50% down in my mind and quite possible with the current set of conditions converging as they are, eg financial calamity (credit crunch) price inflation leading to higher interest rates and to top it off the potential for a real recession with high unemployment. And those are the certainties, never mind the other monsters hiding under the bed, like war with Iran, peak oil etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
starsign Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 If you're going to argue averages you have to stick to averages, not pick and choose. I've been doing a bit of research on Joe Average and was pleased to see the ONS begin to explode some myths - Average household mortgage is 140K, average house price (Nationwide) 190K, doesn't read that well does it? Average Joe only has 50K equity, 70K according to some indices, perhaps at the extreme 85K if you believe other stats from FT Index etc. Now with a modest correction of 25% off values Average Joe is approaching zero/negative equity. Ten years ago the average outstanding mortgage was 50K, just as house prices have trebled so have mortgages. What is increasingly rare is to find folk that have simply; gone to work, ignored all the noise re. house prices, have lived in the same house for ten years, kept their head down and their finances straight and paid down the mortgage. That certainly isn't Average Joe who has remortgaged twice. In fact according to recent research only 20% of mortgage holders have stayed loyal to their original lender over the past ten years. Moving mortgage, taking out equity, (MEW) is more common than most think and has been a huge driver to our one track economy. Mrs Average Joe has insisted on keeping up with the Joneses i was sticking to averages, this is the data I referred to: Average outstanding mortgage for the 11.8m households who currently have mortgages is £98,517 Source: http://www.creditaction.org.uk/debtstats.htm Is this data any more / less robust than ONS? I'm not an expert on these data sources but the total debt figures get quoted on here quite often. BTW, you can remortgage without taking on extra debt and without moving back to 25 years...if you have some stats on how many people extend the mortgage and extend the term when they remortgage then please post . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levy process Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 He must have been thinking about another country - not profilgate Britain.Compare the UK 21% without mortgages, with a less-borrowed place like Hong Kong: QUOTE Loads of Debt-free Households: + "According to the governments latest figures, the number of households earning HK$50,000 per month or above totalled 250,600 - up 4.6% from last year. And about 52% of homeowners are free of mortgage debt." UNQUOTE /see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....=920&st=100 Where would you rather own property?? Whoa! Hang on! We have to be careful how the statistics are interpreted. Maybe 40% houses have no mortgage, but 21% of people live in a house with no mortgage. For example, the houses with no mortgage on them could be populated by 21% of the population. In fact, I'd say that is quite likely, given that old people living in a couple or alone likely have no mortgage, while 79% of people are piled into the rest of the housing stock with a mortgage on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
234SALE Posted November 7, 2007 Author Share Posted November 7, 2007 Yes, I was right D23 you are another 23 nut, The spiral tribe logo gives you well away I reakon 99% of this forum have no idea what you avitar is but I do 23 4sale forward the revolution.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OurDayWillCome Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 you are another 23 nut, The spiral tribe logo gives you well away I was watching 'The Number 23' when I decided to check how long was left – I hit the display time button and it was showing 23m00s – what are the odds of that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsta1964 Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 Source - Credit Action Debt Facts and Figures - Compiled 1st November 2007 Total UK personal debt Total UK personal debt at the end of September 2007 stood at £1,380bn. The growth rate increased to 10.0% for the previous 12 months which equates to an increase of £120bn. Total secured lending on homes at the end of September 2007 stood at £1,163bn. This has increased 10.9% in the last 12 months. Total consumer credit lending to individuals in September 2007 was £217bn. This has increased 5.8% in the last 12 months. Total lending in September 2007 grew by £11.2bn. Secured lending grew by £9.8bn in the month. Consumer credit lending grew by £1.4bn. Average household debt in the UK is £8,681 (excluding mortgages). This figure increases to £20,189 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan. Average household debt in the UK is £55,403 (including mortgages). Average owed by every UK adult is £29,063 (including mortgages). This grew by £350 last month. Average outstanding mortgage for the 11.8m households who currently have mortgages is £98,517 Average interest paid by each household on their total debt is approximately £3,718 each year (this equates to 9% of take home pay). Average consumer borrowing via credit cards, motor and retail finance deals, overdrafts and unsecured personal loans has risen to £4,554 per average UK adult at the end of September 2007. Britain's personal debt is increasing by £1 million every 4 minutes. Today in the UK: Consumers will borrow an additional £330m today The average household debt will increase by over £13.25 today 77 properties will be repossessed today 317 people today will be declared insolvent or bankrupt 2,750 County Court Judgements (CCJs) issued Bank and building societies will hand out £1bn in mortgages today Citizen Advice Bureaus will deal with 6,600 debt problems today The average car will cost £15 to run today More than 7,716 loan repayments are going unpaid every day The average home will cost £30 today to run Raising a child to the age of 21 will now set you back £23.50 daily The price of a typical house will increase by £45 today £500m will be withdrawn from cash machines today by 7.5m people across the UK 24.5m transactions worth £1.4bn will be spent on plastic cards today 1/3rd of all groceries we buy today will end up in the dustbin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Limpet Posted November 7, 2007 Share Posted November 7, 2007 I'm now seeing (for the first time) valuations differing (being re-valued) by up to 10% by the valuer even at the FTB level of circa 150K. So there's (theoretically) a 10% crash simply due to sentiment affecting surveyors. As always you must remove your own pre-conceptions from any analysis. The Morgan Stanley CE recently described 40% of house valuations as "froth", I reckon 25%, over a 3 year period, is very realistic. It'll take us back to the 'sunny halycon affordability days' of sunny 2004-2005. Those few words speak volumes about the ridiculousness of the whole situation! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
234SALE Posted November 8, 2007 Author Share Posted November 8, 2007 I was watching 'The Number 23' when I decided to check how long was left – I hit the display time button and it was showing 23m00s – what are the odds of that! Actually it is in most american films, on purpose, usually... 23% of films have the number 23 somewhere in the film... 23 isn't good or bad, nor is it my lucky number but if you observe it it comes up at some very strange points in your life.. Spiral Tribe was a organisation know for their love of the 23 Infact I used to be a fan of the KLF, later I ownly realised they also had 23 hidden many places in their music videos Jimmy Carrie has been a 23 nut probably for as long as I have. I also own twenty3.co.uk also twenty3 LTD so it became away of life for me... Have you watched Mulholland Drive or Lost Highway,,, what The Number twenty3 was trying to be... Regards 234sale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigsrenting Posted November 8, 2007 Share Posted November 8, 2007 Actually it is in most american films, on purpose, usually...23% of films have the number 23 somewhere in the film... 23 isn't good or bad, nor is it my lucky number but if you observe it it comes up at some very strange points in your life.. Spiral Tribe was a organisation know for their love of the 23 Infact I used to be a fan of the KLF, later I ownly realised they also had 23 hidden many places in their music videos Jimmy Carrie has been a 23 nut probably for as long as I have. I also own twenty3.co.uk also twenty3 LTD so it became away of life for me... Have you watched Mulholland Drive or Lost Highway,,, what The Number twenty3 was trying to be... Regards 234sale Do you mean Jimmy Cautie or Jim Carrie. Know the first but not the second. Very talented and unassuming guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
234SALE Posted November 8, 2007 Author Share Posted November 8, 2007 Do you mean Jimmy Cautie or Jim Carrie. Know the first but not the second. Very talented and unassuming guy. Yep Jim Carrie the comedy actor is a 23 nut too... I also a a member of the church of the subgenius, brighton based seeing that film man of the year also was a bit of a mind bender seeing as I funded the elections in Kemptown and Brighton Pav Fim is about a comedian, called Dobbs who stands for and wins the election Labour Co-op David Lepper 19,846 48.7 −5.9 Conservative David Gold 10,203 25.1 −2.6 Liberal Democrat Ruth Berry 5,348 13.1 +3.6 Green Keith Taylor 3,806 9.3 +6.8 Socialist Labour Ian Fyvie 573 1.4 +1.4 Free Party Bob Dobbs 409 1.0 +1.0 UK Independence Stuart Hutchin 361 0.9 +0.5 ProLife Alliance Marie Paragallo 177 0.4 +0.4 also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia_tal...etion/Bob_Dobbs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigsrenting Posted November 8, 2007 Share Posted November 8, 2007 Yep Jim Carrie the comedy actor is a 23 nut too...I also a a member of the church of the subgenius, brighton based seeing that film man of the year also was a bit of a mind bender seeing as I funded the elections in Kemptown and Brighton Pav Fim is about a comedian, called Dobbs who stands for and wins the election Labour Co-op David Lepper 19,846 48.7 −5.9 Conservative David Gold 10,203 25.1 −2.6 Liberal Democrat Ruth Berry 5,348 13.1 +3.6 Green Keith Taylor 3,806 9.3 +6.8 Socialist Labour Ian Fyvie 573 1.4 +1.4 Free Party Bob Dobbs 409 1.0 +1.0 UK Independence Stuart Hutchin 361 0.9 +0.5 ProLife Alliance Marie Paragallo 177 0.4 +0.4 also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia_tal...etion/Bob_Dobbs Very interesting, I'll look out for the movie and you at the Town Hall next elections. Are you sure your not Jimmy Cauty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
234SALE Posted November 8, 2007 Author Share Posted November 8, 2007 Very interesting, I'll look out for the movie and you at the Town Hall next elections. Are you sure your not Jimmy Cauty http://www.blacksmoke.org/ Never managed to have a beer with Jimmy, I do like his work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigsrenting Posted November 8, 2007 Share Posted November 8, 2007 http://www.blacksmoke.org/Never managed to have a beer with Jimmy, I do like his work Glad you are back on after I had typed it I realised I've been making a few quips like that lately mostly on Brighton thread. Promises to stop. Will look into the 23 more now. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
234SALE Posted November 8, 2007 Author Share Posted November 8, 2007 (edited) Glad you are back on after I had typed it I realised I've been making a few quips like that lately mostly on Brighton thread. Promises to stop. Will look into the 23 more now. Cheers. I cant pm you, seems that you have decided not to recieve pm's just noticed another 23 HPC Poster Group: New Members Posts: 230 Joined: 1-September 07 From: Brighton & Hove Member No.: 10,282 Bull or Bear? Bear Number of post for the next 10 posts will have 23 in them,, see what you have started Edited November 8, 2007 by 234SALE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigsrenting Posted November 8, 2007 Share Posted November 8, 2007 I cant pm you, seems that you have decided not to recieve pm'sjust noticed another 23 HPC Poster Group: New Members Posts: 230 Joined: 1-September 07 From: Brighton & Hove Member No.: 10,282 Bull or Bear? Bear Number of post for the next 10 posts will have 23 in them,, see what you have started Will look at my control panel not sure if I need to be upgraded to receive pm's. Have been wondering what the upgrade was all about. I bet those stamps he did the ones that caused a bit of fuss had 23p on them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
234SALE Posted November 8, 2007 Author Share Posted November 8, 2007 Will look at my control panel not sure if I need to be upgraded to receive pm's. Have been wondering what the upgrade was all about. I bet those stamps he did the ones that caused a bit of fuss had 23p on them. We currently are planning our Hove Actually assault for 2007 New years eve, where I have printed 1000 actually stickers for all of Bright and Hove… The plan is to change every road sign to read Hove Actually Now thats what I call art Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigsrenting Posted November 8, 2007 Share Posted November 8, 2007 We currently are planning our Hove Actually assault for 2007 New years eve, where I have printed 1000 actually stickers for all of Bright and Hove…The plan is to change every road sign to read Hove Actually Now thats what I call art I like it Keep in touch on the Brighton thread. I've just asked for an upgrade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
234SALE Posted November 8, 2007 Author Share Posted November 8, 2007 It was mentioned on the truth about propoerty if I remember correctly. 45% of houses do not have a mortgage according to that programme. I have been trying to find out this info, but it seems hard to collect... I would guess 45% of property, which includeds commercial and retail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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