Rightmove's Stats: -2.6 Is Not Significant

[swankyman]

Hey there,

I just had a look at all the data for the last few years from Rightmove.

here is a graph of the spread of prices changes against month form 2001 to 2007:

GRAPH 1:

2007 is the dashed line

now heres a graph of the average of sept 2001 - sept 2006 (pink) + sept 2006 - sept 2007 (blue)

GRAPH 2:

yes the last months -2.6 is quite a large change but its a bit out of the ordinary (but does look nice)

But if you look at the difference between the average and the sept 2006 - sept 2007 period

GRAPH 3:

its dropping nicely from above average end of last year to a definite negative this year

maybe making too much of the statistics but hey everyone else does, so why not me

edit : blue and pink wrong way round ...

Edited September 14, 2007 by swankyman

[Ethel]

now heres a graph of the average of sept 2001 - sept 2006 (blue) + sept 2006 - sept 2007 (pink)

Surely 2007 is the blue line, as this is the one which finishes on -2.6?

Also, regardless of which is which, your last point of one line (Sep 06) should be the same as the first point on the other line (also Sep 06), but this doesn't apply whichever way round they are.

Am I missing something?

[Minesapint]

What is significant is the timing - with everything else thats happening all this will do is push sentiment over the cliff. It doesnt really matter what the underlying reasons are anymore.

[swankyman]

You are right but the graph is right too.

For example look at the end of the yellow line and the start of the cyan line. They are both the same value

Edited September 14, 2007 by swankyman

[Ethel]

You are right but the graph is right too.

For example look at the end of the yellow line and the start of the cyan line. They are both the same value

Yellow line?

[swankyman]

Yellow line?

Yep they line up on graph 1

Ive badly drawn connecting lines

still bad?

I know the lines are hard to follow but use your finger otherwise

[Discopants]

Looks like there is some sort of a HIP effect.

Surged in April pre HIP rush

Dipped now post HIP blues

But I looked at the stats and all property is down not just the 4 bed stuff so it is still bearish. I think some of the credit bubble sentiment is being reflected here and as we hear at least some BTL landlords are worrying I think at least some of them are smart enough to cash in now.

[Ethel]

Yep they line up on graph 1

Ive badly drawn connecting lines

still bad?

I know the lines are hard to follow but use your finger otherwise

I've been referring to this graph:

[swankyman]

I've been referring to this graph:

Arrrhh I see. No your wrong. Graph two is the average of 2001-2006 and raw data of 2006-2007.

Thus because one is an average and the other the raw value then they don't need to connect at the Sept 2006 point

[Ethel]

Arrrhh I see. No your wrong. Graph two is the average of 2001-2006 and raw data of 2006-2007.

Thus because one is an average and the other the raw value then they don't need to connect at the Sept 2006 point

Ah ok, thank you (finally).