Tories Lash Labour On Housing Crisis

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

http://www.building.co.uk/story.asp?sectio...3090149&c=2

“We don’t believe there’s a housing problem, we believe there’s a housing crisis. If you don’t have access to the bank of mum and dad, you have no chance.”

And then the Tory twit went on to say that he wouldn't clamp down on buy-to-let.

Edited June 29, 2007 by gruffydd

[Benedict]

Doesn't seem an unreasonable proposition, increase the supply enough and BTL profits drop, along with house prices.

I'm a die hard tory, but that seems like the first sensible policy to deal with our massive housing shortage - build more of it. Simple, but effective.

[@contradevian]

Doesn't seem an unreasonable proposition, increase the supply enough and BTL profits drop, along with house prices.

I'm a die hard tory, but that seems like the first sensible policy to deal with our massive housing shortage - build more of it. Simple, but effective.

I'm a die hard Tory I suppose (always voted Tory) however there is a lot of Tory NIMBYism about in the shires which is preventing housing developments.

So if they were going to tackle that, I'd be more impressed.

[sikejsudjek]

I'm a die hard Tory I suppose (always voted Tory) however there is a lot of Tory NIMBYism about in the shires which is preventing housing developments.

So if they were going to tackle that, I'd be more impressed.

Its good that its becoming a political issue, however I wouldn't trust either party to do much about it. Lets see what Broone actually does. 100,000 new homes here or there isn't going to do anything with the mass immigration we have.

[RichM]

If you substantially increased supply of properties, then BTL would collapse on its own - yields would just not be sufficient anymore to sustain the investment.

By the time this happens a combination of IR increases, wider collapse in the market (BTL can't buy up all the property in the UK), and global credit crunch will have brought on a crunch anyway, IMO.

In an ideal world BTL should help in part to reduce rents through the increased investment in building. But I suspect a lot of speculators who will wince at a combination of static rents, static/falling values, and climbing IRs. The BTL sector will give way to larger, more professional firms investing in building and maintaining rented accommodation.

Charging council tax for empty rental property, general regulation, and enforced habitation of long-term empty property (e.g. by council tenants) would help bring a dose of reality to the BTL sector. I really do hope they increase the amount of building in this country though, cheap land will do us all a whole heap of good.

[Guest d23]

I'm a die hard Tory I suppose (always voted Tory) however there is a lot of Tory NIMBYism about in the shires which is preventing housing developments.

So if they were going to tackle that, I'd be more impressed.

tackling lax lending and increasing IR's would be a better tack but not really the biggest vote winner in the world and so imo it's unilkely either party are going to grasp the nettle

If the Tory and Labour response to the housing market is to try and out do each other with how many hundreds of thousands of houses they're going to build in the future then we are in trouble; maybe it would have worked 6 or 7 years ago but seems too late to me now.

UK property market is too far gone to be solved by anything other than a fairly severe correction imo

[MarkG]

UK property market is too far gone to be solved by anything other than a fairly severe correction imo

Indeed. And any government which comes out with a policy of deliberately crashing the property market knows it won't get elected.

So don't expect the Tories to do any more than NuLab.

[RichM]

No one is going to want to be the one who fires the starting pistol.

I guess in a way though NL might decide they can possibly get away with it though. Few think that the last crash was caused by excess credit or a full on bubble - it was naughty Lamont increasing rates or the ERM fiasco.

[frugalista]

Who supports the tory party?

• Bankers
  
• Middle-aged homeowners
  
• The rich
  
• Landlords
  
• Big developers
  
• Nimbys
  

So what chance is there of the tories forcing the building of more houses?

zero

frug.

[RichM]

Who supports the tory party?

• Bankers

• Middle-aged homeowners

• The rich

• Landlords

• Big developers

• Nimbys

So what chance is there of the tories forcing the building of more houses?

zero

How are the Tories ever going to be re-elected?

By getting Joe-public to think they are the genuine party of aspiration. Owning a property is a key goal of the "aspiring" people in this country, and even if they already own somewhere, their children might easily not do so.

The housing issue has now become a political issue, so it's obvious that the focus groups, party activists, etc etc are feeding the higher echelons the news that a large number of people are hacked off with overpriced property. What they do about it is the interesting question.

[The Ayatollah Buggeri]

And then the Tory twit went on to say that he wouldn't clamp down on buy-to-let.

He'd be a twit if he did announce plans to clamp down on BTL. Like Labour, he'll have done the sums. Over 40s are far more likely to vote than under 40s. How many homes are now BTL properties? 10% or thereabouts? That's several million votes waiting to be lost.

No one is going to announce plans to clamp down on BTL. Brown may well try to stealth tax some money out of them, but if he does it'll be because he needs the money rather than through any ideological opposition to BTL.

All the parties who have any realistic chance of getting into power at the next election - both of them, in other words - are going to avoid any talk of 'clamping down' on anyone (except possibly paedophiles and people who oppose unregulated immigration - it's OK to clamp down on them) who has a vote to cast. If the BTL situation doesn't sort itself out through market forces (which, if GC2 happens, it will), then if the social unrest it causes gets to the point at which something has to be done, that something will be an unspectacular mix of new builds, subtle changes to the tax regime and other tweaks to make BTL a gradually less attractive proposition.

Calling someone a twit for not making a turkey-voting-for-Christmas statement is just plain naïve.

[Jimmy2Times]

Who supports the tory party?

• Bankers

• Middle-aged homeowners

• The rich

• Landlords

• Big developers

• Nimbys

So what chance is there of the tories forcing the building of more houses?

zero

frug.

Thats also New Labour main support group, the divide between the rich and the poor is now wider than during any of the Tories reigns. As long as the New Labour keeps getting funding from these groups the Tories haven't got a snow flake in hells chance, the only sand in the vaseline is they must keep an eye on immigration, The Tory or should I say New Labour's rich don't like those types messing up their home counties villages you know.

[frugalista]

How are the Tories ever going to be re-elected?

By getting Joe-public to think they are the genuine party of aspiration. Owning a property is a key goal of the "aspiring" people in this country, and even if they already own somewhere, their children might easily not do so.

The housing issue has now become a political issue, so it's obvious that the focus groups, party activists, etc etc are feeding the higher echelons the news that a large number of people are hacked off with overpriced property. What they do about it is the interesting question.

In the past the tories have been able to win over the lower orders, but although "aspirational" policies have played a part, I rather think their key has been things like:

• immigration

• law and order

• jingoism / nationalism

There may be a few Labour Landlords and Tory Tenants and but the general trend is

tenant = poor = Labour,

landlord / nimby homeowner = rich = Tory.

This dichotomy accounts for the majority of voters in the UK I would guess.

frug.

[MRMX9]

I expect the Tories to promote even more shared ownership. Cameron style Tory councils like Hammersmith and Fulham and Wandsworth are really pushing this big time at the expense of providing social rented accommodation. Owners or shared owners more likely to be Tories those in social rented accommodation more likely to vote Labour - very simple really.

[@contradevian]

In the past the tories have been able to win over the lower orders, but although "aspirational" policies have played a part, I rather think their key has been things like:

• immigration

• law and order

• jingoism / nationalism

There may be a few Labour Landlords and Tory Tenants and but the general trend is

tenant = poor = Labour,

landlord / nimby homeowner = rich = Tory.

This dichotomy accounts for the majority of voters in the UK I would guess.

frug.

I think you are a bit out of date. All the big money switched to New Labour in 1997. Its been a big problem for the Tories ever since.

[Guest X-QUORK]

I've heard nothing from either Labour or the Conservatives that suggests they have anything more than the slightest interest in making homes more affordable and credit more expensive.

The Lib Dems on the other hand seem to be making the right noises. There's much to not like about the Lib Dems, but one can't fault them on the housing issue.

[frugalista]

I think you are a bit out of date. All the big money switched to New Labour in 1997. Its been a big problem for the Tories ever since.

Some big money switched to Labour for sure. But the Tories have still been getting their money and votes from these groups since 1997.

Most current homeowners still think rising house prices are a good thing. The arguments "you won't be able to trade up" and "your kids will be priced out" are more or less valid ones but most people do not see it that way. They think HPI is a good thing.

What percentage of Tory / Labour voters do you think are current homeowners?

I would guess 90% of Tory voters are homeowners, maybe 65% of Labour voters, if that.

So are the Tories going to do anything which has the slightest chance of bringing HPI under control? Nah.

frug.

[frugalista]

I've heard nothing from either Labour or the Conservatives that suggests they have anything more than the slightest interest in making homes more affordable and credit more expensive.

The Lib Dems on the other hand seem to be making the right noises. There's much to not like about the Lib Dems, but one can't fault them on the housing issue.

I actually think that Labour is torn.

On the one hand you have some old-Labour types who have a gut feeling that something has gone terribly wrong in UK housing. On the other hand you have the shameless self-serving BTLers like our erstwhile PM and the expedient Machiavelli types (possibly including Brown) who know that falling house prices would be a risky thing to put in front of Middle-England voters.

You are right, the Lib Dems have been quite outspoken on bringing the debt monster under control -- credit (sic) to them for that.

frug.

Edited June 29, 2007 by frugalista

[EUBanana]

tenant = poor = Labour,

landlord / nimby homeowner = rich = Tory.

This dichotomy accounts for the majority of voters in the UK I would guess.

frug.

I dunno what you are on about, of my half dozen close friends only 1 is a homeowner, and he's a diehard Labourite, all the rest are either living with parents or renting (or at uni still) and they are all Tories.

[Woot]

Doesn't seem an unreasonable proposition, increase the supply enough and BTL profits drop, along with house prices.

I'm a die hard tory, but that seems like the first sensible policy to deal with our massive housing shortage - build more of it. Simple, but effective.

I'm interested to see you reiterate the 'housing shortage' myth again... many VIs have been saying this for a long time, however there are hundreds of thousands of perfectly viable properties standing empty, supposedly accruing capital as investments, or as BTLs that haven't been let, or that are just vacant. Developers are well known to have built properties then left them empty for a time to force up local prices (eg Canary Wharf and other Docklands areas).

Since the boom in requirement for housing in the past 15 years has been driven to a large extent by the breakdown of family units, large family homes are needed less than smaller properties for increasing fragmented family units. Therefore I'd be interested to know how the release of such BTL, investment and developers' properties onto the market would affect this 'shortage'.

TD

[frugalista]

I dunno what you are on about, of my half dozen close friends only 1 is a homeowner, and he's a diehard Labourite, all the rest are either living with parents or renting (or at uni still) and they are all Tories.

But that's a small sample, and more importantly your friends are not representative of the UK electorate, as they are presumably all younger adults.

Probably around 75% of UK voters are over 35, just going on the demographic charts. The majority of these are homeowners. As long as that's the case the Tories won't give a monkeys about your renting friends.

frug.

[Guest X-QUORK]

Cameron is on the record stating that his government would strive to keep base rates low in order that mortgages remain affordable...yes, you guessed it, for Hard Working Families© .

[South Lorne]

I've heard nothing from either Labour or the Conservatives that suggests they have anything more than the slightest interest in making homes more affordable and credit more expensive.

The Lib Dems on the other hand seem to be making the right noises. There's much to not like about the Lib Dems, but one can't fault them on the housing issue.

...what is the Liberal's housing policy....?

There's a whole new generation, who are blaming NuLabour for the fact they can't get into the housing market and will not vote NuLabour.

The current bubble when it bursts will affect everyone and they will blame NuLabour.

There is no viable opposition and accordingly the scene is ripe for extemist minority parties...look at the SNP in Scotland how they have grown in the last few years.....this could be the case in a couple of years in England (not the SNP! ).....the writing is on the wall........

Edited June 29, 2007 by South Lorne

[notthereyet]

Its good that its becoming a political issue, however I wouldn't trust either party to do much about it. Lets see what Broone actually does. 100,000 new homes here or there isn't going to do anything with the mass immigration we have.

They could limit the amount of housing benifit and this would limit BTL and give FTB a chance, At present the system finacialy must be in favour of the BTLer.

[HPC Convert]

I'm a die hard Tory I suppose (always voted Tory) however there is a lot of Tory NIMBYism about in the shires which is preventing housing developments.

So if they were going to tackle that, I'd be more impressed.

There is when it comes to developers knocking down detached houses and trying to put flats or semi detached up and ruining the character of an established road. This country is filled with farmland that is neither especially required, productive or scenic - build on that FFS.