haggis Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Again F**k Them!!!!! All well and good. I do suspect, with reason, that misinformed and innumerate opinions by professionals carry some weight. And that isn't good. The point is, that the ability to analyse the most basic financial transactions is seen as a 'black art'. And it isn't. It's well within the competence of your basic Joe/Jane with a calculator. But the common perception is that it's too difficult. And it isn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavily Armed Gorilla Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Nice post! This is one of the most rational post I've read on here in awhile. Unfortunately the Bulls on this site have trouble when it comes to independence of thought. In the months that I've been on this site I have not heard a rational, thought out explanation as to why house prices will continue to grow at 10% per year or "stagnate". This forum has just confirmed my thoughts on the property market. HPC is not "if" but "when". To be a bull in the property market now is akin to being a bull at the top of the Dot.com boom. All the smart investors got out when they could. The greater fool is left with the bag of bullsh!t. Cheers for the kudos. I think 'not if but when' is right. As has often been said, calling the top of a market is notoriously difficult - I don't even plan to try. However, while watching the strong departure of average prices from average incomes, with an eye on the money supply, mortgage statistics, and historical and current interest rates, it starts to look very much like a bubble. The nearest substitute to property ownership, rental accommodation, seems to be stable, rising broadly with inflation. I've had a brief look at the Miles report: that puts it into perspective better than I can. Assuming it is a bubble, and property prices return to something approaching a rough extrapolation of the long term average, this one looks a lot more worrying than any stock market bubble. The implications for shelter, a basic human requirement, are serious: large increases in repossessions, both by BTL landlords and owner occupiers, will have major social consequences. I fail to see how forced relocation of a significant number of people can't affect the economy as a whole. And for those that survive reposession, the negative equity trap will have major effects on migration in response to any change in labour market conditions. To me, this can only lead to misallocation of labour resources - if we see anything like Miles' likely outcome, the next few years could pose a further problem for the economy. And the tube for guys like myself in London could well get even more crowded and unpleasant in the mornings, assuming people need to travel further as a result Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tenroom Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 (edited) Yes Nathan, i do. BTW - Do you know the women in the third story? Sounds like your type of urban trendy no mark........ Look no one's denying these people have been idiots for over-extending themselves in the way they have. Regardless of the temptations, everyone can still say "no" but now that they ARE in sh*t, does it mean you should derive pleasure from their situation ? If, for example, some of you smoke cigarettes and one day are disagnosed with terminal lung-cancer, would you want some self righteous w***er saying "Yeah ! He was a flamin' idiot. The warnings were there to be seen. He knew the risks. F**k 'im" ? Some folks are simply addicted to spending and can't help themselves and although they shouldn't be given any state assistance or allowed to IVA it, neither should their plight be taken as some sort of perverse pleasure for those of us who can afford to pay a mortgage AND live the high life or those who would like to own a property and blame people like these for keeping the dream beyond their reach especially when there is no mention of when any of these people bought their homes. For all you scumballs know, they might have bought pre-HPI Tossers . . . Edited November 30, 2006 by tenroom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhpc Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 If, for example, some of you smoke cigarettes and one day are disagnosed with terminal lung-cancer, would you want some self righteous w***er saying "Yeah ! He was a flamin' idiot. The warnings were there to be seen. He knew the risks. F**k 'im" ? Yeah, I would actually! Because he'd be damn right. I'm not in D Nile - unlike those of your ilk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Yeah, I would actually! Certainly it's far better than saying "don't worry, here's 100,000 pounds of tax-payers' money for an operation to keep you alive for a few more years despite the damage you've quite deliberately inflicted on yourself". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuB Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 If, for example, some of you smoke cigarettes and one day are disagnosed with terminal lung-cancer, would you want some self righteous w***er saying "Yeah ! He was a flamin' idiot. The warnings were there to be seen. He knew the risks. F**k 'im" ? Hardly a comparison. The fact is these people are 'moaning' about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tensecs Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 All well and good. I do suspect, with reason, that misinformed and innumerate opinions by professionals carry some weight. And that isn't good. The point is, that the ability to analyse the most basic financial transactions is seen as a 'black art'. And it isn't. It's well within the competence of your basic Joe/Jane with a calculator. But the common perception is that it's too difficult. And it isn't. But it is. It does my head in. I simply lack any ability to fortell the future to any degree whatsoever. Compound interest is powerful it might be negated by inflation. Property might crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talksalot81 Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Good point - we are living in an innumerate world, it's not just the (wo)man on the (high)street who lacks financial acumen. It really is a sad situation and it really is one that extends well up the intellectual ladder. When I see posts on forums from people who are desperate to find a 'compound interest calculating excel sheet', I am just astounded. Not only are the things sought often trivially simple, but the people looking often spend much much longer searching than it would have taken to calculate on a piece of paper! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugged bunny Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 (edited) It really is a sad situation and it really is one that extends well up the intellectual ladder. When I see posts on forums from people who are desperate to find a 'compound interest calculating excel sheet', I am just astounded. Not only are the things sought often trivially simple, but the people looking often spend much much longer searching than it would have taken to calculate on a piece of paper! I disagree that it's trivially simple for everyone. I find it trivially simple to come up with a formula for compound interest in a spreadsheet, however that's only because I'm lucky enough to have a strong natural ability in maths. I know a lot of bright people who couldn't come up with the formula because that's not where their intellectual strengths lie - they're missing the maths gene or whatever. [edit for spelling] Edited November 30, 2006 by bugged bunny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tenroom Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Certainly it's far better than saying "don't worry, here's 100,000 pounds of tax-payers' money for an operation to keep you alive for a few more years despite the damage you've quite deliberately inflicted on yourself". Well if all we've evolved into is a cynical, unfeeling bunch of disciplinarians with little or no sympathy for human fallibility or tragedies, then let me say the following . . . "F*KK first-time buyers. Let the gimps RENT of the new BTLers. If they didn't see the way the market was going and hadn't the gumption or the balls to get with the winning team, and get their asses into property they've got no one to blame for their situation other than themselves. My gaff's quintupled in value since I bought it with a crappy little mortgage under £60K and when I flog it to move in with my bird in her 400K Westbourne Grove flat , I'll have paid off what little debt I've got and have a decent 6 figure sum to chuck in the bank . . . or slap some toe-rag wannabe homeowner in the face with." Pleasant, huh ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Carter Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Well if all we've evolved into is a cynical, unfeeling bunch of disciplinarians with little or no sympathy for human fallibility or tragedies, then let me say the following . . . "F*KK first-time buyers. Let the gimps RENT of the new BTLers. If they didn't see the way the market was going and hadn't the gumption or the balls to get with the winning team, and get their asses into property they've got no one to blame for their situation other than themselves. My gaff's quintupled in value since I bought it with a crappy little mortgage under £60K and when I flog it to move in with my bird in her 400K Westbourne Grove flat , I'll have paid off what little debt I've got and have a decent 6 figure sum to chuck in the bank . . . or slap some toe-rag wannabe homeowner in the face with." Pleasant, huh ? LOL! Toys well and truely out of the pram! What a-list celeb will you be rubbing shoulders with in some poncy bar tonight Nathan?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonewer Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 It really is a sad situation and it really is one that extends well up the intellectual ladder. When I see posts on forums from people who are desperate to find a 'compound interest calculating excel sheet', I am just astounded. Not only are the things sought often trivially simple, but the people looking often spend much much longer searching than it would have taken to calculate on a piece of paper! Or just bang in the forumla and make your own spreadsheet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhpc Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 LOL! Toys well and truely out of the pram! What a-list celeb will you be rubbing shoulders with in some poncy bar tonight Nathan?? Played Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tenroom Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 LOL! Toys well and truely out of the pram! What a-list celeb will you be rubbing shoulders with in some poncy bar tonight Nathan?? Certainly one who can spell truly . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talksalot81 Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 I disagree that it's trivially simple for everyone. I find it trivially simple to come up with a formula for compound interest in a spreadsheet, however that's only because I'm lucky enough to have a strong natural ability in maths. I know a lot of bright people who couldn't come up with the formula because that's not where their intellectual strengths lie - they're missing the maths gene or whatever. [edit for spelling] It might not be where their strengths lie - fair enough. However where do you draw the line for the lower limit? If someone cant add 2+2, is that just because that is not where their strength lies? Compound interest is something that is trivial to anyone with the most basic grasp of algebra. Algebra was taught to me in early secondary school. By earliest leaving age (16), every last person in my school had been doing algebra for at least 5 years. I dont think it is too much to expect that every last person should have a basic grasp! Even if you dont think so, you must then come to the conclusion that these same people should be encouraged to keep their mouths shut instead of telling the rest of us about mathematical and statistical matters! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugged bunny Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 (edited) It might not be where their strengths lie - fair enough. However where do you draw the line for the lower limit? If someone cant add 2+2, is that just because that is not where their strength lies? Compound interest is something that is trivial to anyone with the most basic grasp of algebra. Algebra was taught to me in early secondary school. By earliest leaving age (16), every last person in my school had been doing algebra for at least 5 years. I dont think it is too much to expect that every last person should have a basic grasp! Most people don't do any algebra after the age of 16, so it gets rusty! The majority hate maths and those who scrape a pass at GCSE do so by learning to answer formulaic questions in a formulaic fashion without comprehending the underlying mathematical principles. I've tutored GCSE to an arts A-level student retaking maths. She scraped through, but I bet that what little grasp she had of algebra had totally gone a few months down the line, because maths bored her to tears and it was not relevant to the subject she intended to study at university. Too much to expect? I don't expect every educated person to be able to do basic algebra, no. I bet a lot of novelists can't do algebra and I say 'so what'? However, I agree that a much higher numeracy rate is easily achievable, e.g. by banning calculators pre-age 14 in schools. If we could achieve the same numeracy rate that we had in the middle ages, that would be a huge leap forward! Even if you dont think so, you must then come to the conclusion that these same people should be encouraged to keep their mouths shut instead of telling the rest of us about mathematical and statistical matters! Well if someone is mistaken or just making it up as they go along then yes, I think they ought to be set straight. Telling them to keep their mouths shut would be a bit harsh! [edit: grammar] Edited November 30, 2006 by bugged bunny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frugalista Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 I agree that these people are preyed on by the money lenders. However, how do you know that they thought they wouldn't have to pay it back - might there not be some other explanation, i.e. they are missing the 'good at maths' gene, or are insecure or depressed? As well as loose credit we have: - appalling levels of numeracy, partly determined by genetic factors (i.e. pot luck), and for which the education system is highly culpable IMO - powerfully manipulative techniques employed by consumerist VIs who dominate mass culture to make people consume, consume, consume - family dysfunction and lack of emotional support which have increased the incidence of depressive conditions, of which overspending is a well-known symptom Anyone who is genuinely surprised that people really 'are this stupid' is really not very perceptive about human nature and the world we live in. That is a very sensible post, which illustrates that the only way to prevent this mess the next time around is to properly regulate mortgages and consumer credit. frug. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugged bunny Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 That is a very sensible post, which illustrates that the only way to prevent this mess the next time around is to properly regulate mortgages and consumer credit. frug. I agree that we need a lot more regulation in these areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 I agree that we need a lot more regulation in these areas. No, we just need sensible interest rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Look no one's denying these people have been idiots for over-extending themselves in the way they have. Regardless of the temptations, everyone can still say "no" but now that they ARE in sh*t, does it mean you should derive pleasure from their situation? Depends how they come across. If they are people who have been dealt an unexpected blow by life/fate/an uncaring universe, then yes, they deserve sympathy and help. If they are hell-bent on trying to be something they are not, because they've been brainwashed by TV ads and glossy magazines, if they go into something with their eyes open and then whine and moan when the inevitable happens, if they refuse to take responsibility for their own actions, then I'm with Sam, f**k 'em It means we haven't had a holiday for two years - our last holiday was two weeks in Cornwall, staying in a little rented cottage which cost £500 for two weeks Oh the suffering of these poor people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Well if all we've evolved into is a cynical, unfeeling bunch of disciplinarians with little or no sympathy for human fallibility or tragedies, then let me say the following . . . "F*KK first-time buyers. Let the gimps RENT of the new BTLers. If they didn't see the way the market was going and hadn't the gumption or the balls to get with the winning team, and get their asses into property they've got no one to blame for their situation other than themselves. My gaff's quintupled in value since I bought it with a crappy little mortgage under £60K and when I flog it to move in with my bird in her 400K Westbourne Grove flat , I'll have paid off what little debt I've got and have a decent 6 figure sum to chuck in the bank . . . or slap some toe-rag wannabe homeowner in the face with." Pleasant, huh ? Pleasant. You post illustrates the basic idea: If any Daily Mail sheeple "My House Price Doesn't Go Down" nimbies are really arsed about their house price going down, they must make a market call, and decide STR or not. If they don't have the balls to do that, then f**k em - they will accept whatever The Market decides next, and they should shut the f**k up moaning. No, we just need sensible interest rates. That reminds me, we really really really could do with more defaults right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugged bunny Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 No, we just need sensible interest rates. Sensible for businesses and the economy, or sensible for the housing market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Sensible for businesses and the economy, or sensible for the housing market? Um, sensible so that we don't get 14% increase in money supply per year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugged bunny Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Um, sensible so that we don't get 14% increase in money supply per year. Fair enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diddad Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 I say f**k 'em too I'm afraid. There are too many people in this country who have thoughtlessly bought into this ridiculous lifestyle that revolves around 'Hello' magazine/celebrity gossip/celebrity endorsed rampant consumerism. The shops are full of cr*p (Barbie TVs, Calum Best aftershave, Chantelle autobiographies, Jordan jewellery - the tip of a very large iceburg) and people just keep pouring the stuff into their homes. I'll sound like a bit of a luddite here but I have never owned a car, never owned a mobile phone, never owned more than one TV, never owned a computer game. And you know what? I get along absolutely fine, certainly better than all these 1000s of people with houses full of the latest gadgetry - and the bailiffs at the door! The world has gone mad, mad I tell you!!! Well, those rich in consumer goods (cos it makes them feel sooooooooooooo good to shop) and poor in financial wherewithal (cos it's not interesting) are gonna have a few years ahead where they can take the time to dwell on what really matters. Like that woman in the article, she's gonna end up living in a house smaller than she expected and she'll probably find it's a lot better than she ever imagined it could be. Happiness is what matters and it's not found via a credit card. Maybe I'm lucky that when I was 15, 16 (early 1980s) I got into punk (Dead Kennedys, Crass etc etc) and they gave me insight that made me look beyond the headlines, beyond the adverts, beyond the smokescreen of cr*p that covers everything nowadays. It's a scary place to inhabit because we are truly lead by FOOLS who WASTE our lives but it lead me to this website and in this day and age a healthy bit of cynicism is needed rather than 'Dolce And Gabbana Blinkers' ("$325.00 please. American Express? Thank you". Finally, I have made up a rule for myself. I turn over any TV show the moment the word 'Celebrity' is used. Each time I do it I feel greeeeeeeeeeeat! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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