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Us House Price Crash

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It is starting to become generally accepted that an HPC has begun in the US. Will this be the long awaited trigger for the bursting of the UK house price bubble or can UK prices continue their ever upward trend regardless?

I'm very much in the yes camp. US HPC has the potential to cause a global recession with inevitable consequences for the UK. Even if the US economy manages to survive relatively untroubled then the sight of US investors loosing their shirts is going to make the UK investors think twice about the property only ever goes up argument.

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I voted no, much as I'd like it to be.

I believe that a US HPC would not in itself cause a UK HPC. It would be just one of many diverse factors affecting the UK economy.

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I don't think the fact the US bubble has burst will cause the same here.

I do think that the reason the US bubble has burst (rising IR's) are being copied here, and will cause the UK bubble to burst

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Guest mattsta1964

I voted no, much as I'd like it to be.

I believe that a US HPC would not in itself cause a UK HPC. It would be just one of many diverse factors affecting the UK economy.

Blimey! You're a 'Gold Member'!

What does that mean!? I haven't seen that before. Are you some kind of sage? :blink:

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Blimey! You're a 'Gold Member'!

What does that mean!? I haven't seen that before. Are you some kind of sage? :blink:

Austin Powers to the rescue :D

Edit: How do you get custom membership?

Edited by Young Goat

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It is starting to become generally accepted that an HPC has begun in the US. Will this be the long awaited trigger for the bursting of the UK house price bubble or can UK prices continue their ever upward trend regardless?

I'm very much in the yes camp. US HPC has the potential to cause a global recession with inevitable consequences for the UK. Even if the US economy manages to survive relatively untroubled then the sight of US investors loosing their shirts is going to make the UK investors think twice about the property only ever goes up argument.

From today's Mail :

Home slump may batter Uncle Sam

Sam Fleming, City Focus, Daily Mail

1 September 2006

COULD the US housing market pull us into a global recession? Half a decade after the dotcom crash, the American economy is once again on the edge of a precipice, and the effects can be felt from London to Beijing......... snip ......

The global significance of all this is hard to overstate. Fuelled by ultra-low borrowing costs, the US property market has generated more than half the growth in the economy and as much as a third of the new jobs....snip......

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics says: 'For a long time US consumers have been the spenders of last resort and the housing market has been the rock that this is based on.

'If you remove that support you remove an important source of growth in the global economy. The risk is that if US house prices fall precipitously it could have a marked effect on us all.' ......cont........

US homes slump

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Two completely seperate markets?

I can assure you there is only 1 market in the world.

You can buy anything, from anywhere, using anything, all you need to do is trade.

Money buys anything and everything including more money, and anything you spending money on goes up and anything you don't spend money on goes down.

Multiply this by 6 Billion people and you have the world economy, it's all one big market.

If the Japanese suddenly thought Kendal mint cake was fashionable, 6 months later there would be more Ferrari's in Kendal. If Americans stop buying IKEA kitchens the price of IKEA kitchens will fall.

If Asia developed better training and education, the price of skilled labour would fall.

If Asia attracted more business the demand for infrastructure in Asia would increase, the price of construction would increase, the price of raw materials would increase.

Oh, hang on a sec... what was the last one?

Construction boom? Comodities Boom? Do some people think these things just happen out the blue?

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Blimey! You're a 'Gold Member'!

What does that mean!?

;)

Edit: How do you get custom membership?

There used to be a 'Custom Member Title' setting in My Controls but it seems to have been removed :o

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From today's Mail :

US homes slump

so we see not a recession,as the press would have us believe.

We see a transfer of tangible money into wealth sustaining assets.Most of the property market is forged on fake(debt) money,and this debt is now being recalled..

the natural resource supercycle is intact....where the US deteriorates you will see the likes of asia and germany magically resillient to such a downturn.

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Its the old rule: US sneezes and Europe catches a cold.

Different this time? Nope. We are still heavily dependent on the US who are our No. 2 trading partner. Circumstances are identical with oil, inflation, job losses, Asian imports. If there is a difference its the size of the bubble. In the US HPI has been about 20% overall (100-120% in the bubble markets). We are up 300% since Gordon inflicted his Miracle Economy on us all. I would say we have much further to go down than the US.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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