Goat Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 It is starting to become generally accepted that an HPC has begun in the US. Will this be the long awaited trigger for the bursting of the UK house price bubble or can UK prices continue their ever upward trend regardless? I'm very much in the yes camp. US HPC has the potential to cause a global recession with inevitable consequences for the UK. Even if the US economy manages to survive relatively untroubled then the sight of US investors loosing their shirts is going to make the UK investors think twice about the property only ever goes up argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doogie Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 I voted no, much as I'd like it to be. I believe that a US HPC would not in itself cause a UK HPC. It would be just one of many diverse factors affecting the UK economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hairlocks Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 I don't think the fact the US bubble has burst will cause the same here. I do think that the reason the US bubble has burst (rising IR's) are being copied here, and will cause the UK bubble to burst Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Told You So Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 are there enough US investors in the UK to make an impact when they have to sell to bale themselves out back home? Plus most will now stop buying here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsta1964 Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 I voted no, much as I'd like it to be. I believe that a US HPC would not in itself cause a UK HPC. It would be just one of many diverse factors affecting the UK economy. Blimey! You're a 'Gold Member'! What does that mean!? I haven't seen that before. Are you some kind of sage? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted September 1, 2006 Author Share Posted September 1, 2006 (edited) Blimey! You're a 'Gold Member'! What does that mean!? I haven't seen that before. Are you some kind of sage? Austin Powers to the rescue Edit: How do you get custom membership? Edited September 1, 2006 by Young Goat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting Patiently Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 It is starting to become generally accepted that an HPC has begun in the US. Will this be the long awaited trigger for the bursting of the UK house price bubble or can UK prices continue their ever upward trend regardless? I'm very much in the yes camp. US HPC has the potential to cause a global recession with inevitable consequences for the UK. Even if the US economy manages to survive relatively untroubled then the sight of US investors loosing their shirts is going to make the UK investors think twice about the property only ever goes up argument. From today's Mail : Home slump may batter Uncle SamSam Fleming, City Focus, Daily Mail 1 September 2006 COULD the US housing market pull us into a global recession? Half a decade after the dotcom crash, the American economy is once again on the edge of a precipice, and the effects can be felt from London to Beijing......... snip ...... The global significance of all this is hard to overstate. Fuelled by ultra-low borrowing costs, the US property market has generated more than half the growth in the economy and as much as a third of the new jobs....snip...... Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics says: 'For a long time US consumers have been the spenders of last resort and the housing market has been the rock that this is based on. 'If you remove that support you remove an important source of growth in the global economy. The risk is that if US house prices fall precipitously it could have a marked effect on us all.' ......cont........ US homes slump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neitherbullnorbear Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 From today's Mail : US homes slump If people think that a chicken dying in Indo-China is guaranteed to cause a house price crash in the UK, then its a fair bet that they will vote yes for a weakening US housing market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?...! Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Two completely seperate markets? I can assure you there is only 1 market in the world. You can buy anything, from anywhere, using anything, all you need to do is trade. Money buys anything and everything including more money, and anything you spending money on goes up and anything you don't spend money on goes down. Multiply this by 6 Billion people and you have the world economy, it's all one big market. If the Japanese suddenly thought Kendal mint cake was fashionable, 6 months later there would be more Ferrari's in Kendal. If Americans stop buying IKEA kitchens the price of IKEA kitchens will fall. If Asia developed better training and education, the price of skilled labour would fall. If Asia attracted more business the demand for infrastructure in Asia would increase, the price of construction would increase, the price of raw materials would increase. Oh, hang on a sec... what was the last one? Construction boom? Comodities Boom? Do some people think these things just happen out the blue? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doogie Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Blimey! You're a 'Gold Member'! What does that mean!? Edit: How do you get custom membership? There used to be a 'Custom Member Title' setting in My Controls but it seems to have been removed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 From today's Mail : US homes slump so we see not a recession,as the press would have us believe. We see a transfer of tangible money into wealth sustaining assets.Most of the property market is forged on fake(debt) money,and this debt is now being recalled.. the natural resource supercycle is intact....where the US deteriorates you will see the likes of asia and germany magically resillient to such a downturn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Its the old rule: US sneezes and Europe catches a cold. Different this time? Nope. We are still heavily dependent on the US who are our No. 2 trading partner. Circumstances are identical with oil, inflation, job losses, Asian imports. If there is a difference its the size of the bubble. In the US HPI has been about 20% overall (100-120% in the bubble markets). We are up 300% since Gordon inflicted his Miracle Economy on us all. I would say we have much further to go down than the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.