kingofnowhere Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 http://www.housingoutlook.co.uk/Pages/uk.html Abstract: This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent, with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables. Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of adjustment, and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and nominal interest rates. No evidence for a recent bubble is found. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The_Oldie Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 Our Research InterestsWe have extensive knowledge of the UK housing market and its interactions with the rest of the economy, having published many academic papers on the subject as well as having written extensively in the media. We have also acted as consultants for a number of mortgage lenders and other housing market participants. No vested interest there then . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofnowhere Posted March 14, 2006 Author Share Posted March 14, 2006 No vested interest there then . Group think A phenomenon wherein people seek unanimous agreement in spite of contrary facts pointing to another conclusion. One of the signs Stereotyping of out-groups Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntiSpeculator Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 Lol! King of Nowhere- Did you put this together yourself? Even if true, I'm not going to respect anyone who has a website that looks that unprofessional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 Its interesting, because that website has existed for a while, and it was bearish before.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofnowhere Posted March 14, 2006 Author Share Posted March 14, 2006 Lol! King of Nowhere- Did you put this together yourself? Even if true, I'm not going to respect anyone who has a website that looks that unprofessional. Well if you don't believe them, because of the website. Then this one is much better The future of the market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 Some heavy reading for tonight, will comment tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Bussholm Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 http://www.housingoutlook.co.uk/Pages/uk.html Abstract: This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent, with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables. Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of adjustment, and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and nominal interest rates. No evidence for a recent bubble is found. Thanks for the link. Have read it but as far as I can see, no evidence of a comprehensible paper, either. Couldn't understand a word of it. LB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntiSpeculator Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 Well if you don't believe them, because of the website. Then this one is much better The future of the market Ouch! I've gone blind!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Bear Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 "This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003." Note the period covered. There is a reasonably respectable opinion, shared by some bears, that the bubble bit of the explanation didn't kick in until after 2003 or thereabouts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algor Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 Forecasts from the paper if anyone can't be bothered reading it (wouldn't blame you). And for London/south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PostalVote Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 Well if you don't believe them, because of the website. Then this one is much better The future of the market Wow, there's some pure hatred on that site. Would this be the poster formerly known as Bill Gates? Whats his story? Did he buy from a STRer? Does he really have Ass Burgers Syndrome? I am genuinely curious how someone can dedicate that much time to anything so inconsequential. Still, apart from Battlestar in an hour or so, its been the high point of my night. Thanks for the link. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwickshire Lad Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 Well if you don't believe them, because of the website. Then this one is much better The future of the market Since I read that, Bruno has added a lot more. The page I've linked to below had me rolling around on the floor. You have to hand it to him. http://homepages.tesco.net/bruno.powroznik/102.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted March 15, 2006 Share Posted March 15, 2006 (edited) Since I read that, Bruno has added a lot more. The page I've linked to below had me rolling around on the floor. You have to hand it to him. http://homepages.tesco.net/bruno.powroznik/102.htm *grin* the imfamous Mega Bear turn Mega Bull, he really doesnt do half measures.... Edited March 15, 2006 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smell the Fear Posted March 15, 2006 Share Posted March 15, 2006 Since I read that, Bruno has added a lot more. The page I've linked to below had me rolling around on the floor. You have to hand it to him. http://homepages.tesco.net/bruno.powroznik/102.htm Some incredible things in there. "The tendency of the STR to indulge in lots of vaginal intercourse......" "They enjoy consuming plain yogurt, muesli, black coffee and red wine." What is going on in his mind if he considers these to be insults? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted March 15, 2006 Share Posted March 15, 2006 Since I read that, Bruno has added a lot more. The page I've linked to below had me rolling around on the floor. You have to hand it to him. http://homepages.tesco.net/bruno.powroznik/102.htm Sheesh... if you change the page number at the end of the weblink (page 103,104, etc.) it really is quite disturbing. It reminds me of Herbert Lom (sp.?) in the old Pink Panther movies wearing a strait-jacket in a padded cell writing 'Kill Clouseau' with a crayon between his toes. "KILL STRs...KILL STRs..." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted March 15, 2006 Share Posted March 15, 2006 (edited) http://homepages.tesco.net/bruno.powroznik/123.htm Basically says you shouldnt buy now or in the next ten years, bruno orginally talked about a cataclismic economic crash, he is obviously still VERY worried about it, sounds like he sees STRers are the people who will cause this crash. Edited March 15, 2006 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Have finally had a chance to look through this paper. Although it concludes that there is no house price bubble 3 things occur to me: 1. It refers to various other papers that do suggest that there is a bubble. 2. Their methodology appears to rely the effect of nominal interest rates. This is despite the fact that every other study concludes that there is no long term relationship between the two. 3. They ignore the rental sector on the grounds that it is only a small part of the UK housing market. The third point annoys me most. I remain of the opinion that rental yields give a very strong indication of the presence of a bubble. Their approach seems to be rents don't fit our model, let's ignore them. Also the argument that they are a small part of the market is not convincing given that they represent (I think) 10% of uk properties and a much higher percentage of both transaction volumes and (with the demise of FTB's) new money coming into the market. So whilst I accept that it is possible that prices are "fair" I remain unconvinced that this is the case. I will keep waiting until the picture becomes clear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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