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kingofnowhere

No House Price Bubble?

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http://www.housingoutlook.co.uk/Pages/uk.html

Abstract: This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data

model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists

of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions

and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent,

with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables.

Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of

adjustment, and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and

nominal interest rates. No evidence for a recent bubble is found.

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Guest The_Oldie
Our Research Interests

We have extensive knowledge of the UK housing market and its interactions with the rest of the economy, having published many academic papers on the subject as well as having written extensively in the media. We have also acted as consultants for a number of mortgage lenders and other housing market participants.

No vested interest there then :D.

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Lol!

King of Nowhere- Did you put this together yourself?

Even if true, I'm not going to respect anyone who has a website that looks that unprofessional.

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http://www.housingoutlook.co.uk/Pages/uk.html

Abstract: This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data

model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists

of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions

and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent,

with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables.

Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of

adjustment, and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and

nominal interest rates. No evidence for a recent bubble is found.

Thanks for the link. Have read it but as far as I can see, no evidence of a comprehensible paper, either.

Couldn't understand a word of it.

LB

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"This paper investigates the bubbles hypothesis with a dynamic panel data

model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003."

Note the period covered. There is a reasonably respectable opinion, shared by some bears, that the bubble bit of the explanation didn't kick in until after 2003 or thereabouts.

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Forecasts from the paper if anyone can't be bothered reading it (wouldn't blame you).

HPforecast.gif

And for London/south

HPforecast2.gif

post-3397-1142361350.gif

post-3397-1142361511.gif

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Well if you don't believe them, because of the website. Then this one is much better

The future of the market

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Wow, there's some pure hatred on that site. Would this be the poster formerly known as Bill Gates? Whats his story? Did he buy from a STRer? Does he really have Ass Burgers Syndrome? I am genuinely curious how someone can dedicate that much time to anything so inconsequential. Still, apart from Battlestar in an hour or so, its been the high point of my night. Thanks for the link.

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Well if you don't believe them, because of the website. Then this one is much better

The future of the market

Since I read that, Bruno has added a lot more. The page I've linked to below had me rolling around on the floor. You have to hand it to him. :lol:

http://homepages.tesco.net/bruno.powroznik/102.htm

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Since I read that, Bruno has added a lot more. The page I've linked to below had me rolling around on the floor. You have to hand it to him. :lol:

http://homepages.tesco.net/bruno.powroznik/102.htm

Some incredible things in there.

"The tendency of the STR to indulge in lots of vaginal intercourse......"

"They enjoy consuming plain yogurt, muesli, black coffee and red wine."

What is going on in his mind if he considers these to be insults? :lol:

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Since I read that, Bruno has added a lot more. The page I've linked to below had me rolling around on the floor. You have to hand it to him. :lol:

http://homepages.tesco.net/bruno.powroznik/102.htm

Sheesh... if you change the page number at the end of the weblink (page 103,104, etc.) it really is quite disturbing.

It reminds me of Herbert Lom (sp.?) in the old Pink Panther movies wearing a strait-jacket in a padded cell writing 'Kill Clouseau' with a crayon between his toes.

"KILL STRs...KILL STRs..."

:blink:

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Have finally had a chance to look through this paper. Although it concludes that there is no house price bubble 3 things occur to me:

1. It refers to various other papers that do suggest that there is a bubble.

2. Their methodology appears to rely the effect of nominal interest rates. This is despite the fact that every other study concludes that there is no long term relationship between the two.

3. They ignore the rental sector on the grounds that it is only a small part of the UK housing market.

The third point annoys me most.

I remain of the opinion that rental yields give a very strong indication of the presence of a bubble. Their approach seems to be rents don't fit our model, let's ignore them. Also the argument that they are a small part of the market is not convincing given that they represent (I think) 10% of uk properties and a much higher percentage of both transaction volumes and (with the demise of FTB's) new money coming into the market.

So whilst I accept that it is possible that prices are "fair" I remain unconvinced that this is the case. I will keep waiting until the picture becomes clear.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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