Official Uk House Price Index

[Digsby]

It's 14th June which means today is the day that the 1st edition of the all-new Official UK HPI is published. How time flies. It is scheduled for 9:30am, and I think it will be published on this URL:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/announcements/uk-house-price-index-april-2016

[Granit]

Much better index than the old ones and local data (inc financing and buyer type) every month is good. I'll be surprised if we see a national price decline this month because it's April's data and the data behind it isn't wildly different from the others.

[thewig]

"HOUSE PRICES SOAR infinity% Month on Month in new improved index!"

[Digsby]

It's going to be interesting for sure, and also the media coverage. The expectation is that the national average price will sit somewhere between the ONS and the old LR price.

[rantnrave]

Land Registry

@LandRegGov

3m

UK monthly #houseprice rose 0.6% since March 2016, average #propertyprice now £209,054 ow.ly/wlty301cTH3 pic.twitter.com/K78n1dZ9GD

[rantnrave]

Link is here, but I can't get it to open

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-england-april-2016/uk-house-price-index-england-april-2016

[Granit]

Property Status Average price Monthly change Annual change New build £254,604 4.6% 10.2% Existing resold property £205,914 0.3% 8.0%

htb

[Digsby]

Works for me.

I'm surprised PCL is not negative, and I'm surprised the South West is showing existing buildings as 3.2% down on the month, that's an enormous drop.

[Digsby]

There is some interesting information about the index here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/about-the-uk-house-price-index/about-the-uk-house-price-index

Of note:

Whilst the methodology for the new UK HPI has been finalised, further work is taking place to secure additional property attributes data (such as from Scottish Assessors) that will supplement and provide additional assurance to the production process going forward.

(so it's still a work in progress, considered to have an "experimental" status")

A 3 month moving average has been applied to estimates below the regional level to remove some of the volatility in the series.

(as far as I know, the moving average used to be applied at regional and national levels)

In August 2016, we will begin reporting on Repossession data for England and Wales.

(seems slightly odd since they were already reporting that)

[Digsby]

The change has broken my Chrome extension as I suspected it might, as the data is now published on new endpoints. I'll be working on a new version that uses the new index and will hopefully have a release later in the week.

[Granit]

On the experimental status, last I heard they're also trying to get access to EPC database for floor area data which would be a lot better than whatever junk the voa are supplying. It would make a big difference to the accuracy of local data which is all over the place for the smaller LAs, hence the 3mo SMA.

[Granit]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jun/14/newly-launched-land-registry-official-house-price-index-fall-london?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

Grauniad with the worst article on HP indices ever written.

Headline:

Newly launched official house price index shows fall in London

London is up 0.6% from last month and 14% yoy.

[Fully Detached]

The change has broken my Chrome extension as I suspected it might, as the data is now published on new endpoints. I'll be working on a new version that uses the new index and will hopefully have a release later in the week.

Brilliant stuff, thank you. One of the best extensions I have, and very much appreciated.

[Longtermrenter]

HTB Help (yourself) To Bonus. Innit.

[Digsby]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jun/14/newly-launched-land-registry-official-house-price-index-fall-london?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

Grauniad with the worst article on HP indices ever written.

Headline:

London is up 0.6% from last month and 14% yoy.

Obviously a terrible (click-bait) headline, but it's a huge revision.

Surely it can't be a mistake - they couldn't publish such a revision without noticing and investigating whether it's a miscalculation or methodology problem. Could they?

The report (from LR) itself is rubbish and shows little of what's interesting. I hope they will be improving it.

I recommend anyone interested to use the new HPI query tool to get to the nitty gritty. It's a huge improvement over the old one.

I used it to explore the fall in existing properties in the SW I reported above. Weirdly (just one of the many failings) the report doesn't show the overall change in the SW, but I see using the tool that it amounts to about -2.8%. There is only one month (since 1995 anyway) where prices have fallen more in the region, November 2008.

Next months data is going to be very, very interesting.

[Steppenpig]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jun/14/newly-launched-land-registry-official-house-price-index-fall-london?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

Grauniad with the worst article on HP indices ever written.

Headline:

London is up 0.6% from last month and 14% yoy.

They seem to have altered it.

New official house price index reveals falls in oil industry areas

UK House Price Index shows price drops in Aberdeen and Orkneys in year to April, while Slough and parts of east London score biggest rises

Edited June 14, 2016 by Steppenpig

[Digsby]

Brilliant stuff, thank you. One of the best extensions I have, and very much appreciated.

I'm glad to have a happy customer. I've done the work, it was only a 30 min job, but I need to spend more time testing.

I'm not going to introduce the more local data for the moment, the plan is to just have it working initially, and then explore what's new and how it can be used and presented.

During the testing (which amounts to using it and double checking the numbers) I've done so far, it does feel like this index is more representative of reality - the number of cases where the asking price is within about 5% of the estimate is up a lot.

Still a large number of kite flyers being flagged up as you'd expect.

[Granit]

Obviously a terrible (click-bait) headline, but it's a huge revision.

Surely it can't be a mistake - they couldn't publish such a revision without noticing and investigating whether it's a miscalculation or methodology problem. Could they?

The report (from LR) itself is rubbish and shows little of what's interesting. I hope they will be improving it.

I recommend anyone interested to use the new HPI query tool to get to the nitty gritty. It's a huge improvement over the old one.

I used it to explore the fall in existing properties in the SW I reported above. Weirdly (just one of the many failings) the report doesn't show the overall change in the SW, but I see using the tool that it amounts to about -2.8%. There is only one month (since 1995 anyway) where prices have fallen more in the region, November 2008.

Next months data is going to be very, very interesting.

I don't think it's a mistake either, my guess is that somehow they must have been overweighting high end houses in the old methodology. It's closer to the nationwide index now which I always assumed was more accurate. I have more faith in this index than either the old ONS or LR.

Agreed that the new data is great. Interestingly, the seasonally adjusted data (which they don't seem to be using anywhere) is showing (modest) falls nearly everywhere this month, even in London.

[Granit]

They seem to have altered it.

Oh wow it's a completely different article. The premise of the old article was that London prices were "down" because the old index was a larger number than the new index.