Ssi Redcar Steel, Paused Production 2,200 Fear Job Losses

[dances with sheeple]

Time for a "Victim Dance"

[dances with sheeple]

Time for a "Victim Dance"

That`s me at the front pondering the poor souls in Aberdeen who only wanted 10 BTL`s each for them and all their family members.

Edited September 30, 2015 by dances with sheeple

[PopGun]

Always a pleasure Venger ?

[frozen_out]

It's true. On plenty of occasions had stick against those who sing HPI and sing excuses for debtors.

Doesn't make any of you correct though, and I have challenged your claims.

Correct about what?

[PopGun]

Correct about what?

Leave it, he's got a lot more time on his hands than you have, and years of HPC back catalogue to selectively cut & paste from.

[frozen_out]

Leave it, he's got a lot more time on his hands than you have, and years of HPC back catalogue to selectively cut & paste from.

I'd noticed.

Edited October 1, 2015 by frozen_out

[Venger]

Yes, time to challenge this thinking, and so many other such posts.

Getting a mortgage is not difficult. I've just recently remortgaged and due to a piece of bad luck (basically an oversight by NatWest that they refuse to acknowledge) I've recently had a default go on my credit record. I thought that would be it, remortgaging impossible, but no. Still managed to get a 5 year fix at under 3%.

Friend of mine has just had a 350k mortgage approved on a joint salary of 80k.

You can get a 10 year fix at less than 3.5% with a fairly moderate LTV. It's not that bad a time to buy in most places.

Assuming that banks maintain the spread between the base rate and retail rate then if interest rates increase to 5% you would expect a 10 year fix to be about 8%. That means that prices have to fall by more than 1/3rd to make it cheaper to buy than it is now.

And you've got the additional rent on top to pay whilst you're waiting.

So yeah, banks might welcome a HPC to start making money on currently mortgage free property, but they're not going to lend at stupidly low rates on low priced property are they? or that would be defying the point somewhat.

So what to do? You could sit it out waiting for carnage, but you can't smugly pretend that you're not taking a risk at least as equally large as buying in the current climate in most places of the UK.

Nope, still there. 2 10 year fixed IO available at 2.99%. Worth doing if you think that inflation will be let rip and house prices will be inflated away to nothing at some point in the next ten years.

And PopGun... you're all chilled with the situation and house prices, so relax. Remember, bears have lost / stopped giving a toss / moved on with their lives / become accustomed to the HPI situation (and all the excuses/sympathy from you those who bid up prices)

imo it's pointless in repossessing enmass as the only people most likely to be in the position to buy will be the BTL brigade.

Are the BTLers set to buy it all up now frozen_out what with the tax-relief changes? Fergus Wilson's video today talks about the move putting new BTLers right off the market. Re your newbuild seller Mum triggering this...

My first genuine internet stalker! That's some trawling Venger, Well done.

I did give you the benefit of doubt thinking you were one of the remaining HPC Bear dinosaurs, who sees everything as black and white. However your hasty cut and paste job has sadly confirmed yourself as the fanatical crazed loon.

Despite myself being as bearish as they came, drooling at the prospect of reality presenting 40% plus nominal drops, I'm afraid over the last 10 years I've slowly realized reality isn't playing ball. Must posters on here have reluctantly accepted this and adapted their outlooks (or simply moved on/stopped giving a toss). However every pub has that crazed nutter on his own in the corner, warning everyone that the commies are coming.

Stubbornous isn't a virtue, especially when reality and basic economics are kicking your backside.

If you can't/refuse to accept that 2008 was also a bail out for savers, and/or recognize the implications of what you're championing for, then good luck to you. We're either with you or against you eh Venger?! It seems to be that simple in your world.

[frozen_out]

You're not making any sense. At all.

Just a load of random out of context quotes. And forgetting that reality, right now, is still on my side.

If houses do fall 90% with no wider economic implications (this is what you're expecting, isn't it?) Unless it's legislated against I'll buy 10.

[Venger]

You're not making any sense. At all.

Just a load of random out of context quotes. And forgetting that reality, right now, is still on my side.

If houses do fall 90% with no wider economic implications (this is what you're expecting, isn't it?) Unless it's legislated against I'll buy 10.

With your affected credit history and existing mortgage?

Yes you go buy 10. Just what we want to read on HPC. Tells me all I need to know. Keep pushing it and you revealed yourself.

[PopGun]

And people wonder why this site gets dismissed as a refuge for nutters and slavering rant bags...

[Venger]

Yet you come back to it PopGun, and you chose to engage me.

Dismissed by who? HPIers, HPI forevers, complacent owners, BTLers and trolls.

You're the one who has peddling the view that we've given up on HPC and 'moved on with our lives' / 'stopped giving a toss' about the housing market.

I report to many other renter-savers positioned for hpc, who work demanding hours, information gleaned on HPC. Not everyone has moved on / stopped giving a toss, about these house prices.

Refuge for nutters and rant bags? Who are they? People with big mortgages claiming "It's not a bad time to buy in most areas" and musing on debt being inflated away, and that if there was an unlikely HPC, they would choose to buy up lots of houses?

[frozen_out]

With your affected credit history and existing mortgage?

Yes you go buy 10. Just what we want to read on HPC. Tells me all I need to know. Keep pushing it and you revealed yourself.

What affected credit history? You're expecting no wider economic impact remember??? Why would my credit history be affected?

In your scenario I could buy properties with an unsecured loan!!!

[Venger]

Getting a mortgage is not difficult. I've just recently remortgaged and due to a piece of bad luck (basically an oversight by NatWest that they refuse to acknowledge) I've recently had a default go on my credit record. I thought that would be it, remortgaging impossible, but no. Still managed to get a 5 year fix at under 3%.

Friend of mine has just had a 350k mortgage approved on a joint salary of 80k.

As for getting houses on loans, don't know what you're referring to. I suspect you will need good credit even into a deep HPC, but that lower prices is less risk for the lenders. That you come back about buying 10 properties in a HPC... good for you.

I just raised prospect of prices being affected Redcar way, whereas in surrounding wider area you have previously been suggesting it's not a bad time to buy 'in most places' - and placing a lot of risk on those of us choosing to wait.

[frozen_out]

Refuge for nutters and rant bags? Who are they? People with big mortgages claiming "It's not a bad time to buy in most areas" and musing on debt being inflated away, and that if there was an unlikely HPC, they would choose to buy up lots of houses?

I don't have a big mortgage. It currently stands at the princely sum of 2.6x my salary, and my equity is building every day.

Someone else was musing on debt being inflated away and subsequent high interest rates. I merely pointed out that if that is going to be the case over a relatively short timescale the fill your boots with a sub 3% 10 year fix.

You misquote and quote out of context all the time. The graph on the front page shows a few things:

1. The long term trend in house prices is meaningless, at any moment in time you're winning or losing so its best not to worry about it.

2. Homeowners spend more time winning than losing

3. Anyone who has been sat out for any significant portion of the last 15 years now needs a collapse that will take the rest of the economy with it to get ahead

Refute that all you like, but the numbers back it up. And if the collapse doesn't take the rest of the economy with it then the homeowners/mortgaged win again. It's a double lock.

[frozen_out]

As for getting houses on loans, don't know what you're referring to. I suspect you will need good credit even into a deep HPC, but that lower prices is less risk for the lenders. That you come back about buying 10 properties in a HPC... good for you.

I just raised prospect of prices being affected Redcar way, whereas in surrounding wider area you have previously been suggesting it's not a bad time to buy 'in most places' - and placing a lot of risk on those of us choosing to wait.

Settled defaults are pretty much ignored after 12 months. It was an extraordinarily bad piece of timing. Months earlier or months later and it wouldn't have mattered. Even still, 90% crash with no wider economic implications is enough to make me think about changing the assert class of my savings.

[Venger]

3. Anyone who has been sat out for any significant portion of the last 15 years now needs a collapse that will take the rest of the economy with it to get ahead

Refute that all you like, but the numbers back it up. And if the collapse doesn't take the rest of the economy with it then the homeowners/mortgaged win again. It's a double lock.

A pal of mine is interested in buying the company where he's Managing Director (with a low-level equity stake) off the woman who inherited on death of her relative, into a HPC. Positioning for it.

It's one of my focuses too. A few little pukka businesses could come to market, from companies that have over-expanded in the boom. I see Glencore has been suggesting its looking for buyers of its agricultural division (although of course that's high order, not for smaller market participants, for its still worth fortunes).

So my hope is we end up with more market participants owning a greater and fairer slice of things, in a hpc/recession. It's not all doom and gloom.

All this hpc taking the economy with it, is very far-fetched in my view. Although it tends to reassure those on the HPI side of things.

[frozen_out]

All this hpc taking the economy with it, is very far-fetched in my view. Although it tends to reassure those on the HPI side of things.

Have you ever heard of 2008? You know...that year when we were on the cusp of a full-on reset to zero and tanks on the streets. Yeah, that one. That's what I'm talking about. What's it called now? Oh yeah, reality.

House prices aren't the main course, they're a mere side dish.

[Venger]

VI/Brown spin, and only because the banks couldn't handle a correction at the time - being people just like many owners, carried way by forever HPI/boom.

Different circumstances now.

Three Truths for Finance - speech by Mark Carney

Remarks given at the Harvard Club UK Southwark Cathedral dinner, London.
21 September 2015

[...]Moreover, when next time proves no different, the financial intermediaries at the core of the system will be on a substantially stronger footing. Their capital requirements have already increased ten-fold and their liquid assets are up four-fold. Their trading assets are down by a third and intra-bank exposures by two-thirds.

http://www.bankofeng...s/2015/843.aspx

Last UK bank stress test http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30491161

Your double lock on house and house prices can be picked open.

Edited October 1, 2015 by Venger

[frozen_out]

VI/Brown spin, and only because the banks couldn't handle a correction at the time - being people just like many owners, carried way by forever HPI/boom.

Different circumstances now.

Last UK bank stress test http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30491161

Your double lock on house and house prices can be picked open.

Oh, everything's OK then. My house price might drop, but many people's equity can handle it and the banks can handle it, and the wider economy can handle it so there'll be no big recession/lay-offs/associated repos.

All that will happen is you get a house cheaper than you do today and you might come out marginally ahead after renting for many years.

I think we can all sleep soundly tonight, homeowners, mortgagees and renters alike, can't we?

Edited October 1, 2015 by frozen_out

[frozen_out]

BTW...

You're misquoting/misrepresenting again. I never claimed a double lock on house prices.

[Venger]

It was close enough. Double-lock preventing longer-term renter-savers getting significantly better value? Is that better?

Ie with all your HPC 'taking economy with it' Also some renter savers have 'got on with their lives' during HPI, and saved. It's not just about getting ahead either, it's personal circumstances. I don't mind if values fall further after I buy at a price which is right for me. Hopefully younger generations coming through will have more opportunity, into a HPC, buying off distressed landlords at much lower prices than today without the wait.

The graph on the front page shows a few things:

1. The long term trend in house prices is meaningless, at any moment in time you're winning or losing so its best not to worry about it.

2. Homeowners spend more time winning than losing

3. Anyone who has been sat out for any significant portion of the last 15 years now needs a collapse that will take the rest of the economy with it to get ahead

Refute that all you like, but the numbers back it up. And if the collapse doesn't take the rest of the economy with it then the homeowners/mortgaged win again. It's a double lock.

Oh, everything's OK then. My house price might drop, but many people's equity can handle it and the banks can handle it, and the wider economy can handle it so there'll be no big recession/lay-offs/associated repos.

All that will happen is you get a house cheaper than you do today and you might come out marginally ahead after renting for many years.

I think we can all sleep soundly tonight, homeowners, mortgagees and renters alike, can't we?

No; it will bite some, including perhaps those who think they will be buying 10 houses into a HPC, already carrying a mortgage.

[frozen_out]

It was close enough. Double-lock preventing longer-term renter-savers getting significantly better value? Is that better?

Nope, still not it.

Ie with all your HPC 'taking economy with it' Also some renter savers have 'got on with their lives' during HPI, and saved. It's not just about getting ahead either, it's personal circumstances. I don't mind if values fall further after I buy at a price which is right for me. Hopefully younger generations coming through will have more opportunity, into a HPC, buying off distressed landlords at much lower prices than today without the wait.

Yeah, that's what I said.

No; it will bite some, including perhaps those who think they will be buying 10 houses into a HPC, already carrying a mortgage.

It will bite some? How? under what circumstances? You're completely and utterly incoherent.

[Venger]

BTLers who have over-extended, into a HPC or calls on their positions via lenders. So many market participants who have put claims on too many resources via debt.

In many ways that are opposite of 'It's not a bad time to buy in most places'. Where having savings / low debt is a good thing, and not the big risk that many on the homeowner and BTL side think it is. You have to expect me to hold this position on a forum called housepricecrash, although I'm not going to set out each and every way deleveraging in the economy shakes out malinvested positions.

You can get a 10 year fix at less than 3.5% with a fairly moderate LTV. It's not that bad a time to buy in most places.

Assuming that banks maintain the spread between the base rate and retail rate then if interest rates increase to 5% you would expect a 10 year fix to be about 8%. That means that prices have to fall by more than 1/3rd to make it cheaper to buy than it is now.

And you've got the additional rent on top to pay whilst you're waiting.

So yeah, banks might welcome a HPC to start making money on currently mortgage free property, but they're not going to lend at stupidly low rates on low priced property are they? or that would be defying the point somewhat.

So what to do? You could sit it out waiting for carnage, but you can't smugly pretend that you're not taking a risk at least as equally large as buying in the current climate in most places of the UK.

I suggest just a few more £million on welfare budget adds up.

As for how steel in Redcar affects prices in Yarm, didn't make a difference last time the steel works closed and it probably won't this time.

Ingleby Barwick maybe. Loftus deffo.

Yarm is propped up by the edububble and public sector spending.

At best prices in Yarm will go nowhere. Probably large falls.

Steel works closing will not affect house prices locally short term. Either in Redcar or Yarm. It's just another few mill. On the welfare budget. A piss in the ocean really.

Edited October 1, 2015 by Venger

[frozen_out]

I suggest just a few more £million on welfare budget adds up.

Adds up to what?

[Venger]

Adds up to more pressure in the economy, and perhaps on house prices, in your general area 'piss in the ocean' of red-ink debts.

Markets move at the margin.