Is The Crash Is Over In Northern Ireland? Have We Have Reached (And Passed) The Bottom?

[Sure thing!]

I think you're right. Probably a lot of buyers who have been waiting since 2007. Makes it easy for EAs to sell when so little supply in these areas and general consensus is crash over, come on in the waters lovely....

Think ill wait for a while yet. I'm still net bear.

Seeing the same here, lower end of market is selling well and at the middle upper end theres stuff selling but mostly just the good or the cheap but it was completely stagnant until this year.

Guessing a lot of people that have been hanging fire may be thinking the worst is over and getting on with life with a limited downside vs "get in its going to the moon" thinking. If there is a significant crowd that have been sitting on their hands for a few years years building up decent deposits, what happens when they have all bought

Still waiting on the right house and expected to buy this year, just not seen the one..

[Bergy100]

Some crazy asking prices still being uploaded to Property Pal. Depressing fare.

[sophia]

what happens when they have all bought

The dead cat bounce?

[BelfastVI]

The dead cat bounce?

died quite a while ago. RIP

[carrick01]

I think that unless there is some other shock to the financial system we have reached the bottom for the next 2 years anyway. Don't think there will be any interest rise for the next two years - which means the saving rate will still be abysmal - this is bringing back people into the housing market that think this is the only way to make a decent return - think this is deliberate government policy. Houses in the lower end seem to be attracting enough people to prevent any further falls. Area that have always been interested in, at the start of the year had plenty of semi detatched properties (<£250k) on the market for years now has none. Any that does come on get sale agreed quickly and above the asking price. I could only afford to buy a house in the area if I got a mortgage 4 times my income - which from checking most of the bank websites - most banks would still do - but i wouldn't.

[BelfastVI]

Don't think the crash is over yet. Wrongly priced houses are still hanging about reducing gradually

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure-property-stats?p=PNC659059&SearchID=241244599&page=1

I'm sure there are many examples of houses still falling as it is only the average of the last 10,000 sales that is rising, not every single one.

[Shotoflight]

I'm sure there are many examples of houses still falling as it is only the average of the last 10,000 sales that is rising, not every single one.

They must be coming on at higher prices (and selling), though I have noticed about 3 (out of hundreds) upping their price - after months of not selling. Not sure how productive a strategy this will prove.

To me, Ramsay's figures suggest it can still be hard to sell a house - especially if overpriced.

Up to 25% of all mortgages in NE - 35% from 2005

Home movers at 1974 levels - -68% from 2006

Remortgages -86%

New house sales -86% from 2006 and still falling

All transactions down 68%

30% cash sales

Value of property transactions down 80%

Student debt & pending interest rate rises get a mention

Median private sector wages down 20%

Ramsay also suggests, going by swap rates, the bottom of the interest rate cycle has been and gone and that there will be a reduction in 'household forming' groups in the near future

[BelfastVI]

They must be coming on at higher prices (and selling), though I have noticed about 3 (out of hundreds) upping their price - after months of not selling. Not sure how productive a strategy this will prove.

To me, Ramsay's figures suggest it can still be hard to sell a house - especially if overpriced.

Up to 25% of all mortgages in NE - 35% from 2005

Home movers at 1974 levels - -68% from 2006

Remortgages -86%

New house sales -86% from 2006 and still falling

All transactions down 68%

30% cash sales

Value of property transactions down 80%

Student debt & pending interest rate rises get a mention

Median private sector wages down 20%

Ramsay also suggests, going by swap rates, the bottom of the interest rate cycle has been and gone and that there will be a reduction in 'household forming' groups in the near future

Everything down apart from price and volume.

[Shotoflight]

Everything down apart from price and volume.

Not in his timeframe.

[ravedave]

From what I'm seeing, things in Central/South Belfast are selling very quickly.

Think I missed the bottom, and there seems to be a steady supply of people willing to pay a lot to live in those areas.

Seeing the same too. Unfortuately there seems to be demand for houses in these areas. Although, the ones I've viewed have have mostly had negative points which were not offset by the price. They still seem to be a bit high for what they are.

[Shotoflight]

NORTHERN IRELAND HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY? – YOU’RE JOKING

vested interest?

http://www.bellcomp.co.uk/northern-ireland-housing-market-improvement-youre-joking

We hear a lot of optimistic individuals in Belfast claiming the Northern Ireland housing market is “recovering”. Recovering is definitely not the term, improving maybe. Recent figures from Debt Action NI however suggest throughout Northern Ireland there has been a 24% increase since 2013 of borrowers falling into negative equity and mortgage shortfall debt.

Mortgage shortfall debt is now at £44 million across Northern Ireland.

Alarming statistics, particularly for those with their heads in the clouds suggesting recovery.

Further concerns have been raised as a poll conducted suggested 68% of home owners in Northern Ireland will be unable to meet their mortgage repayments when interest rates rise. I’m afraid it is not case of “if” interest rates will raise but “when” with The Bank of England marking the third quarter next year for a rate rise.

With 41% of homeowners in Negative Equity and Northern Ireland accounting for 56,034 out of 120,511 UK Properties with Mortgage Shortfall debt, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders figures, this is an Economic and Social time bomb which does seem to pass under the nose of Politicians all too often.

[2buyornot2buy]

(With 41% of homeowners in Negative Equity and Northern Ireland accounting for 56,034 out of 120,511 UK Properties with Mortgage Shortfall debt, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders figures, this is an Economic and Social time bomb which does seem to pass under the nose of Politicians all too often.)

No doubt the politicians will pass another fantasy budget to cover the shortfall for the "needy"

Too busy passing brown evelopes to pass any budgets by the looks of things.

[Shotoflight]

UK housing market waking up, says CML

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33519370

The ONS figures showed that, in the year to May, house prices in England rose by 5.8%, in Scotland they climbed 2.9%, and prices were 2.5% higher in Wales.

However, the biggest increase came in Northern Ireland where prices increased by 10.5%.

[Sure thing!]

UK housing market waking up, says CML

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33519370

The ONS figures showed that, in the year to May, house prices in England rose by 5.8%, in Scotland they climbed 2.9%, and prices were 2.5% higher in Wales.

However, the biggest increase came in Northern Ireland where prices increased by 10.5%.

Is this just a "recovery" based on increased activity from the absolute bottom where prices undershot? Things are better than they were but they are not exactly flying off the shelf in this area and no obvious increases in prices over the past couple of years to speak of. The cheap repo stuff seems to have vanished though so I wonder does the now not so obvious gap between the distressed sales and normal sales account for some of this?

A 10% change report would have had pages of responses in years gone by here, I guess that says something about the topic.

[yadayada]

Could be because nobody really believes it. Effectively, if accurate, that would mean a 10% rise since 2002. Don't panic.

[BelfastVI]

I think that is all the reports showing a 5% to 10% increase pa over the last year or so. I think it is slightly exaggerated due to the low averages from the auction sales a year or so ago. I think we are looking at growth of 5% pa, which is plenty and indeed nothing to panic about. As Ramsey says there are still plenty of head winds out there to keep a lid on this.