okaycuckoo Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Interesting blog post by physicist/economist, with long comments section: "Anyway, it's looking more and more likely that conservatives are going to wake up one day soon, and look around and blink and find that one of their bedrock beliefs has suddenly been invalidated on a grand scale. If they're smart, conservatives will take this opportunity to discard the old belief that solar is the thin wedge of crypto-socialism, and recognize it for what it truly is - a breakthrough technology, being developed by entrepreneurs for profit on the free market. In other words, exactly the kind of thing they should applaud." http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/solar-its-about-to-be-whole-new-world.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Interesting blog post by physicist/economist, with long comments section: "Anyway, it's looking more and more likely that conservatives are going to wake up one day soon, and look around and blink and find that one of their bedrock beliefs has suddenly been invalidated on a grand scale. If they're smart, conservatives will take this opportunity to discard the old belief that solar is the thin wedge of crypto-socialism, and recognize it for what it truly is - a breakthrough technology, being developed by entrepreneurs for profit on the free market. In other words, exactly the kind of thing they should applaud." http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/solar-its-about-to-be-whole-new-world.html I presume that "old belief" is the belief from a few months ago where governments were subsidising the industry left right and centre. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 I presume that "old belief" is the belief from a few months ago where governments were subsidising the industry left right and centre. Solyndra was a big deal in the US. Anyone got thoughts on the reality of this, on investment? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Solyndra was a big deal in the US. Anyone got thoughts on the reality of this, on investment? Solar is an incredible investment at current prices, in fact I think the next few weeks are likely to be the best time ever to invest in Solar PV. It will be a short window because we are already being warned of impending price rises in equipment with the Euro strengthening against the pound. Also possibly as early as March the EU may impose anti dumping taxes on Chinese panels. Combine this with the last of the dumping of panels from wholesalers that went bust last year and it is quite possible we have seen the last of the deflation for solar PV. The Chinese have been subsidising Solar PV by billions and we have benefited from massive falls in panel prices. Some panels we were using 3 years ago are 1/3 of the price I can get them today. The prices we are currently quoting at would lead to a 12% return and 8 year payback WITHOUT A FEED IN TARIFF based on a good quality £6k 4kWp system, south facing roof in SW and using all the energy produced in the home. With the FIT 6 year payback is achievable with the scheme running for 20 years. Returns are better than in the boom two years ago but most people think solar is dead.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuG III Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Solar is an incredible investment at current prices, in fact I think the next few weeks are likely to be the best time ever to invest in Solar PV. It will be a short window because we are already being warned of impending price rises in equipment with the Euro strengthening against the pound. Also possibly as early as March the EU may impose anti dumping taxes on Chinese panels. Combine this with the last of the dumping of panels from wholesalers that went bust last year and it is quite possible we have seen the last of the deflation for solar PV. The Chinese have been subsidising Solar PV by billions and we have benefited from massive falls in panel prices. Some panels we were using 3 years ago are 1/3 of the price I can get them today. The prices we are currently quoting at would lead to a 12% return and 8 year payback WITHOUT A FEED IN TARIFF based on a good quality £6k 4kWp system, south facing roof in SW and using all the energy produced in the home. With the FIT 6 year payback is achievable with the scheme running for 20 years. Returns are better than in the boom two years ago but most people think solar is dead.... Not that you have a vested interest or anything..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not that you have a vested interest or anything..... I have a huge vested interest but being a small local company carrying out 90% of our work in a 20 miles radius of base it is not exactly going to have an impact on my business! My post was a genuine attempt to help fellow HPC (see my forum history, I am not a shill with 100 post to my name) Having worked in the industry I am staggered at how far solar has come over the last few years and wanted to share my take on the current pricing of solar as a previous poster was interested in PV as an investment, I nearly put "do you own research" but it was quite clear in my post I have a vested interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 (edited) I have a huge vested interest but being a small local company carrying out 90% of our work in a 20 miles radius of base it is not exactly going to have an impact on my business! My post was a genuine attempt to help fellow HPC (see my forum history, I am not a shill with 100 post to my name) Having worked in the industry I am staggered at how far solar has come over the last few years and wanted to share my take on the current pricing of solar as a previous poster was interested in PV as an investment, I nearly put "do you own research" but it was quite clear in my post I have a vested interest. Looking at it at the moment. Just a year ago, looking at the figs, installed cost (as you say) has dropped a lot as the panel price has dropped (the panel price being 50% of the all up cost roughly at the time). 4KW systems quoted (5 of them ranging from 11,600 to 13,100) were coming in around £12k average. http://www.navitron.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=14886.0 Think you could be right about a sweet spot in the timing, looking at it myself, probably self install. 16x245 MCS approved (but cheapo chinese) panels £2.5K, £600 odd for the Grid tie inverter plus bits. Something like a 5 year payback all in roughly (without FITS) The only fly in the sweet spot argument is if there are rapid increases in efficiency from new tech, this would take ages to get to volue, be priced accordingly although could make the install part cheaper due to size/efficiency but not so important for self install. Edited January 30, 2013 by OnlyMe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Good article - thank you. Some panels we were using 3 years ago are 1/3 of the price I can get them today. The prices we are currently quoting at would lead to a 12% return and 8 year payback WITHOUT A FEED IN TARIFF based on a good quality £6k 4kWp system, south facing roof in SW and using all the energy produced in the home. Interesting... do you have some details? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easy2012 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Solar is an incredible investment at current prices, in fact I think the next few weeks are likely to be the best time ever to invest in Solar PV. It will be a short window because we are already being warned of impending price rises in equipment with the Euro strengthening against the pound. Also possibly as early as March the EU may impose anti dumping taxes on Chinese panels. Combine this with the last of the dumping of panels from wholesalers that went bust last year and it is quite possible we have seen the last of the deflation for solar PV. The Chinese have been subsidising Solar PV by billions and we have benefited from massive falls in panel prices. Some panels we were using 3 years ago are 1/3 of the price I can get them today. The prices we are currently quoting at would lead to a 12% return and 8 year payback WITHOUT A FEED IN TARIFF based on a good quality £6k 4kWp system, south facing roof in SW and using all the energy produced in the home. With the FIT 6 year payback is achievable with the scheme running for 20 years. Returns are better than in the boom two years ago but most people think solar is dead.... £6k for 4kwp (full system?) seemd pretty good price but without FIT, it only pays back if there is heavy electricity usage in the house (electrical cooker, people in most days). The return is normally about £200 worth of electricity, so that is still forever without FIT as excess electricity cannot be economically stored at the moment. With FIT, this seemed sensible though, £6k, annual payback around £900, around 7 years payback, which is actually better than those system installed just before the FIT cut in % term (although this only last for 20 rather than 25 years now) So, can't really see how this will be economical without subsidy in UK (will obviously work well in countries with plenty of sun like Spain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looking at it at the moment. Think you could be right about a sweet spot in the timing, looking at it myself, probably self install. 16x245 MCS approved (but cheapo chinese) panels £2.5K, £600 odd for the Grid tie inverter plus bits. Something like a 5 year payback all in roughly (without FITS) Good on you for looking at self install, remove the installation element and as you point out PV performance is being seriously under appreciated atm, it is almost as if our utility companies have seen the success in Germany and decided that they do not want to relinquish their profits without a fight. Like many things you get what you pay for in terms of build quality but the cells are largely the same and we are currently finding the performance of Chinese vs other panels is that they are performing equally as well. This may not last but if you stick with the better quality tier one Chinese panels such as Yingli or Trina for example then I see no reason why you would not get good long life performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 (edited) Good on you for looking at self install, remove the installation element and as you point out PV performance is being seriously under appreciated atm, it is almost as if our utility companies have seen the success in Germany and decided that they do not want to relinquish their profits without a fight. Like many things you get what you pay for in terms of build quality but the cells are largely the same and we are currently finding the performance of Chinese vs other panels is that they are performing equally as well. This may not last but if you stick with the better quality tier one Chinese panels such as Yingli or Trina for example then I see no reason why you would not get good long life performance. Thanks for tips on better Chinese cells. Renesola OK? Also given the choice which inverter manufacturer would you go for? Sorry for picking your brain/skills/business on this one ;-). Edited January 30, 2013 by OnlyMe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 £6k for 4kwp (full system?) seemd pretty good price but without FIT, it only pays back if there is heavy electricity usage in the house (electrical cooker, people in most days). The return is normally about £200 worth of electricity, so that is still forever without FIT as excess electricity cannot be economically stored at the moment. With FIT, this seemed sensible though, £6k, annual payback around £900, around 7 years payback, which is actually better than those system installed just before the FIT cut in % term (although this only last for 20 rather than 25 years now) So, can't really see how this will be economical without subsidy in UK (will obviously work well in countries with plenty of sun like Spain. I agree the storage side of things is the big inhibitor to solar PV achieving 8 year payback without a FIT for many domestic situations. A local potato store I know of with a 366kWp system on the roof has consumed all power on site, there are some excellent applications in the commercial environment, and given we still have the FIT the payback can be nearer 5 years when you take into account no VAT and capital allowances. Typically a home will only use 30-40% of the energy generated by a 4kWp PV system if no effort is made, but install a smaller system and that figure increases. A 2kWp system could see 50-60% consumed on site with no effort. For our customers with a 4kWp system we are using an intelligent Immersion controller to allow people to intelligently divert all spare PV power to the hot water tank, it can divert as little as 50 watts and for 9 months of the year this can provide virtually all the hot water requirements. For someone off the Nat gas grid this can make a huge difference to Oil or LPG consumption. Also more and more devises are coming online that will allow a greater use of the power through intelligent power management systems that controls devises around the home making better use of the PV power generated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I agree the storage side of things is the big inhibitor to solar PV achieving 8 year payback without a FIT for many domestic situations. A local potato store I know of with a 366kWp system on the roof has consumed all power on site, there are some excellent applications in the commercial environment, and given we still have the FIT the payback can be nearer 5 years when you take into account no VAT and capital allowances. Typically a home will only use 30-40% of the energy generated by a 4kWp PV system if no effort is made, but install a smaller system and that figure increases. A 2kWp system could see 50-60% consumed on site with no effort. For our customers with a 4kWp system we are using an intelligent Immersion controller to allow people to intelligently divert all spare PV power to the hot water tank, it can divert as little as 50 watts and for 9 months of the year this can provide virtually all the hot water requirements. For someone off the Nat gas grid this can make a huge difference to Oil or LPG consumption. Also more and more devises are coming online that will allow a greater use of the power through intelligent power management systems that controls devises around the home making better use of the PV power generated. Daytime use and the trick of using spare power to heat immersion is what would make it sensible for me. That and maybe a little bit of storage for ancillary stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Thanks for tips on better Chinese cells. Renesola OK? Also given the choice which inverter manufacturer would you go for? Sorry for picking your brain/skills/business on this one ;-). I have not used Renesola but there are one of the panels stocked by the UK's largest wholesaler and they claim to vet the products they sell, not heard anything negative about them. For a single string system we favor the Steca Grid 3600 http://www.steca.com/index.php?StecaGrid_3000_3600_en. It is German made is very efficient and well priced. If you are splitting the strings we are using the Power One atm due to performance and pricing. Two years ago SMA were the most regularly quoted inverted but they are pricey in the current environment but the build quality is great. These are all grid connect inverters and given you are self installing I suspect you are not going to connect to the grid (will require electrical qualifications and notification to the DNO) You could look at Nedap http://www.nedap.com/technology-that-matters/for-energy/ which allows off grid use and can also divert spare power to batteries for use at night. With the savings made by self install it may be worth looking at adding batteries. If you are not a qualified electrician you will need to work with one if you do go ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 (edited) Solar is an incredible investment at current prices, in fact I think the next few weeks are likely to be the best time ever to invest in Solar PV. It will be a short window because we are already being warned of impending price rises in equipment with the Euro strengthening against the pound. Also possibly as early as March the EU may impose anti dumping taxes on Chinese panels. Combine this with the last of the dumping of panels from wholesalers that went bust last year and it is quite possible we have seen the last of the deflation for solar PV. The Chinese have been subsidising Solar PV by billions and we have benefited from massive falls in panel prices. Some panels we were using 3 years ago are 1/3 of the price I can get them today. The prices we are currently quoting at would lead to a 12% return and 8 year payback WITHOUT A FEED IN TARIFF based on a good quality £6k 4kWp system, south facing roof in SW and using all the energy produced in the home. With the FIT 6 year payback is achievable with the scheme running for 20 years. Returns are better than in the boom two years ago but most people think solar is dead.... what a great idea; only one question; there was almost no sunshine last week; what is going to provide electricity then ??? Edited January 30, 2013 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 what a great idea; only one question; there was almost no sunshine last week; what is going to provide electricity then ??? The grid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 (edited) I have not used Renesola but there are one of the panels stocked by the UK's largest wholesaler and they claim to vet the products they sell, not heard anything negative about them. For a single string system we favor the Steca Grid 3600 http://www.steca.com/index.php?StecaGrid_3000_3600_en. It is German made is very efficient and well priced. If you are splitting the strings we are using the Power One atm due to performance and pricing. Two years ago SMA were the most regularly quoted inverted but they are pricey in the current environment but the build quality is great. These are all grid connect inverters and given you are self installing I suspect you are not going to connect to the grid (will require electrical qualifications and notification to the DNO) You could look at Nedap http://www.nedap.com/technology-that-matters/for-energy/ which allows off grid use and can also divert spare power to batteries for use at night. With the savings made by self install it may be worth looking at adding batteries. If you are not a qualified electrician you will need to work with one if you do go ahead. Fully off grid would be overkill under the circumtances, so on-grid most likely. Have 16th edition and I&T but not registered, have somebody that could sign off. Interesting link for the battery backup - just need a rush of battery manufacturers knocking the hell of out battery pricing ;-) Then the electric car! Actually use that as the dump. Edited January 30, 2013 by OnlyMe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ayatollah Buggeri Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 just need a rush of battery manufacturers knocking the hell of out battery pricing ;-) Boeing might be able to help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The grid? well if we follow your advice and put these panels on every house, there will be almost no demand for the normal electricity (from the grid) so the power stations will close down what then if there is a cloudy week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Fully off grid would be overkill under the circumtances, so on-grid most likely. Have 16th edition and I&T but not registered, have somebody that could sign off. Interesting link for the battery backup - just need a rush of battery manufacturers knocking the hell of out battery pricing ;-) Then the electric car! Actually use that as the dump. Sounds like you are well placed to get the project going. I love the idea of the electric car becoming the home storage device, Nissan already has a car in Japan that you can power the house with should the grid go down. Charging the car in the day with PV and using some of the power at night is really appealing, only a matter of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 well if we follow your advice and put these panels on every house, there will be almost no demand for the normal electricity (from the grid) so the power stations will close down what then if there is a cloudy week? Is every house suitable for solar PV? PV would only compliment other energy sources (looks like the current government is going for gas that can be ramped up very quickly to cover demand) and is far from our energy solution. From a purely selfish point of view PV has a lot to offer individuals in the right circumstances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redgenieuk Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I think solar is a great technology. The government should relax the rules and allow the installation of more panels on current fit rates. The problem being is that if you have a current FiT plan and add more panels you revert to the new rates - not economical at all if you are on the old ones. Thereby meaning the people able to invest will invest in power generation up to their maximum capacity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosh Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Just designing the extention on my house and have made provisions with the architect for Solar panels. Where are you based Confounded?... Where can I get a guide to solar for idiots? I need to start getting my nut around it all. I have the opportunity to design a really energy efficient house and really want to get it right. Some good info on here. Bosh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I have not used Renesola but there are one of the panels stocked by the UK's largest wholesaler and they claim to vet the products they sell, not heard anything negative about them. For a single string system we favor the Steca Grid 3600 http://www.steca.com/index.php?StecaGrid_3000_3600_en. It is German made is very efficient and well priced. If you are splitting the strings we are using the Power One atm due to performance and pricing. Two years ago SMA were the most regularly quoted inverted but they are pricey in the current environment but the build quality is great. These are all grid connect inverters and given you are self installing I suspect you are not going to connect to the grid (will require electrical qualifications and notification to the DNO) You could look at Nedap http://www.nedap.com/technology-that-matters/for-energy/ which allows off grid use and can also divert spare power to batteries for use at night. With the savings made by self install it may be worth looking at adding batteries. If you are not a qualified electrician you will need to work with one if you do go ahead. Great posts. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Just designing the extention on my house and have made provisions with the architect for Solar panels. Where are you based Confounded?... Where can I get a guide to solar for idiots? I need to start getting my nut around it all. I have the opportunity to design a really energy efficient house and really want to get it right. Some good info on here. Bosh You are very likely to have a local installer within a few miles of where you live, you can search by post code on the official MCS database http://www.microgenerationcertification.org/consumers/installer-search Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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